The Padres came up a bit short this season as they lost their wild card playoff game this past Monday against the Colorado Rockies. 2007 might have been the Padres' last great shot at the playoffs as the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies are all on the rise. Time will tell if the Padres can keep up with the young talent those teams have arriving in the big leagues.
Strengths
The 2007 Padres were built of####reat pitching staff led by expected Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Chris Young also had a great season before an oblique injury hampered him down the stretch. Combined, Peavy and Young had 2.54 and 3.12 ERAs over 223.1 and 173 innings. If Greg Maddux returns next season, he'll more likely be with the Padres. The Padres have an $11M club option, and Maddux has a $8.75M player option. If they thought he was worth $10M for 2007 last offseason, I'd imagine they think he's worth the $11M for next year as well.
Despite the blown save in the playoff game, Trevor Hoffman put together yet another fine season in the closer's role. While he was accumulating the glory stat with 42 saves, Heath Bell pitched even better in front of him. Hoffman's 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings is great, but Bell's 2.02 ERA over 93.2 innings is even better. The Padres caught a lot of criticism for trading Scott Linebrink in July (taken as a sign they were giving up on the season), but what was missed by the mainstream media was that Joe Thatcher could hold his own in the majors. Since the trade, Linebrink pitched 25.1 innings for the Brewers and held opponents to 3.55 earned runs per nine. On the other hand, Thatcher gave up 3 earned runs over 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA. The Padres traded a pitcher that was highly regarded for an equal or better pitcher that came without the reputation. The Padres' bullpen looks solid moving forward.
The lineup doesn't have the same amount of talent as the pitching staff. The only major highlights in the lineup are Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene. Gonzalez far outshines Greene with the bat with a .282/.347/.502 line compared to Greene's .254/.291/.468. That's one of the big differences with positional baselines. Gonzalez plays first base, where expectations are significantly higher than Greene's shortstop position. Additionally, both play their positions well defensively.
Concerns
Coming into 2007, the Padres were expecting offseason acquisition Marcus Giles to rebound from his down 2006, but he failed to deliver. The club has a $4M option for next season. After hitting .229/.304/.317 in his first go-round with the team, they'll be reluctant to pick up that option. With Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kaz Matsui as the top free agent options and Matt Antonelli lighting up Hi-A and AA (.307/.404/.491) this season, they might pull the trigger on Giles' option in hopes that he can plug the hole until Antonelli is ready.
Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley are both free agents this offseason. Losing Cameron's defense in center is the #1 problem for the Padres. However, Brian Giles is the only player guaranteed a spot in the 2008 outfield, so the Padres need to fix two holes. Late-season acquisition Scott Hairston could handle left field, but his defense leads managers to question if he should be starting. I'd suggest that he could start when there is a groundball pitcher on the mound, but that still leaves a hole when Chris Young is on the hill. Young is a flyball pitcher, and the Padres will need good outfield defense during his starts, which brings us back to Cameron's loss. The good news is that if they let Cameron sign elsewhere, there are other free agent centerfielders available, including Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Aaron Rowand. It has been rumored that they could try to sign Jones to a one-year contract. If he thinks he can return to form in 2008, he should consider signing a one-year deal, but given recent offseason spending, he'll probably get a multi-year offer that he won't be able to refuse. If the Padres want to contend next year, they'll need to resolve their center field situation. Once that's taken care of, they can shift to left and decide if they want someone other than the aforementioned Hairston.
Long term, the Padres plan to shift third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, but that won't happen until Chase Headley takes the major league third base job. After hitting .330/.407/.580 at AA this year, that could happen sooner than later, which means they really only need a one-year solution. Out of this year's free agent class, Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton fit that description. It's also possible that Milton Bradley will be looking for a one-year deal to prove his health in order to get a bigger contract next offseason. Again, whether their 2008 LF is Hairston, Bonds, Lofton, or Bradley is far smaller concern than who their 2008 CF is.
