I don’t have the NL version finished yet, but here’s the first 11 teams (by team name).

Houston Astros – D

Acquired LHP Randy Wolf for RHP Chad Reineke

Acquired RHP LaTroy Hawkins for INF Matt Cusick

I’m starting to think that the Astros enjoy mediocrity. As a team filled with veterans, they have no upside. Their core is on the decline, and there isn’t much help on the way in the farm system. Although the Astros had basically no shot at the playoffs, they continued to act like they were contenders. They didn’t really give up much, but why trade away something with a slim chance of helping in the future for something that has no chance of helping in the future? It just makes no sense, but that’s been common among Astros transactions for some time.

 

Atlanta Braves – B-

Acquired 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek for 1B Mark Teixeira

This is a rare trade where I’m basically neutral in opinion. While the Braves got a major leaguer in return (since their team’s age dictates that they try to contend again next year), they didn’t really get anything of impact either. I’m not impressed, but they didn’t give up for nothing either. While they’ve decided to hold on to Will Ohman, their next challenge is to find a taker for Mark Kotsay.

 

Milwaukee Brewers – A

Acquired LHP CC Sabathia for LF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL

Acquired 2B Ray Durham for OF Darren Ford and LHP Steve Hammond

As everyone else has said, the Sabathia trade was great for the Brewers, so I’m not going to spend any more time on the move. I also like the acquisition of Durham for a couple of lesser prospects. Rickie Weeks has only hit righties at a .209/.310/.357 clip while Durham hits them to the tune of .306/.386/.435. Since Durham hasn’t been hitting lefties this year and Weeks has, they’re perfect platoon partners for each other.

 

St. Louis Cardinals – D

While the Cardinals are spinning their non-moves by saying that getting Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are like making two great trades, that doesn’t address the fact that they sacrifice a lot of offense at their middle infield spots. At 2B and SS, only Aaron Miles has an OPS over .700 at .748. Let me repeat. That’s a lot of offense they’re sacrificing. When it doesn’t take that good of a player to make an improvement, it’s a shame that you aren’t able to bring in that upgrade. I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be able to make the playoffs, but I’ve been wrong about them before.

 

Chicago Cubs – A

Acquired RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for RHP Sean Gallagher, LF Matt Murton, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and C Josh Donaldson

Although the four guys they gave up all have value, they weren’t going to have value for the Cubs. Gallagher could have been a back-of-the-rotation pitcher, but so can Gaudin. Only Donaldson had much of a shot to become a player for the Cubs down the road, but they should have Geovany Soto behind the plate for several years making Donaldson expendable as well. It comes down to the Cubs adding Rich Harden for close to nothing, and in the middle of a pennant race, that goes down as a great move.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks – C

Signed CF Chris Young to a 5-year, $28 million extension

Acquired 1B Tony Clark for RHP Evan Scribner

Acquired RHP Jon Rauch for 2B Emilio Bonifacio

Signed Dan Haren to a 2-year, $32.5 million extension with a $15.5 million option for 2013

Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Chris Carpenter to a three-year extension worth $48.5 million. They haven’t even gotten to the extension yet, and after his injury problems, he’d likely get less than the $48.5 million he signed for less than two years ago. With all of the performance metrics and scouting reports available, it’s possible to somewhat reliably project hitters four-to-five years into the future. We aren’t there yet with pitchers, so why are teams signing pitchers to extensions when they’re already under contract for two more years? These types of moves just don’t make sense. Every game they pitch in, they perform an unnatural movement 100+ times, and I’ve seen a statistic mentioned that each pitcher has roughly a 40% chance of getting hurt during a major league season. When the risk is so great and you have two more full seasons left until they can leave as free agents, why not delay the decision as long as possible?

