Birk's Blog
by: birk
birk's posts about:
Chipper Jones  MLB > NL East > Atlanta Braves > Chipper Jones
more Chipper Jones posts
Page 1 of 1
Another One Bites the Dust: Atlanta Braves
Sep 27, 2007 | 8:35PM | report this

With tonight's loss to Philadelphia, the Atlanta Braves are officially eliminated from the playoffs. With Andruw Jones's disappointing season and the fact that the Braves employ 3/5 of a starting rotation, it's surprising they made it this far.

Strengths

Around the horn, the Braves have a strong set of infielders. Chipper Jones has once again proven that when he is on the field (I was going to say healthy, but even when playing, he's never healthy), he is still a great player. He was joined this year by Edgar Renteria, Kelly Johnson, and midseason acquisition Mark Teixeira. With the emergence of Yunel Escobar this season, there has been talk of Edgar Renteria being on the trade market, and given the holes that I will discuss later, John Schuerholz just might pursue that option.

Out in the outfield, Matt Diaz, Willie Harris, and Jeff Francoeur have had pretty good seasons. Diaz and Harris have been a great platoon in left, and Francoeur is proving that talent and age truly do trump poor plate discipline over time. Diaz has hit .356/.384/.580 against lefties, and Harris has hit .291/.370/.428 against righties. Meanwhile, Francoeur has been great defensively and is learning to manage the strike zone offensively. After only 23 walks in 2006, Francoeur has walked 41 times this year at 23. He's lost some of his power stroke, but again, he's only 23 so he should figure things out. Unfortunately, the Braves don't have an easy replacement for Andruw Jones, which means they'll need to re-sign him, sign one of the other free agent center fielders (Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand), or pick one up in a trade.

Behind the plate, Brian McCann has regressed from his tremendous 2006 season, but it is very rare for a catcher to have back-to-back .333/.388/.572 while playing well defensively. His .272/.322/.456 is certainly nothing to sneeze at from your backstop.

Pitching to McCann, the Braves have seen #1 seasons from both John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. They should both be in the NL Cy Young race, but since their teams weren't good enough to make the playoffs, they won't get enough votes to win (nor should they, Jake Peavy should be the runaway winner). As a #3 starter, 25 year old Chuck James has done well.

Weaknesses

Aside from the center field problem that everyone knows about, the Braves need .... pitching help? A few years ago, that would have been unheard of. Although they have Smoltz and Hudson at the front of the rotation and Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan doing good work out in the pen, the Braves need to fix the back of the rotation and the rest of the bullpen. Mike Gonzalez won't be back from Tommy John surgery until midseason, and Octavio Dotel has been horrible since coming over to the NL. Dotel has a player option at $5.5M for 2008, but the club has the option to void it. The Braves aren't usually big players on the free agent market, but they might be able to find some answers on the trade market. Schuerholz has had a lot of success there.

Overall

The Atlanta Braves have several pieces in place, but they still have some holes that need fixing. If they fail to keep or replace Andruw Jones in center field, that could be a problem in terms of putting runs on the board and keeping them off. The NL East will continue to be a tough place to compete, but the Braves are no stranger to the top of the division. I don't expect 2008 to be their year, but it wouldn't surprise me either.

2 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Atlanta Braves, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur, John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Chuck James, Jake Peavy, Mike Gonzalez, Octavio Dotel, Edgar Renteria, Yunel Escobar, Matt Diaz, Willie Harris, Peter Moylan, Rafael Soriano, Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson
 
My NL All-Stars
Jul 04, 2007 | 11:30AM | report this

Following up my AL All-Star piece, I'm moving over to the senior circuit. Again, starters are marked with an asterisk.

Catcher
*Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves

First Base
*Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Dmitri Young, Washington Nationals

Second Base
*Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Third Base
*Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
David Wright, New York Mets
Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Shortstop
*Jose Reyes, New York Mets
Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves

Outfield
*Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
*Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
*Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
Carlos Beltran, New York Mets

Starting Pitchers
*Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers
Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros
Chris Young, San Diego Padres
John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves
Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers
Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates
Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers
Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves
John Maine, New York Mets

Relief Pitchers
Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers
Billy Wagner, New York Mets


Guys Selected due to 1 Player per Team Rule
Dmitri Young is the only player I had to select due to the 1 player per team rule, but I did choose from Orlando Hudson instead of either Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson because I needed a Diamondback.

Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco
3B Chipper Jones
SS Hanley Ramirez
SS Edgar Renteria
OF Hunter Pence
SP Roy Oswalt
SP Chris Young
SP Ian Snell
SP Derek Lowe
SP Tim Hudson
SP John Maine

There are several guys here with very strong cases that they should be on the All-Star Team: Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Young. To make room, I'd remove Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, the deposed Brian Fuentes, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Cordero, which also makes room for Ian Snell to be the Pirate representative.

All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team
None, fans did a pretty good job here, although I don't understand how Albert Pujols isn't the starting 1B. He has been arguably the best player in baseball for the last six seasons. Plus, he has nearly matched Prince's OPS even after his slow start and Prince's fast start.

Final Vote
Two of my players from the "Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco" are eligible for the final vote: Roy Oswalt and Chris Young. With Oswalt on his way to his 4th great season in a row, it's a no-brainer that he gets my vote.

6 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Roy Oswalt, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young, Freddy Sanchez, JJ Hardy, Brian Fuentes, Cole Hamels, Francisco Cordero, Dmitri Young, Orlando Hudson, Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson, MLB, All Star Team
 
Fantasy Rankings: Third Baseman
Mar 08, 2007 | 3:41PM | report this

Replacement Level
83 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG

First Tier
1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.

2. David Wright, New York Mets
Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.

5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.

Second Tier
6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.

7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.

8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks
The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.

9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.

Third Tier
10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.

Fourth Tier
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox
14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics
15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers
16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres

If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.

Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.


Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.
6 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Gordon, Chad Tracy, Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, Edwin Encarnacion, Joe Crede, Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock, Akinori Iwamura, Kevin Kouzmanoff
 
« Continue reading Birk's Blog
Page 1 of 1
ABOUT ME


birk
This is baseball. Let's have some fun. Recommended Websites: MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
Time stamping is done in Pacific Time.