I don’t have the NL version finished yet, but here’s the
first 11 teams (by team name).
Houston Astros –
D
Acquired LHP Randy Wolf for RHP Chad Reineke
Acquired RHP LaTroy Hawkins for INF Matt Cusick
I’m starting to think that the Astros enjoy mediocrity. As a
team filled with veterans, they have no upside. Their core is on the decline,
and there isn’t much help on the way in the farm system. Although the Astros
had basically no shot at the playoffs, they continued to act like they were
contenders. They didn’t really give up much, but why trade away something with
a slim chance of helping in the future for something that has no chance of
helping in the future? It just makes no sense, but that’s been common among
Astros transactions for some time.
Atlanta Braves –
B-
Acquired 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek for 1B Mark
Teixeira
This is a rare trade where I’m basically neutral in opinion.
While the Braves got a major leaguer in return (since their team’s age dictates
that they try to contend again next year), they didn’t really get anything of
impact either. I’m not impressed, but they didn’t give up for nothing either.
While they’ve decided to hold on to Will Ohman, their next challenge is to find
a taker for Mark Kotsay.
Milwaukee Brewers
– A
Acquired LHP CC Sabathia for LF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach
Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL
Acquired 2B Ray Durham for OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve
Hammond
As everyone else has said, the Sabathia trade was great for
the Brewers, so I’m not going to spend any more time on the move. I also like
the acquisition of Durham for a couple of lesser prospects. Rickie Weeks has
only hit righties at a .209/.310/.357 clip while Durham hits them to the tune
of .306/.386/.435. Since Durham hasn’t been hitting lefties this year and Weeks
has, they’re perfect platoon partners for each other.
St. Louis Cardinals
– D
While the Cardinals are spinning their non-moves by saying
that getting Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are like making two great
trades, that doesn’t address the fact that they sacrifice a lot of offense at
their middle infield spots. At 2B and SS, only Aaron Miles has an OPS over .700
at .748. Let me repeat. That’s a lot of offense they’re sacrificing. When it doesn’t
take that good of a player to make an improvement, it’s a shame that you aren’t
able to bring in that upgrade. I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be able
to make the playoffs, but I’ve been wrong about them before.
Chicago Cubs – A
Acquired RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for RHP Sean
Gallagher, LF Matt Murton, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and C Josh Donaldson
Although the four guys they gave up all have value, they
weren’t going to have value for the Cubs. Gallagher could have been a
back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but so can Gaudin. Only Donaldson had much of a
shot to become a player for the Cubs down the road, but they should have
Geovany Soto behind the plate for several years making Donaldson expendable as
well. It comes down to the Cubs adding Rich Harden for close to nothing, and in
the middle of a pennant race, that goes down as a great move.
Arizona Diamondbacks
– C
Signed CF Chris Young to a 5-year, $28 million extension
Acquired 1B Tony Clark for RHP Evan Scribner
Acquired RHP Jon Rauch for 2B Emilio Bonifacio
Signed Dan Haren to a 2-year, $32.5 million extension with
a $15.5 million option for 2013
Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Chris Carpenter
to a three-year extension worth $48.5 million. They haven’t even gotten to the
extension yet, and after his injury problems, he’d likely get less than the
$48.5 million he signed for less than two years ago. With all of the performance
metrics and scouting reports available, it’s possible to somewhat reliably
project hitters four-to-five years into the future. We aren’t there yet with
pitchers, so why are teams signing pitchers to extensions when they’re already
under contract for two more years? These types of moves just don’t make sense.
Every game they pitch in, they perform an unnatural movement 100+ times, and
I’ve seen a statistic mentioned that each pitcher has roughly a 40% chance of
getting hurt during a major league season. When the risk is so great and you
have two more full seasons left until they can leave as free agents, why not
delay the decision as long as possible?
