After a tremendous comeback to win the NL East, the Phillies were run over by the streaking Colorado Rockies. To their credit, they have quickly turned to offseason mode by re-signing Charlie Manuel as manager and buying out the options on Rod Barajas and Abraham Nunez’s contracts. With several holes to fill, Pat Gillick has his hands full going into 2008.

Strength

Three-fourths of the infield is the easiest strength to spot in Philadelphia. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, the club could keep plugging them in at first, second, and short through 2011 without even having to consider a long-term contract extension. Following that season, Howard will qualify for free agency for the first time, and Rollins’s contract will end (assuming the Phillies pick up his 2011 option at $8.5M). To balance out the offense, they’ll once again be joined by Pat Burrell out in left field. Despite his bashing by fans and media, Burrell has been consistently good the last three seasons. His OBP has been between .388 and .400, and his SLG has been between .502 and .504 over that period.

Playoff teams usually have an ace that leads the way on the pitching rubber, and the Phillies had that guy when Cole Hamels was healthy. Hamels pitched 183.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA. He was joined in the rotation at the beginning of the season by current, and future, closer Brett Myers. Myers pitched poorly in his three starts to begin the year, accumulating a 9.39 ERA over 15.1 innings, but can you really come to any conclusions over just three starts? The Phillies decided that they needed to fix their bullpen, so Myers moved to the pen. When Tom Gordon went down, Myers stepped into the closer’s role and pitched well. Since his conversion to relief work, Myers threw 53.1 innings and gave up only 17 earned runs for a 2.87 ERA. He did so while striking out 10.8 batters, walking 3.0, and giving up 0.7 HR per nine innings, which works out to a 2.79 FIP (nicely fits his actual ERA).

Concerns

Aaron Rowand is yet another data point for the idea that players perform better in contract years. Rowand beat his career averages (.286/.343/.462) in every single category by hitting .309/.374/.515. He is well-regarded for his defense as well. He enters the market along with fellow center fielders Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, and Mike Cameron. If the Phillies are unwilling to pony up the cash for one of the players, they could look internally. Shane Victorino is returning as are Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth. Either Victorino or Bourn could handle center field with the other handling right field against righties. Against lefties, Manuel should try to get Jayson Werth as many at bats as possible. Werth hit .375/.467/.591 against lefties this year and has hit them at a rate of .284/.378/.486 over his career.

The Phillies’ main concern is the pitching staff. In the rotation, Hamels will be joined by Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton. Moyer will be 45, Kendrick only struck out 49 guys in 121 major league innings, and Eaton gave up 30 HR and 71 walks in his 161.2 innings this season. All three are question marks, and there’s still one spot left to fill. Their departing free agent Kyle Lohse is quite possibly the best option on that particular market. The Phillies will need to turn to the trade market to address this need, but I’m not sure what they’ll be using to acquire other team’s talent. There isn’t much top-level talent in the system. Phillies’ management will need to get creative.

After (or before) the rotation gets fixed, Gillick will have to upgrade the bullpen. Former closer Tom Gordon will be back as will Ryan Madson. Madson strained his shoulder in late July, and it was rumored that he could’ve returned had the Phillies advanced to the NLCS. Other than those two and Brett Myers, there isn’t much good left to talk about returning from the 2007 pen. J.C. Romero is a free agent and has expressed a desire to return, but it’s questionable if his smoke and mirrors routine (1.24 K/BB in Philadelphia) will continue to fool hitters.

Overall

The Phillies have some work to do if they want to return to the top of the division, but so do the other NL East teams. With at least four years of their three great infielders and ace pitcher, the Phillies are positioned to be contenders for a while, but they need to fix their massive holes because they aren’t the only team positioned well in the NL East.

Replacement Level
82 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 14 SB, .282 AVG

First Tier
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
Runs unmatched by any other 2B, HR unmatched by any other 2B, and RBI unmatched by any other 2B all wrapped in one package. Hands down, top fantasy 2B.\

Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels
Unbelievable batting averages throughout the minors: .318, .368, .367, .384, .342, .369, plus he's developing some power to go with it.

Third Tier
3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
4. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
5. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
6. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
7. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
8. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles

Kinsler provides extra power for the position. Cano lacks the steals, but makes up for it with batting average. Hudson gets a few extra runs while sacrificing a few RBI. Durham's age and previous seasons makes 2006 scream fluke. If Weeks can stay healthy and play better defense, he can become one of the best second baseman over the next few years. Johnson doesn't qualify at second yet, but if he wins the job, he'll provide strong numbers at second base. Freel makes up for the power outage with monster stolen base numbers if he wins a starting outfield spot in Cincinnati. Roberts should put up numbers very similar to Freel.

Fourth Tier
11. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
12. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels
13. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates
14. Luis Castillo, Minnesota Twins
15. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
16. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
17. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

This group of players contain several guys that came out of nowhere last year to put up big numbers - Sanchez, Uggla, and Phillips - who will most likely come back down to earth. Iguchi has been consistently solid since coming over from Japan: 80 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG. Figgins provides major steals, covering up for his poor AVG and RBI total. Freddy Sanchez is the exact opposite in using his AVG to make up for his lack of steals. Castillo and Lugo are pretty similar with Castillo providing slightly better AVG and Lugo a few more home runs. Uggla provides a little more power than the rest of the guys in this tier, but his AVG brings him back to the pack. Phillips has streaky plate discipline, which can hurt his production, but he's still solid across the board.

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As always, bring on the comments.

*Brian Roberts was originally a member of the 4th tier, but I looked into it after JoshQPublic questioned his placement and moved him up into the 3rd tier.