You can't talk about a New York team without talking about the great players on the left side of their infield. Whether it is Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter or David Wright and Jose Reyes, New Yorkers are spoiled with greatness on the left side. In their first years of their extensions signed last August, Wright and Reyes have hit .325/.417/.548 and .283/.356/.425 while combining for 112 stolen bases in 138 attempts.This is an extreme example of what internal development can provide you on the cheap. Did you know that Wright was selected with a compensatory pick from the Colorado Rockies-Mike Hampton signing?
Out in the outfield, the Mets have Carlos Beltran and Lastings Milledge returning for sure, and they could be joined by Moises Alou, depending on the Mets picking up his option and Alou not retiring. Milledge doesn't have an impressive line for a right fielder, but a 22 year old hitting .272/.341/.446 in his rookie season is pretty good. Granted, it was only 184 at bats, but it is a good showing nonetheless. With Shawn Green on his way out (unless the Mets want to pay him an extra $8M [$10M option - $2M buyout]), Milledge should be given the everyday right field job. Beltran always seems to have nagging injuries, but he has consistently taken the field during his career with 140+ games since 2000. After a career year in 2006, Beltran still hit .275/.352/.525 this season while playing a good center field. Over in right field, Moises Alou might be suiting up for his final season (if it hasn't already occurred). He has not managed to play more than 100 games either of the last two years, but he has been successful when he has played. His batting average was slightly inflated this year, but a return to his career line of .303/.369/.517 doesn't seem out of line (he's been above each of those marks at least twice out of the last three years) if he stays healthy. Since you can't expect Alou to stay on the field all year, a good fourth outfielder is necessary, and Endy Chavez can fill that role. He will never have another year like 2006, but he can be a useful fill-in for Alou when Moises needs rest or time on the DL.
The pitching rotation has shown that it provides quality innings when healthy, but it has rarely been completely healthy. When you have a 35 year old Pedro Martinez and 41 year old Orlando Hernandez, you can count on one of them needing time off at some point during the season. Adding to the team's age on the mound, 41 year old Tom Glavine has a player option for 2008. He is due $3M; if he chooses to come back for another season, he'll make another $10M. Despite Glavine's atrocious final outing this year, the Mets (and eventually Mets' fans will come back around) would like to have him back for another year. For the last two spots in the rotation, John Maine and Oliver Perez have shown that they can be productive major league starters. Maine had a 3.91 ERA over 191 innings, and Perez had a 3.56 ERA over 177 innings. Perez had a great season back in 2004 (2.98 ERA, 196 IP) before completing falling apart the last two seasons (5.85 and 6.55 ERAs). If he and pitching coach Rick Peterson can keep his mechanics together, he should continue to be a quality #3-type pitcher.
Coming out of the bullpen, the Mets had two good left-handed relievers: Billy Wagner and Pedro Feliciano. Wagner struggled down the stretch, but at the end of the year, he still had a 2.63 ERA over 68.1 innings. Pitching in front of Wagner in games, Feliciano managed a 3.11 ERA over 63.2 innings. This is a good start to a bullpen, but the Mets need to find the right-handed help for a full set.
Concerns
At catcher, both Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro will be free agents. If the Mets are unable to bring either (or both) of them back, there are some options available. This offseason's free agent catcher class includes Michael Barrett, Castro, Jason Kendall, Lo Duca, Jose Molina, today's interim Yankee manager Jorge Posada, and Yorvit Torrealba. Obviously, Posada is the #1 option, but it would be hard for him to leave the Yankees and even harder to join the cross-town Mets. Their best option is probably one of their own, but not the one they've been starting. Ramon Castro is an okay catcher defensively, but he is coming off his best season with the bat. He hit .293/.340/.571 in 140 AB this season. Over the last three years, he has hit .257/.326/.463, which is pretty good for a catcher. However, if he hasn't been playing over Lo Duca and his .273/.312/.378 line, the Mets must have had a reason, which leads me to believe that he's also not a target for the starting spot. If you're not going to have a catcher under contract going into the offseason, this might be the best time to do so. Even if there is a lack of great options, at least there are options. If the Tigers buy out Ivan Rodriguez's contract, he would just add to the class.
Carlos Delgado declined greatly this season; he only hit .258/.332/.448. This could just be a sign that his decline phase has really kicked in at 35, or it could be a sign that he wasn't fully healthy coming off his surgeries in the offseason. Delgado had surgery on his right wrist because of carpal tunnel syndrome October 23 and surgery on his left elbow October 30 to correct for tennis elbow. If he hadn't fully recovered, then a healthy offseason would be good for him going into 2008. Unfortunately, that won't happen as he was hit by a pitch today that fractured a bone in his left hand. Hopefully, Delgado can rebound in 2008.
Midseason acquisition Luis Castillo is a free agent this offseason, and the Mets will need to replace him at second base. The starter before Castillo, Jose Valentin, is recovering from surgery to repair a partially torn ACL, and the Mets have a $4.3M option for 2008. At 37 and coming off this surgery, I can't see the Mets going into 2008 with him penciled in at second. Their options include Castillo, Valentin, Marcus Giles, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kazuo Matsui. I'm sure that the Mets don't want to revisit the whole Kaz Matsui experience, but will they pursue another Japanese infielder in Iguchi?
To complement the left-handed relievers mentioned above, the Mets need to improve the right-handed side. Jorge Sosa was moved to the bullpen after time spent in the rotation this year, but he might need to fill in for the injury-prone starters from time to time. Rookie Joe Smith had a great start to the year by throwing 14 scoreless innings in April, but he has struggled at times this year. He could re-establish himself as a viable option. Another option is the rehabbing Duaner Sanchez. Sanchez missed all of 2007 after shoulder surgery. He had a 2.60 ERA in 2006 before missing the last two months and the playoffs with an earlier shoulder injury. If he can return to that form, the Mets' problem is fixed, but that's a big if.
Overall
The Mets have quite a few concerns to deal with this offseason for an 88 win team, but they shouldn't be hard for Omar Minaya to fix. The Mets should be contenders for the NL East crown again in 2008, and with Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, they should be contenders for quite a while.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
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MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
