I’m sorry that I didn’t get this up here sooner. Fantasy baseball got in the way. We’ve completed catchers and infielders in this series, so next up are the outfielders. I’m going to start with center fielders because they’re usually harder to find than corner outfielders. If a team has an extra quality center fielder, he can move to a corner with no problem. If a team has an extra quality corner outfielder, he’s most likely relegated to the bench because his defense isn’t good enough for center.

Impact Center Fielders to Be Traded

Over the past two offseasons, the San Francisco Giants have spent a ton of money on two players that most likely aren’t worth it: Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand. What makes it worse is that it might be four or five years before the Giants re-enter the NL playoff picture. All the talk has been about how happy the players are now that Barry Bonds is gone. I’ve got a feeling that finishing last will make those players change their minds about the situation. Rowand is due $52 million over the next five years – all that for a guy with two good seasons at the plate in his career (2004 and 2007). As for trading him, it won’t happen because he has a full no-trade clause this year, but he only has a limited no-trade clause in subsequent years. If he has a good year in 2008, it will be time to unload him.

One other guy that’s been rumored to be available through trade is Coco Crisp, but I don’t agree with that decision. With Coco Crisp, they’ve got somebody who can act as a sub for six positions without a ton of loss at each. Obviously, he can sub for the three outfield spots and the DH. With Kevin Youkilis on the roster, he can also sub for first and third with Manny Ramirez moving to DH, David Ortiz moving to first, and either Youkilis or Mike Lowell at third. Now, let’s list the starters at those positions (if we consider Crisp as the bench guy): J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny, Ortiz, Youkilis, and Lowell. There are a few guys in that list that have had injury problems. Plus, Crisp is only set to make $10.5M over the next two seasons. He could be worth twice that. For these reasons, the Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp as insurance.

Contenders Needing a Center Fielder

Atlanta Braves traded for Mark Kotsay in an attempt to fill the void left by Andruw Jones’s free agent departure, but it has been three years since Kotsay has been both healthy and productive. The other options – Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson – don’t provide much certainty for Braves’ fans either. It will be at least half a year until Jordan Schafer is ready to take over. As currently constructed, the Braves are in the mix for the wild card, and improving their center fielder would go a long way toward getting back to the playoffs. Maybe they could convince the Red Sox to trade Crisp.

Next Year’s Free Agents

Next year’s center field market won’t be anything like this past offseason. Mike Cameron and Mark Kotsay are the best free agents-to-be, but the Brewers hold an option for 2009 on Cameron. Given the alternatives, the Brewers might determine that he’s worth the $10 million to keep around for one more year.

Pre-Free Agent Stars

B.J. Upton tops the list here. Moved away from his error-prone tendencies in the infield, Upton had a great year in 2007. His incredible bat was finally on display at the major league level, and he will continue to prove why scouts were so high on him in the past. Like several of his teammates, the Rays should be trying to lock up Upton’s arbitration and possibly one or two of his free agent years.

Several players could make their way onto this list with good 2008 seasons: Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, Melky Cabrera, Lastings Milledge, Chris Young, Jacoby Ellsbury, Felix Pie, Cameron Maybin, and Josh Hamilton.

Recap

The Giants signed Aaron Rowand for some unknown reason, and they should look to trade him when his full no-trade clause becomes limited following the season. The Red Sox should keep Coco Crisp to guard against injuries among their starters at six positions. Despite trading for Mark Kotsay, the Braves still need a center fielder. Next year’s free agent class is not very impressive, which could mean the Brewers will exercise their 2009 option on Mike Cameron’s contract. B.J. Upton is an elite player deserving of a contract extension, and a whole slew of players could prove themselves deserving with good 2008s.

---

I recently terminated my email account associated with my Fox Sports account. Unless I'm blind, you can't change your email address for your profile. This means two things: 1) I won't receive email updates when you post comments, so my responses will be more delayed than normal. 2) I'll be looking to move my blog, but I'll let you know where it ends up.

After a tremendous comeback to win the NL East, the Phillies were run over by the streaking Colorado Rockies. To their credit, they have quickly turned to offseason mode by re-signing Charlie Manuel as manager and buying out the options on Rod Barajas and Abraham Nunez’s contracts. With several holes to fill, Pat Gillick has his hands full going into 2008.

Strength

Three-fourths of the infield is the easiest strength to spot in Philadelphia. With Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, the club could keep plugging them in at first, second, and short through 2011 without even having to consider a long-term contract extension. Following that season, Howard will qualify for free agency for the first time, and Rollins’s contract will end (assuming the Phillies pick up his 2011 option at $8.5M). To balance out the offense, they’ll once again be joined by Pat Burrell out in left field. Despite his bashing by fans and media, Burrell has been consistently good the last three seasons. His OBP has been between .388 and .400, and his SLG has been between .502 and .504 over that period.

Playoff teams usually have an ace that leads the way on the pitching rubber, and the Phillies had that guy when Cole Hamels was healthy. Hamels pitched 183.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA. He was joined in the rotation at the beginning of the season by current, and future, closer Brett Myers. Myers pitched poorly in his three starts to begin the year, accumulating a 9.39 ERA over 15.1 innings, but can you really come to any conclusions over just three starts? The Phillies decided that they needed to fix their bullpen, so Myers moved to the pen. When Tom Gordon went down, Myers stepped into the closer’s role and pitched well. Since his conversion to relief work, Myers threw 53.1 innings and gave up only 17 earned runs for a 2.87 ERA. He did so while striking out 10.8 batters, walking 3.0, and giving up 0.7 HR per nine innings, which works out to a 2.79 FIP (nicely fits his actual ERA).

