With tonight's loss to Philadelphia, the Atlanta Braves are officially eliminated from the playoffs. With Andruw Jones's disappointing season and the fact that the Braves employ 3/5 of a starting rotation, it's surprising they made it this far.
Strengths
Around the horn, the Braves have a strong set of infielders. Chipper Jones has once again proven that when he is on the field (I was going to say healthy, but even when playing, he's never healthy), he is still a great player. He was joined this year by Edgar Renteria, Kelly Johnson, and midseason acquisition Mark Teixeira. With the emergence of Yunel Escobar this season, there has been talk of Edgar Renteria being on the trade market, and given the holes that I will discuss later, John Schuerholz just might pursue that option.
Out in the outfield, Matt Diaz, Willie Harris, and Jeff Francoeur have had pretty good seasons. Diaz and Harris have been a great platoon in left, and Francoeur is proving that talent and age truly do trump poor plate discipline over time. Diaz has hit .356/.384/.580 against lefties, and Harris has hit .291/.370/.428 against righties. Meanwhile, Francoeur has been great defensively and is learning to manage the strike zone offensively. After only 23 walks in 2006, Francoeur has walked 41 times this year at 23. He's lost some of his power stroke, but again, he's only 23 so he should figure things out. Unfortunately, the Braves don't have an easy replacement for Andruw Jones, which means they'll need to re-sign him, sign one of the other free agent center fielders (Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand), or pick one up in a trade.
Behind the plate, Brian McCann has regressed from his tremendous 2006 season, but it is very rare for a catcher to have back-to-back .333/.388/.572 while playing well defensively. His .272/.322/.456 is certainly nothing to sneeze at from your backstop.
Pitching to McCann, the Braves have seen #1 seasons from both John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. They should both be in the NL Cy Young race, but since their teams weren't good enough to make the playoffs, they won't get enough votes to win (nor should they, Jake Peavy should be the runaway winner). As a #3 starter, 25 year old Chuck James has done well.
Weaknesses
Aside from the center field problem that everyone knows about, the Braves need .... pitching help? A few years ago, that would have been unheard of. Although they have Smoltz and Hudson at the front of the rotation and Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan doing good work out in the pen, the Braves need to fix the back of the rotation and the rest of the bullpen. Mike Gonzalez won't be back from Tommy John surgery until midseason, and Octavio Dotel has been horrible since coming over to the NL. Dotel has a player option at $5.5M for 2008, but the club has the option to void it. The Braves aren't usually big players on the free agent market, but they might be able to find some answers on the trade market. Schuerholz has had a lot of success there.
Overall
The Atlanta Braves have several pieces in place, but they still have some holes that need fixing. If they fail to keep or replace Andruw Jones in center field, that could be a problem in terms of putting runs on the board and keeping them off. The NL East will continue to be a tough place to compete, but the Braves are no stranger to the top of the division. I don't expect 2008 to be their year, but it wouldn't surprise me either.
Following up my AL All-Star piece, I'm moving over to the senior circuit. Again, starters are marked with an asterisk.
Catcher *Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
First Base *Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers Dmitri Young, Washington Nationals
Second Base *Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
Third Base *Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins David Wright, New York Mets Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Shortstop *Jose Reyes, New York Mets Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins Edgar Renteria, Atlanta Braves
Outfield *Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants *Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies *Ken Griffey, Jr., Cincinnati Reds Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs Hunter Pence, Houston Astros Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
Starting Pitchers *Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros Chris Young, San Diego Padres John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves John Maine, New York Mets
Relief Pitchers Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers Billy Wagner, New York Mets
Guys Selected due to 1 Player per Team Rule Dmitri Young is the only player I had to select due to the 1 player per team rule, but I did choose from Orlando Hudson instead of either Dan Uggla and Kelly Johnson because I needed a Diamondback.
Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco 3B Chipper Jones SS Hanley Ramirez SS Edgar Renteria OF Hunter Pence SP Roy Oswalt SP Chris Young SP Ian Snell SP Derek Lowe SP Tim Hudson SP John Maine
There are several guys here with very strong cases that they should be on the All-Star Team: Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Young. To make room, I'd remove Freddy Sanchez, J.J. Hardy, the deposed Brian Fuentes, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Cordero, which also makes room for Ian Snell to be the Pirate representative.
All-Star Starters that Aren't on My Team None, fans did a pretty good job here, although I don't understand how Albert Pujols isn't the starting 1B. He has been arguably the best player in baseball for the last six seasons. Plus, he has nearly matched Prince's OPS even after his slow start and Prince's fast start.
Final Vote Two of my players from the "Guys on My All-Star Team that Aren't Going to San Francisco" are eligible for the final vote: Roy Oswalt and Chris Young. With Oswalt on his way to his 4th great season in a row, it's a no-brainer that he gets my vote.
First Tier 1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.
2. David Wright, New York Mets Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.
3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.
4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.
5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.
Second Tier 6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.
7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.
8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.
9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.
Third Tier 10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals 11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves
Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.
Fourth Tier 12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds 13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox 14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics 15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers 16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres
If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.
Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.
Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
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