In the past week, significant changes have happened in the NL Central. The Brewers struck first on Monday by acquiring CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and PTBNL. The Cubs struck back on Tuesday by acquiring Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, and Josh Donaldson. While the effect of the trades on the participating teams has been widely covered, the effect they have on the rest of the league gets little coverage. So just how has it affected the rest of the National League? I’ll try to answer that today.

I will be using the Postseason Odds Report available at Baseball Prospectus as a starting point. I will also consider the Sabathia trade to add 3 wins to the Brewers and the Harden/Gaudin trade to add 2 wins to the Cubs.

NL East and West Division Championships

I have not looked closely at the Cubs and Brewers individual schedules to see how they would directly affect other teams’ projected records, so the chances of each team in the other divisions winning their division championships goes unaffected.

NL Central Division Championship

With only the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals having better than 1% chances of winning the Central before the trades, the trades do not have a large effect on the Reds, Pirates, or Astros. As for the Cubs, the Sabathia trade decreases their chances while the Harden trade increases them. I estimate the net effect being about zero. On the other hand, the Brewers’ chances of winning the division have increased about 3% to 15%. That, of course, means that the Cardinals’ chances have dropped the same 3% about 5%, but there is a much larger effect in the Wild Card race.

NL Wild Card

Before the trades, the NL Wild Card had a strong probability of coming out of the NL Central with a 75% chance of that occurring. So that means that once again, the Cardinals were the bystander most affected by the trades. By my estimation, the trades have bumped up the Cubs 2% to 15% and the Brewers 13% to 47%. That increase of 15% has to come from somewhere. Since there was only 0.6% chance of the Wild Card coming out of the NL West, that 15% has to come from the East and Central. After removing 1% from the top four NL East teams and the Reds, the Cardinals’ Wild Card chances are reduced by 10% to 16%. So now that we’ve accounted for how the Sabathia and Harden trades affect everyone’s playoff odds, let’s review where that leaves everyone’s odds going forward.

Updated Postseason Odds

NL East
Phillies 56.70%
Marlins 9.62%
Mets 48.89%
Braves 5.19%
Nationals 0.00%

NL Central
Cubs 95.13%
Cardinals 20.67%
Brewers 62.55%
Reds 0.52%
Pirates 0.00%
Astros 0.12%

NL West
Diamondbacks 50.16%
Dodgers 42.41%
Giants 2.78%
Rockies 4.77%
Padres 0.51%

Buyer or Seller

The Buyer or Seller series may have ended prematurely, but that doesn’t mean we can’t revisit it here. In certain situations, it’s obvious whether a team should be a buyer or seller, but there are other situations where it’s not so obvious. Here’s my opinion; I’d like to hear yours in the comments.

Buyers: Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers
Holders: Cubs
Sellers: Braves, Nationals, Reds, Pirates, Astros, Giants, Rockies, and Padres
Undecided: Marlins and Cardinals

I plan on revisiting the Marlins and Cardinals in separate posts to make up my mind on where they should be. If I had to decide now, I’d place them in the Hold category.

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Also, I plan on having one more post regarding the All-Star selection process. Hopefully, I can get that up by Monday; it’s going to be especially difficult if my internet connection doesn’t start working.

After writing about the Cubs a couple days ago, it’s now time to talk about the team I picked to beat them in the World Series: the Boston Red Sox. Now let’s look at the defending World Champs to see if they have areas to improve before the trade deadline.

First, among position players, their only two potential weaknesses are at SS and C. At SS, Julio Lugo is getting on base really well this season, but his defense is once again suspect, at least according to the advanced statistics. He’s at -2 FRAA, 83 Rate, and .770 RZR. That RZR ranks last among MLB shortstops. The bad news is that Lugo is still signed for 3 more years, so he needs to play if he’s to provide value (either on the field or in trade). If the Sox end up looking for alternatives, they might not have to look any farther than Jed Lowrie. Lowrie has hit at both AAA (.279/.375/.435) and in the majors (.310/.340/.476). Plus, he’s held his own on defense, though in very limited time.

At catcher, Jason Varitek’s age might have caught up to him. He’s striking out 26.9% of the time. While that’s not much worse than his career 22.9%, his walk rate has also dropped to 8.6% (career 10.6%). That amounts to a career low 0.35 BB/K (career 0.52). On top of it, his liner rate has dropped to 11.7% (career 20.4%). However, there aren’t really any alternatives. Even if there were options, could you see the Red Sox choosing someone over Varitek? (On the other hand, did you expect them to trade Nomar Garciaparra?)

On the mound, the Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches. With Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, and Bartolo Colon, the Red Sox have plenty of SP to choose from, but that hasn’t stopped them from coming up in the C.C. Sabathia trade rumors. Moving to the later innings, the Red Sox also have a full stable of options: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, and Manny Delcarmen among others. If they choose to acquire a pitcher, more power to them.