 

Los Angeles Dodgers – I

Acquired 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million for C Carlos Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan

Acquired LF Manny Ramirez and $7 million for 3B Andy LaRoche and RHP Bryan Morris

With Andy LaRoche still around at the time, I have no idea why the Dodgers gave up two prospects for Casey Blake. LaRoche is probably Blake’s equal given full playing time in 2008, and LaRoche would help the Dodgers plenty over the next five years as well. On the other hand, the Blake acquisition allowed them to send LaRoche away in a package for Ramirez. The reason I gave it an incomplete deals with whose playing time these moves takes away. If it creates an outfield of Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier 5 days a week, that’s an easy A-. If it puts Ethier on the bench in favor of slap-hitter Juan Pierre, it drops to a B. The difference between Ethier and Pierre is that much. To borrow from Joe Sheehan, the Dodgers have scored 4.76 runs with Kemp leading off compared to only 3.36 with Juan Pierre leading off. Given the lineups since the trade, it’s looking more like a B as Ethier got his first start since the trade last night.

Before moving onto the next team, let’s look at the Dodgers in an alternate reality. In this alternate reality, the Dodgers signed Barry Bonds instead of acquiring either Blake or Manny. It’s a hard argument to say that Bonds would be more distracting than Manny, so that’s out the window. In 2007, Bonds was a better hitter (.276/.480/.565 to Manny’s .286/.388/.493), and he’s arguably a better fielder. Manny will play more often, but the Dodgers have plenty of alternatives to give Bonds the requisite day off once every four or five days. Instead of giving up four good young players, the Dodgers could have coughed up the league minimum Bonds has been asking for and fielded a better team for the rest of the season as LaRoche and Bonds is a better duo than Blake and Ramirez.

 

San Francisco Giants – C

The Giants didn’t really have much of interest to trade away. They dealt away Ray Durham for a couple of prospects, and they could always do the same with Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, and Rich Aurilia in August. Other than the young pitchers, there’s just not much to the Giants, and it’s going to be a while before there is.

 

Florida Marlins – C+

Acquired LHP Arthur Rhodes for RHP Gaby Hernandez

While the Marlins were able to make the typical veteran left-handed reliever deadline move, they still don’t have a catcher. It’s possible that they can still get a catcher through a waiver trade, but the catcher crop will be limited. As a team that has been outscored by 23 runs on the season, I wouldn’t have high hopes for them making the playoffs.

 

New York Mets – D+

Other than a managerial change, the Mets haven’t made any major moves, other than those involving the DL. While they still have Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese in the system, they’re also missing at least one corner outfielder.

 

Washington Nationals – D-

Signed SS Cristian Guzman to a 2-year, $16 million extension

Acquired 2B Emilio Bonifacio for RHP Jon Rauch

Released SS Felipe Lopez and Cs Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada

I already covered the Guzman extension before it was signed. I don’t want to get too much into the absurdity involved here, but I didn’t know the dollar amount back then. His two-year extension is nearly identical in price as his current four-year deal. Given that the four-year deal is widely considered a failure, what gives the Nationals the idea that Guzman will be able to give you $16 million in value over the next two years when he failed to do so in the last four?

In exchange for the next 2+ years of Jon Rauch, the Nationals got a 23-year old 2B who hasn’t been able to hit for anything of value since he was in A. It’s just one more Jim Bowden move that leaves you scratching your head.

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I should have the last five teams up by the end of the weekend.

Coming into the season, there was a lot of evidence that Andy LaRoche was ready to step forward into a starting job at 3B. Heading into the season, LaRoche’s PECOTA projection said that he was ready to be an everyday player. Back on February 1, Kevin Goldstein said in his Top 11 Prospects series, “Almost everyone believes LaRoche is ready to be an everyday player except the Dodgers.” In spring training, he got hurt, and Blake DeWitt came out of nowhere to put up good numbers for the months of April and May (mostly just May). Before LaRoche returned to the majors, he hit .318/.400/.364 in 22 ABs in AA and .267/.444/.414 in 116 ABs in AAA. Since his call-up in June, he has yet to be given a chance to claim the starting 3B spot as he’s only started back-to-back games once, which brings me back to Kevin Goldstein’s statement prior to the season. Why don’t the Dodgers think LaRoche can play every day in the major leagues?

