In my previous post regarding Alex Rodriguez, I used Nate Silver’s model presented in Baseball Between the Numbers to evaluate how much Rodriguez is worth. After reading complaints about Jimmy Rollins’ NL MVP award and annual complaints that only players on winning teams have a shot, I thought that I should try using that model to determine the value of all those that received votes in the MVP voting. So that’s what I’ve done. First, we’ll look at the AL MVP award, where I thought A-Rod should have been a unanimous selection. Since I’m using a model based on historical data, there are downfalls in this analysis, so here’s a list (most likely not a complete list): the player’s replacement would produce at exactly replacement level, the player has no value beyond what he produces on the field, no consideration of market size, no consideration of actual year-end standings for determining playoff teams (Cubs get hurt due to poor record as division winner, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, and Padres get helped due to good record despite not making the playoffs), and dependence on player’s teammates in order to field a playoff caliber team. So here are the AL MVP vote-getters:

From this table, it is easily seen that Carlos Pena, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, Chone Figgins, and Frank Thomas were not worthy of an MVP vote. (I actually had estimate for Carlos Pena because the graph doesn’t go that low in wins, so I assumed that a simple linear interpolation would do.) Other than Figgins (114 games), these players were on teams that weren’t really contenders.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, the actual AL MVP came out on top, but he didn’t finish much higher than John Lackey and Fausto Carmona. I guess the real question is why did Lackey and Carmona finish no higher than 18th in the voting?

On to the NL:

There are plenty more names that show up as not worthy of votes on the NL side, but that’s mostly due to the league’s (and mostly the Central’s) mediocrity. I won’t list them all, but there are 11 players in this list under $17 million. After their removal, there are 15 players left.

Matt Holliday, Brandon Webb, and Troy Tulowitzki top the list, but I was surprised to see Jimmy Rollins that close behind them. Rollins is tied for fourth with Eric Byrnes (yet another surprise) at $23 million, only $3 million behind Holliday.

In the end, the fact that Alex Rodriguez was not a unanimous AL MVP selection and the fact that Jimmy Rollins was the NL MVP selection isn’t as bad as I originally thought. While this process determines just how much a player was worth in terms of getting his team over the hump and into the playoffs, does it really make sense for Albert Pujols to not be the MVP because his teammates weren’t good enough? Another question: aren’t the “real” most valuable players those that are producing more than they’re getting paid? If so, why don’t the writers consider how much each player is being paid?

Happy Thanksgiving!

Today is the 22nd last day of the major league season, and there are 22 teams that will fail to make the playoffs. My plan is to eliminate one of those teams everyday for the rest of the season. Sure, many of these teams are already pretty much done (and I have a plan for starting this earlier next year), but I also plan on doing a little review of each team's season.

First up is the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. According to Baseball Prospectus's Postseason Odds Report, the Rays were statistically eliminated all the way back on July 13. That's what happens when you're in the same division as the Boston Red Sox, who had a 91% chance of winning the division all the way back on May 15 and still own a 98% chance of being division champions.

The Good

They caught lightning in a bottle on the free talent market with Carlos Pena, who hit 37 HR to go along with a .274/.397/.606 batting line. The 29-year old probably just had his peak year. I expect the Rays to offer him arbitration and give him the chance to prove it wasn't a fluke. After B.J. Upton proved that he still can't play in the infield, he was moved to center field. He's played pretty well out there, and his bat has finally translated to the majors, hitting .314/.399/.546 so far. Over in left field, Carl Crawford continued to show that he is a solid part of the lineup as his OBP continued its upward trend this season to .361. Sure, it's not near where Pena and Upton were, but it is encouraging to see him getting on base more in order to put his speed to great use.

On the pitching side, Scott Kazmir started slowly but has really come on in the second half with a 2.82 ERA since the All-Star break. In that time, he's cut down on his home run and walk rates while increasing his strikeout rate. Other than Kazmir, James Shields is the only other current starter that has shown the ability to pitch in a major league rotation. Shields needs to work on keeping the ball in the park, having given up 27 HR this year (less than only Johan Santana, which is interesting), but he has really cut down on the walk rate while maintaining the strikeout rate. That's a pretty good 1-2 (or at least 2-3) to build a rotation around.

The Bad

Rocco Baldelli has spent even more time on the Disabled List this year than he did in 2006. He's even mentioned retirement recently, but it seems like that was just vented frustration. Delmon Young has still not tapped into that potential that scouts gushed about when he was in the minor leagues, but he only turns 22 next week so he's got time to turn things around. Other than the two starting pitchers mentioned above, the rest of the rotation was terrible. All told, the Rays' pitching staff has an ERA of 5.60. That isn't going to get the job done.

Looking Forward

With Evan Longoria (no, not the Desperate Housewife) having hit well in AA and AAA this season, it won't be long before he's ready for the big leagues. Since he's moved from SS to 3B, I'm assuming he's not up to the task at SS. If that's the case, the Rays need to find out if Akinori Iwamura can actually play second base as many hinted at coming into this season.

They need to figure out what they're going to do with Elijah Dukes. If they are done dealing with his off-the-field problems, they might want to look into getting whatever they can for him before his value becomes nil.

Depending on their trade value and how the Rays view them, they might want to look into trading either Crawford or Baldelli. Baldelli's value is reduced right now because he's hurt, but even when he's healthy, I doubt his trade value goes up that much because he already has that injury-prone label stitched into his uniform. Crawford has a pretty team-friendly contract right now, which might bring quite a bit back in a trade. He's already 26, the outfield is beginning to get crowded, and he just might get the Rays the pitching help they so obviously need.

Speaking of pitching, I keep hearing that the Rays have an incredible amount of pitching talent moving their ways up the system, but I have yet to see it come to fruition. I'm not doubting it's there, but pitching prospects fizzle out more often than hitting prospects.

The Rays most likely will not contend in 2008, but the future has never shone more brightly for Tampa Bay.