I’d like to say that I’m going to fly through the remaining
positions, but I’m going to be flying out-of-town for a few days. I’m unsure
how much blog work (if any) I’ll get done during that time. Hopefully, I’ll get
something back up here by the beginning of next week.
Impact Third Basemen
to Be Traded
Brandon Inge has been the name mentioned most often in this
spot as he wants out of Detroit, but his contract will be hard to move.
Nineteen million over the next three years is hard to justify for a third
baseman that hit .236/.312/.376 a year ago.
Ian Stewart will be competing for the second base job in
Colorado this spring. If he fails to win the job, he’s blocked by Garrett
Atkins at his natural position, and he’d be a very valuable chip if made
available. The Rockies could use him to get a missing piece of the puzzle later
this season.
This name might surprise people: Troy Glaus. Glaus was
already traded once this season, but the Cardinals don’t look like they’ll be
contenders this year. Next year doesn’t look much better. If you remember back
to his actual trade this offseason, he had to waive a no-trade clause to go
from Toronto to St. Louis. It’s very doubtful he’d do it again anytime soon, so
he’s one name that can be safely crossed back off the list.
Contenders Needing a Third
Baseman
Back on January 28th, the
Philadelphia Phillies tried to place a patch over their third base hole by
inking Pedro Feliz to a two-year deal worth $8.5M. The only problem is that
Feliz isn’t much of an upgrade over the Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms/Eric Bruntlett
platoon he’s replacing. Feliz has only topped the .300 mark in OBPonce his entire career, and that was
back in 2004. He’s moving from A####mp;T Park to Citizens Bank Park, which
should help him get over .300 this year, but getting an improvement will
help to close that Santana-sized gap that New York created. It would be great
if they could get Ian Stewart to complete their infield picture for the next
four years, but they don’t have much to offer that would help the Rockies.
Until teams start to give up on ’08 at the trading deadline, there isn’t much
out there to help the Phillies.
Put
Me In, Coach
Andy LaRoche has been waiting for
his shot to be the starting third baseman in Los Angeles, and it should be his
to lose this spring. The Dodgers have used Nomar Garciaparra to block both
James Loney and Andy LaRoche in the past. Last year, Loney took control of the
first base job, and this year, LaRoche should follow suit. The question remains
– will Joe Torre start the rookie over the veteran?
Next
Year’s Free Agents
Casey Blake and Joe Crede make up
this list, and I think it’s safe to say both will have to wait until next year
to see their next contracts.
Pre-Free
Agent Stars
Miguel Cabrera is the easy name to
mention. Cabrera will make $11.3M this year, and he’s arbitration-eligible for
one more season before his free agency. Even if he’s forced to move to first in
a couple years, his bat is so outstanding that he’ll be worth whatever he and
the Tigers can hammer out.
Ryan Zimmerman isn’t eligible for
free agency until after the 2011 season, but I think he’s proven enough in
massive RFK to be signed to a long-term extension. He’s their current and
future franchise player, so it’s time to get the deal out of the way.
These guys haven’t reached this
stage yet, but they’ve got the potential to be on this list a year from now: Evan
Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion.
Recap
Brandon Inge, Ian Stewart, and Troy Glaus (if he’ll agree to
it) are trading block guys for me. The Phillies need to upgrade their third
base spot again to make up ground on the Mets. Andy LaRoche deserves to be starting over Nomar Garciaparra in LA. Casey Blake and Joe Crede will
be next year’s free agent third basemen. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman
should be signed long-term. Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and
Edwin Encarnacion could make their way onto the extension list with good 2008
seasons.
After appearing in the 2006 World Series, expectations were high in the Motor City. After acquiring Gary Sheffield from the Yankees, expectations grew. Unfortunately, those expectations are going to go unfulfilled. With the next Yankee victory or the next Tiger loss, the Detroit Tigers will be eliminated from the playoff race.
Strengths
The offense is currently ranked third in the major leagues in runs scored, and with all of the productive players under contract for next year, they should remain a high-scoring team in 2008. Only two of their starters are free agents this offseason: Ivan Rodriguez and Sean Casey. Usually, excluding Pudge from the productive player group would result in a great deal of retaliation from others, but when you can't get your OBP over .300, it's hard to be productive. No one will argue that Rodriguez is still a great defensive catcher, and when you've got a crew of hitters around him, that's what makes him a worthwhile investment. At 35, you can't expect him to hit .347/.375/.667 like he did in 2000 with the Rangers, but if he can get back to last year's .300/.332/.437, that's pretty good for a catcher. Another year of .280/.293/.420 or worse will signify that even Pudge has to answer to Father Time eventually. If Pudge is your biggest positional problem, you must be doing something right.
