I've been thinking about the format of these posts, and I'm going to try something new. Instead of looking at what was good or bad about this past season, I'm going to take a more forward-looking view by looking at the team's strengths and weaknesses heading into the offseason.
In addition, I was hoping that I would start catching up to when teams are actually being eliminated from the playoffs, but that hasn't happened yet. The next team was officially eliminated from the NL Central this past Wednesday as the Reds lost to the Cubs 3-2.
Strengths
Even after trading away two of their young outfielders last year in Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns, the Reds are once again loaded with outfielders as long as Wayne Krivsky and company make the right choice regarding Adam Dunn's option. His club option is for $13M (could be $16M based on award bonuses, but Dunn doesn't get enough praise to win awards) and will activate a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade (Dunn has to pick 10 teams to which he would accept a trade). Dunn's batting average will probably not be this high again (and .264 isn't that high), but he will be the only player to have hit 40 HR in each of the last four seasons unless either David Ortiz or Albert Pujols hit 9 homers the rest of the way. Although Ken Griffey, Jr. has been shut down the rest of the season, he should be healthy going into 2008. If he can stay healthy is another question altogether. With those two in the corners, Josh Hamilton has surprised many by showing that he is ready for the major leagues. He should also be healthy going into next year despite being out for the rest of the season with a hamstring strain. Another injury has taken Ryan Freel out, but he should be back next year as well. If those four aren't enough, Jay Bruce has been lights out in the minors all year, prompting Baseball Prospectus's prospect guru Kevin Goldstein to declare "Jay Bruce is too good for the minor leagues" in his annual CF Prospect Rankings. Bruce will be following in Joey Votto's shoes, who has staked out his claim to the everyday first base spot in Cincinnati by hitting .353/.411/.549 in 51 at bats since his call-up on the heels of a .294/.381/.478 season at AAA Louisville. With Brandon Phillips at the keystone and Edwin Encarnacion at the hot corner, the Reds are on the verge of having another good offense in the hitters' paradise of Great American Ball Park.
The Reds' rotation also looks to be on the way up as Aaron Harang continues to show that he is a legit #1 pitcher with a 3.61 ERA over 216.2 innings while pitching in the aforementioned hitters' paradise. As the #2 starter, Bronson Arroyo had some slip-ups this year, but a lot of those can be attributed to being overworked in early May. He had consecutive outings of 120, 117, and 129 pitches, which were followed up by six starts in which he gave up 35 runs over 29.2 innings. Back on July 27th, he was kept out there for 123 pitches and proceeded to give up 7 runs over 1.2 in his next start. I know that it isn't correct to just remove those bad starts, but if you just remove those six straight starts in late May and early June, his ERA falls to 3.32 from the 4.37 he currently sports. The Reds manager next year, if it's Pete Mackanin or somebody else, needs to make sure to not overwork Arroyo next year, or he might end up with a broken Arroyo for the next month, or worse. Future additions to the rotation include Homer Bailey, touted as a future #1 by scouts heading into this year, and Johnny Cueto. Bailey has had a rough year, although he returned to the big leagues Thursday in San Francisco and got the win by going 5.2 and only allowing one run. He was kept on a pretty tight leash as he was held to only 80 pitches in his first start since being sidelined with a groin strain. Cueto will most likely start the season at AAA, but if he pitches well, he could be slotted into the rotation midseason.
Weaknesses
The bullpen in Cincinnati has been terrible once again. David Weathers and Jared Burton seem to be the only guys that can be relied upon in the bullpen. Once you remove the starting pitchers from the equation, the Reds' bullpen has an ERA of 5.06. If you further remove Weathers and Burton, that figure jumps to 5.74. While they need to fix the bullpen, the Reds have always approached this situation the wrong way. Instead of throwing money at veterans like they have with Mike Stanton ($2M for a 6.11 ERA, $3M for next year, and a $500K buyout for 2009), they should find hard-throwing pitchers that other organizations have given up on and see what they can get out of them. Burton was a Rule 5 pick this past winter, and Jon Coutlangus was a waiver claim. The two of them combined for $760K and a 3.25 ERA over 83 innings. Coutlangus can be a good LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) if he stops walking them around the bases. Left-handers only managed a .206 average against him, but Coutlangus has given up 16 walks in 17.1 innings against lefties.
Overall
The Reds might need to sign one or two league-average starting pitchers for 2008 to be able to compete, but they shouldn't sign any FA pitcher to a long-term deal. If they can get a good deal on just one starter, they could be setting themselves up for a run at the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central in 2009 and beyond. It'll be tough to top the Brewers over the next four or five years, but with the young talent coming up, the Reds just might have a shot.
First Tier 1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies Runs unmatched by any other 2B, HR unmatched by any other 2B, and RBI unmatched by any other 2B all wrapped in one package. Hands down, top fantasy 2B.\
Second Tier 2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels Unbelievable batting averages throughout the minors: .318, .368, .367, .384, .342, .369, plus he's developing some power to go with it.
Third Tier 3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers 4. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees 5. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks 6. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants 7. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers 8. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves 9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds *10. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
Kinsler provides extra power for the position. Cano lacks the steals, but makes up for it with batting average. Hudson gets a few extra runs while sacrificing a few RBI. Durham's age and previous seasons makes 2006 scream fluke. If Weeks can stay healthy and play better defense, he can become one of the best second baseman over the next few years. Johnson doesn't qualify at second yet, but if he wins the job, he'll provide strong numbers at second base. Freel makes up for the power outage with monster stolen base numbers if he wins a starting outfield spot in Cincinnati. Roberts should put up numbers very similar to Freel.
Fourth Tier 11. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox 12. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels 13. Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates 14. Luis Castillo, Minnesota Twins 15. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox 16. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins 17. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds
This group of players contain several guys that came out of nowhere last year to put up big numbers - Sanchez, Uggla, and Phillips - who will most likely come back down to earth. Iguchi has been consistently solid since coming over from Japan: 80 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG. Figgins provides major steals, covering up for his poor AVG and RBI total. Freddy Sanchez is the exact opposite in using his AVG to make up for his lack of steals. Castillo and Lugo are pretty similar with Castillo providing slightly better AVG and Lugo a few more home runs. Uggla provides a little more power than the rest of the guys in this tier, but his AVG brings him back to the pack. Phillips has streaky plate discipline, which can hurt his production, but he's still solid across the board.
As always, bring on the comments.
*Brian Roberts was originally a member of the 4th tier, but I looked into it after JoshQPublic questioned his placement and moved him up into the 3rd tier.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
