Coming into 2007, the Chicago Cubs were a bit of a mystery.
After finishing 66-96 in 2006, the Chicago Cubs committed $291M to free agents
in the offseason. While many of the contracts were questioned, how the team would
perform in ’07 was also questioned. After a division title and short-lived
playoff run, the Cubs are again a mystery heading into the offseason. The team
is slated to be sold this offseason, and it is unknown how the new ownership
will handle the team. Given the players under contract for next year, they
should be back in contention for the Central once again.
Strengths
Although Derrek Lee has not regained (and probably never
will regain) the power stroke that led to his 46-homer 2005 season, he is still
an asset at first base. Joining him in the lineup are third baseman Aramis
Ramirez and outfielder Alfonso Soriano. Soriano will be a significant liability
towards the back-end of that contract, but for 2008, he’s still a force in that
lineup even if he’s ill-suited to the leadoff role (.337 OBP).
Out on the mound, the Cubs have a few very good pitchers.
Carlos Zambrano struggled in the early-going (5.77 ERA in April), but he
eventually got it going and finished with a 3.95 ERA over 216.1 innings.
Left-handers Rich Hill and Ted Lilly were also successful in 2007 with very
similar seasons. Hill went 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA, and Lilly beat him in
both categories with 207 innings and a 3.83 ERA. They also reeled in Carlos
Marmol’s electric arm, and he contributed with a dominant relief season. In
2006, Marmol walked 85 batters in 138.1 innings. This year, he only walked 47
in 110.1 innings. That’s 38 fewer walks in 28 fewer innings, while increasing
his strikeout total from 127 to 144. He also didn’t just become less wild out
of the strike zone; he made fewer mistakes in the strike zone. After giving up
14 HR in his 77.1 major league innings in 2006, he only gave up 3 in his 69.1
major league innings this year. Put it all together, and that’s how you go from
a 6.08 ERA to a 1.43 ERA from one season to the next. He shouldn’t be counted on
to be that dominant again next year, but his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of
2.68 is still pretty dominant.
Another strength going forward is the youth that is ####ing
on the proverbial door to the majors. Lou Piniella gave the starting catcher’s
job to Geovany Soto down the stretch, and it paid off. After a huge year at AAA
in which he hit .353/.424/.652, Soto hit .389/.433/.667 in 60 major league plate
appearances. With Jason Kendall a free agent, the 2008 job should be Soto’s to
lose. He was joined in Iowa by Felix Pie (.362/.410/.563), Ronny Cedeno
(.359/.422/.537), and Eric Patterson (.297/.362/.455). These numbers show that
there isn’t much left for these young players to do in Iowa. If the new
ownership is progressive, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pie and Cedeno gradually
take over everyday jobs in Chicago at some point in 2008.
Concerns
If Jim Hendry wants to continue to benefit from their farm
system, they must stop making guaranteed bad trades like giving up Scott Moore
and Rocky Cherry for Steve Trachsel. Regardless of what they gave up, Trachsel
is no longer a worthwhile addition to a contending team. When a 36 year old
pitcher is walking more guys than he is striking out, what could a team
possibly see left in his arm? As for the prospects given up, Cherry is a
capable middle reliever and Moore is a major league-ready third baseman that
should start in Baltimore next season.
Hidden by the stolen bases and gritty play on the field,
Ryan Theriot couldn’t repeat his 2006 numbers this year. Capped off with a
.202/.257/.263 September, Theriot only hit .266/.326/.346. Replacing him at
shortstop with Ronny Cedeno could not only increase the offensive output of the
position, it will give a boost to the pitching staff on defense. Theriot is
probably best used in a utility role.
As for signing free agents, this offseason should not be as
eventful as last year. The Cubs enter the offseason looking for an outfielder
and a starting pitcher. The alternatives aren’t great, and the best solutions
are probably already within the organization. Matt Murton can do more than hit
lefties (.296/.365/.455 career hitter), but if they want to take advantage of
his platoon numbers, they could bring back Cliff Floyd. Floyd has a mutual
option on his contract, although it’s unclear how much that’s worth and he’s
also considering retirement. If they go the platoon route, Murton has hit
.326/.399/.510 against lefties over his career, and Floyd has hit
.281/.368/.491 against righties over his career.
It has been rumored that Ryan Dempster could be moved back
to the rotation after four years of relief work, which could free up Jason
Marquis as a trade chip. A year removed from a 6.02 ERA with the Cardinals, I’m
not sure why someone would be interested in trading for Marquis, but I’ll run
with it. That would leave a rotation of Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Dempster, and another
guy. That guy could be either Sean Marshall or Kevin Hart. Marshall has pitched
well in the starting role this year with a 3.92 ERA over 103.1 major league
innings. When combined with his 1.82 ERA over 24.2 AAA innings, he should be a
logical choice for next year’s rotation. It will come down to how he pitches in
less than a month’s work next spring, which isn’t very logical, so only time
will tell who opens the season in the Chicago rotation.
Overall
As much as Cubs’ fans like to play the cursed card, the ship
has been righted, and their path to a 2008 playoff appearance is clear. Their
offseason problems aren’t really that big and can be easily solved. Down the
road with the multi-year contracts getting rich and the players old, the
organization will have problems, but for 2008, they look to be in pretty good
shape.
Wow, I got through a whole Cubs post without mentioning
Kerry Wood or Mark Prior…Oops...By the way, Wood is a free agent and could be
moving on.
Second Tier 2. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 3. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Holliday is surprisingly solid across the board, and his team is still getting better as they won't have Cory Sullivan, Choo Freeman, or Clint Barmes in the everyday lineup.
Third Tier 4. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Although Crawford is usually drafted like he provides good numbers in all five categories, his HR and RBI are below replacement. The stolen bases can only make up so much ground.
Fourth Tier 6. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets 7. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians 8. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox 9. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros 10. Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates
Fifth Tier 11. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays 12. Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves
Sixth Tier 13. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees 14. Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox 15. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds
There's no way Dunn hits for a .234 AVG again. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .278, while his eBABIP (expected BABIP based on line drive rate) was .361. Hopefully for Reds fans, last August and September won't happen again.
Seventh Tier 16. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks 17. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners 18. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees 19. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 20. Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 21. Coco Crisp, Boston Red Sox 22. Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
Remember Eric Davis? Chris Young garners comparisons. Ichiro's HR and RBI will kill you. What happened to Abreu's power? Did he leave it in Detroit during the All-Star break? Thankfully for fantasy players, Francoeur's horrible plate discipline won't hurt you. If he learns how to wait for his pitch and take a walk, his career will take off.
Eighth Tier 23. Dave Roberts, San Francisco Giants 24. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers 25. Mark Teahen, Kansas City Royals 26. Torii Hunter, Minnesota Twins 27. Eric Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks 28. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers 29. Bradley Hawpe, Colorado Rockies 30. Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers 31. Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies 32. Willy Taveras, Colorado Rockies 33. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins 34. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres 35. Nick Swisher, Oakland Athletics 36. Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees 37. Matt Murton, Chicago Cubs 38. David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals 39. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles 40. Raul Ibanez, Seattle Mariners 41. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies 42. Gary Sheffield, Detroit Tigers 43. Mike Cameron, San Diego Padres
Mark Teahen doesn't qualify in the OF yet, but he will for most of the season.
I posted these rankings and the shortstop rankings today. I look forward to reading your comments.
There is a trend in the coverage of fantasy baseball that the Cubs players should expect an increase in RBIs based on their additions at the top of the lineup: Alfonso Soriano and Mark DeRosa. First of all, it should be stressed that these two players had their best years of their careers last year. Last year's numbers should not be expected to be repeated.
Using Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections (without giving away the actual premium numbers), Soriano is surprisingly expected to play at the same level in terms of his rate stats. The combination of a regression in his level of play and the improvement of hitting conditions going from RFK to Wrigley even things out in the projection. I'm not so sure about the assumed improvement in hitting conditions. As pointed out by Erik Siegrist, Soriano is well suited for RFK as is Andruw Jones. A slight regression might be in order for Soriano. Looking outside the PECOTA projection, Soriano's numbers last year were somewhat out-of-line with the rest of his career. His AVG was right in line with his career trend, but his OBP and SLG had unpredictable spikes. His career highs in both were .338 and .547. Last year, he was at .351 and .560. Having a career year at 30 isn't unheard of, but it isn't common for a player to repeat that career year a year later. He is the type of player who doesn't lose his skills quickly, but it wouldn't be wise to expect a repeat of last year. Given that, he's still a first round fantasy player.
DeRosa's PECOTA projection is just a slight reduction in production. Just like Soriano, DeRosa exceed his career highs in OBP and SLG (throwing out 2000 when he had only 13 AB) of .350 and .439. Last year, he hit .296/.357/.456. While those numbers are well above his career highs, he hadn't hit above .263 since 2002 and he's only three years removed from his 2004 .239/.293/.320 season.
With these two guys being placed at the top of the lineup in place of Juan Pierre and Neifi Perez/Todd Walker/everyone else, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez should be given more RBI opportunities as long as Soriano isn't driving himself in all the time.
As for Michael Barrett, these RBI opportunities might not reach him. He's projected to bat 7th in their lineup after batting 3rd-6th most of last year. This alone means that his RBIs shouldn't improve from last year, and his Rs should drop. Relying on Cesar Izturis and the pitcher to drive you in is a risky proposition. Plus, he had a career year last year at 29. His previous career highs in the triple slash categories were .293/.345/.489, which were achieved in 1999 and 2004. His numbers last year were .307/.368/.517. Obviously, these numbers should not be expected this year. PECOTA projects a massive disappearance in his power numbers (projected SLG of .468), putting his numbers much more in line with his track record. These are reasons why I projected him so low in my catcher rankings. However, PECOTA does place him 5th among catches behind the elite 3 and Johjima with an increase in runs and RBIs. I probably should have left him at 6th, which is where I had him written down on paper, rather than dropping him to 10th. Things would be even better if the Cubs took advantage of his on-base ability. Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, using PECOTA projections for everyone, has him batting leadoff in 15 of their top 30 lineups, including their top two.
Here's their best projected lineup:
1. Michael Barrett 2. Aramis Ramirez 3. Mark DeRosa 4. Alfonso Soriano 5. Derrek Lee 6. Jacque Jones 7. Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton 8. Pitcher 9. Cesar Izturis
As Tony LaRussa thought, it does make sense to put the pitcher in the 8th spot because a better hitter in the 9 spot creates more run-scoring opportunities for the top of the lineup. Unfortunately, the Cubs think Izturis is worth a starting spot, which drastically minimized that ability. The above lineup is projected for 5.361 runs per game. Their actual projected lineup is at 5.115 runs per game for a difference of .246 runs per game, which doesn't look like much but .246 runs per game is nearly 40 runs a season, or 4 wins. This is one case where lineup construction could matter in terms of both actual and fantasy production.
Regarding their fantasy value, a boost in RBIs should only be expected for Lee and Ramirez. Soriano should have a decrease in RBIs because he'll now have Izturis and the pitcher in front of him, so he won't have as many RBI opportunities. Soriano, DeRosa, and Barrett should also have slight declines in actual production from their 2006 career years. The Cubs are being overrated in the fantasy community heading into spring training.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