Overall
If the Padres can plug their holes at second and the outfield, they will be back in the mix for the NL West crown. Unfortunately, for Padres' fans, the long-term doesn't look as good. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies have amassed young talent that should put them at the top of the division for years to come. If a championship is what they want, next year might be their last shot.
With tonight's loss to Philadelphia, the Atlanta Braves are officially eliminated from the playoffs. With Andruw Jones's disappointing season and the fact that the Braves employ 3/5 of a starting rotation, it's surprising they made it this far.
Strengths
Around the horn, the Braves have a strong set of infielders. Chipper Jones has once again proven that when he is on the field (I was going to say healthy, but even when playing, he's never healthy), he is still a great player. He was joined this year by Edgar Renteria, Kelly Johnson, and midseason acquisition Mark Teixeira. With the emergence of Yunel Escobar this season, there has been talk of Edgar Renteria being on the trade market, and given the holes that I will discuss later, John Schuerholz just might pursue that option.
Out in the outfield, Matt Diaz, Willie Harris, and Jeff Francoeur have had pretty good seasons. Diaz and Harris have been a great platoon in left, and Francoeur is proving that talent and age truly do trump poor plate discipline over time. Diaz has hit .356/.384/.580 against lefties, and Harris has hit .291/.370/.428 against righties. Meanwhile, Francoeur has been great defensively and is learning to manage the strike zone offensively. After only 23 walks in 2006, Francoeur has walked 41 times this year at 23. He's lost some of his power stroke, but again, he's only 23 so he should figure things out. Unfortunately, the Braves don't have an easy replacement for Andruw Jones, which means they'll need to re-sign him, sign one of the other free agent center fielders (Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand), or pick one up in a trade.
Behind the plate, Brian McCann has regressed from his tremendous 2006 season, but it is very rare for a catcher to have back-to-back .333/.388/.572 while playing well defensively. His .272/.322/.456 is certainly nothing to sneeze at from your backstop.
Pitching to McCann, the Braves have seen #1 seasons from both John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. They should both be in the NL Cy Young race, but since their teams weren't good enough to make the playoffs, they won't get enough votes to win (nor should they, Jake Peavy should be the runaway winner). As a #3 starter, 25 year old Chuck James has done well.
Weaknesses
Aside from the center field problem that everyone knows about, the Braves need .... pitching help? A few years ago, that would have been unheard of. Although they have Smoltz and Hudson at the front of the rotation and Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan doing good work out in the pen, the Braves need to fix the back of the rotation and the rest of the bullpen. Mike Gonzalez won't be back from Tommy John surgery until midseason, and Octavio Dotel has been horrible since coming over to the NL. Dotel has a player option at $5.5M for 2008, but the club has the option to void it. The Braves aren't usually big players on the free agent market, but they might be able to find some answers on the trade market. Schuerholz has had a lot of success there.
Overall
The Atlanta Braves have several pieces in place, but they still have some holes that need fixing. If they fail to keep or replace Andruw Jones in center field, that could be a problem in terms of putting runs on the board and keeping them off. The NL East will continue to be a tough place to compete, but the Braves are no stranger to the top of the division. I don't expect 2008 to be their year, but it wouldn't surprise me either.
The Minnesota Twins just weren't able to keep up with the Indians and Tigers this year. If they played in the NL Central instead of the AL, they'd only be 4.5 back. I'm not saying they're good, but they'd probably still be playing for a division championship in the NL.
The Good
Sure, Johan Santana is suffering through his worst season as a starter, but when a 3.09 ERA over 30 starts is your worst year ever, you're pretty darn good. The Twins' bullpen has once again held up its end of the bargain with Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, and Matt Guerrier all having pretty good years. The herky-jerky side-armer (Neshek) has the highest ERA of the trio at 2.75.
On the offensive side, Torii Hunter has hit .291/.337/.525 in his walk year.
