After writing about the Cubs a couple days ago, it’s now time to talk about the team I picked to beat them in the World Series: the Boston Red Sox. Now let’s look at the defending World Champs to see if they have areas to improve before the trade deadline.

First, among position players, their only two potential weaknesses are at SS and C. At SS, Julio Lugo is getting on base really well this season, but his defense is once again suspect, at least according to the advanced statistics. He’s at -2 FRAA, 83 Rate, and .770 RZR. That RZR ranks last among MLB shortstops. The bad news is that Lugo is still signed for 3 more years, so he needs to play if he’s to provide value (either on the field or in trade). If the Sox end up looking for alternatives, they might not have to look any farther than Jed Lowrie. Lowrie has hit at both AAA (.279/.375/.435) and in the majors (.310/.340/.476). Plus, he’s held his own on defense, though in very limited time.

At catcher, Jason Varitek’s age might have caught up to him. He’s striking out 26.9% of the time. While that’s not much worse than his career 22.9%, his walk rate has also dropped to 8.6% (career 10.6%). That amounts to a career low 0.35 BB/K (career 0.52). On top of it, his liner rate has dropped to 11.7% (career 20.4%). However, there aren’t really any alternatives. Even if there were options, could you see the Red Sox choosing someone over Varitek? (On the other hand, did you expect them to trade Nomar Garciaparra?)

On the mound, the Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches. With Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, and Bartolo Colon, the Red Sox have plenty of SP to choose from, but that hasn’t stopped them from coming up in the C.C. Sabathia trade rumors. Moving to the later innings, the Red Sox also have a full stable of options: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, and Manny Delcarmen among others. If they choose to acquire a pitcher, more power to them.

Potential holes to fill: C, SS

Potential trade bait: Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp (he's still here?), Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden (Buchholz and Masterson only listed for a potential Sabathia deal)

First, I’d like to point out Ken Pomeroy’s Bracket Breakdowns at the start of the NCAA tournament. Using his Pomeroy Ratings and log5 computations, he posted the chances of each team getting to each round. So why am I bringing this up now? If you had simply used those odds to make your picks, you would have ended up with the top score in Yahoo’s Tournament Pick’em.

Originally, I was going to say that I was going to be putting this blog on the backburner while I go through a career transition, but I’m going to try my best to keep this going. I’m not going to promise anything regularly getting posted, but we’ll see how it goes. I still have the Balancing the Market series to finish. While I plan on completing that series, it takes quite a bit of work for me to assemble the information in one place so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t get finished for a while.

For today, I just want to tie up some loose ends. A while back, I had promised that I would post my projected standings before the season. While it’s obviously not before the season anymore, I will post my picks I made in BP’s Predictatron. In making these picks, I leaned on the PECOTA projections, which you can get a fairly close look at here (although those are updated every day by taking games completed into account). In adjusting away from those projections, I used a combination of things: how I disagree with PECOTA about certain teams, expectations of teams to improve via trade, and expectations of teams to dump FA-bound players at the deadline.

AL East

1.       New York Yankees (94-68) – a lot of risk in the pitching staff, but they’ve got the arms and front office ability to get the job done

2.       Boston Red Sox (91-71) – same as above, but less likely to make a big deal at the deadline

3.       Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) – maturation at the plate and among the pitching prospects, and improved defense over last year

4.       Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) – lack big-time star to put them over the top, but they do have plenty of big-time injury risks

5.       Baltimore Orioles (67-95) – doing the right thing by getting younger and their 2008 team will get worse if Brian Roberts finally leaves town

AL Central

1.       Cleveland Indians (93-69) – I think I made a mistake here as the 2007 IP increases for C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could hurt their 2008 chances

2.       Detroit Tigers (90-72) – if C.C. and Carmona falter, the Tigers will end up on top of the division

3.       Chicago White Sox (78-84) – several players on the wrong side of 30 could offset the acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher

4.       Kansas City Royals (76-86) – the Royals are starting to turn things around, and they might get out of the basement again in 2008

