Last Sunday, I wrote about the flawed All-Star selection process. Before getting into today’s topic, I want to respond to a few comments from last week. First, I used Joe Crede as the example because Alex Rodriguez should have been a unanimous selection at 3B. For Crede to be elected because some players couldn’t see that Rodriguez is the best AL 3B is ridiculous. I’ll admit that Jason Varitek would have been a better example than Crede, but Rodriguez was a better example than Joe Mauer.

The second issue is with the start of All-Star balloting. I have no problems with voting starting at the beginning of May. The point brought up against it was that Carlos Quentin wasn’t on the ballot because he hadn’t stepped in as starter yet. Actually, that’s false. Quentin has been starting since April 3rd. Instead of listing Quentin on the ballot, Jerry Owens was listed, and he hasn’t even had a single plate appearance in 2008. This isn’t really an issue of when the voting starts; it’s an issue of “how did MLB end up listing Jerry Owens on the ballot without a single plate appearance?”

The last issue is that several of the comments were complaining about the fan vote with many of you suggesting that the players and managers have a better idea of who should be on the All-Star team. That is the main topic of this post.

Instead of looking directly at the players the fans voted in, I decided to look at the rosters as a whole and find the players that don’t belong objectively. When people choose All-Stars, there are two separate paths that are usually used. The first is the most common, and that is to select the All-Stars based completely on the first half of the season. The second is the one I generally use, and that is to pick the players that are most likely to put together the best season, which takes into account both their season-to-date stats and expectations on whether or not they’re likely to keep it up. For example, Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun are performing similarly, but Braun would get my vote well before Ludwick would. Back to the objective process, I wanted to incorporate both of those selection methods, so using the players’ WARP totals from 2005 to 2008 (minor league numbers included), I computed the average 2008 WARP and the average 2005-to-2008 WARP for the All-Stars. I have listed all of the players that have WARP totals worse than one standard deviation below average in either category.

Poor All-Star Selections by 2008 WARP: Joe Crede, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Varitek, Billy Wagner

Poor All-Star Selections by 2005-to-2008 WARP: Justin Duchscherer, Josh Hamilton, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Dioner Navarro, Joakim Soria, Edinson Volquez, Kerry Wood

Poor All-Selections by Both Methods: Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, George Sherrill, Brian Wilson

Let’s look at how those players made the All-Star team, starting with those selected by the fans.

Poor Fan Selections: Josh Hamilton, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano (4 out of their 17 selections, or 23.5%)

Poor Player Selections: Joe Crede, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Carlos Quentin, Joakim Soria, Jason Varitek, Edinson Volquez, Brian Wilson, Kerry Wood (9 out of 33, or 27.3%)

Poor Manager Selections: Justin Duchscherer, Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Dioner Navarro, George Sherrill, Billy Wagner (6 out of 12, or 50%)

The data suggests that the managers are the ones screwing up. If we want to look at just the players that don’t are worse than one standard deviation below average in both categories, that’s one player selection and three manager selections. No matter how I look at the data, it doesn’t appear to me that it’s the fans screwing up.

Looking at it more subjectively, Varitek, Crede, Guzman, and Sherrill are the players that don’t belong on the All-Star team. As I’ve already stated, I think Varitek and Crede were selected because Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez were close to unanimous selections at their positions, which resulted in Varitek and Crede only needing a handful of player votes to make the team. This is a problem that needs fixed. Guzman is the Nationals’ rep, and looking at their roster, there’s not really anyone else to pick. I have no problem with requiring one player from each team even when it means that Cristian Guzman is a 2008 All-Star. Likewise, Sherrill is the Orioles’ rep, but Brian Roberts would have been a much better selection. If Roberts were selected instead of Sherrill, the 12-pitcher restriction would have knocked Dioner Navarro off the team. Roberts and CC Sabathia (an AL player at the time) are better choices than Sherrill and Navarro. In total, I find that to be two bad choices by the player vote process (not the players), one bad choice by necessity, and one bad choice by Terry Francona.

If two bad choices were in fact by the player vote process, how do we go about fixing it? As I suggested last Sunday, I think it can be fixed with one easy change: make the players vote for two players at every position. That should remove any chance of a player making the All-Star team because someone else (Joe Mauer or Alex Rodriguez) was a near-unanimous selection.

Oh, and we should have Senator Mitchell look into how Jerry Owens got listed on the All-Star ballot.

Is there anything more revealing about the current state of the National League than the fact that the league’s best regular season record was accomplished by a team that couldn’t even outscore their opponents? Of course, that team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs’ season was unlike what anyone expected. It was believed that their path to a division title would be to bludgeon their opponents with a young, up-and-coming offense. That offense never materialized, finishing 26th in runs scored in the major leagues. Instead, Bob Melvin relied on a good defense and an outstanding bullpen to finish 90-72.

Strengths

 That young, up-and-coming offense is going to be the team’s strength down the road. Usually, when a team has major-league talent, it’s at one or two positions, but thanks to the former Vice President of Scouting Operations Mike Rizzo (hired away by the Nationals), the Diamondbacks had young prospects advancing all over the diamond. At catcher, it was Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero. Up the middle, Alberto Callaspo and Stephen Drew. On the corners, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. In the outfield, Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, and Justin Upton with Carlos Gonzalez and Aaron Cunningham coming behind them. Among those young guys, Montero, Callaspo, Drew, Young, Quentin, and Upton didn’t meet expectations at the major league level based on their minor league performances. With Snyder and Jackson, they only came close to their expectations, which leaves Reynolds as the only young player to exceed expectations. Even with all of that, they still made it to the National League Championship Series. They’re loaded with young, inexpensive talent.