The Bad
The aforementioned Hunter is a free agent at the end of the season. The Twins will have a hard time replacing him if he doesn't come back. One other position they need to fill during the offseason is third base, unless they want to throw away another season at an offensive position. Nick Punto has seen the most time there this year and has a .199/.286/.255 line, which is pretty pathetic for a shortstop and even worse for a third baseman. On the other side of the diamond, Alexi Casilla just hasn't adjusted to the majors since taking over after the Luis Castillo trade. After hitting .269/.345/.344 at AAA Rochester, Casilla has only managed a .241/.274/.282 line in the big leagues.
Looking Forward
If they can't resign Hunter, it's probably not going to matter that Francisco Liriano will be making his return, which is just another reminder of how stacked the Twins are with young pitchers. In addition, if they can't resign Hunter and don't sign either Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones, it might be time to think about trading Johan (if they can't lock him up with an extension as I suspect). Santana will be a free agent following the 2008 season, and if they lose him to free agency, they'll only get a couple draft picks in return. These high-round draft picks have tremendous value for sure, but it pales in comparison to what Santana would fetch on the trade market.
If they do resign Hunter, I'd like to see the Twins make a run at Alex Rodriguez. Given their spending history, this has a slim chance of happening, so looking at it more realistically, Mike Lowell might be a good addition at the hot corner. If they don't resign Hunter, getting Lowell won't make a difference in their division, so it would then be best to wait a year and re-evaluate how good they'll be going into 2009.
Heading into the season, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system projected the White Sox to have a 72-90 season, which made Paul Konerko jokingly say, "Well, we're screwed now. I guess we'll just have to battle through." Since the White Sox are now on pace to finish with 69 wins, it looks like this joke has become reality. On the south side of Chicago, their chances of making the playoffs haven't technically ended, but their statistical chances over a million simulations ended back on August 27, according to BP's Postseason Odds Report.
The Good
Not a whole lot here. Despite experiencing a drop-off in his strikeout rate, Bobby Jenks has significantly cut down on his walks and home runs allowed, and he even tied a record streak of retiring 41 consecutive batters. It could even be argued that Jenks deserves the record outright, since the first batter he faced in the streak grounded into a double play. In the rotation, Mark Buehrle's HR problem from 2006 has disappeared, and Javier Vazquez has figured out how to throw more than 75 pitches successfully during a start (his ERA after 75 pitches last year was 7.97, and this year a much better 3.18). After a mediocre 2006 with the Philadelphia AA affiliate Reading (4.66 ERA), he was much better at White Sox AA affiliate Birmingham this year with a 3.18 ERA. (Edit: This last sentence was about Gio Gonzalez.)
The Bad
Jermaine Dye followed up a career year with a resounding thud as he fell back to earth, hitting .252/.317/.491 after a .315/.385/.622 2006. Joe Crede followed suit as he "hit" .216/.258/.317 before having season-ending back surgery in June. You know, for a team that performed horribly after having high expectations coming into the year, they didn't have too many guys perform extraordinarily worse than could have been expected.
Looking to the Future
Heading into 2008, the White Sox need to stop sacrificing valuable offense in left and center field. They have started to play Fields in left field lately, which could signify that they plan on playing him there full-time next year. If he can begin to figure out major league pitching, that will be an upgrade over what they've gotten from the position this year. That also suggests that they plan on offering Crede arbitration. If his back is healthy, he should return to at least 2005 levels (the 30 HR from 2006 might be too much to expect). That would leave center field as the main free agent target, which lines up with quite a bit of talent (Aaron Rowand, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones) that will be available this winter.
All told, it might not matter if they get one of the FA CF because quite a few of their stars are getting old. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Dye have already started to decline, and they shouldn't be expected to produce as they once did. Once they get past the next couple years, this team could be in very bad shape. They just don't have the young talent to sustain their recent run of success. Hey, at least they got a World Series ring out of it. A lot of teams aren't that fortunate.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