On top of his lack of a chance at the starting job, Ned Colletti has stated that he’s looking for a run-producing third baseman. Can’t you at least give LaRoche a shot before you look outside the organization? Sure, he’s hitting .174/.283/.326 in 46 ABs, but that’s what happens to a young player when he doesn’t play. Once again, let me mention that he’s started back-to-back games only once in the last six weeks. When you get deeper into the data, you see that he’s walked more than he’s struck out, which indicates that he’s showing good plate discipline and not being overmatched at the plate. You also see that his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is only .158. It’s been found that BABIP correlates well with the player’s line drive rate (expected BABIP = LD% + .120). LaRoche’s line drive rate is 15.4%, which means that his expected BABIP is .274. If you raise his BABIP to what it should be expected to be going forward, his line goes from .174/.283/.326 to .261/.358/.413. That’s still not great for a third baseman, but it’s also assuming the additional hits that fall in are all singles. It’s enough to suggest that LaRoche deserves a shot at the starting job.

If the Dodgers want to acquire a “run-producing third baseman,” they can do that, but in the meantime, at least make sure he’s not already in your organization. It’s time to give Andy LaRoche a shot.

I’d like to say that I’m going to fly through the remaining positions, but I’m going to be flying out-of-town for a few days. I’m unsure how much blog work (if any) I’ll get done during that time. Hopefully, I’ll get something back up here by the beginning of next week.

Impact Third Basemen to Be Traded

Brandon Inge has been the name mentioned most often in this spot as he wants out of Detroit, but his contract will be hard to move. Nineteen million over the next three years is hard to justify for a third baseman that hit .236/.312/.376 a year ago.

Ian Stewart will be competing for the second base job in Colorado this spring. If he fails to win the job, he’s blocked by Garrett Atkins at his natural position, and he’d be a very valuable chip if made available. The Rockies could use him to get a missing piece of the puzzle later this season.

This name might surprise people: Troy Glaus. Glaus was already traded once this season, but the Cardinals don’t look like they’ll be contenders this year. Next year doesn’t look much better. If you remember back to his actual trade this offseason, he had to waive a no-trade clause to go from Toronto to St. Louis. It’s very doubtful he’d do it again anytime soon, so he’s one name that can be safely crossed back off the list.

Contenders Needing a Third Baseman

Back on January 28th, the Philadelphia Phillies tried to place a patch over their third base hole by inking Pedro Feliz to a two-year deal worth $8.5M. The only problem is that Feliz isn’t much of an upgrade over the Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms/Eric Bruntlett platoon he’s replacing. Feliz has only topped the .300 mark in OBP once his entire career, and that was back in 2004. He’s moving from A####mp;T Park to Citizens Bank Park, which should help him get over .300 this year, but getting an improvement will help to close that Santana-sized gap that New York created. It would be great if they could get Ian Stewart to complete their infield picture for the next four years, but they don’t have much to offer that would help the Rockies. Until teams start to give up on ’08 at the trading deadline, there isn’t much out there to help the Phillies.

Put Me In, Coach

Andy LaRoche has been waiting for his shot to be the starting third baseman in Los Angeles, and it should be his to lose this spring. The Dodgers have used Nomar Garciaparra to block both James Loney and Andy LaRoche in the past. Last year, Loney took control of the first base job, and this year, LaRoche should follow suit. The question remains – will Joe Torre start the rookie over the veteran?

Next Year’s Free Agents

Casey Blake and Joe Crede make up this list, and I think it’s safe to say both will have to wait until next year to see their next contracts.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Miguel Cabrera is the easy name to mention. Cabrera will make $11.3M this year, and he’s arbitration-eligible for one more season before his free agency. Even if he’s forced to move to first in a couple years, his bat is so outstanding that he’ll be worth whatever he and the Tigers can hammer out.

Ryan Zimmerman isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, but I think he’s proven enough in massive RFK to be signed to a long-term extension. He’s their current and future franchise player, so it’s time to get the deal out of the way.

These guys haven’t reached this stage yet, but they’ve got the potential to be on this list a year from now: Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion.

Recap

Brandon Inge, Ian Stewart, and Troy Glaus (if he’ll agree to it) are trading block guys for me. The Phillies need to upgrade their third base spot again to make up ground on the Mets. Andy LaRoche deserves to be starting over Nomar Garciaparra in LA. Casey Blake and Joe Crede will be next year’s free agent third basemen. Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Zimmerman should be signed long-term. Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Andy LaRoche, and Edwin Encarnacion could make their way onto the extension list with good 2008 seasons.

