San Diego Padres – C

Released OF Jim Edmonds

Acquired RHP Chad Reineke for LHP Randy Wolf

Due to their no-trade clauses, the Padres have been unable to trade either Greg Maddux or Brian Giles. You could also argue that they could have tried to move Trevor Hoffman, but with his 10-and-5 rights, he could have also vetoed any trade. Other than trading Wolf for what they could, their hands were basically tied.

Philadelphia Phillies – B-

Acquired RHP Joe Blanton for IF Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman, and OF Matthew Spencer

As one of the few teams I did the Buyer or Seller series on a month ago, I said that the Phillies needed to acquire a starting pitcher, which is precisely what they did. If Brett Myers can keep doing what he has since returning to the majors, the Phillies are a team without any large holes. They are ready to battle the Mets down to the wire in the NL East.

Pittsburgh Pirates – A-

Acquired RHPs Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, and Ross Ohlendorf and OF Jose Tabata for OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte

Acquired 3B Andy LaRoche, OF Brandon Moss, and RHPs Bryan Morris and Craig Hansen for OF Jason Bay

It’s amazing what happens when an organization decides to set a plan and actually sticks to it. It took the Pirates 15 years to bring in a management team that gets it, but better late than never I guess. The Pirates have finally stopped bringing in mediocre players to get them a small step closer to .500. Instead, they’re going headfirst into rebuilding mode. It’s still going to be several years until they start to see the fruits of their labor, but at least they’re finally moving in the right direction.

Cincinnati Reds – D+

Acquired RHP Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar for OF Ken Griffey, Jr. and ~$4 million

As surprised as I am by the lack of interest in Adam Dunn, I am equally surprised that the Reds found a taker for Griffey. Of course, they’re still paying half his contract and didn’t really get much in return, but they still found a taker. It was disappointing that they weren’t able to move some of the smaller pieces, such as David Weathers, Josh Fogg, or Jeremy Affeldt, but the offers probably weren’t too impressive either.

Colorado Rockies – D-

Claimed RHP Livan Hernandez off waivers

It seems that the Rockies believed they could repeat their 21-1 streak from 2007 because they decided to not trade Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes. In addition, they were unable to trade Yorvit Torrealba, which is basically due justice after they made the mistake of re-signing him in the offseason. At 8 GB, it is very unlikely that the Rockies will climb back into the division race (BP’s Postseason Odds gives the Rockies a 2.4% chance), and they should have used this opportunity to at least move Fuentes. The claiming of Livan Hernandez is impossible for me to understand. After he posted a 5.48 ERA with Minnesota, what makes them think he’ll be any better in Colorado?

A few weeks ago, I talked about the criticism J.P. Ricciardi had been getting, and said, “It’s easy to see why.” It seems the pressure from years of mediocrity is getting to Ricciardi, who re-inserted himself into the spotlight with his on-air criticism of not only Adam Dunn but his own team’s fans: "Maybe we have more information and know the player a little more than the average fan." Although true in 99% of cases, doesn't that break some kind of PR rule? The last time I checked, you're not supposed to get snippy with your fans. Getting back to Dunn, he responded with his own outburst, calling Ricciardi a “clown.” This isn’t the first time someone has had negative comments regarding Ricciardi. Back in December 2006, Ricciardi questioned Gil Meche’s competitiveness when he signed with Kansas City instead of Toronto. To which, Buddy Bell responded with:

"(Ricciardi) is an interesting guy for all that he's done in the game," Bell told the Kansas City Star. "He's a little guy with a big mouth and all he does is whine. And you can write that. That's the kind of #### in this game that drives me crazy. He knows nothing about our situation. You've got to be kidding me. Every time I hear this guy talk, all he's doing is whining."

Moving past the soap opera, I think the Blue Jays are in desperate need for a rebuilding effort – more on that in the weeks to come. For now, let’s take the caller’s question on face value: we’re trying to make the Blue Jays better soon. If that’s the case and Ricciardi doesn’t think Dunn can improve the team, the real question becomes: is J.P. Ricciardi making the best decisions for his team? He’s not the first to question Dunn’s passion for the game, but I take issue with his decision that “I don’t think you’d be very happy if we brought Adam Dunn here” for two reasons:

1. Jeff Kent hates baseball and he’s put together a pretty nice career.

2. The Blue Jays really need help on offense.

Let’s expand on that second reason.

Lyle Overbay leads the team in OBP at .371, and Rod Barajas leads the team in SLG at .474. Adam Dunn has a .395 OBP and .514 SLG.