5.       Minnesota Twins (71-91) – after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins will be lucky to stay out of the basement, which makes the Joe Nathan extension a bit of a head-scratcher

AL West

1.       Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76) – the Angels have been hit hard with injuries, but they’re lucky they don’t have much competition here

2.       Oakland Athletics (80-82) – the A’s weren’t as bad as their record in 2007, and they just might regret trading away Haren and Swisher as the season progresses

3.       Seattle Mariners (76-86) – unlike the A’s, the Mariners weren’t as good as their record in 2007; they couldn’t even outscore their opponents, and it’s not like they have youth on their side (lineup’s average age is 31)

4.       Texas Rangers (74-88) – after last year’s trades of Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, and Kenny Lofton, the Rangers went completely into rebuild mode, and they’ll be there for a couple more years

NL East

1.       New York Mets (91-71) – after acquiring Johan Santana, how can you not pick the Mets here?

2.       Atlanta Braves (86-76) – very good lineup and SP depth

3.       Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) – very good lineup and no pitching depth

4.       Florida Marlins (75-87) – without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I guess Marlins fans will have to celebrate that they still have Hanley Ramirez

5.       Washington Nationals (74-88) – new park, but they still don’t have their farm system completely rebuilt; at least they’re getting closer

NL Central

1.       Chicago Cubs (91-71) – I’d be more confident here if they could fix their lineup (hint: OBP guys go at the top)

2.       Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) – could take the division once they figure out that Jason Kendall is no longer a starting catcher; yes, he’s done well, but he has a .375 BABIP with only a 14.6% line drive rate (expected BABIP of .266)

3.       Cincinnati Reds (82-80) – despite Corey Patterson’s hot start (5 doubles and 4 home runs), he still has the lowest OBP in the lineup and is still batting leadoff

4.       St. Louis Cardinals (77-85) – Albert Pujols and the gang won’t keep up this 111-win pace

5.       Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91) – new management was still sorting things out this offseason; if several of their players restore some of their trade value early, don’t be surprised if they end the season in different uniforms midseason

6.       Houston Astros (70-92) – if you ignore pitching staffs, the Astros might be contenders

NL West

1.       Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) – although they were outscored last year, nearly all Diamondbacks players are on the upswing portion of their careers; they’ll outscore their opponents this year

2.       Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76) – plenty of top young talent; if they learn to bench Juan Pierre, the Dodgers have the talent to win the division

3.       Colorado Rockies (81-81) – my expectations from Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales aren’t too high, and they don’t have the depth behind them

4.       San Diego Padres (76-86) – I’m probably expecting too little from the Padres (I always do), but their outfield is a mess as they don’t really have a capable CF as Jim Edmonds doesn’t really qualify anymore

5.       San Francisco (68-94) – Q:  How long until the Bay Area writers start to wish Barry Bonds was still around? A: It won’t happen; they’re too stubborn to admit it.

For those curious, my mortal lock picks are the Red Sox and Giants. The Red Sox are possibly the best run organization in baseball, so I’m confident they can finish around 91 wins. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and nothing else, so I’m pretty confident they’ll end up around 68 wins. My only worry is that they’ll end up with a lot less.

My World Series pick is the Boston Red Sox crushing Cubs’ fans spirits.

I’m sorry that I didn’t get this up here sooner. Fantasy baseball got in the way. We’ve completed catchers and infielders in this series, so next up are the outfielders. I’m going to start with center fielders because they’re usually harder to find than corner outfielders. If a team has an extra quality center fielder, he can move to a corner with no problem. If a team has an extra quality corner outfielder, he’s most likely relegated to the bench because his defense isn’t good enough for center.

Impact Center Fielders to Be Traded

Over the past two offseasons, the San Francisco Giants have spent a ton of money on two players that most likely aren’t worth it: Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand. What makes it worse is that it might be four or five years before the Giants re-enter the NL playoff picture. All the talk has been about how happy the players are now that Barry Bonds is gone. I’ve got a feeling that finishing last will make those players change their minds about the situation. Rowand is due $52 million over the next five years – all that for a guy with two good seasons at the plate in his career (2004 and 2007). As for trading him, it won’t happen because he has a full no-trade clause this year, but he only has a limited no-trade clause in subsequent years. If he has a good year in 2008, it will be time to unload him.