Unlike the team I covered yesterday, today's team is actually eliminated from the playoff chase. The New York Yankees only need one win or one Tiger loss to eliminate the Detroit Tigers. In the other league, the Los Angeles Dodgers are officially eliminated after last night's loss and Padre victory.

Strengths

Contrary to what Jeff Kent thinks, the youngsters are this team's greatest strength. Kent is frustrated and mistakenly taking it out on the young guys' inexperience, although the youngsters have been a lot better than the veterans they're replacing. Kent has hinted at retirement in the offseason, but if he chooses to return and the Dodgers exercise their $9M team option, he'll continue to be one of the best hitting second baseman in the league. The option should be a no-brainer for the Dodgers to exercise, and given general manager Ned Colletti's affinity for veterans, it should be picked up.

As for the youngsters, there's catcher Russell Martin (.297/.380/.472 at 24), first baseman James Loney (.335/.384/.538 at 23), shortstop Chin-Lung Hu (.318/.337/.505 as a 23 year old in AAA and possibly the best defensive shortstop currently in the majors), third baseman Andy LaRoche (.309/.399/.589 as a 23 year old in AAA, including .365/.447/.817 since the All-Star break), outfielders Matt Kemp (.331/.364/.509 at 22), Andre Ethier (.288/.353/.458 at 25), and Delwyn Young (.337/.384/.571 as a 25 year old in AAA). Given the statistics, all seven of these guys deserve an everyday job in the majors. Once you get the scouting opinion, six of these seven deserve an everyday job (Delwyn Young is considered a fourth outfielder in the end). Taking those six along with Kent, Rafael Furcal, and Juan Pierre, it would be nice if they could find a way to get all but Pierre on the field everyday (teams need to learn that the ability to get on base is more important than the ability to take the next one). However, that would leave them with five infielders and two outfielders, which keeps Pierre in the lineup. So who gets kept out of the everyday lineup? It wouldn't surprise me to see the Dodgers make the mistake of 2007 all over again and play Nomar Garciaparra, Pierre, Furcal, and Kent at the expense of LaRoche, Hu, and Young. It would be nice to see the team bench Garciaparra and trade Furcal for some pitching help since you can never have too much of that.

Moving to the rotation, the Dodgers are hoping for Jason Schmidt to make a full recovery in time for spring training, but everyone rehabs differently. Since Schmidt suffered a shoulder injury, his velocity will let you know if he's ready. The rest of the rotation will be made up of Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and 23 year old Chad Billingsley (that Logan White really knows how to run a scouting department). The fifth spot in the rotation could be up for grabs among Esteban Loaiza, Mark Hendrickson, and Eric Stults. If you're wondering where all the young arms are (other than Billingsley), 19 year old Clayton Kershaw is regarded as the best left handed pitcher in the minor leagues, if not the best regardless of handedness. Kershaw made it up to AA, but after only five starts there, he's probably due to return to Jacksonville for next year. Splitting time between Low-A and AA, he had a 2.95 ERA and 163 strikeouts over 122 innings.

In the later innings, the Dodgers have turned to Joe Beimel, 23 year old Jonathan Broxton, and Takashi Saito to hammer things down, and they haven't disappointed. Beimel will be due arbitration, and I think Saito hasn't even reached arbitration yet. Given that, all three will be back next year and could be joined by 23 year old Jonathan Meloan. Meloan has not pitched well in his four innings in the majors, but at AAA, he dominated with 91 strikeouts and a 2.03 ERA over 66.2 innings.

Weaknesses

Other than the aforementioned fifth starter spot and Colletti's affinity for experience over talent, the Dodgers don't have many weaknesses. Sometimes, a great scouting department really makes the general manager's job much easier.

Overall

The Dodgers are set up well for both 2008 and the foreseeable future. Following next year, they'll have some decisions to make with Kent (free agency), Lowe (free agency), and Penny (2009 team option for $8.75M), but the Dodgers are in an enviable position going forward.