On the surface, the Chicago White Sox appear to be a team with no easily-upgraded positions. That would seem to be a good thing, but going into the trade deadline only up 2.5 games, it isn't. A team without easily-upgraded spots can't make moves to counter moves made by the teams chasing them. In essence, the competition can get better, but you can't. Although Kenny Williams doesn't seem likely to make a move, I see one spot that needs fixing.

Alexei Ramirez appears to be doing all right. He’s hitting .294/.318/.439 on the season. The .318 OBP is definitely not impressive, but it also shows me something worse. With only six walks on the year, his plate discipline is terrible and might be a sign that he needs some time in the minors. By swinging at 43% of pitches out of the strike zone, he swings at more pitches out of the zone than everyone except Vladimir Guerrero. While pitchers know that Vladimir will swing out of the zone and compensate by throwing only 40% of their pitches in the strike zone, they haven’t figured that out about Ramirez...yet. A full 54% of pitches Ramirez sees are in the strike zone. Let me re-phrase. Although Ramirez swings at more balls than all but 1 player, he sees more strikes than all but 17 players. Eventually, the opposition will catch on and throw fewer strikes. If Ramirez doesn’t show more discipline, his average is going to plummet quickly. When that happens, the White Sox will find that they need a better 2B. They probably don’t have what it takes to get Brian Roberts, but Mark Grudzielanek and Ray Durham would be good targets.

On the flip side, Paul Konerko was simply not performing before he went on the DL with a strained left oblique. Konerko has hit .215/.322/.368 on the season mostly due to a measly .232 BABIP. Based on his 20.3% line drive rate, his BABIP should be closer to .323. That gives reason to believe that he should be better when he returns. If he isn’t, then the White Sox will have something of an albatross on hand as Konerko’s due $12M in both 2009 and 2010.

Holes to Fill: 2B

Trade Bait: prospects although most of their offseason top prospects now play in the Oakland system

If you have any interest in the Giants, Tim Lincecum, pitching mechanics, pitching injuries, or great baseball articles, be sure to check out Tom Verducci's How Tiny Tim Became a Pitching Giant. It's a great article and certainly qualifies as a must-read.

This past Wednesday, Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle and Joey Votto hit three home runs. On SportsCenter’s Top Plays, Votto’s performance ranked 10th while Gomez’s performance ranked 4th. That got me thinking. How do they rank their top plays? Obviously, Gomez’s feat was rarer, but hitting three home runs is more valuable than hitting for the cycle.

What about when you put it in the context of their games? Votto’s first home run came in a scoreless game to lead off the bottom of the second. He led off the third with a walk and stole second, but the score was already 5-0. After Brandon Phillips led off the fifth with a homer to make it 6-0, Votto hit his second home run. Then in the sixth with two outs and Phillips on first, Votto hit his third to make it 9-0. He would later ground out to short to lead off the eighth. Since the first home run came in a scoreless game, it obviously impacted the game. In his next plate appearance, the score was already 5-0, so his performance from that point on had little impact on the outcome of the game.

In Gomez’s case, he homered to lead off the game. He struck out for the second out in the third inning of a 1-0 game. He next came to the plate with two outs and a runner on second in the fifth, and subsequently drove in the second run of the game. In the next inning, Gomez would again come to the plate with a runner on second and two outs. He responded with an RBI double to center to make it 7-0. He would later single to lead off the ninth to complete the cycle. His last two ABs came with six- and seven-run leads, but his home run and triple greatly impacted the game.

By placing their performances in the context of their games, it can be seen that Carlos Gomez had a much greater impact on the Twins’ victory than Joey Votto had on the Reds’ victory. Based on this, I decided that I’d start to post the top ten most important plays of the week. I chose the top ten plays using Win Probability Added, which is the change in win expectancy during the play. Without further ado:

1. Mike Lamb 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
2. Rickie Weeks 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
3. David Dellucci 3-R HR in the 8th
4. Chris Iannetta 2-R 3B in the 8th
5. Carlos Lee 2-R 2B in the 8th (2:30 into video)
6. Mark Ellis Walk-off HR in the 10th
7. Pablo Ozuna Bases Loaded Game-Ending GIDP in the 9th
8. Steve Holm 2-R HR in the 7th (first career HR)
9. Carl Crawford 3-R HR in the 6th
10. Ryan Ludwick 2-R 1B in the 9th

A couple of things to note:

1. All but the DP came with two outs in the inning.
2. Only a couple of the top ten plays occurred prior to the 8th inning.

Thanks to Fan Graphs for the WPA stats and thanks to MLB.com for the links to the videos.

With the month of April coming to a close, we will be down to 5 months of regular season baseball. This is also a time of the year where a lot of people are starting to completely buy into player’s statistics, so in that vein, I’m going to take a look at starting pitchers to see who should be targeted in fantasy baseball leagues and who should be shopped.

Methodology

I’m only looking at pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title at this point, using the data available at FanGraphs. For the target list, I’m going to list all pitchers with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of less than 4 and a better FIP than ERA. For the shop list, I’m going to list all pitchers with an ERA of less than 3 and a worse FIP than ERA. The idea is that a pitcher’s ERA will more than likely move back towards his FIP as the season progresses.