Shannon Stewart has seen the most time in LF with 34.5 Adjusted Games (innings played there divided by 9), and he’#### .240/.325/.303. Wilkerson’s seen time there lately; he’s hitting .254/.331/.377. Dunn has hit .227/.395/.514 in 63.5 Adjusted Games.

Blue Jays’ left fielders have a Rate of 99. Dunn’s Rate is 105.

Shannon Stewart’s Revised Zone Rating is .896, and Wilkerson’s is .900. Dunn’s RZR is .888.

Conclusion

So what do we have here? Dunn is better at getting on base than anyone on the Blue Jays’ roster, and he hits for more power than anyone on their roster. He’s light years ahead of their current left fielders on offense, and his defensive numbers this year are on par with their current options. Combining Stewart and Wilkerson, they have 0.9 Wins Above Replacement Player. Dunn has 3.3 WARP. I think it’s safe to say that Adam Dunn is a better left fielder than any of Toronto’s current options, just like it was safe to say that Frank Thomas was a better DH than any of their other options. For J.P. Ricciardi to decide otherwise is pure ignorance of the facts. Maybe he’s a firm believer in truthiness…

Since there’s not much of a difference defensively between the two positions, I’m combining left fielders and right fielders into one piece.

Impact Outfielders to be Traded

Adam Dunn was on the trading block last year, but the Reds didn’t send him packing. Dunn’s contract presented an interesting situation. If he was traded last year, he could void the 2008 team option for $13 million, which meant that a team trading for him last year would get half a year just like they would if they traded for him this year. Now that the Reds have exercised the option, Dunn has a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade. If the Reds fall out of the playoff picture by the trading deadline, a contender will be able to pick up a big bat for the stretch run. In addition to Dunn, the Reds could also be looking to trade Ken Griffey, Jr. Griffey is making $12.5M this year, and his contract contains a club option for $16.5M in 2009 with a $4M buyout. Given the money, he will most likely be a free agent following the season, which is why the Reds should be looking to trade him.

Staying in the NL Central, Jason Bay was rumored to be on the block early this offseason, but Neal Huntington decided that it wasn’t wise to trade Bay while his value is at its lowest. If Bay can re-establish himself this year, he could be on the way out of Pittsburgh.

Impact Outfielder to be Signed

Barry Bonds is still a free agent. While I don’t know how much Bonds is looking for, I can tell you that 30 different teams could sign him and be a better team on paper. The key there is “on paper,” since I (and everyone else) have no idea if he negatively affects his teammates’ performance on the field. If he does, no one knows how much. Bonds had a 1.045 OPS last year in 477 PA. For all the talk about his legs making him no longer able to play left field full-time, he appeared in 126 games last year and only missed qualifying for the rate statistics by 25 PA. Consider this: if you apply the minor league rule for rate statistics (adding plate appearances until the player qualifies), Bonds would have led the league in OBP. He had an OBP of 0.480. When you add 25 plate appearances resulting in outs, his OBP drops to 0.456, which is still 11 points higher than David Ortiz’s 0.445. Bonds is still a force to be reckoned with on the field. Whether or not his performance offsets the public relations issues is something I can’t answer, but I have a feeling that it does.

Contenders Needing a Corner Outfielder

The Indians are going through spring training with David Dellucci, Jason Michaels, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ben Francisco in the corners. When they acquired Dellucci and Michaels, the plan was to platoon them with Dellucci facing righties and Michaels facing lefties. In 2007, Dellucci dealt with a torn hamstring tendon and only managed a .240/.306/.403 line against righties. In his career, he has hit .269/.355/.464 against RHP. As a result of Dellucci’s injury, Michaels saw more time against RHP than expected, putting up a meager .252/.285/.351 line against them. He was much better against LHP at .287/.359/.441. Over his career, he has hit lefties to the tune of .300/.382/.460. If they can both return to their career levels, the Indians will be fine in one corner. In right field, Gutierrez hit .266/.318/.472. If he can take another step forward, the Indians will be respectable in both outfield corners. However, that’s three players that have to outperform expectations to have an acceptable corner outfield situation. More likely, one of them won’t, which creates a need to acquire someone to fill in at the spot. If the Indians can acquire someone of the caliber of Adam Dunn, Jason Bay (if he returns to previous level), or Barry Bonds, it will go a long way in their attempt to stay atop the AL Central.

Moises Alou hasn't stayed healthy for a full season in three years, and that's not about to change now. Alou will miss at least the first month of the season following hernia surgery. His backup is Endy Chavez. After a better than expected 2006, Chavez fell back to hitting .287/.325/.380 in 2007 – more in line with his career .271/.311/.375. When Alou returns, there's no guarantee that he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the way. If the Mets have to go too long without Alou, they'll need a better replacement than Chavez to win the NL East.

Just Play the Youngsters Already

I hate that it seems like I’m picking on the Dodgers here, but other organizations think that Andy LaRoche (now injured), Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp are ready to hold down starting jobs. It seems like the Dodgers are afraid to give their own homegrown guys the jobs. They reluctantly gave the 1B job to James Loney last year, and he ran with it. It’s time they give the starting corner spots to Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Juan Pierre barely hit enough for a center fielder, and there’s no way he hits enough for a corner outfielder. Forget the money they’re paying him. They’re going to pay him it whether he’s in the lineup or not. They’ll do better in the standings with him on the bench.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s free agent corner outfield class currently consists of Dunn, Pat Burrell, Alou, Juan Rivera, Jacque Jones, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, and Brian Giles. Vladimir Guerrero could join the list if the Angels give him the $3M buyout to decline their $15M option for 2009. As long as Vlad doesn’t fall apart in 2007, expect the Angels to exercise that option and keep Vlad around for at least one more year. Given the age and quality of the class, the only player I’d recommend for a contract extension would be Burrell. The Phillies’ current offensive core is at or past their prime and signed through 2011. Extending Burrell with a 3- or 4-year deal would ensure that the Phillies will remain contenders through the end of those contracts.

I would mention Dunn as a guy to extend instead of trade, but the Reds would have to be sure that Dunn can stay in left for four or five years. I doubt he can stay in the outfield that long. If he could move to first with Joey Votto going to the outfield, I’d recommend an extension, but I don’t know if Votto can play the outfield.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

Several players have made this list. We’ll start with a pair of teammates in Milwaukee. Ryan Braun and Corey Hart put up great seasons last year in their debuts as full-time players. While Braun was horrible playing third base, he should be better in left field. Given the transition to left, some would suggest waiting another year to ink Braun to guaranteed money, but the bat is so special that he would have to be worse than anything we’ve seen in left field for him to not be worth it. Last year was Hart’s second year in the majors, but he wrestled the starting job out of Kevin Mench’s hands and never looked back. At 6’6”, Hart has the potential to be a 30-30 guy in right field.

Other players worthy of a multi-year contract rather than the year-to-year contract renewal and arbitration process are Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

Recap

The NL Central has three corner outfielders that could be placed on the trading block this year and make an impact for a contender: Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Jason Bay. Free agent Barry Bonds can help all 30 teams on the field. The Indians have three guys for two spots, but they will probably need to upgrade at one of the spots. If/when Moises Alou gets hurt, the Mets will find Endy Chavez lacking the bat needed to man a corner spot. The Dodgers need to give their homegrown guys shots at holding down starting jobs because Juan Pierre doesn’t cut it as a corner outfielder. The Phillies should try to work out an extension with Pat Burrell. If the Reds can find a spot for Dunn down the road, they should try to extend his contract rather than trade him. If they can’t, he should be traded to a contender midseason. The Brewers have two star corner outfielders in Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, and they should try to extend their contracts. The same can be said for Hunter Pence, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Rios, and Jeff Francoeur.

Easily the hardest team to figure out going into the offseason is the New York Yankees. There are all kinds of questions surrounding the club, and it’s not just your typical New York hype. Will they bring back Joe Torre? Will Alex Rodriguez opt out? Will Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte return? Let’s get to it.

Strengths

In terms of both payroll flexibility and pure talent, the pre-arbitration starting pitchers are the biggest strength on the Yankees. With Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy, the Yankees have four starting pitchers with at least 4 years of service time left before they are eligible for free agency. While all four won’t start the year in the rotation (although you never know, Carl Pavano did start opening day), they will all most likely get a few major league starts in 2008.

Also among the pre-arbitration players on the Yankees are Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. Cano has now put up back-to-back great seasons at second base. Although his batting average fell off from the spectacular .342 of last year to .306 this year, his on-base percentage (.365 to .353) and isolated power (.183 to .182) stayed relatively the same. Meanwhile, Cabrera took over the center field job this season and proved that he could be an effective major league center fielder, but his walk rate did plummet from last year’s 10.9% to 7.3% in 2007. If he can regain those walks, he’ll be an asset on the field as well as in the Yankees’ checkbook.

Flanking Cabrera in the outfield will be two of Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, and Johnny Damon. Of course, this is assuming that Abreu’s $16M club option will be exercised. Given the low risk of one year deals and the value that Abreu provides on the field, exercising his option should be a foregone conclusion.

Moving on to ... wait, I’m forgetting someone … let’s see, I’ve covered the rotation, the outfield, Cano ... Oh yeah, the captain Derek Jeter will be back in pinstripes for 2008. Despite his defensive shortcomings, Jeter is still a spectacular player to build a team around.

Concerns

Where should we start? The mainstream media seems to have the Torre situation well-covered, so we’ll start with A-Rod. As everyone has heard over and over, Alex Rodriguez and the best agent in baseball Scott Boras are expected to opt out of his 10-year, $252M contract following the World Series. Brian Cashman has stated that the Yankees will not pursue Rodriguez if he chooses to opt out. If they’re unable to sign him to an extension beforehand, I find this hard to believe. If Rodriguez isn’t a Yankee next season, the only other guy on the free agent market is current Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell. Wilson Betemit is the in-house option (some teams wouldn’t consider this a bad thing).

Moving up the age spectrum, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte have made it known that they will be influenced by the Torre decision. Posada is coming off the best year of his career at 35 and will be looking for a multi-year deal. If he does listen to other teams in the offseason, he will be the best catching option on the market. Other options are Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, and Yorvit Torrealba.

Can anyone else see Mariano Rivera in a uniform other than the Yankees? Neither can I, but if Torre is let go, it wouldn’t surprise me for Rivera to leave as well. He didn’t like the way they treated Bernie Williams or his own contract situation back in March. If Rivera doesn’t come back, who will be left in the bullpen? There aren’t many options on the free agent market, and the only options for the closer’s role within the organization are Joba Chamberlain (please leave him in the rotation) and Kevin Whelan. Rivera survived off his cutter, and Whelan is a fastball specialist, throwing four different variations. That transition would seem fitting to me. Whelan just might not be ready to make that jump yet. The free agent reliever merry-go-round features Francisco Cordero with Octavio Dotel (if he opts out of his contract), the wild card Kerry Wood, and the recently ineffective Eric Gagne.

Despite the young starters, the rotation could still need some work. Andy Pettitte has a $16M player option for next season. As mentioned before, his decision might hinge on whether or not Joe Torre returns. At 35, he’s probably not done, but he could be done as a Yankee. I’ve already mentioned four other starters that the Yankees could use, but given their youthfulness, the Yankees probably shouldn’t rely on all three of the unproven youngsters. The biggest reason is to keep the innings total down for each of their arms. If Pettitte, Wang, and Mike Mussina are all in the rotation next season, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy could be rotated between the rotation and the bullpen to limit their innings and keep their arms healthy. Without Pettitte, that becomes hard and if they aren’t ready to go back down the Pavano trail, another option is to sign one of Tom Glavine, Kenny Rogers, or Curt Schilling. All three should be looking for relatively short (1-, 2-, or 3-year) deals and would slot right into Pettitte’s spot in the above example.

Right now, they have Jason Giambi, Matsui, Cabrera, Damon, and Abreu to fill the 1B, OF, and DH roles, but the Yankees have never trusted Giambi’s atrocious defense at first base. If they don’t want to play one of the outfielders there, Giambi has no spot and needs to be traded. With only one year and $26M (or two years and $43M) left on the deal, his contract isn’t quite the albatross it once was. If the Yankees chip in a little cash to move him, there will be a market for his services. To replace him, the Yankees could always bring back Doug Mientkiewicz. On the other hand, if they want to bring in a real first baseman (you know, one that can hit), they could always pursue someone like Scott Hatteberg or Adam Dunn (if the Reds buy out his option; anything’s possible – they already hired the assassin at manager).

Overall

Given the loyalty of Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte to Torre, it would be a mistake to get rid of him now. Losing Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte would be hard to overcome for any organization, even one with the financial ability of the Yankees. Supply is low on the free agent market, and these guys would be hard to replace. Add to it the A-Rod situation, and it could be meltdown time for the nuclear reactor known as the New York Yankees. Cashman won’t let this actually happen, but I can’t remember the Yankees ever putting themselves in a position this risky before.

I've been thinking about the format of these posts, and I'm going to try something new. Instead of looking at what was good or bad about this past season, I'm going to take a more forward-looking view by looking at the team's strengths and weaknesses heading into the offseason.

In addition, I was hoping that I would start catching up to when teams are actually being eliminated from the playoffs, but that hasn't happened yet. The next team was officially eliminated from the NL Central this past Wednesday as the Reds lost to the Cubs 3-2.

Strengths 

Even after trading away two of their young outfielders last year in Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns, the Reds are once again loaded with outfielders as long as Wayne Krivsky and company make the right choice regarding Adam Dunn's option. His club option is for $13M (could be $16M based on award bonuses, but Dunn doesn't get enough praise to win awards) and will activate a full no-trade clause through June 15th when it becomes a limited no-trade (Dunn has to pick 10 teams to which he would accept a trade). Dunn's batting average will probably not be this high again (and .264 isn't that high), but he will be the only player to have hit 40 HR in each of the last four seasons unless either David Ortiz or Albert Pujols hit 9 homers the rest of the way. Although Ken Griffey, Jr. has been shut down the rest of the season, he should be healthy going into 2008. If he can stay healthy is another question altogether. With those two in the corners, Josh Hamilton has surprised many by showing that he is ready for the major leagues. He should also be healthy going into next year despite being out for the rest of the season with a hamstring strain. Another injury has taken Ryan Freel out, but he should be back next year as well. If those four aren't enough, Jay Bruce has been lights out in the minors all year, prompting Baseball Prospectus's prospect guru Kevin Goldstein to declare "Jay Bruce is too good for the minor leagues" in his annual CF Prospect Rankings. Bruce will be following in Joey Votto's shoes, who has staked out his claim to the everyday first base spot in Cincinnati by hitting .353/.411/.549 in 51 at bats since his call-up on the heels of a .294/.381/.478 season at AAA Louisville. With Brandon Phillips at the keystone and Edwin Encarnacion at the hot corner, the Reds are on the verge of having another good offense in the hitters' paradise of Great American Ball Park.

The Reds' rotation also looks to be on the way up as Aaron Harang continues to show that he is a legit #1 pitcher with a 3.61 ERA over 216.2 innings while pitching in the aforementioned hitters' paradise. As the #2 starter, Bronson Arroyo had some slip-ups this year, but a lot of those can be attributed to being overworked in early May. He had consecutive outings of 120, 117, and 129 pitches, which were followed up by six starts in which he gave up 35 runs over 29.2 innings. Back on July 27th, he was kept out there for 123 pitches and proceeded to give up 7 runs over 1.2 in his next start. I know that it isn't correct to just remove those bad starts, but if you just remove those six straight starts in late May and early June, his ERA falls to 3.32 from the 4.37 he currently sports. The Reds manager next year, if it's Pete Mackanin or somebody else, needs to make sure to not overwork Arroyo next year, or he might end up with a broken Arroyo for the next month, or worse. Future additions to the rotation include Homer Bailey, touted as a future #1 by scouts heading into this year, and Johnny Cueto. Bailey has had a rough year, although he returned to the big leagues Thursday in San Francisco and got the win by going 5.2 and only allowing one run. He was kept on a pretty tight leash as he was held to only 80 pitches in his first start since being sidelined with a groin strain. Cueto will most likely start the season at AAA, but if he pitches well, he could be slotted into the rotation midseason.

Weaknesses

The bullpen in Cincinnati has been terrible once again. David Weathers and Jared Burton seem to be the only guys that can be relied upon in the bullpen. Once you remove the starting pitchers from the equation, the Reds' bullpen has an ERA of 5.06. If you further remove Weathers and Burton, that figure jumps to 5.74. While they need to fix the bullpen, the Reds have always approached this situation the wrong way. Instead of throwing money at veterans like they have with Mike Stanton ($2M for a 6.11 ERA, $3M for next year, and a $500K buyout for 2009), they should find hard-throwing pitchers that other organizations have given up on and see what they can get out of them. Burton was a Rule 5 pick this past winter, and Jon Coutlangus was a waiver claim. The two of them combined for $760K and a 3.25 ERA over 83 innings. Coutlangus can be a good LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) if he stops walking them around the bases. Left-handers only managed a .206 average against him, but Coutlangus has given up 16 walks in 17.1 innings against lefties.

Overall

The Reds might need to sign one or two league-average starting pitchers for 2008 to be able to compete, but they shouldn't sign any FA pitcher to a long-term deal. If they can get a good deal on just one starter, they could be setting themselves up for a run at the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central in 2009 and beyond. It'll be tough to top the Brewers over the next four or five years, but with the young talent coming up, the Reds just might have a shot.