Back on Monday, I introduced my new “Balancing the Market” series with catchers. To start off, I wasn’t so sure of the concept and first base isn’t going to make that go away, but I have a feeling things will pick up as we move around the diamond. For now, the format will remain the same. Next up is first baseman, and this is going to be short.

Trade Market

No one really has a spare first baseman that can make an impact in 2008 for someone else, so there’s not really much of a market here. The closest players I can find are Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, and Richie Sexson. Johnson needs to prove he’s healthy and can still produce, Teixeira would have to see his team fall out of contention, and Sexson would have to see his team fall out of contention and prove he can still produce. Check back in July; there might be a few first basemen on the trade market then.

Contract Extensions

Contracts expiring at the end of the season include Teixeira, Sexson, and Carlos Delgado ($16M option with a $4M buyout). Teixeira is the only one worth trying to extend before the season.

Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard stand out as players in their pre-free agency years that are worth re-signing. Both players have four years before free agency, but remember that Howard is already 28. Given his age, Howard is worth a 3-year extension with an extra club option year (pre-FA arbitration is still an option if the team declines). On the other hand, Fielder is only 23. In an attempt to lock up his peak years, I’d wait until next year to discuss an extension.

Recap

For this short of an article, do we even need a recap? Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, and Richie Sexson could all make their way to the trade block this season. In the meantime, the Braves should try to sign Teixeira to an extension, while the Phillies should try to lock up Howard’s arbitration years. If the Brewers are confident that Fielder will be a force for years to come, they could work out a deal now, but I’d rather wait until next offseason to give him that extension – give him one more year to prove he’s worth the long-term deal.

I'm sure Mets' fans don't want to even think about baseball right now, but with their elimination from the playoffs today, I'm going to take a look at 2008 and beyond for the organization. As Nate Silver wrote earlier this week, the 2007 New York Mets have completed the 2nd worst collapse in baseball history. Back on September 13, the Mets had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, and yet today, they were eliminated from contention.

Strengths

You can't talk about a New York team without talking about the great players on the left side of their infield. Whether it is Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter or David Wright and Jose Reyes, New Yorkers are spoiled with greatness on the left side. In their first years of their extensions signed last August, Wright and Reyes have hit .325/.417/.548 and .283/.356/.425 while combining for 112 stolen bases in 138 attempts.This is an extreme example of what internal development can provide you on the cheap. Did you know that Wright was selected with a compensatory pick from the Colorado Rockies-Mike Hampton signing?

Out in the outfield, the Mets have Carlos Beltran and Lastings Milledge returning for sure, and they could be joined by Moises Alou, depending on the Mets picking up his option and Alou not retiring. Milledge doesn't have an impressive line for a right fielder, but a 22 year old hitting .272/.341/.446 in his rookie season is pretty good. Granted, it was only 184 at bats, but it is a good showing nonetheless. With Shawn Green on his way out (unless the Mets want to pay him an extra $8M [$10M option - $2M buyout]), Milledge should be given the everyday right field job. Beltran always seems to have nagging injuries, but he has consistently taken the field during his career with 140+ games since 2000. After a career year in 2006, Beltran still hit .275/.352/.525 this season while playing a good center field. Over in right field, Moises Alou might be suiting up for his final season (if it hasn't already occurred). He has not managed to play more than 100 games either of the last two years, but he has been successful when he has played. His batting average was slightly inflated this year, but a return to his career line of .303/.369/.517 doesn't seem out of line (he's been above each of those marks at least twice out of the last three years) if he stays healthy. Since you can't expect Alou to stay on the field all year, a good fourth outfielder is necessary, and Endy Chavez can fill that role. He will never have another year like 2006, but he can be a useful fill-in for Alou when Moises needs rest or time on the DL.

The pitching rotation has shown that it provides quality innings when healthy, but it has rarely been completely healthy. When you have a 35 year old Pedro Martinez and 41 year old Orlando Hernandez, you can count on one of them needing time off at some point during the season. Adding to the team's age on the mound, 41 year old Tom Glavine has a player option for 2008. He is due $3M; if he chooses to come back for another season, he'll make another $10M. Despite Glavine's atrocious final outing this year, the Mets (and eventually Mets' fans will come back around) would like to have him back for another year. For the last two spots in the rotation, John Maine and Oliver Perez have shown that they can be productive major league starters. Maine had a 3.91 ERA over 191 innings, and Perez had a 3.56 ERA over 177 innings. Perez had a great season back in 2004 (2.98 ERA, 196 IP) before completing falling apart the last two seasons (5.85 and 6.55 ERAs). If he and pitching coach Rick Peterson can keep his mechanics together, he should continue to be a quality #3-type pitcher.

Coming out of the bullpen, the Mets had two good left-handed relievers: Billy Wagner and Pedro Feliciano. Wagner struggled down the stretch, but at the end of the year, he still had a 2.63 ERA over 68.1 innings. Pitching in front of Wagner in games, Feliciano managed a 3.11 ERA over 63.2 innings. This is a good start to a bullpen, but the Mets need to find the right-handed help for a full set.