In addition to the young players that graduated to the major leagues, 2007’s stars Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson will be returning in 2008. Byrnes recently signed a three-year, $30M extension, and Hudson is not yet eligible for free agency. There are scenarios where neither player is in Arizona by Spring Training, but I see them as unlikely. With the five outfielders I’ve already named, it would be logical to expect Byrnes to be shipped out to make room. When that could happen is hard to tell. If Gonzalez lights up AAA to start next season, it could be as early as next July. After Hudson’s season (.294/.376/.441) and his arbitration-eligible status, he will surely get a raise from the $3.9M he earned this year. If the Diamondbacks are ready to give Callaspo the second base job, a guy with Hudson’s productivity and contract status could bring back something valuable.

That’s two potential trade chips at Josh Byrnes’s disposal, and we haven’t even mentioned Chad Tracy. After a phenomenal 2005, in which he hit .308/.359/.553, Tracy was awarded a three-year contract worth $13.25M. That contract gives him $3.75M in ’08 and $4.75M in ’09 with a team option of $7M ($1M buyout) for 2010. If he can recover well from the microfracture surgery on his right knee (which might force him to miss the start of the ’08 season), Melvin will have three players for the corner infield positions (possibly four if Tony Clark re-signs). If Tracy proves that he’s healthy, general manager Byrnes has yet another trading possibility on his hands. The other option is for Melvin to use a platoon. Platooning Jackson and Tracy is the best option I can see. Over their careers, Jackson has hit .302/.387/.486 against lefties and .270/.350/.419 against righties, and Tracy has hit .222/.271/.337 against lefties and .308/.371/.508 against righties. Using Tracy against righties and Jackson against lefties would be the best way to maximize the organization’s assets on the field. Off the field, Jackson’s development would benefit by finding a trade partner for Tracy and giving Jackson the full-time job.

All this talk of offense, what about their defense? Byrnes, Young, and Upton could all play center field in a pinch. If all three are playing every day next year, it will be hard for opponents to find spots for their hits to drop in. At the keystone, Hudson is like a human vacuum for groundballs, and behind the plate, Chris Snyder gunned down 29 of 81 would-be base stealers, a 35.8% caught stealing rate.

Pitching in front of that defense is a rotation led by former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. Webb is a groundball machine on the mound with a 3.68 GB/FB ratio over his career, but he’s not just your typical groundball pitcher as he strikes out his fair share of batters with 194 Ks in 236.1 innings this year. He’ll be joined in the rotation by Doug Davis and Micah Owings with a possible return of Randy Johnson in 2008. Johnson is under contract for next year, but he has battled injuries the last couple of years with mixed results. They’re backed by a hard-throwing bullpen, which featured Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon, Tony Pena, and Jose Valverde. The four of them each had an ERA below 3.30 in at least 60 innings pitched. From the left side, Doug Slaten took care of the prominent lefties in opposing lineups. As you would expect from a lefty specialist, Slaten threw only 36.1 innings in his 61 appearances on the mound. Despite their relative youth, these five pitchers aren’t that far from free agency. Cruz and Lyon only have one year, and Valverde has two years. On the other hand, Pena and Slaten won’t be free agents for another five seasons.

Concerns

Given all of their strengths, it won’t be much of a surprise to hear that there aren’t many concerns with the organization heading into the offseason. They have some situations which I already covered, but those all had to do with too many guys for not enough lineup spots. There is one noticeable hole, and that is filling the void of Livan Hernandez’s departure to free agency. Of course, the Diamondbacks could potentially pursue a free agent starting pitcher. However, they went most of this year without a healthy Randy Johnson. If he comes back healthy, he would slot right into Livan’s spot and the rest of the 2007 rotation would return with Edgar Gonzalez following Webb, Johnson, Davis, and Owings.

If they find they can’t rely on the 44-year-old Big Unit, they have two options: trade Byrnes, Hudson, and/or Tracy to acquire a starting pitcher, or they could slot in one of Yusmeiro Petit, Dustin Nippert, or Dana Eveland. Petit’s been an adequate slot starter in the past, and Nippert lasted the season in the bullpen. If you’re a believer in DIPS, you’ll notice that Nippert was particularly unlucky this year. In his 45.1 innings, he struck out 38, walked 16, and gave up 5 HRs, which results in a FIP of 4.02 – not his actual ERA of 5.56. Due to injury, the left-handed Eveland only pitched 5 major league and 32.2 minor league innings. In his 27.2 innings at AAA (he threw five innings at A), he managed a 1.95 ERA, but he had a 14.40 ERA in his major league time. This continues a trend for Eveland. Since 2005, he has had ERAs of 2.72 (AA), 2.74 (AAA), and 1.65 (A and AAA) in the minors, and his major league ERAs have been 5.96, 8.12, and 14.40. The Diamondbacks hope he can get over his major league problems in 2008.

Overall

Given their one concern and their multiple strengths, it is easy to see why the Diamondbacks are considered to be NL West contenders for the next few years. With all the young talent in the NL West, the division should be fun to watch for a while.