Potential holes to fill: C, SS

Potential trade bait: Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp (he's still here?), Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden (Buchholz and Masterson only listed for a potential Sabathia deal)

After taking a 3-1 lead, the Indians lost three straight to the Boston Red Sox, but don’t worry Indians fans. Mark Shapiro and company have your team setup for the long haul.

Strengths

Most of the team’s core is locked up through 2010 with C.C. Sabathia being the only exception. Sabathia will become a free agent following the 2008 season if he isn’t signed to an extension before then. Victor Martinez is the key component that will be a free agent following the 2010 season. Other key guys like Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner are signed through 2012, and 2008 sensation Fausto Carmona also won’t be eligible for free agency until the end of the 2012 season. Is Rafael Betancourt (and his 80/9 K/BB) a key to this team? He’s a reliever, so I’d say no. If you think he is, he’ll be a free agent following the 2009 season.

Outside of the core of this team, their other major strength is that there are no glaring holes on the team. Martinez shored up his defense last offseason so that teams are no longer running at will when he’s behind the plate. After a miserable 2006 saw 100 of 122 would-be base stealers reach successfully (an 18.0% CS rate), he threw out 33 of 103 runners this year (a 32.0% CS rate). Their fifth infielder is Josh Barfield, who was considered one of their major additions last offseason, but after hitting .250/.278/.326 through July, he was benched in favor of Asdrubal Cabrera. If Barfield can fix his problems at the plate, the Indians could then swing a midseason trade to fix any early-season holes that crop up due to injury or poor performance. Flanking Sizemore in the outfield are Franklin Gutierrez and a platoon of Jason Michaels and David Dellucci. The two players have career lines of .287/.359/.441 against LHP and .269/.355/.464 against RHP, respectively.

The pitching staff will have Sabathia and Carmona headlining a rotation with Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, and Aaron Laffey filling out the 3, 4, and 5 spots. That assumes that the Indians pick up Byrd’s option of $8M, which also depends on the outcome of his hGH admission (it wasn’t against the rules at the time and he had a prescription, so he should be safe). Without Byrd, their in-house options are Cliff Lee, Jeremy Sowers, and Adam Miller. After missing the month of April due to injury, Lee pitched 91.2 major league innings before being demoted because of a 6.38 ERA and clubhouse problems. In 48 minor league innings, Lee had a 3.00 ERA. Coming off a 2.76 ERA over 153.2 AA innings in 2006, Miller was expected to be a late season addition to the Indians 2007 staff, but he only managed 65.1 innings at AAA with a 4.82 ERA due to right elbow inflammation in July. Minor league injury information is tough to come by, so I’m unaware of the extent of the injury. However, he is pitching in the Arizona Fall League, so that’s a good sign. These backup options for the rotation could also find a spot in the bullpen, but they’ll be hard to come by as Betancourt, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis will all be back. In addition, Joe Borowski and Aaron Fultz have $4M and $1.5M club options for 2008. Fultz’s option will most definitely be picked up, and Borowski’s option isn’t bad for a league average relief pitcher. That’s five bullpen spots already taken, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for the other guys.

Concerns

After a healthy 2007, a couple of Indians’ pitchers could struggle to stay healthy in 2008. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has written about the Year-After Effect, and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has written about a “rule of 30” based on ASMI research. Both tell the same story. If a pitcher sees a 30-inning increase in IP, the risk of injury elevates. Both Sabathia and Carmona exceeded last year’s IP by at least 50. There are exceptions, but with two players on the same team, it’s likely that at least one of them will suffer from the Year-After Effect.

The Indians have no holes on their roster. I know I mentioned this as a strength, but it can also be a weakness. The easiest way to add wins to a roster is by replacing a poor player with an average one (or even better, a great one). Without any holes, the Indians will be strong contenders in 2008 and beyond, but it has to be tempting to go out and get one improvement in an attempt to distance themselves from the Tigers. The easiest improvement would be to get a big bat to play one of the corners, since they don’t currently have one at any of the four corner positions. However, it’s hard to bring in somebody to start over Ryan Garko, Casey Blake, Gutierrez, or Michaels/Dellucci and still get your money’s worth. The only big bats available on the corners are Alex Rodriguez (most likely), Mike Lowell, Barry Bonds, and Adam Dunn (possibly). I only see Lowell and Dunn as plausible choices, but imagine if Bonds played for the Indians, who would get booed more on the road: the perceived PED user (Bonds) or the guy with the positive PED test (Betancourt)?

Overall

The Indians’ main goal this offseason has to be signing Sabathia to an extension, but given the workload on his arm this year, do they wait until next offseason in case he gets hurt? Given that Verducci pointed out that Sabathia was an exception before, Shapiro should try to get something done before other teams can get involved next year. The Indians don’t have any needs to fill heading into the offseason, but if they want to get involved, they have some options. They could sign another big bat. They could trade one of their infielders (depending on how they or other teams feel about Barfield). No matter what they do, they’ll be contenders in the AL Central again next season and should be for years to come.