Concerns

At catcher, both Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro will be free agents. If the Mets are unable to bring either (or both) of them back, there are some options available. This offseason's free agent catcher class includes Michael Barrett, Castro, Jason Kendall, Lo Duca, Jose Molina, today's interim Yankee manager Jorge Posada, and Yorvit Torrealba. Obviously, Posada is the #1 option, but it would be hard for him to leave the Yankees and even harder to join the cross-town Mets. Their best option is probably one of their own, but not the one they've been starting. Ramon Castro is an okay catcher defensively, but he is coming off his best season with the bat. He hit .293/.340/.571 in 140 AB this season. Over the last three years, he has hit .257/.326/.463, which is pretty good for a catcher. However, if he hasn't been playing over Lo Duca and his .273/.312/.378 line, the Mets must have had a reason, which leads me to believe that he's also not a target for the starting spot. If you're not going to have a catcher under contract going into the offseason, this might be the best time to do so. Even if there is a lack of great options, at least there are options. If the Tigers buy out Ivan Rodriguez's contract, he would just add to the class.

Carlos Delgado declined greatly this season; he only hit .258/.332/.448. This could just be a sign that his decline phase has really kicked in at 35, or it could be a sign that he wasn't fully healthy coming off his surgeries in the offseason. Delgado had surgery on his right wrist because of carpal tunnel syndrome October 23 and surgery on his left elbow October 30 to correct for tennis elbow. If he hadn't fully recovered, then a healthy offseason would be good for him going into 2008. Unfortunately, that won't happen as he was hit by a pitch today that fractured a bone in his left hand. Hopefully, Delgado can rebound in 2008.

Midseason acquisition Luis Castillo is a free agent this offseason, and the Mets will need to replace him at second base. The starter before Castillo, Jose Valentin, is recovering from surgery to repair a partially torn ACL, and the Mets have a $4.3M option for 2008. At 37 and coming off this surgery, I can't see the Mets going into 2008 with him penciled in at second. Their options include Castillo, Valentin, Marcus Giles, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kazuo Matsui. I'm sure that the Mets don't want to revisit the whole Kaz Matsui experience, but will they pursue another Japanese infielder in Iguchi?

To complement the left-handed relievers mentioned above, the Mets need to improve the right-handed side. Jorge Sosa was moved to the bullpen after time spent in the rotation this year, but he might need to fill in for the injury-prone starters from time to time. Rookie Joe Smith had a great start to the year by throwing 14 scoreless innings in April, but he has struggled at times this year. He could re-establish himself as a viable option. Another option is the rehabbing Duaner Sanchez. Sanchez missed all of 2007 after shoulder surgery. He had a 2.60 ERA in 2006 before missing the last two months and the playoffs with an earlier shoulder injury. If he can return to that form, the Mets' problem is fixed, but that's a big if.

Overall

The Mets have quite a few concerns to deal with this offseason for an 88 win team, but they shouldn't be hard for Omar Minaya to fix. The Mets should be contenders for the NL East crown again in 2008, and with Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, they should be contenders for quite a while.

It seems I need to clarify what these rankings are meant for. They are based on a 12-team 5x5 mixed league with the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. I am placing the players in tiers to see where players at each position line up. This does not mean that sixth tier catchers are equal to sixth tier first basemen. There will be cases where the third tier at one position has more value than the first tier at another. Also, I will be including DH in the 1B rankings, and their names will appear in italics.

Replacement Level
77 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
#1 overall pick, hands down. He's well above replacement across the board.

Second Tier
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
His big-time power places him up here, and he also benefits from his batting average. Howard is above replacement in all categories except SB, but he isn't that negatively affected because not many 1B steal bases.

Third Tier
3. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
A lower batting average is all that's keeping him out of the second tier. In that lineup with his production, he'll continue to put up big numbers.

Fourth Tier
4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
I have yet to figure out why Hafner is so under-the-radar. Why wasn't he an All Star last year? He was the best player in the first half of the season. His limitations to the utility spot is all that's keeping him down in the fourth tier.

5. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers
A bad first half kept his production down, but he was back in the second half. Without the first half slump, Teixeira is an easy first round selection. Despite the slump, he's still worth a second round selection.

Fifth Tier
6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The unjustly named AL MVP will be back and continue to show what he can do while healthy. Despite being the third best player on his team last year, Morneau puts up huge fantasy numbers.

7. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee is trying to come back from his wrist injury that knocked him out in April and a premature comeback that went awry. He was able to hit .339/.362/.571in his second return to the field. Don't expect 2005 again, but he should still be a stud. His steals are a rarity at the position.

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
The team is on the rise, and Prince is leading the way. I expect big things from the Brewers. Don't be surprised to see Fielder bump up his batting average and become one of the better first basemen.

Sixth Tier
9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Last year's AVG was a little out of line for his career, so expect some regression. Given that, he's been pretty consistent the last three years at about 90 runs, 40 HR, and 110 RBI. Following the standard aging curve, expect a little less than that, but he should still be a good first base option.

10. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
Let's hope he's past the stomach ailment that sidelined him for a few weeks last year, and it sounds like the humidor experiment might be lessened a little as well. Hopefully, Helton bounces back with a big year, but it is necessary to remember that he did take a significant power hit last year.

11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
The injury risk, age, and positional inflexibility drop him from his 2006 rank, but he could end up near the top of the list. It's the possibility of Big Hurt ending up at the bottom of the list that worries me.

Seventh Tier
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
14. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
LaRoche has definitely been moved to a less potent lineup, but he will also be batting higher in the order. Sexson has a little bit of a batting average problem, but he provided a little more power than the other two. Overbay makes up for lesser power with a higher average.

Eighth Tier
15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
16. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
17. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox
19. Jason Giambi, New York Yankees
Having one of these guys as your utility isn't such a bad idea unless you need some steals. Delgado, Thome, and Giambi add the home run threat while sacrificing some AVG. Gonzalez is the first base replacement player much like Varitek is the catcher replacement player. Jackson gives a high average but fewer RBI than you'd expect from a first baseman.