Pitchers to Target

I'm sorry about the width of this table. I followed the same procedure as the one below, but for some reason, this one's width won't reduce to the proper size. If you scroll over to the last column of the table, you’ll see just how much each pitcher has underperformed his underlying peripherals. From the rest of the guys in the table, Javier Vazquez and Ian Snell stand out.

Coming off a 15-win season with a 3.74 ERA, Vazquez had problems in his first and fifth starts. In his first start, he only went 5 innings, giving up 4 ER with 6 K. In his last start, he went 5.1 innings, giving up 6 ER with 3 K. The two bad games came against the Yankees and Indians. In between his bad outings, he threw 20.1 innings with a 2.21 ERA, 3 wins, and 21 strikeouts. However, he’s not going to have a 2.32 ERA the rest of the way either. For a guy that has averaged 26 HR allowed in Chicago, Vazquez has yet to give up a HR in 2008. That’s not going to continue, and although he should continue to rack up the strikeouts, his ERA probably won’t fall much lower than its current level, so I wouldn’t consider him a must-target pitcher.

Similarly, Snell has also not been giving up the home runs so far this year. Snell gave up one to Brian McCann on Opening Day but hasn’t since. He doesn’t have any bad outings like Vazquez, but he also only has one good outing. On April 6, Snell struck out 10 Marlins while only giving up 1 ER over 6 innings. Also similar to Vazquez, I wouldn’t call Snell a must-target pitcher. He will probably lower his ERA a little bit, but he’ll pretty much stay on his current pace.

Instead of looking to acquire one of the big-name pitchers from the list, I’d look to pick up some of these guys as free agents (if possible). Depending on your league setup, Nick Blackburn, #### Bonser, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Sanchez, and Jair Jurrjens might be available, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Pitchers to Shop

After failing to find any quality pitchers to target, let’s see if there are any pitchers you should be looking to trade away while their value is at its peak.

This list is considerably longer, but it also includes guys I’d be much more willing to make a move on than the previous list. Several of these guys are the type you’ll want to hold onto unless you are offered more than full value for (such as Peavy, Webb, etc.), so I’ll just pick out a few guys that I think should be offered to the gullible owner in your league.

Scott Olsen has only given up one run in his last three starts while going 7+ innings each time. After a closer look, you start to wonder how it’s being done. In the first game of the streak, he struck out three Braves, gave up 5 hits, and walked no one. In the second game, he struck out three Nationals, gave up 3 hits, including a HR to Hanley Ramirez, and walked 2. In his last outing, he struck out zero, gave up 4 hits, and walked 5. It is a rare outing where you walk 5 guys and give up no runs. In those three outings, he walked one more than he struck out (6). That’s not a good sign for the future, and now is a good time to cash out.

Like Olsen, Shawn Chacon has walked as many guys as he’s struck out this season. He is also coming off an outing where he got lucky. In 7 innings against the Cardinals, Chacon struck out 3, walked 6, and allowed 5 hits. That amounted to 2 runs, 1 earned. In addition to his inability to keep guys off the bases via the walk, Chacon has a lengthy track record of not being that good. If you can get somebody to buy high on Chacon, give yourself a pat on the back.

Unlike Olsen and Chacon, Carlos Silva has never been one to walk too many guys in a season. In his best season, he walked 9 guys in 188.1 IP. However, he has also never struck out more than 89 guys in one season. When you rely on your defense as much as Silva does, it’s hard to post a sub-4.00 ERA. For that reason, you can expect Silva’s ERA to jump up as the season progresses. When you combine that with the fact that Silva won’t be helping you in the K category anytime soon, you’ll want to look to put this guy on someone else’s roster before reality sets in.

If you drafted Cliff Lee, congratulations, you’ve gotten a four-game start to the season that is far beyond any reasonable expectations for any starting pitcher (Johan Santana included). The good news is that his peripherals are outstanding (29:2 K/BB ratio), but there’s nothing in his track record that suggests he’ll end up with a sub-3.50 ERA. Lee’s season statistics will definitely command interest on the trade market, and although you won’t get full value for those statistics, you should get considerably more in trade than you can expect from Lee the rest of the way.

Ryan Dempster returned to the starting rotation for the first time in 5 years, and although he could pitch as well as Braden Looper did last year, I wouldn’t expect it. In his last two years as a starter (2002 and 2003), Dempster had ERAs of 5.38 and 6.54. Over the last two years, he racked up 52 saves, but also blew 12 (81% save rate) while posting a 4.76 ERA. Dempster could put a good season as a starter, but I don’t think it will happen and neither should you. Convince someone that he’s back to his Marlin ways and get what you can.

I hope you guys enjoyed this look at pitchers to target and pitchers to shop article. Over the next few months, I’ll probably post once a week, but I’m a little short on ideas. Last year, when I was writing the “Another One Bites the Dust” series, I planned to do that again this year with one per week, which would mean it would start next weekend. I have several reasons why I shouldn’t, but I’d like to hear what you think. If you have any thoughts on what you’d like me to write, put it in the comments and I’ll do my best to oblige. I don’t say this enough, but I truly appreciate all the feedback you give me.

