One type of article that I always find comical/worthless is those that start with “If the season ended today…,” so…

If the season ended today, the Orioles, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Padres would be in the playoffs with the winner of a 1-game playoff between the White Sox and Royals joining them. Out of those eight teams, only the Angels and Brewers were considered strong playoff contenders just a week ago. So what’s my point? Discard most of what you’ve seen so far this baseball season. 96% of the season has yet to be played. Unless your favorite team is the Pirates, Astros, or Giants, don’t give up yet. If your favorite team is the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Marlins, or Nationals, enjoy being near the top of the standings, but it’s probably not going to last long. If you drafted Matt Holliday or Alfonso Soriano, don’t worry because they’ll turn it around before long. If you drafted Cliff Floyd or David Murphy, first, why’d you do that and second, congratulations, everything’s downhill from here. When evaluating your team right now, remember that the last few years tell you more than the first week of 2008.

On to the other topic I wanted to talk about, I selected a fantasy team this morning, and I must tell you that my team’s not very good (Warning: not for the squeamish):

C Jason Kendall
1B Jose Vidro
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
LF Emil Brown
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Darin Erstad
P Livan Hernandez
P Kyle Kendrick

With that lineup, I’m hoping to score 580 runs, which might compete with the Giants, but my two pitchers are nothing compared to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

All kidding aside, the above team is my 2008 HACKING MASS entry. In HACKING MASS, the goal is to select players that will be bad but will remain in their team’s lineup/rotation. My 2007 team finished 20th out of 1322 entries, but due to 6 of those players no longer being in everyday lineups or rotations, none of my 2008 picks were on my 2007 team.

Looking at my team, it may look like I’m picking on the Astros (2 current and 2 former) and Twins (4 current), but it wasn’t intentional. Other than that, I see two picks that might be controversial: Darin Erstad and Kyle Kendrick. For Erstad, it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get enough plate appearances to do well in this contest, but I’ve got a feeling that his “baseball guy” reputation will get him the necessary playing time. On the other hand, Kendrick is coming off a 10-4 2007 season with a 3.87 ERA. What stands out for me is the fact that he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings, a measly 3.64 K/9. Among pitchers with 100+ IP, only Steve Trachsel, Aaron Cook, Mike Bacsik, and Zach Duke had lower strikeout rates. Other pitchers below 4 K/9 are Brad Thompson, Chris Sampson, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva. Other than Cook and Hernandez, that’s a collection of back-of-the-rotation starters, and it’s arguable that Livan should be a back-of-the-rotation starter as well. Why did I pick Hernandez and Kendrick out of this group? Although none are expected to be very good, Hernandez and Kendrick are the most likely to stay in the majors all season.

Coming into 2007, the Chicago Cubs were a bit of a mystery. After finishing 66-96 in 2006, the Chicago Cubs committed $291M to free agents in the offseason. While many of the contracts were questioned, how the team would perform in ’07 was also questioned. After a division title and short-lived playoff run, the Cubs are again a mystery heading into the offseason. The team is slated to be sold this offseason, and it is unknown how the new ownership will handle the team. Given the players under contract for next year, they should be back in contention for the Central once again.

Strengths

Although Derrek Lee has not regained (and probably never will regain) the power stroke that led to his 46-homer 2005 season, he is still an asset at first base. Joining him in the lineup are third baseman Aramis Ramirez and outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Soriano will be a significant liability towards the back-end of that contract, but for 2008, he’s still a force in that lineup even if he’s ill-suited to the leadoff role (.337 OBP).

