This past Wednesday, Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle and Joey
Votto hit three home runs. On SportsCenter’s Top Plays, Votto’s performance
ranked 10th while Gomez’s performance ranked 4th. That got me thinking. How do
they rank their top plays? Obviously, Gomez’s feat was rarer, but hitting three
home runs is more valuable than hitting for the cycle.
What about when you put it in the context of their games?
Votto’s first home run came in a scoreless game to lead off the bottom of the
second. He led off the third with a walk and stole second, but the score was
already 5-0. After Brandon Phillips led off the fifth with a homer to make it
6-0, Votto hit his second home run. Then in the sixth with two outs and
Phillips on first, Votto hit his third to make it 9-0. He would later ground
out to short to lead off the eighth. Since the first home run came in a
scoreless game, it obviously impacted the game. In his next plate appearance,
the score was already 5-0, so his performance from that point on had little
impact on the outcome of the game.
In Gomez’s case, he homered to lead off the game. He struck
out for the second out in the third inning of a 1-0 game. He next came to the plate
with two outs and a runner on second in the fifth, and subsequently drove in
the second run of the game. In the next inning, Gomez would again come to the
plate with a runner on second and two outs. He responded with an RBI double to
center to make it 7-0. He would later single to lead off the ninth to complete
the cycle. His last two ABs came with six- and seven-run leads, but his home
run and triple greatly impacted the game.
By placing their performances in the context of their games,
it can be seen that Carlos Gomez had a much greater impact on the Twins’
victory than Joey Votto had on the Reds’ victory. Based on this, I decided that
I’d start to post the top ten most important plays of the week. I chose the top
ten plays using Win Probability Added, which is the change in win expectancy
during the play. Without further ado:
In a season where they were more concerned with achieving records than winning ball games, is it any surprise the Astros are not in the playoff race?
The Good
Roy Oswalt has continued to be Roy Oswalt, although his peripherals have been on the decline. This marks the fourth straight year that Oswalt has seen his strikeout rate decline, but the bigger scare comes from the walk rate, which has jumped up from 1.55 BB/9 in 2006 to 2.59 BB/9 this season.
Carlos Lee's first season as an Astro has gone pretty well for him as he's currently hitting .297/.351/.515, which is pretty well in line with his career average. After a month experimenting with Chris Burke in center field, the Astros brought up Hunter Pence to be their full-time center fielder, and the results have been outstanding. Most years, a CF hitting .324/.360/.548 would be a rookie of the year, but he'll probably lose out to Ryan Braun in this year's award voting.
The Bad
This seems to be the story as I understand it. Owner Drayton McLane forced Craig Biggio into the lineup so that Biggio could reach the 3000-hit milestone. While Biggio was sucking up playing time and batting .252/.283/.390, the Astros were losing. Once Biggio got to the milestone, it seems that McLane began to see just how poorly the team was doing and decided that GM Tim Purpura and manager Phil Garner were to blame.
I'm not saying that Purpura and Garner did a good job, but it's not usually customary to handcuff your employees by forcing them to put a past-his-expiration player out on the field before kicking them to the curb after they fail to produce (mostly due to your mistakes).
Getting back to players that didn't perform well, Lance Berkman put up good numbers, but they weren't Berkman numbers. After six years of posting .400+ OBPs and .500+ SLG, Berkman has only hit .276/.384/.499. It isn't that apparent when looking at his counting (team-dependent) stats, but Berkman has not performed up to expectations.
Looking Forward
While the Astros have seen Pence and Wandy Rodriguez lay claim to roster spots, there isn't much in their farm system that will help them out over the next few years. In this year's draft, the Astros had forfeited their first and second round picks during free agency by signing Carlos Lee and Woody Williams. On top of that, they failed to sign their third and fourth round picks. Based on previous seasons, McLane doesn't like to let his scouting department sign prospects to large bonuses, and the results shine through in their farm system. If you don't put the money down to draft and sign the best talent, you're basically forfeiting away the cheapest source of talent in the game today. Until this gets corrected, the Astros will not be consistent contenders. As for 2008, anything is possible in the NL Central.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
