The Mariners are a team I generally take a lot of flack about, but I think that might be a little different now. The Mariners are doing worse than anyone expected, and at 19.5 GB, the Mariners are expected to be sellers this season. With several high salaries on the roster and not much down on the farm with Jeff Clement already in the majors, it’s hard to say when the Mariners should target for contention. Let’s take a look before setting a target year.

Potential Starters under Contract for 2009

C Kenji Johjima, C Jeff Clement, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Wladimir Balentien, OF Jeremy Reed

SP Felix Hernandez, SP Erik Bedard, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista

CL J.J. Putz

If Washburn, Silva, and Batista were not performing so poorly, I’d suggest that they try to trade them off for prospects. Alas, that doesn’t appear to be an option. What does this team need to win in 2009? In my opinion, they’d need Washburn, Silva, and Batista to return to league-average form, and they’d need to bring in two of the top offensive free agents (Mark Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley). Given that you can’t expect all three of those pitchers to return to form, that means they’d need to bring in a good starting pitcher as well. In the end, it would be nearly impossible to get three top free agents to join the Mariners in the same offseason, mostly due to cost. In the end, I’d implode this thing and start from scratch. That means making trades that will make the 2008, 2009, and 2010 teams worse, but as Billy Beane says, “You’re either building something that’s special or you have something that’s special. In between is just no man’s land.” It’s time for the Mariners to get out of no man’s land and start building something special. Let’s set 2011 as the target date.

Players to Cut

1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro

Just like when managers get fired, sometimes players become scapegoats as well. However, Sexson and Vidro have played so horribly that they deserve their fate. I don’t think either will get anything back in trade, and since they aren’t part of the organization’s future, it’s time to move on without them.

Players to Trade This Season

3B Adrian Beltre, LF Raul Ibanez, SP Erik Bedard

Raul Ibanez is the obvious name here as he’s a free agent this offseason. Beltre and Bedard are both under team contract for 2009, but they shouldn’t be a part of a rebuilding effort. Beltre is 29 and starting to enter the decline phase of his career. The Mariners should get what they can for him now rather than wait for him to leave as a free agent. Bedard is also 29, and as I read somewhere (sorry, I can’t find it back), remove his 2007 season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t look like Bedard is having a down year. His K/9 rates over the last 5 years are 7.93, 7.94, 7.84, 10.93, and 8.06. Now, you tell me which one looks out of place. It’s starting to look like last year was a fluke for Erik Bedard. As I said, he’s a free agent following the 2009 season, and it doesn’t sound like the Mariners clubhouse is going to miss him anytime soon. They might as well turn him into prospects now.

Players to Trade down the Road

C Kenji Johjima, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, RP J.J. Putz

Right now, they have to hold onto these guys due to underperformance and/or injury, but I wouldn’t consider any of them to be worth holding onto over the long-term. Only Silva’s younger than 30, but the Mariners need all of them to regain their productivity in order to get meaningful offers in return.

Core to Build Around

C Jeff Clement, OF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

Clement might not stick at catcher due to defensive concerns, but his bat appears to be capable of starting at 1B. They should give him as much time as possible at catcher to see if he can stick, but he has his doubters. King Felix needs to stay healthy, but the guy I want to talk about is Ichiro. While I’m skeptical that he’s worth the $90 million he signed for less than a year ago, Seattle’s the only place where he’s possibly worth it. If the Japanese influence wasn’t so large, I’d suggest they (gasp) trade Ichiro, but it is. While they rebuild, maybe they can use Ichiro to fool people into thinking they’re not.

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Let me hear your thoughts about what the Mariners should do. I’m sure there are several people who disagree with mine. It took a while to get myself off the fence about their future, but remembering the Billy Beane quote did it for me.

Replacement Level
83 R, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG

First Tier
1. Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins
He's been a superstar for so long that it's hard to believe he's only 24. Although the Marlins were content low balling him at the start of arbitration, you shouldn't make the same mistake entering your draft. He's great across the board except stolen bases, where he's just average, but in the categories he's great, he's really great.

2. David Wright, New York Mets
Take Cabrera, lose some batting average, add some steals, put him in New York, and you've got yourselves a superstar that will be there a while.

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Take Wright, add some RBI, and lose some batting average, put him in New York, and you've got a media frenzy about how terrible a player he is for the Yankees. Forget the MVP he won. He's downright pathetic. Sorry, I began channeling the NY media. Ignore what the media says, look at his stats, and realize he's still one of the best players in the game.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez should enjoy the improvement in the lineup in the NL Central standings, but I'm not sure how much it will help him put up personal stats. They didn't add any great OBP guys ahead of him. What they gained in OBP going from Juan Pierre to Alfonso Soriano is lost when you consider that Soriano's driving himself in quite a bit. Pierre had an on-base without including HR 32.6% of the time last year. Soriano's on-base without including HR was 28.7% last year. Now, remember this doesn't mean the change won't help the Cubs. It just won't help Ramirez's fantasy production.

5. Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins seemed to come out of nowhere last year, but he did this last year without the help of the normal Coors Field. Take a look at statistics from last September, and you see that Coors was back to its gopher-like ways. Who knows what will happen there this year, but Atkins should be a good choice no matter what.

Second Tier
6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
No one expected his power to develop this quickly, but it did despite what RFK had to say. He's another star at the position, but he's still behind Cabrera and Wright at this point.

7. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
He's been nearly handed the third base job despite Mark Teahen's breakout season last year, and for good reason. Teahen will move to the outfield (which is where I will rank him), making room for the guy who had a 1.015 OPS at AA last year.

8. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks
The oft-overlooked Tracy has been consistently productive the past two years in the desert. His HR totals fell back a little last year, but that will just be a one-year hiatus.

9. Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Beltre will never approach the 48 HR again, but he'll drive in runs, steal some bases, and hit 20-30 HR. Just wait until his 2009 contract year.

Third Tier
10. Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals
11. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

Both guys have some constant injury questions. Neither will offer much above the listed replacement level, but you know they'll be there in the end.

Fourth Tier
12. Edwin Encarnacion, Cincinnati Reds
13. Joe Crede, Chicago White Sox
14. Eric Chavez, Oakland Athletics
15. Hank Blalock , Texas Rangers
16. Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
17. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres

If Chavez is past his shoulder injury, if Crede can repeat his career year, if EdE continues to improve, if Blalock finally lives up to expectations, if Iwamura makes a smooth transition from Japan, if Kouzmanoff continues to prove people wrong (scouts weren't high on him as he was old for his level a lot), ... There's a lot of ifs that could push any one of these guys way up the chart. It's the ifs that keep them down here.

Other than Kouzmanoff, none of these guys will provide above average batting averages. Kouzmanoff and Crede are lacking in runs, but no one should stand out from this group in terms of runs. Crede has a little more pop, and Encarnacion and Iwamura are the only two with the threat of stealing. All six are solid, but they might not provide everything you want from a fantasy 3B.

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Third base is a strong position that will have 3+ first rounders. If you don't get one of these guys early, you might be able to grab Alex Gordon a little later with someone like Eric Chavez as insurance.