One type of article that I always find comical/worthless is those that start with “If the season ended today…,” so…

If the season ended today, the Orioles, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Padres would be in the playoffs with the winner of a 1-game playoff between the White Sox and Royals joining them. Out of those eight teams, only the Angels and Brewers were considered strong playoff contenders just a week ago. So what’s my point? Discard most of what you’ve seen so far this baseball season. 96% of the season has yet to be played. Unless your favorite team is the Pirates, Astros, or Giants, don’t give up yet. If your favorite team is the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Marlins, or Nationals, enjoy being near the top of the standings, but it’s probably not going to last long. If you drafted Matt Holliday or Alfonso Soriano, don’t worry because they’ll turn it around before long. If you drafted Cliff Floyd or David Murphy, first, why’d you do that and second, congratulations, everything’s downhill from here. When evaluating your team right now, remember that the last few years tell you more than the first week of 2008.

On to the other topic I wanted to talk about, I selected a fantasy team this morning, and I must tell you that my team’s not very good (Warning: not for the squeamish):

C Jason Kendall
1B Jose Vidro
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
LF Emil Brown
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Darin Erstad
P Livan Hernandez
P Kyle Kendrick

With that lineup, I’m hoping to score 580 runs, which might compete with the Giants, but my two pitchers are nothing compared to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

All kidding aside, the above team is my 2008 HACKING MASS entry. In HACKING MASS, the goal is to select players that will be bad but will remain in their team’s lineup/rotation. My 2007 team finished 20th out of 1322 entries, but due to 6 of those players no longer being in everyday lineups or rotations, none of my 2008 picks were on my 2007 team.

Looking at my team, it may look like I’m picking on the Astros (2 current and 2 former) and Twins (4 current), but it wasn’t intentional. Other than that, I see two picks that might be controversial: Darin Erstad and Kyle Kendrick. For Erstad, it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get enough plate appearances to do well in this contest, but I’ve got a feeling that his “baseball guy” reputation will get him the necessary playing time. On the other hand, Kendrick is coming off a 10-4 2007 season with a 3.87 ERA. What stands out for me is the fact that he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings, a measly 3.64 K/9. Among pitchers with 100+ IP, only Steve Trachsel, Aaron Cook, Mike Bacsik, and Zach Duke had lower strikeout rates. Other pitchers below 4 K/9 are Brad Thompson, Chris Sampson, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva. Other than Cook and Hernandez, that’s a collection of back-of-the-rotation starters, and it’s arguable that Livan should be a back-of-the-rotation starter as well. Why did I pick Hernandez and Kendrick out of this group? Although none are expected to be very good, Hernandez and Kendrick are the most likely to stay in the majors all season.

When I started this series, I said, “With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale.” Ten days later, it has. Due to this, I plan on keeping things much shorter from now on.

Impact Shortstops to Be Traded

Michael Young would be here, but he has a no-trade clause in his contract. Can you believe that he’s scheduled to make $16M every year from 2009 to 2013?

Contenders Needing a Shortstop

As I mentioned in my last article about the second base market, the Cubs should go after Mark Ellis instead of Brian Roberts as has been rumored. Without making a move, their best options up the middle are Mark DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno. With Roberts, they could move DeRosa over to short, but I think a duo of Ellis at short and DeRosa at second would be a better solution. Whether or not Oakland will give up Ellis in a trade is a different story, but I think they should.

Next Year’s Free Agents

The Dodgers should try to extend Rafael Furcal. Sure, they’ve got a major-league shortstop in the minors with Chin-Lung Hu, but they’ve also got a second base spot opening up after the season with Jeff Kent’s free agency. One of them can move over to second, and Furcal is the type of guy worth an extension.

David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera are also free agents following the year, but none are worth worrying about before the season ends. Eckstein wasn’t worth a multi-year deal two months ago, and nothing’s changed since. The same can be said about Uribe three months ago. As for Cabrera, he’s a good player when he keeps his batting average up, but when it drops like it did in 2004 and 2005, he’s a below average shortstop. That’s not the type of guy that gets a new deal before his contract expires.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Obviously, Hanley Ramirez deserves a contract similar, yet more lucrative, than the 4-year, $23.5M contract Jose Reyes got in August 2006, but something tells me that the Florida Marlins aren’t about to fork out anything more than they have to pay him in 2008.

J.J. Hardy will be a free agent following the 2010 season, and he has exchanged arbitration figures with the Brewers ($3.05M/$2.4M) for this year. Until he proves that he can stay healthy and productive for consecutive seasons, I wouldn’t worry about locking up his future. If he can put together anything resembling his 2007 in 2008, it will be time to open the check book for a three-year deal.

Recap

Michael Young has a surprising amount of guaranteed money coming his way. The Cubs need to improve their shortstop, and Mark Ellis is the guy for the job. Rafael Furcal and Hanley Ramirez deserve a contract extension, but J.J. Hardy needs to prove himself one more time. David Eckstein, Juan Uribe, and Orlando Cabrera should all become free agents before they sign their next contract.