Sitting 12 games back in the division and 14 games back in the wild card, the Washington Nationals should be sellers in this year’s trade market. Given their current roster and farm system, this is going to be a long rebuild. They could always thank Omar Minaya for that, although there were thoughts that the organization wouldn’t even exist the year after that trade. I’m going to set the target date for contention at 2011. Let’s run down the roster and see who should stay and who should go.

Core to Build Around

C Jesus Flores, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, LF Elijah Dukes, CF Lastings Milledge

Zimmerman’s last year under team control is 2011, so he’s a contract extension candidate a couple of years down the road. As a Rule 5 pick a year ago, Flores has five more years under team control while Dukes and Milledge are under team control through 2013. Even better, all four players are only 23 years old.

Possible Trade Chips

C Paul Lo Duca, 1B Dmitri Young, SS Cristian Guzman, RP Jon Rauch, RP Saul Rivera

Jon Rauch might seem like a strange name here, but he is eligible for free agency following the 2010 season. Given how outstanding Rauch has been this year filling in at closer and his age (29), his value is probably at its peak. Combined with the typical year-to-year volatility of RPs, now would be the right time to pull the trigger on a Jon Rauch trade.

Possible Trade Chips if They Can Prove They're Healthy and Productive

1B Nick Johnson, RF Austin Kearns, RP Chad Cordero

All three players should be back before the trade deadline. Hopefully, they can be productive enough to garner interest from another team. If not, the Nationals can always wait until the offseason or next season’s trade deadline to trade Johnson, Kearns, or Cordero as all three are signed through 2009.

Forget the playoffs, nobody thought the Nationals had a chance for 4th place. Using the numbers from Jim Baker's column from last Friday, the Nationals have a 72% chance at finishing ahead of the Marlins. Given the preseason talk, the Nationals could actually consider this a successful season. Many pundits were talking about a 110-loss season to come, but the Nationals have already won 65 games, which means that the number of losses stay in double digits.

The Good

Dmitri Young has been a pleasant surprise after being cut from the World Series-bound Detroit Tigers last September. Young has hit .327/.385/.503 after only managing a .250/.293/.407 line in 2006. Back in August, the Nationals did manage to acquire slugger Wily Mo Pena in a 3-team deal. I've always liked Wily Mo's power potential, but he's never gotten a real chance to develop. Due to his major league contract, he was forced to the big leagues at the tender age of 21 in 2003 and left to rot on the bench, hampering his development. Other than a minor league "rehab" assignment in July - most think he was never actually hurt - his only playing time came in September. After totaling 77 major league at bats from April through August, Wily Mo was given 88 at bats in September with an .854 OPS. Never more than a part-time regular, Wily Mo's highest AB total in the past five years is 336 in 2004. Now a National, Wily Mo has hit .273/.325/.558 in 22 games. Wily Mo lacks plate discipline, probably linked to his lack of development time, and it shines right through when looking at his career pinch hitting numbers versus his career starting numbers. As a pinch hitter, he has hit a mere .185/.214/.333, but as an outfielder, he has hit .262/.317/.483. That doesn't look very good, but if he learns even a sliver of plate discipline, that should be enough to salvage a wretched start to his major league career.

On the pitching side, their rotation has been surprisingly effective, and they have been supported by an adequate bullpen. Shawn Hill has led the way despite a midseason injury. Hill currently has a 2.87 ERA in 87.2 innings. Serving as the closer, Chad Cordero has also turned in a very nice season with a 3.00 ERA and 33 saves.

The Bad

John Patterson got hurt again, and after failed to attempts to rehab and return, he has opted for surgery to decompress the radial nerve in his right elbow. If anyone knows the seriousness of this procedure, please inform the rest of us. Last year's midseason trade has not turned out quite as well for the Nationals as everyone thought it would. Although Gary Majewski and Bill Bray haven't done much for the Reds, the same could be said for Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns. Lopez and Kearns have only hit .244/.307/.353 and .268/.351/.409, respectively. It should be interesting to see how all of these former Reds (Lopez, Kearns, Pena) turn out for former Red Jim Bowden.

Looking Forward

It's nearly guaranteed that the Nationals won't compete next year or probably the following year. I'm not sure what their goal year is, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was 2010 or 2011. It is going to take a while for them to rebuild the farm system that current Mets GM Omar Minaya ran barren when he was in charge in Montreal. It should be noted that it wasn't all his fault. If you were in charge of an organization that was headed for contraction, wouldn't you trade it all to try to win now? But I digress. It is good to see that the Nationals have a plan and have put it in motion, unlike some perennial bottom-dwellers. The Nationals should stick with the youth movement, avoid signing multi-year contracts with mediocre positions fillers that won't be there when they contend again (ahem, Dmitri Young and Ron Belliard), and be prepared to build around the young guys that make it to the big leagues in a few years. I wish them the best of luck through the arduous process of building the farm system while the major league team loses. This is a plan that is hard to stick to but should pay off in the end.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed, Rotisserie League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

I'm not going to make guesses at who will end up as closers where they are up in the air, so the rankings will have only a player if he is currently their team's closer.

Replacement Level
3 W, 12 SV, 51 K, 3.46 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

First Tier
1. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
2. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays
3. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Billy Wagner, New York Mets

Second Tier
5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
6. Huston Street, Oakland Athletics
7. Tom Gordon, Philadelphia Phillies
8. J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners
9. Trevor Hoffman, San Diego Padres
10. Chad Cordero, Washington Nationals
11. Francisco Cordero, Milwaukee Brewers
12. Eric Gagne, Texas Rangers
13. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox
14. Brian Fuentes, Colorado Rockies
15. Jose Valverde, Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Brad Lidge, Houston Astros

If you take Gagne, make sure to handcuff him with Akinori Otsuka. I thought about dropping Lidge down to the next tier, but his stuff is still very good. Is Albert Pujols really powerful enough to ruin a former top-notch closer?

Third Tier
17. Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles
18. Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals
19. Takashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers
20. Armando Benitez, San Francisco Giants
21. Todd Jones, Detroit Tigers

Handcuff Jonathan Broxton to Saito. I would say the same for Joel Zumaya and Jones, but Fernando Rodney is still in Detroit as well.

Fourth Tier
22. Salomon Torres, Pittsburgh Pirates
23. Joe Borowski, Cleveland Indians
24. Bob Wickman, Atlanta Braves
25. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs
26. Octavio Dotel, Kansas City Royals

If Wickman falters, keep an eye on who gets tapped to take his place. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are both great pitchers. Will they go to Gonzalez because he has closer experience, or Soriano because Gonzalez can be used to match up with lefties in the earlier innings?