The Padres came up a bit short this season as they lost their wild card playoff game this past Monday against the Colorado Rockies. 2007 might have been the Padres' last great shot at the playoffs as the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies are all on the rise. Time will tell if the Padres can keep up with the young talent those teams have arriving in the big leagues.

Strengths

The 2007 Padres were built of####reat pitching staff led by expected Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Chris Young also had a great season before an oblique injury hampered him down the stretch. Combined, Peavy and Young had 2.54 and 3.12 ERAs over 223.1 and 173 innings. If Greg Maddux returns next season, he'll more likely be with the Padres. The Padres have an $11M club option, and Maddux has a $8.75M player option. If they thought he was worth $10M for 2007 last offseason, I'd imagine they think he's worth the $11M for next year as well.

Despite the blown save in the playoff game, Trevor Hoffman put together yet another fine season in the closer's role. While he was accumulating the glory stat with 42 saves, Heath Bell pitched even better in front of him. Hoffman's 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings is great, but Bell's 2.02 ERA over 93.2 innings is even better. The Padres caught a lot of criticism for trading Scott Linebrink in July (taken as a sign they were giving up on the season), but what was missed by the mainstream media was that Joe Thatcher could hold his own in the majors. Since the trade, Linebrink pitched 25.1 innings for the Brewers and held opponents to 3.55 earned runs per nine. On the other hand, Thatcher gave up 3 earned runs over 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA. The Padres traded a pitcher that was highly regarded for an equal or better pitcher that came without the reputation. The Padres' bullpen looks solid moving forward.

The lineup doesn't have the same amount of talent as the pitching staff. The only major highlights in the lineup are Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene. Gonzalez far outshines Greene with the bat with a .282/.347/.502 line compared to Greene's .254/.291/.468. That's one of the big differences with positional baselines. Gonzalez plays first base, where expectations are significantly higher than Greene's shortstop position. Additionally, both play their positions well defensively.

Concerns

Coming into 2007, the Padres were expecting offseason acquisition Marcus Giles to rebound from his down 2006, but he failed to deliver. The club has a $4M option for next season. After hitting .229/.304/.317 in his first go-round with the team, they'll be reluctant to pick up that option. With Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kaz Matsui as the top free agent options and Matt Antonelli lighting up Hi-A and AA (.307/.404/.491) this season, they might pull the trigger on Giles' option in hopes that he can plug the hole until Antonelli is ready.

Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley are both free agents this offseason. Losing Cameron's defense in center is the #1 problem for the Padres. However, Brian Giles is the only player guaranteed a spot in the 2008 outfield, so the Padres need to fix two holes. Late-season acquisition Scott Hairston could handle left field, but his defense leads managers to question if he should be starting. I'd suggest that he could start when there is a groundball pitcher on the mound, but that still leaves a hole when Chris Young is on the hill. Young is a flyball pitcher, and the Padres will need good outfield defense during his starts, which brings us back to Cameron's loss. The good news is that if they let Cameron sign elsewhere, there are other free agent centerfielders available, including Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Aaron Rowand. It has been rumored that they could try to sign Jones to a one-year contract. If he thinks he can return to form in 2008, he should consider signing a one-year deal, but given recent offseason spending, he'll probably get a multi-year offer that he won't be able to refuse. If the Padres want to contend next year, they'll need to resolve their center field situation. Once that's taken care of, they can shift to left and decide if they want someone other than the aforementioned Hairston.

Long term, the Padres plan to shift third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, but that won't happen until Chase Headley takes the major league third base job. After hitting .330/.407/.580 at AA this year, that could happen sooner than later, which means they really only need a one-year solution. Out of this year's free agent class, Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton fit that description. It's also possible that Milton Bradley will be looking for a one-year deal to prove his health in order to get a bigger contract next offseason. Again, whether their 2008 LF is Hairston, Bonds, Lofton, or Bradley is far smaller concern than who their 2008 CF is.

If the Padres can plug their holes at second and the outfield, they will be back in the mix for the NL West crown. Unfortunately, for Padres' fans, the long-term doesn't look as good. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies have amassed young talent that should put them at the top of the division for years to come. If a championship is what they want, next year might be their last shot.

Standard Information (Yahoo! Defaults)
12-Team, 5x5, Mixed League
Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, U, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P
Stats: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP
Limits: 1250 IP & 162 G

Only places where the rankings were changed will be mentioned.

Catchers
Fourth Tier
4. Michael Barrett, Chicago Cubs
*5. Ivan Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
6. Kenji Johjima, Seattle Mariners
*7. Ramon Hernandez, Baltimore Orioles

The 4th and 5th tiers have been combined because there just isn't much of a difference between the four players.

First Basemen
Seventh Tier
*11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Lyle Overbay, Milwaukee Brewers
14. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
*15. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

Thomas is down from the sixth tier, and Gonzalez is up from the eighth tier. Remember that Thomas is not eligible at 1B. It was just the most logical position to list him with.

Eighth Tier
...
*20. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
*21. Ryan Shealy, Kansas City Royals

I added Youkilis and Shealy to the end of the list because they're close enough to the rest of the 8th tier.

Second Basemen
Second Tier
2. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
*3. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
*4. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
*5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles
*6. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
*7. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants
*8. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

Moved up nearly the entire 3rd tier (minus Kelly Johnson and Ryan Freel) to join Mr. Kendrick in the 2nd. Also, I found the reason I had Brian Roberts down so far. I had a very low AVG projection for him, which was completely out of line with his recent history. Now he's up closer to the top where you'd expect him.

Third Tier
9. Ryan Freel, Cincinnati Reds
*10. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
11. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves

After everyone left, Iguchi joins the outfielders masquerading as 2B. (Actually, Johnson will play second base this year unlike Freel. He just doesn't qualify here until about April 15.) 

Fourth Tier
12. Julio Lugo, Boston Red Sox
13. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins
*... 

These two standout from the other guys that were in the fourth tier, so the rest are booted down.

Third Basemen
Third Tier
*9. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
10. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Gordon drops out of the second tier to join Chipper in the third. Don't expect to draft Gordon if you're in a competitive league. I saw him go in the 7th round yesterday.

Fourth Tier
*11. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds

Rolen also experiences a drop down to the cleared out fourth tier, which means that the remainder of the fourth tier now constitutes the fifth tier.

It seems I need to clarify what these rankings are meant for. They are based on a 12-team 5x5 mixed league with the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. I am placing the players in tiers to see where players at each position line up. This does not mean that sixth tier catchers are equal to sixth tier first basemen. There will be cases where the third tier at one position has more value than the first tier at another. Also, I will be including DH in the 1B rankings, and their names will appear in italics.

Replacement Level
77 R, 23 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, .283 AVG

First Tier
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
#1 overall pick, hands down. He's well above replacement across the board.

Second Tier
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
His big-time power places him up here, and he also benefits from his batting average. Howard is above replacement in all categories except SB, but he isn't that negatively affected because not many 1B steal bases.

Third Tier
3. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
A lower batting average is all that's keeping him out of the second tier. In that lineup with his production, he'll continue to put up big numbers.

Fourth Tier
4. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
I have yet to figure out why Hafner is so under-the-radar. Why wasn't he an All Star last year? He was the best player in the first half of the season. His limitations to the utility spot is all that's keeping him down in the fourth tier.

5. Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers
A bad first half kept his production down, but he was back in the second half. Without the first half slump, Teixeira is an easy first round selection. Despite the slump, he's still worth a second round selection.

Fifth Tier
6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The unjustly named AL MVP will be back and continue to show what he can do while healthy. Despite being the third best player on his team last year, Morneau puts up huge fantasy numbers.

7. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee is trying to come back from his wrist injury that knocked him out in April and a premature comeback that went awry. He was able to hit .339/.362/.571in his second return to the field. Don't expect 2005 again, but he should still be a stud. His steals are a rarity at the position.

8. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
The team is on the rise, and Prince is leading the way. I expect big things from the Brewers. Don't be surprised to see Fielder bump up his batting average and become one of the better first basemen.

Sixth Tier
9. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Last year's AVG was a little out of line for his career, so expect some regression. Given that, he's been pretty consistent the last three years at about 90 runs, 40 HR, and 110 RBI. Following the standard aging curve, expect a little less than that, but he should still be a good first base option.

10. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
Let's hope he's past the stomach ailment that sidelined him for a few weeks last year, and it sounds like the humidor experiment might be lessened a little as well. Hopefully, Helton bounces back with a big year, but it is necessary to remember that he did take a significant power hit last year.

11. Frank Thomas, Toronto Blue Jays
The injury risk, age, and positional inflexibility drop him from his 2006 rank, but he could end up near the top of the list. It's the possibility of Big Hurt ending up at the bottom of the list that worries me.

Seventh Tier
12. Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
13. Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners
14. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
LaRoche has definitely been moved to a less potent lineup, but he will also be batting higher in the order. Sexson has a little bit of a batting average problem, but he provided a little more power than the other two. Overbay makes up for lesser power with a higher average.

Eighth Tier
15. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
16. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
17. Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox
19. Jason Giambi, New York Yankees
Having one of these guys as your utility isn't such a bad idea unless you need some steals. Delgado, Thome, and Giambi add the home run threat while sacrificing some AVG. Gonzalez is the first base replacement player much like Varitek is the catcher replacement player. Jackson gives a high average but fewer RBI than you'd expect from a first baseman.