One other guy that’s been rumored to be available through trade is Coco Crisp, but I don’t agree with that decision. With Coco Crisp, they’ve got somebody who can act as a sub for six positions without a ton of loss at each. Obviously, he can sub for the three outfield spots and the DH. With Kevin Youkilis on the roster, he can also sub for first and third with Manny Ramirez moving to DH, David Ortiz moving to first, and either Youkilis or Mike Lowell at third. Now, let’s list the starters at those positions (if we consider Crisp as the bench guy): J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny, Ortiz, Youkilis, and Lowell. There are a few guys in that list that have had injury problems. Plus, Crisp is only set to make $10.5M over the next two seasons. He could be worth twice that. For these reasons, the Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp as insurance.

Contenders Needing a Center Fielder

Atlanta Braves traded for Mark Kotsay in an attempt to fill the void left by Andruw Jones’s free agent departure, but it has been three years since Kotsay has been both healthy and productive. The other options – Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson – don’t provide much certainty for Braves’ fans either. It will be at least half a year until Jordan Schafer is ready to take over. As currently constructed, the Braves are in the mix for the wild card, and improving their center fielder would go a long way toward getting back to the playoffs. Maybe they could convince the Red Sox to trade Crisp.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s center field market won’t be anything like this past offseason. Mike Cameron and Mark Kotsay are the best free agents-to-be, but the Brewers hold an option for 2009 on Cameron. Given the alternatives, the Brewers might determine that he’s worth the $10 million to keep around for one more year.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

B.J. Upton tops the list here. Moved away from his error-prone tendencies in the infield, Upton had a great year in 2007. His incredible bat was finally on display at the major league level, and he will continue to prove why scouts were so high on him in the past. Like several of his teammates, the Rays should be trying to lock up Upton’s arbitration and possibly one or two of his free agent years.

Several players could make their way onto this list with good 2008 seasons: Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Melky Cabrera, Lastings Milledge, Chris Young, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Pie, Cameron Maybin, and Josh Hamilton.

Recap

The Giants signed Aaron Rowand for some unknown reason, and they should look to trade him when his full no-trade clause becomes limited following the season. The Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp to guard against injuries among their starters at six positions. Despite trading for Mark Kotsay, the Braves still need a center fielder. Next year’s free agent class is not very impressive, which could mean the Brewers will exercise their 2009 option on Mike Cameron’s contract. B.J. Upton is an elite player deserving of a contract extension, and a whole slew of players could prove themselves deserving with good 2008s.

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As I expected, things are picking up as we move around the diamond. There’s a lot to talk about at the keystone, so let’s get to it.

Trade Market

One of the second baseman that I think should be traded has already been mentioned several times in trade rumors this offseason – Brian Roberts. Another player I think should be made available is Mark Ellis. Roberts is due $6.6M and $8M the next two seasons before becoming a free agent, and playing on a bad Baltimore club, he isn’t worth that price. Put him on a contender, and he’s easily worth that salary. The same case could be made for Ellis, who is due $5M in 2008 and will be a free agent following the season. Both teams have already shown a willingness to trade away veterans this offseason, and Roberts and Ellis should be on their ways out.

As for who should be trying to acquire either one of these players, the first team that comes to mind is Houston, who just gave a 3-year, $15M contract to Kazuo Matsui. Matsui only hit .249/.304/.333 away from Coors Field last year, and he was protected against left-handed pitchers as he only had 70 ABs in which he hit .271/.311/.386 against them. It doesn’t appear that Houston would have what it takes to acquire Roberts anyway, but it’s not like they gave Baltimore much for Miguel Tejada either.

The next tier of teams that should be interested in upgrading at second consists of the New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago Cubs. Like the Astros, the New York Mets just signed a player to a multi-year deal to play second base, but Luis Castillo has been on the decline the last couple of years. At 32, he’s no longer the speedster he was in Florida, and he’s only managed to hit .296/.358/.370 and .301/.362/.359 the last two years. Those would be acceptable lines if his defense was better. Since Castillo will make $6M for each of the next 4 years, I think it’s safe to say that the Mets aren’t looking to replace him anytime soon.

The Rockies are going into camp with the second base job up for grabs between Jayson Nix, Marcus Giles, Omar Quintanilla, and Ian Stewart. If Stewart can play an acceptable second base, the Rockies could be scratched off the list, but there are doubts that he can make the transition from third. One of the Rockies’ top prospects is shortstop Chris Nelson. With Troy Tulowitzki locked into the shortstop spot at the major league level, maybe they could part with Nelson in a package for Roberts. A move for Roberts would considerably improve their chances of making a return trip to the postseason.

Although the Cubs have been rumored to be trading for Brian Roberts for quite a while, I actually think they’d be better off asking about Mark Ellis. Right now, their middle infield spots will be occupied by two of Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, Eric Patterson, Ryan Theriot, and Ronny Cedeno. If they acquire Roberts, the shortstop job would be up to DeRosa and Theriot (assuming Cedeno gets traded). If instead they got Ellis, they could play him at either second or short with the remaining spot going to one of DeRosa, Fontenot, Patterson, Theriot, and Cedeno (minus whoever gets traded). If they get a deal done for either one, the real key to how much they’ve improved their ’08 playoff odds is whether or not Theriot remains in the starting lineup.

Contract Extensions

Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Jeff Kent are all free agents after the season. I’ve already covered Ellis, and Kent contemplated retirement following the 2007 season, eliminating both from the contract extension discussion unless Ellis gets traded. Regarding Hudson, the Diamondbacks got Chris Burke in the Jose Valverde trade, and some speculate that Burke will be Hudson’s successor in Arizona. While I wanted the Astros to give him Craig Biggio’s starting job for a couple of years now, I don’t see him as a great replacement for Hudson in Arizona. Burke’s going to be 28 when the season starts, and if he hasn’t proven his worth as a starter so far, I doubt he ever will. He has a career .249/.319/.377 line over 1020 major league ABs. At 30, Hudson’s entering his decline phase, but a two- or three-year extension could help keep the Diamondbacks at the top of a tough division.

When looking at young second baseman worth offering an extension during their pre-arbitration years, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Kelly Johnson, Dan Uggla, Howie Kendrick, and Rickie Weeks all enter the discussion. Pedroia and Kendrick both have two years before arbitration, so I wouldn’t worry about getting them locked up just yet. The other four all have one pre-arbitration year left. In two years as a starting shortstop, Kinsler has put up pretty similar seasons, and the Rangers should consider locking him up to be Michael Young’s double play partner for the next four or five years. Johnson split time in left field with Brian Jordan and Ryan Langerhans back in 2005 before spending 2006 battling injury and recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned last year at second base and did very well. I think waiting one more year to see if he can do it again is the right move for the Braves. Uggla’s ability to stay at second base has been questioned time and time again. If he’s forced to change positions, his bat goes from remarkable to average. With that question mark hanging in the balance, it would be unwise to offer him an extension at the present time. Despite three straight years as the Milwaukee second baseman, Weeks has yet to put in a full season with the big league club. Many are expecting him to breakout in 2008, and at 25, there’s no reason he can’t. If it was my money, I’d like to see him break out in 2008 before awarding him with a big-time contract.

Recap

Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis should be available on the trade market, and the Astros, Mets, Rockies, and Cubs could all use an upgrade at the position. With multi-year contracts given to free agent second basemen this offseason, the Astros and Mets probably don’t agree. The Diamondbacks should look to extend Orlando Hudson before he leaves as a free agent following the 2008 season. Ian Kinsler is the only pre-arbitration second baseman I’d be worried about signing to an extension right now; I’d wait a year to worry about Dustin Pedroia, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson, and Rickie Weeks.