Los Angeles Dodgers
– I
Acquired 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million for C Carlos
Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan
Acquired LF Manny Ramirez and $7 million for 3B Andy LaRoche
and RHP Bryan Morris
With Andy LaRoche still around at the time, I have no idea
why the Dodgers gave up two prospects for Casey Blake. LaRoche is probably
Blake’s equal given full playing time in 2008, and LaRoche would help the
Dodgers plenty over the next five years as well. On the other hand, the Blake
acquisition allowed them to send LaRoche away in a package for Ramirez. The
reason I gave it an incomplete deals with whose playing time these moves takes
away. If it creates an outfield of Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier 5 days
a week, that’s an easy A-. If it puts Ethier on the bench in favor of
slap-hitter Juan Pierre, it drops to a B. The difference between Ethier and
Pierre is that much. To borrow from Joe Sheehan,
the Dodgers have scored 4.76 runs with Kemp leading off compared to only 3.36
with Juan Pierre leading off. Given the lineups since the trade, it’s looking
more like a B as Ethier got his first start since the trade last night.
Before moving onto the next team, let’s look at the Dodgers
in an alternate reality. In this alternate reality, the Dodgers signed Barry
Bonds instead of acquiring either Blake or Manny. It’s a hard argument to say
that Bonds would be more distracting than Manny, so that’s out the window. In
2007, Bonds was a better hitter (.276/.480/.565 to Manny’s .286/.388/.493), and
he’s arguably a better fielder. Manny will play more often, but the Dodgers
have plenty of alternatives to give Bonds the requisite day off once every four
or five days. Instead of giving up four good young players, the Dodgers could
have coughed up the league minimum Bonds has been asking for and fielded a
better team for the rest of the season as LaRoche and Bonds is a better duo
than Blake and Ramirez.
San Francisco Giants
– C
The Giants didn’t really have much of interest to trade
away. They dealt away Ray Durham for a couple of prospects, and they could
always do the same with Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, and Rich Aurilia in August.
Other than the young pitchers, there’s just not much to the Giants, and it’s
going to be a while before there is.
Florida Marlins –
C+
Acquired LHP Arthur Rhodes for RHP Gaby Hernandez
While the Marlins were able to make the typical veteran
left-handed reliever deadline move, they still don’t have a catcher. It’s
possible that they can still get a catcher through a waiver trade, but the
catcher crop will be limited. As a team that has been outscored by 23 runs on
the season, I wouldn’t have high hopes for them making the playoffs.
New York Mets –
D+
Other than a managerial change, the Mets haven’t made any
major moves, other than those involving the DL. While they still have Fernando
Martinez and Jon Niese in the system, they’re also missing at least one corner
outfielder.
Washington Nationals
– D-
Signed SS Cristian Guzman to a 2-year, $16 million extension
Acquired 2B Emilio Bonifacio for RHP Jon Rauch
Released SS Felipe Lopez and Cs Paul Lo Duca and Johnny
Estrada
I already covered
the Guzman extension before it was signed. I don’t want to get too much into
the absurdity involved here, but I didn’t know the dollar amount back then. His
two-year extension is nearly identical in price as his current four-year deal.
Given that the four-year deal is widely considered a failure, what gives the
Nationals the idea that Guzman will be able to give you $16 million in value
over the next two years when he failed to do so in the last four?
In exchange for the next 2+ years of Jon Rauch,
the Nationals got a 23-year old 2B who hasn’t been able to hit for anything of
value since he was in A. It’s just one more Jim Bowden move that leaves you
scratching your head.
I should have the last five teams up by the end of the
weekend.
Since there’s not much of a difference defensively between
the two positions, I’m combining left fielders and right fielders into one
piece.
Impact Outfielders to
be Traded
Adam Dunn was on the trading block last year, but the Reds
didn’t send him packing. Dunn’s contract presented an interesting situation. If
he was traded last year, he could void the 2008 team option for $13 million,
which meant that a team trading for him last year would get half a year just
like they would if they traded for him this year. Now that the Reds have
exercised the option, Dunn has a full no-trade clause through June 15th
when it becomes a limited no-trade. If the Reds fall out of the playoff picture
by the trading deadline, a contender will be able to pick up a big bat for the
stretch run. In addition to Dunn, the Reds could also be looking to trade Ken
Griffey, Jr. Griffey is making $12.5M this year, and his contract contains a
club option for $16.5M in 2009 with a $4M buyout. Given the money, he will most
likely be a free agent following the season, which is why the Reds should be
looking to trade him.
Staying in the NL Central, Jason Bay was rumored to be on
the block early this offseason, but Neal Huntington decided that it wasn’t wise
to trade Bay while his value is at its lowest. If Bay can re-establish himself
this year, he could be on the way out of Pittsburgh.
Impact Outfielder to
be Signed
Barry Bonds is still a free agent. While I don’t know how
much Bonds is looking for, I can tell you that 30 different teams could sign
him and be a better team
on paper. The key there is “on paper,” since I (and everyone else) have no idea
if he negatively affects his teammates’ performance on the field. If he does,
no one knows how much. Bonds had a 1.045 OPS last year in 477 PA. For all the
talk about his legs making him no longer able to play left field full-time, he
appeared in 126 games last year and only missed qualifying for the rate
statistics by 25 PA. Consider this: if you apply the minor league rule for rate
statistics (adding plate appearances until the player qualifies), Bonds would
have led the league in OBP. He had an OBP of 0.480. When you add 25 plate
appearances resulting in outs, his OBP drops to 0.456, which is still 11 points
higher than David Ortiz’s 0.445. Bonds is still a force to be reckoned with on
the field. Whether or not his performance offsets the public relations issues
is something I can’t answer, but I have a feeling that it does.
Contenders Needing a
Corner Outfielder
The Indians are going through spring training with David
Dellucci, Jason Michaels, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ben Francisco in the corners.
When they acquired Dellucci and Michaels, the plan was to platoon them with
Dellucci facing righties and Michaels facing lefties. In 2007, Dellucci dealt
with a torn hamstring tendon and only managed a .240/.306/.403 line against
righties. In his career, he has hit .269/.355/.464 against RHP. As a result of
Dellucci’s injury, Michaels saw more time against RHP than expected, putting up
a meager .252/.285/.351 line against them. He was much better against LHP at
.287/.359/.441. Over his career, he has hit lefties to the tune of
.300/.382/.460. If they can both return to their career levels, the Indians
will be fine in one corner. In right field, Gutierrez hit .266/.318/.472. If he
can take another step forward, the Indians will be respectable in both outfield
corners. However, that’s three players that have to outperform expectations to
have an acceptable corner outfield situation. More likely, one of them won’t,
which creates a need to acquire someone to fill in at the spot. If the Indians
can acquire someone of the caliber of Adam Dunn, Jason Bay (if he returns to
previous level), or Barry Bonds, it will go a long way in their attempt to stay
atop the AL Central.
Moises Alou hasn't stayed healthy for a full season in three years, and that's not about to change now. Alou will miss at least the first month of the season following hernia surgery. His
backup is Endy Chavez. After a better than expected 2006, Chavez fell back to
hitting .287/.325/.380 in 2007 – more in line with his career .271/.311/.375. When Alou returns, there's no guarantee that he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the way. If the Mets have to go too long without Alou, they'll need a better replacement than Chavez to win the NL East.
Just Play the
Youngsters Already
I hate that it seems like I’m picking on the Dodgers here,
but other organizations think that Andy LaRoche (now injured), Andre Ethier,
and Matt Kemp are ready to hold down starting jobs. It seems like the Dodgers
are afraid to give their own homegrown guys the jobs. They reluctantly gave the
1B job to James Loney last year, and he ran with it. It’s time they give the
starting corner spots to Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Juan Pierre barely hit
enough for a center fielder, and there’s no way he hits enough for a corner
outfielder. Forget the money they’re paying him. They’re going to pay him it
whether he’s in the lineup or not. They’ll do better in the standings with him
on the bench.
Next Year’s Free
Agents
Next year’s free agent corner outfield class currently
consists of Dunn, Pat Burrell, Alou, Juan Rivera, Jacque Jones, Bobby Abreu,
Milton Bradley, and Brian Giles. Vladimir Guerrero could join the list if the
Angels give him the $3M buyout to decline their $15M option for 2009. As long
as Vlad doesn’t fall apart in 2007, expect the Angels to exercise that option
and keep Vlad around for at least one more year. Given the age and quality of
the class, the only player I’d recommend for a contract extension would be Burrell.
The Phillies’ current offensive core is at or past their prime and signed
through 2011. Extending Burrell with a 3- or 4-year deal would ensure that the
Phillies will remain contenders through the end of those contracts.
I would mention Dunn as a guy to extend instead of trade,
but the Reds would have to be sure that Dunn can stay in left for four or five
years. I doubt he can stay in the outfield that long. If he could move to first
with Joey Votto going to the outfield, I’d recommend an extension, but I don’t
know if Votto can play the outfield.
Pre-Free Agent Stars
Several players have made this list. We’ll start with a pair
of teammates in Milwaukee. Ryan Braun and Corey Hart put up great seasons last
year in their debuts as full-time players. While Braun was horrible playing
third base, he should be better in left field. Given the transition to left, some
would suggest waiting another year to ink Braun to guaranteed money, but the
bat is so special that he would have to be worse than anything we’ve seen in
left field for him to not be worth it. Last year was Hart’s second year in the
majors, but he wrestled the starting job out of Kevin Mench’s hands and never
looked back. At 6’6”, Hart has the potential to be a 30-30 guy in right field.
Other players worthy of a multi-year contract rather than
the year-to-year contract renewal and arbitration process are Hunter Pence,
Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.
Recap
The NL Central has three corner outfielders that could be
placed on the trading block this year and make an impact for a contender: Adam
Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Jason Bay. Free agent Barry Bonds can help all 30 teams
on the field. The Indians have three guys for two spots, but they will probably
need to upgrade at one of the spots. If/when Moises Alou gets hurt, the Mets
will find Endy Chavez lacking the bat needed to man a corner spot. The Dodgers
need to give their homegrown guys shots at holding down starting jobs because
Juan Pierre doesn’t cut it as a corner outfielder. The Phillies should try to work
out an extension with Pat Burrell. If the Reds can find a spot for Dunn down
the road, they should try to extend his contract rather than trade him. If they
can’t, he should be traded to a contender midseason. The Brewers have two star
corner outfielders in Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and they should try to extend
their contracts. The same can be said for Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick
Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.
I’m sorry that I didn’t get this up here sooner. Fantasy baseball got in the way. We’ve completed catchers and infielders in
this series, so next up are the outfielders. I’m going to start with center
fielders because they’re usually harder to find than corner outfielders. If a
team has an extra quality center fielder, he can move to a corner with no
problem. If a team has an extra quality corner outfielder, he’s most likely
relegated to the bench because his defense isn’t good enough for center.
Impact Center Fielders
to Be Traded
Over the past two offseasons, the San Francisco Giants have
spent a ton of money on two players that most likely aren’t worth it: Barry
Zito and Aaron Rowand. What makes it worse is that it might be four or five
years before the Giants re-enter the NL playoff picture. All the talk has been
about how happy the players are now that Barry Bonds is gone. I’ve got a
feeling that finishing last will make those players change their minds about
the situation. Rowand is due $52 million over the next five years – all that
for a guy with two good seasons at the plate in his career (2004 and 2007). As
for trading him, it won’t happen because he has a full no-trade clause this
year, but he only has a limited no-trade clause in subsequent years. If he has
a good year in 2008, it will be time to unload him.
One other guy that’s been rumored to be available through
trade is Coco Crisp, but I don’t agree with that decision. With Coco Crisp,
they’ve got somebody who can act as a sub for six positions without a ton of
loss at each. Obviously, he can sub for the three outfield spots and the DH.
With Kevin Youkilis on the roster, he can also sub for first and third with Manny
Ramirez moving to DH, David Ortiz moving to first, and either Youkilis or Mike
Lowell at third. Now, let’s list the starters at those positions (if we
consider Crisp as the bench guy): J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny, Ortiz,
Youkilis, and Lowell. There are a few guys in that list that have had injury
problems. Plus, Crisp is only set to make $10.5M over the next two seasons. He
could be worth twice that. For these reasons, the Red Sox should keep Coco
Crisp as insurance.
Contenders Needing a Center
Fielder
Atlanta Braves traded for Mark
Kotsay in an attempt to fill the void left by Andruw Jones’s free agent
departure, but it has been three years since Kotsay has been both healthy and
productive. The other options – Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson – don’t provide
much certainty for Braves’ fans either. It will be at least half a year until
Jordan Schafer is ready to take over. As currently constructed, the Braves are
in the mix for the wild card, and improving their center fielder would go a
long way toward getting back to the playoffs. Maybe they could convince the Red
Sox to trade Crisp.
Next
Year’s Free Agents
Next year’s center field market won’t
be anything like this past offseason. Mike Cameron and Mark Kotsay are the best
free agents-to-be, but the Brewers hold an option for 2009 on Cameron. Given
the alternatives, the Brewers might determine that he’s worth the $10 million
to keep around for one more year.
Pre-Free
Agent Stars
B.J. Upton tops the list here. Moved
away from his error-prone tendencies in the infield, Upton had a great year in
2007. His incredible bat was finally on display at the major league level, and
he will continue to prove why scouts were so high on him in the past. Like
several of his teammates, the Rays should be trying to lock up Upton’s
arbitration and possibly one or two of his free agent years.
Several players could make their way
onto this list with good 2008 seasons: Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Melky Cabrera,
Lastings Milledge, Chris Young, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Pie, Cameron Maybin, and
Josh Hamilton.
Recap
The Giants signed Aaron Rowand for some unknown reason, and
they should look to trade him when his full no-trade clause becomes limited
following the season. The Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp to guard against injuries
among their starters at six positions. Despite trading for Mark Kotsay, the
Braves still need a center fielder. Next year’s free agent class is not very
impressive, which could mean the Brewers will exercise their 2009 option on
Mike Cameron’s contract. B.J. Upton is an elite player deserving of a contract
extension, and a whole slew of players could prove themselves deserving with good
2008s.
I recently terminated my email account associated with my Fox Sports account. Unless I'm blind, you can't change your email address for your profile. This means two things: 1) I won't receive email updates when you post comments, so my responses will be more delayed than normal. 2) I'll be looking to move my blog, but I'll let you know where it ends up.
As I expected, things are picking up as we move around the
diamond. There’s a lot to talk about at the keystone, so let’s get to it.
Trade Market
One of the second baseman that I think should be traded has
already been mentioned several times in trade rumors this offseason – Brian Roberts.
Another player I think should be made available is Mark Ellis. Roberts is due
$6.6M and $8M the next two seasons before becoming a free agent, and playing on
a bad Baltimore club, he isn’t worth that price. Put him on a contender, and
he’s easily worth that salary. The same case could be made for Ellis, who is
due $5M in 2008 and will be a free agent following the season. Both teams have
already shown a willingness to trade away veterans this offseason, and Roberts
and Ellis should be on their ways out.
As for who should be trying to acquire either one of these
players, the first team that comes to mind is Houston, who just gave a 3-year,
$15M contract to Kazuo Matsui. Matsui only hit .249/.304/.333 away from Coors
Field last year, and he was protected against left-handed pitchers as he only had
70 ABs in which he hit .271/.311/.386 against them. It doesn’t appear that
Houston would have what it takes to acquire Roberts anyway, but it’s not like
they gave Baltimore much for Miguel Tejada either.
The next tier of teams that should be interested in
upgrading at second consists of the New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, and Chicago
Cubs. Like the Astros, the New York Mets just signed a player to a multi-year
deal to play second base, but Luis Castillo has been on the decline the last
couple of years. At 32, he’s no longer the speedster he was in Florida, and
he’s only managed to hit .296/.358/.370 and .301/.362/.359 the last two years.
Those would be acceptable lines if his defense was better. Since Castillo will
make $6M for each of the next 4 years, I think it’s safe to say that the Mets
aren’t looking to replace him anytime soon.
The Rockies are going into camp with the second base job up
for grabs between Jayson Nix, Marcus Giles, Omar Quintanilla, and Ian Stewart.
If Stewart can play an acceptable second base, the Rockies could be scratched
off the list, but there are doubts that he can make the transition from third.
One of the Rockies’ top prospects is shortstop Chris Nelson. With Troy
Tulowitzki locked into the shortstop spot at the major league level, maybe they
could part with Nelson in a package for Roberts. A move for Roberts would
considerably improve their chances of making a return trip to the postseason.
Although the Cubs have been rumored to be trading for Brian
Roberts for quite a while, I actually think they’d be better off asking about
Mark Ellis. Right now, their middle infield spots will be occupied by two of
Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, Eric Patterson, Ryan Theriot, and Ronny Cedeno. If
they acquire Roberts, the shortstop job would be up to DeRosa and Theriot
(assuming Cedeno gets traded). If instead they got Ellis, they could play him
at either second or short with the remaining spot going to one of DeRosa,
Fontenot, Patterson, Theriot, and Cedeno (minus whoever gets traded). If they
get a deal done for either one, the real key to how much they’ve improved their
’08 playoff odds is whether or not Theriot remains in the starting lineup.
Contract
Extensions
Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Jeff
Kent are all free agents after the season. I’ve already covered Ellis, and Kent
contemplated retirement following the 2007 season, eliminating both from the contract
extension discussion unless Ellis gets traded. Regarding Hudson, the
Diamondbacks got Chris Burke in the Jose Valverde trade, and some speculate
that Burke will be Hudson’s successor in Arizona. While I wanted the Astros to
give him Craig Biggio’s starting job for a couple of years now, I don’t see him
as a great replacement for Hudson in Arizona. Burke’s going to be 28 when the
season starts, and if he hasn’t proven his worth as a starter so far, I doubt
he ever will. He has a career .249/.319/.377 line over 1020 major league ABs. At
30, Hudson’s entering his decline phase, but a two- or three-year extension
could help keep the Diamondbacks at the top of a tough division.
When looking at young second baseman
worth offering an extension during their pre-arbitration years, Dustin Pedroia,
Ian Kinsler, Kelly Johnson, Dan Uggla, Howie Kendrick, and Rickie Weeks all
enter the discussion. Pedroia and Kendrick both have two years before arbitration,
so I wouldn’t worry about getting them locked up just yet. The other four all
have one pre-arbitration year left. In two years as a starting shortstop, Kinsler
has put up pretty similar seasons, and the Rangers should consider locking him
up to be Michael Young’s double play partner for the next four or five years. Johnson
split time in left field with Brian Jordan and Ryan Langerhans back in 2005
before spending 2006 battling injury and recovering from Tommy John surgery. He
returned last year at second base and did very well. I think waiting one more
year to see if he can do it again is the right move for the Braves. Uggla’s
ability to stay at second base has been questioned time and time again. If he’s
forced to change positions, his bat goes from remarkable to average. With that
question mark hanging in the balance, it would be unwise to offer him an
extension at the present time. Despite three straight years as the Milwaukee
second baseman, Weeks has yet to put in a full season with the big league club.
Many are expecting him to breakout in 2008, and at 25, there’s no reason he
can’t. If it was my money, I’d like to see him break out in 2008 before
awarding him with a big-time contract.
Recap
Brian Roberts and Mark Ellis should
be available on the trade market, and the Astros, Mets, Rockies, and Cubs could
all use an upgrade at the position. With multi-year contracts given to free
agent second basemen this offseason, the Astros and Mets probably don’t agree.
The Diamondbacks should look to extend Orlando Hudson before he leaves as a
free agent following the 2008 season. Ian Kinsler is the only pre-arbitration
second baseman I’d be worried about signing to an extension right now; I’d wait
a year to worry about Dustin Pedroia, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson, and Rickie
Weeks.
Back on Monday, I introduced my new “Balancing the Market”
series with catchers. To start off, I wasn’t so sure of the concept and first
base isn’t going to make that go away, but I have a feeling things will pick up
as we move around the diamond. For now, the format will remain the same. Next
up is first baseman, and this is going to be short.
Trade Market
No one really has a spare first baseman that can make an
impact in 2008 for someone else, so there’s not really much of a market here.
The closest players I can find are Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, and Richie
Sexson. Johnson needs to prove he’s healthy and can still produce, Teixeira
would have to see his team fall out of contention, and Sexson would have to see
his team fall out of contention and prove he can still produce. Check back in
July; there might be a few first basemen on the trade market then.
Contract
Extensions
Contracts expiring at the end of the
season include Teixeira, Sexson, and Carlos Delgado ($16M option with a $4M
buyout). Teixeira is the only one worth trying to extend before the season.
Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard stand
out as players in their pre-free agency years that are worth re-signing. Both
players have four years before free agency, but remember that Howard is already
28. Given his age, Howard is worth a 3-year extension with an extra club option
year (pre-FA arbitration is still an option if the team declines). On the other
hand, Fielder is only 23. In an attempt to lock up his peak years, I’d wait until
next year to discuss an extension.
Recap
For this short of an article, do we
even need a recap? Nick Johnson, Mark Teixeira, and Richie Sexson could all
make their way to the trade block this season. In the meantime, the Braves
should try to sign Teixeira to an extension, while the Phillies should try to
lock up Howard’s arbitration years. If the Brewers are confident that Fielder
will be a force for years to come, they could work out a deal now, but I’d
rather wait until next offseason to give him that extension – give him one more
year to prove he’s worth the long-term deal.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders