Easily the hardest team to figure out going into the
offseason is the New York Yankees. There are all kinds of questions surrounding
the club, and it’s not just your typical New York hype. Will they bring back Joe
Torre? Will Alex Rodriguez opt out? Will Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy
Pettitte return? Let’s get to it.
Strengths
In terms of both payroll flexibility and pure talent, the
pre-arbitration starting pitchers are the biggest strength on the Yankees. With
Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy, the Yankees
have four starting pitchers with at least 4 years of service time left before
they are eligible for free agency. While all four won’t start the year in the
rotation (although you never know, Carl Pavano did start opening day), they
will all most likely get a few major league starts in 2008.
Also among the pre-arbitration players on the Yankees are
Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. Cano has now put up back-to-back great seasons
at second base. Although his batting average fell off from the spectacular .342
of last year to .306 this year, his on-base percentage (.365 to .353) and
isolated power (.183 to .182) stayed relatively the same. Meanwhile, Cabrera
took over the center field job this season and proved that he could be an
effective major league center fielder, but his walk rate did plummet from last
year’s 10.9% to 7.3% in 2007. If he can regain those walks, he’ll be an asset
on the field as well as in the Yankees’ checkbook.
Flanking Cabrera in the outfield will be two of Hideki
Matsui, Bobby Abreu, and Johnny Damon. Of course, this is assuming that Abreu’s
$16M club option will be exercised. Given the low risk of one year deals and
the value that Abreu provides on the field, exercising his option should be a
foregone conclusion.
Moving on to ... wait, I’m forgetting someone … let’s see,
I’ve covered the rotation, the outfield, Cano ... Oh yeah, the captain Derek
Jeter will be back in pinstripes for 2008. Despite his defensive shortcomings,
Jeter is still a spectacular player to build a team around.
Concerns
Where should we start? The mainstream media seems to have
the Torre situation well-covered, so we’ll start with A-Rod. As everyone has
heard over and over, Alex Rodriguez and the best agent in baseball Scott Boras
are expected to opt out of his 10-year, $252M contract following the World
Series. Brian Cashman has stated that the Yankees will not pursue Rodriguez if
he chooses to opt out. If they’re unable to sign him to an extension
beforehand, I find this hard to believe. If Rodriguez isn’t a Yankee next
season, the only other guy on the free agent market is current Red Sox third
baseman Mike Lowell. Wilson Betemit is the in-house option (some teams wouldn’t
consider this a bad thing).
Moving up the age spectrum, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera,
and Andy Pettitte have made it known that they will be influenced by the Torre
decision. Posada is coming off the best year of his career at 35 and will be
looking for a multi-year deal. If he does listen to other teams in the
offseason, he will be the best catching option on the market. Other options are
Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, and Yorvit Torrealba.
Can anyone else see Mariano Rivera in a uniform other than
the Yankees? Neither can I, but if Torre is let go, it wouldn’t surprise me for
Rivera to leave as well. He didn’t like the way they treated Bernie Williams or
his own contract situation back in March. If Rivera doesn’t come back, who will
be left in the bullpen? There aren’t many options on the free agent market, and
the only options for the closer’s role within the organization are Joba
Chamberlain (please leave him in the rotation) and Kevin Whelan. Rivera
survived off his cutter, and Whelan is a fastball specialist, throwing four
different variations. That transition would seem fitting to me. Whelan just
might not be ready to make that jump yet. The free agent reliever
merry-go-round features Francisco Cordero with Octavio Dotel (if he opts out of
his contract), the wild card Kerry Wood, and the recently ineffective Eric
Gagne.
Despite the young starters, the rotation could still need
some work. Andy Pettitte has a $16M player option for next season. As mentioned
before, his decision might hinge on whether or not Joe Torre returns. At 35, he’s
probably not done, but he could be done as a Yankee. I’ve already mentioned
four other starters that the Yankees could use, but given their youthfulness,
the Yankees probably shouldn’t rely on all three of the unproven youngsters.
The biggest reason is to keep the innings total down for each of their arms. If
Pettitte, Wang, and Mike Mussina are all in the rotation next season,
Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy could be rotated between the rotation and the
bullpen to limit their innings and keep their arms healthy. Without Pettitte,
that becomes hard and if they aren’t ready to go back down the Pavano trail,
another option is to sign one of Tom Glavine, Kenny Rogers, or Curt Schilling.
All three should be looking for relatively short (1-, 2-, or 3-year) deals and
would slot right into Pettitte’s spot in the above example.
Right now, they have Jason Giambi, Matsui, Cabrera, Damon,
and Abreu to fill the 1B, OF, and DH roles, but the Yankees have never trusted
Giambi’s atrocious defense at first base. If they don’t want to play one of the
outfielders there, Giambi has no spot and needs to be traded. With only one
year and $26M (or two years and $43M) left on the deal, his contract isn’t
quite the albatross it once was. If the Yankees chip in a little cash to move
him, there will be a market for his services. To replace him, the Yankees could
always bring back Doug Mientkiewicz. On the other hand, if they want to bring
in a real first baseman (you know, one that can hit), they could always pursue
someone like Scott Hatteberg or Adam Dunn (if the Reds buy out his option;
anything’s possible – they already hired the assassin at manager).
Overall
Given the loyalty of Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte to Torre,
it would be a mistake to get rid of him now. Losing Posada, Rivera, and
Pettitte would be hard to overcome for any organization, even one with the
financial ability of the Yankees. Supply is low on the free agent market, and
these guys would be hard to replace. Add to it the A-Rod situation, and it
could be meltdown time for the nuclear reactor known as the New York Yankees.
Cashman won’t let this actually happen, but I can’t remember the Yankees ever putting
themselves in a position this risky before.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