The other free agent Sean Casey has spent years being horrible, but for some reason, his on-field performance gets overlooked in favor of his clubhouse leadership and ability to handle the media. It's been three years since Casey has had a productive season at the plate, and a defensive first baseman just isn't worth all that much. After hitting .296/.353/.396 this year, Casey appears to be headed out of Detroit with talk of shortstop Carlos Guillen moving over to first base. Guillen is one of the most underrated players today, and his .293/.354/.493 line has nearly 100 points in the SLG department over Casey. That will be an improvement. As far as replacing Guillen at shortstop, there has been a lot of talk of the Tigers acquiring Jack Wilson in the offseason. Wilson's defense is a big improvement over Guillen's, and his bat isn't any worse than Casey's. By replacing Casey with Wilson, they improve the defense without harming the offense.
Making up the heart of the Tiger offense are Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson. Granderson has been talked about lately by being one of only a handful to accomplish 20 2B, 20 3B, 20 HR, and 20 SB in one season, and Ordonez is often mentioned in the AL MVP discussion. He doesn't have a chance of beating Alex Rodriguez anymore, but he proved that he is back to his pre-injury form. Joining Ordonez and Granderson in the lineup are Placido Polanco, Brandon Inge, and Gary Sheffield. Polanco is putting up a huge season at 2B, and Sheffield has done well coming off of and dealing with his shoulder injuries. He's scheduled to have surgery in the offseason. With his age and his shoulder problems, it should be interesting to see how many more years he can maintain that tremendous bat speed he has. On the other hand, Inge seems to have lost the home run power he displayed in 2006, which appears to be a career year. With a career high of 16 home runs coming into the season, Inge hit 27 home runs last year, but he has only hit 14 this year. Having signed a four-year extension back in December, the Tigers are betting that he can turn it back around. Out in left field, the Tigers tried to push Cameron Maybin up to the big leagues this year, but at 20 years old, he doesn't look ready. After hitting .316/.409/.523 combined through three minor league levels, he's only hit .152/.220/.283 in the majors. He'll probably start 2008 at either AA or AAA and could possibly make his return midseason. Until that time, Marcus Thames will be the left fielder. Thames has always had power, but he needs to get on base more often.
Weaknesses
After a great 2006, the pitching staff has been the team's weakness this year and heading into 2008. It is more a question of durability than it is a question of talent. Justin Verlander has held up so far, but there have been question marks about his workload even before he made it to the major league club. The guy that is supposed to be his co-ace, Jeremy Bonderman, was shut down a few weeks ago due to right elbow inflammation. Bonderman was handled carefully throughout his development, but the second half of 2007 has been a disaster (7.38 ERA since the All-Star break). It makes you question if he was hiding the pain from the coaching staff for a while. While Nate Robertson has put together yet another solid season in the middle of the rotation, Kenny Rogers started the year on the DL and hasn't been as effective since making his return. He'll be a free agent, and the Tigers could be entering a transitional stage as they have a couple young arms coming up the ranks in Andrew Miller and Jair Jurrjens. Whether they re-sign Rogers or go with the young guns, the Tigers have several question marks here going forward.
The question marks don't end in the rotation. Todd Jones will be entering free agency, Joel Zumaya hasn't been the same since rupturing a tendon in his middle finger, and Fernando Rodney hasn't been the same this year. Jones has spent much of his career in a Tiger uniform so there might be some loyalty built up in that relationship, but relievers that have "proven" themselves as a closer generally command big money on the market. Zumaya had a 3.63 ERA before the injury but a 5.28 ERA after. Rodney has a 4.10 ERA over 48.1 inning this year after a 2006 season with a 3.52 ERA over 71.2 innings last year.
Overall
The Tigers have several question marks heading into 2008. First and foremost, they need their young pitchers (starters and relievers) to be healthy and effective. Additionally, the Tigers should try to keep Ivan Rodriguez and Todd Jones in Detroit. If Maybin can make his way back to the majors next year and prove himself when he gets called up, he'll be a big lift to the Tigers both offensively and defensively (he's a legit center fielder, who will be playing a corner). Things will need to improve next year for the Tigers to knock off the
Indians and win their first division title since they won the AL East
back in 1987.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders