Coming into 2007, the Chicago Cubs were a bit of a mystery. After finishing 66-96 in 2006, the Chicago Cubs committed $291M to free agents in the offseason. While many of the contracts were questioned, how the team would perform in ’07 was also questioned. After a division title and short-lived playoff run, the Cubs are again a mystery heading into the offseason. The team is slated to be sold this offseason, and it is unknown how the new ownership will handle the team. Given the players under contract for next year, they should be back in contention for the Central once again.

Strengths

Although Derrek Lee has not regained (and probably never will regain) the power stroke that led to his 46-homer 2005 season, he is still an asset at first base. Joining him in the lineup are third baseman Aramis Ramirez and outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Soriano will be a significant liability towards the back-end of that contract, but for 2008, he’s still a force in that lineup even if he’s ill-suited to the leadoff role (.337 OBP).

Out on the mound, the Cubs have a few very good pitchers. Carlos Zambrano struggled in the early-going (5.77 ERA in April), but he eventually got it going and finished with a 3.95 ERA over 216.1 innings. Left-handers Rich Hill and Ted Lilly were also successful in 2007 with very similar seasons. Hill went 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA, and Lilly beat him in both categories with 207 innings and a 3.83 ERA. They also reeled in Carlos Marmol’s electric arm, and he contributed with a dominant relief season. In 2006, Marmol walked 85 batters in 138.1 innings. This year, he only walked 47 in 110.1 innings. That’s 38 fewer walks in 28 fewer innings, while increasing his strikeout total from 127 to 144. He also didn’t just become less wild out of the strike zone; he made fewer mistakes in the strike zone. After giving up 14 HR in his 77.1 major league innings in 2006, he only gave up 3 in his 69.1 major league innings this year. Put it all together, and that’s how you go from a 6.08 ERA to a 1.43 ERA from one season to the next. He shouldn’t be counted on to be that dominant again next year, but his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of 2.68 is still pretty dominant.

Another strength going forward is the youth that is ####ing on the proverbial door to the majors. Lou Piniella gave the starting catcher’s job to Geovany Soto down the stretch, and it paid off. After a huge year at AAA in which he hit .353/.424/.652, Soto hit .389/.433/.667 in 60 major league plate appearances. With Jason Kendall a free agent, the 2008 job should be Soto’s to lose. He was joined in Iowa by Felix Pie (.362/.410/.563), Ronny Cedeno (.359/.422/.537), and Eric Patterson (.297/.362/.455). These numbers show that there isn’t much left for these young players to do in Iowa. If the new ownership is progressive, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pie and Cedeno gradually take over everyday jobs in Chicago at some point in 2008.

Concerns

If Jim Hendry wants to continue to benefit from their farm system, they must stop making guaranteed bad trades like giving up Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry for Steve Trachsel. Regardless of what they gave up, Trachsel is no longer a worthwhile addition to a contending team. When a 36 year old pitcher is walking more guys than he is striking out, what could a team possibly see left in his arm? As for the prospects given up, Cherry is a capable middle reliever and Moore is a major league-ready third baseman that should start in Baltimore next season.

Hidden by the stolen bases and gritty play on the field, Ryan Theriot couldn’t repeat his 2006 numbers this year. Capped off with a .202/.257/.263 September, Theriot only hit .266/.326/.346. Replacing him at shortstop with Ronny Cedeno could not only increase the offensive output of the position, it will give a boost to the pitching staff on defense. Theriot is probably best used in a utility role.

As for signing free agents, this offseason should not be as eventful as last year. The Cubs enter the offseason looking for an outfielder and a starting pitcher. The alternatives aren’t great, and the best solutions are probably already within the organization. Matt Murton can do more than hit lefties (.296/.365/.455 career hitter), but if they want to take advantage of his platoon numbers, they could bring back Cliff Floyd. Floyd has a mutual option on his contract, although it’s unclear how much that’s worth and he’s also considering retirement. If they go the platoon route, Murton has hit .326/.399/.510 against lefties over his career, and Floyd has hit .281/.368/.491 against righties over his career.

It has been rumored that Ryan Dempster could be moved back to the rotation after four years of relief work, which could free up Jason Marquis as a trade chip. A year removed from a 6.02 ERA with the Cardinals, I’m not sure why someone would be interested in trading for Marquis, but I’ll run with it. That would leave a rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Dempster, and another guy. That guy could be either Sean Marshall or Kevin Hart. Marshall has pitched well in the starting role this year with a 3.92 ERA over 103.1 major league innings. When combined with his 1.82 ERA over 24.2 AAA innings, he should be a logical choice for next year’s rotation. It will come down to how he pitches in less than a month’s work next spring, which isn’t very logical, so only time will tell who opens the season in the Chicago rotation.

Overall

As much as Cubs’ fans like to play the cursed card, the ship has been righted, and their path to a 2008 playoff appearance is clear. Their offseason problems aren’t really that big and can be easily solved. Down the road with the multi-year contracts getting rich and the players old, the organization will have problems, but for 2008, they look to be in pretty good shape.

---

Wow, I got through a whole Cubs post without mentioning Kerry Wood or Mark Prior…Oops...By the way, Wood is a free agent and could be moving on.

Replacement Level
83 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG

First Tier
1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.

2. David Wright, New York Mets
Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.

5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.

Second Tier
6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.

7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.

8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks
The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.

9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.

Third Tier
10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.

Fourth Tier
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox
14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics
15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers
16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres

If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.

Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.

---

Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.