Out on the mound, the Cubs have a few very good pitchers. Carlos Zambrano struggled in the early-going (5.77 ERA in April), but he eventually got it going and finished with a 3.95 ERA over 216.1 innings. Left-handers Rich Hill and Ted Lilly were also successful in 2007 with very similar seasons. Hill went 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA, and Lilly beat him in both categories with 207 innings and a 3.83 ERA. They also reeled in Carlos Marmol’s electric arm, and he contributed with a dominant relief season. In 2006, Marmol walked 85 batters in 138.1 innings. This year, he only walked 47 in 110.1 innings. That’s 38 fewer walks in 28 fewer innings, while increasing his strikeout total from 127 to 144. He also didn’t just become less wild out of the strike zone; he made fewer mistakes in the strike zone. After giving up 14 HR in his 77.1 major league innings in 2006, he only gave up 3 in his 69.1 major league innings this year. Put it all together, and that’s how you go from a 6.08 ERA to a 1.43 ERA from one season to the next. He shouldn’t be counted on to be that dominant again next year, but his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of 2.68 is still pretty dominant.

Another strength going forward is the youth that is ####ing on the proverbial door to the majors. Lou Piniella gave the starting catcher’s job to Geovany Soto down the stretch, and it paid off. After a huge year at AAA in which he hit .353/.424/.652, Soto hit .389/.433/.667 in 60 major league plate appearances. With Jason Kendall a free agent, the 2008 job should be Soto’s to lose. He was joined in Iowa by Felix Pie (.362/.410/.563), Ronny Cedeno (.359/.422/.537), and Eric Patterson (.297/.362/.455). These numbers show that there isn’t much left for these young players to do in Iowa. If the new ownership is progressive, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pie and Cedeno gradually take over everyday jobs in Chicago at some point in 2008.

Concerns

If Jim Hendry wants to continue to benefit from their farm system, they must stop making guaranteed bad trades like giving up Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry for Steve Trachsel. Regardless of what they gave up, Trachsel is no longer a worthwhile addition to a contending team. When a 36 year old pitcher is walking more guys than he is striking out, what could a team possibly see left in his arm? As for the prospects given up, Cherry is a capable middle reliever and Moore is a major league-ready third baseman that should start in Baltimore next season.

Hidden by the stolen bases and gritty play on the field, Ryan Theriot couldn’t repeat his 2006 numbers this year. Capped off with a .202/.257/.263 September, Theriot only hit .266/.326/.346. Replacing him at shortstop with Ronny Cedeno could not only increase the offensive output of the position, it will give a boost to the pitching staff on defense. Theriot is probably best used in a utility role.

As for signing free agents, this offseason should not be as eventful as last year. The Cubs enter the offseason looking for an outfielder and a starting pitcher. The alternatives aren’t great, and the best solutions are probably already within the organization. Matt Murton can do more than hit lefties (.296/.365/.455 career hitter), but if they want to take advantage of his platoon numbers, they could bring back Cliff Floyd. Floyd has a mutual option on his contract, although it’s unclear how much that’s worth and he’s also considering retirement. If they go the platoon route, Murton has hit .326/.399/.510 against lefties over his career, and Floyd has hit .281/.368/.491 against righties over his career.

It has been rumored that Ryan Dempster could be moved back to the rotation after four years of relief work, which could free up Jason Marquis as a trade chip. A year removed from a 6.02 ERA with the Cardinals, I’m not sure why someone would be interested in trading for Marquis, but I’ll run with it. That would leave a rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Dempster, and another guy. That guy could be either Sean Marshall or Kevin Hart. Marshall has pitched well in the starting role this year with a 3.92 ERA over 103.1 major league innings. When combined with his 1.82 ERA over 24.2 AAA innings, he should be a logical choice for next year’s rotation. It will come down to how he pitches in less than a month’s work next spring, which isn’t very logical, so only time will tell who opens the season in the Chicago rotation.

Overall

As much as Cubs’ fans like to play the cursed card, the ship has been righted, and their path to a 2008 playoff appearance is clear. Their offseason problems aren’t really that big and can be easily solved. Down the road with the multi-year contracts getting rich and the players old, the organization will have problems, but for 2008, they look to be in pretty good shape.

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Wow, I got through a whole Cubs post without mentioning Kerry Wood or Mark Prior…Oops...By the way, Wood is a free agent and could be moving on.