While writing the divisional “Moves to Make” series, I realized that I was usually making arguments based on an abstract market. When suggesting a player should be traded or that a team should trade for a better player at the position, I wasn’t considering whether or not that trade opportunity actually existed. Although I was paying close attention to when players could become free agents, I wasn’t paying enough attention to their actual salaries. By looking at the overall positional market, I hope to clear these things up. With that in mind, I also don’t want this to become stale, so I’ll try to just point out those things that stand out.

First, we’ll look at the catchers that I feel should be traded, which will be limited to only those that are among the top 30 at the position (i.e. worthy of starting). I’ll try my best to explain why they should be traded and who should be interested.

Trade Market

The trade market at the catching position is relatively thin. After checking and re-checking the list of major league catchers, the list begins and ends with Kenji Johjima.

Kenji Johjima is one of the ten best catchers in the major leagues, but it could be argued that the Mariners’ top prospect Jeff Clement should also be on that list. In Johjima’s two seasons in America, he has hit .289/.327/.442, thrown out 69 of 172 would-be base stealers, and played good defense behind the plate. He also makes $5.2M in 2008. Over the past three seasons in the minors, Clement has hit .319/.386/.522 at high-A in 2005, .288/.386/.525 and .257/.321/.347 at AA and AAA in 2006, and .277/.371/.500 at AAA in 2007. Here and here (the first is free; the second is not, but you can read Clement’s description for free), Kevin Goldstein mentions that Clement is becoming better and better behind the plate and his bat makes him an elite catcher. Plus, Clement won’t be arbitration-eligible until following the 2010 season or later.

To sum that all up, Clement and Johjima will provide roughly equal performance, but Clement is just under $5M cheaper than Johjima. Even if they aren’t equal, there’s no way that Johjima is worth $5M more than Clement to the Mariners, but he’s certainly worth that much to another team. The Mariners’ best shot at the playoffs is this year as Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez enter free agency following the season, and it will be difficult for the Mariners to keep up with the Angels in 2009 and 2010. The Mariners can enhance their shot by trading Johjima to improve in other areas, such as their pitching staff, without much of a drop-off at catcher. The rumored Bedard deal would change things, but I’d much rather trade Johjima for a #3 or #4 starter than Adam Jones for a #1; for that matter, I’d rather have 6 years of Jones than 2 years of Bedard.

Three teams that could really use Kenji Johjima in 2008 are Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Toronto. Any type of trade involving Johjima would be much easier if the Mariners were playing for the future, but that’s not currently the case. The only potential trade I could see involving Johjima would be with Milwaukee because the Reds and Blue Jays don’t have the extra pitching from which to trade. Milwaukee’s starting catcher is Jason Kendall. Kendall only hit .242/.301/.309 last season, and out of 131 attempted steals, he only threw out 20. Both are poor, but the Brewers still gave him $4.25M this offseason to be their starting catcher. Maybe they saw something that no one else did, but I think they’ll be looking for a new catcher once May rolls around. They’ve got surplus starting pitching and just might be able to work out a deal with the Mariners.

Contract Extensions

When looking for whether or not a player should be signed to an extension, I look for players entering the final year of their contract or young stars without long-term contracts but still in their pre-free agency years. Catchers meeting the first criteria include Kenji Johjima, Jason Varitek, Ivan Rodriguez, Gregg Zaun, and Jason Kendall. As I’ve already covered, I think the Mariners should trade Johjima, not re-sign him. If he was traded, his new team would be wise to sign him to a 2- or 3-year extension. Varitek, Rodriguez, and Zaun are old enough that I’d wait until the end of the season before approaching them about an extension, and I’ve already covered Kendall above.

Russell Martin fits the second category. In the past two seasons, Martin has proven that he’s one of the best catchers in the game. He’s hit .288/.366/.454 in the majors while playing good defense behind the plate. He is not a free agent until after the 2012 season, but he’s worth signing to a deal similar to the 6 years, $26.8M Brian McCann got last March. Martin should and would get more, but that type of a deal would lock up his arbitration years and give the Dodgers more payroll certainty going forward.

Recap

The Mariners should trade Kenji Johjima (not Adam Jones) for pitching help, and the Brewers should be first in line for a deal. The Dodgers should work out an extension with Russell Martin.