Concerns

Aaron Rowand is yet another data point for the idea that players perform better in contract years. Rowand beat his career averages (.286/.343/.462) in every single category by hitting .309/.374/.515. He is well-regarded for his defense as well. He enters the market along with fellow center fielders Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, and Mike Cameron. If the Phillies are unwilling to pony up the cash for one of the players, they could look internally. Shane Victorino is returning as are Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth. Either Victorino or Bourn could handle center field with the other handling right field against righties. Against lefties, Manuel should try to get Jayson Werth as many at bats as possible. Werth hit .375/.467/.591 against lefties this year and has hit them at a rate of .284/.378/.486 over his career.

The Phillies’ main concern is the pitching staff. In the rotation, Hamels will be joined by Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton. Moyer will be 45, Kendrick only struck out 49 guys in 121 major league innings, and Eaton gave up 30 HR and 71 walks in his 161.2 innings this season. All three are question marks, and there’s still one spot left to fill. Their departing free agent Kyle Lohse is quite possibly the best option on that particular market. The Phillies will need to turn to the trade market to address this need, but I’m not sure what they’ll be using to acquire other team’s talent. There isn’t much top-level talent in the system. Phillies’ management will need to get creative.

After (or before) the rotation gets fixed, Gillick will have to upgrade the bullpen. Former closer Tom Gordon will be back as will Ryan Madson. Madson strained his shoulder in late July, and it was rumored that he could’ve returned had the Phillies advanced to the NLCS. Other than those two and Brett Myers, there isn’t much good left to talk about returning from the 2007 pen. J.C. Romero is a free agent and has expressed a desire to return, but it’s questionable if his smoke and mirrors routine (1.24 K/BB in Philadelphia) will continue to fool hitters.

Overall

The Phillies have some work to do if they want to return to the top of the division, but so do the other NL East teams. With at least four years of their three great infielders and ace pitcher, the Phillies are positioned to be contenders for a while, but they need to fix their massive holes because they aren’t the only team positioned well in the NL East.

The Padres came up a bit short this season as they lost their wild card playoff game this past Monday against the Colorado Rockies. 2007 might have been the Padres' last great shot at the playoffs as the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Rockies are all on the rise. Time will tell if the Padres can keep up with the young talent those teams have arriving in the big leagues.

Strengths

The 2007 Padres were built of####reat pitching staff led by expected Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Chris Young also had a great season before an oblique injury hampered him down the stretch. Combined, Peavy and Young had 2.54 and 3.12 ERAs over 223.1 and 173 innings. If Greg Maddux returns next season, he'll more likely be with the Padres. The Padres have an $11M club option, and Maddux has a $8.75M player option. If they thought he was worth $10M for 2007 last offseason, I'd imagine they think he's worth the $11M for next year as well.

Despite the blown save in the playoff game, Trevor Hoffman put together yet another fine season in the closer's role. While he was accumulating the glory stat with 42 saves, Heath Bell pitched even better in front of him. Hoffman's 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings is great, but Bell's 2.02 ERA over 93.2 innings is even better. The Padres caught a lot of criticism for trading Scott Linebrink in July (taken as a sign they were giving up on the season), but what was missed by the mainstream media was that Joe Thatcher could hold his own in the majors. Since the trade, Linebrink pitched 25.1 innings for the Brewers and held opponents to 3.55 earned runs per nine. On the other hand, Thatcher gave up 3 earned runs over 21 innings for a 1.29 ERA. The Padres traded a pitcher that was highly regarded for an equal or better pitcher that came without the reputation. The Padres' bullpen looks solid moving forward.

The lineup doesn't have the same amount of talent as the pitching staff. The only major highlights in the lineup are Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene. Gonzalez far outshines Greene with the bat with a .282/.347/.502 line compared to Greene's .254/.291/.468. That's one of the big differences with positional baselines. Gonzalez plays first base, where expectations are significantly higher than Greene's shortstop position. Additionally, both play their positions well defensively.

Concerns

Coming into 2007, the Padres were expecting offseason acquisition Marcus Giles to rebound from his down 2006, but he failed to deliver. The club has a $4M option for next season. After hitting .229/.304/.317 in his first go-round with the team, they'll be reluctant to pick up that option. With Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi, and Kaz Matsui as the top free agent options and Matt Antonelli lighting up Hi-A and AA (.307/.404/.491) this season, they might pull the trigger on Giles' option in hopes that he can plug the hole until Antonelli is ready.

Mike Cameron and Milton Bradley are both free agents this offseason. Losing Cameron's defense in center is the #1 problem for the Padres. However, Brian Giles is the only player guaranteed a spot in the 2008 outfield, so the Padres need to fix two holes. Late-season acquisition Scott Hairston could handle left field, but his defense leads managers to question if he should be starting. I'd suggest that he could start when there is a groundball pitcher on the mound, but that still leaves a hole when Chris Young is on the hill. Young is a flyball pitcher, and the Padres will need good outfield defense during his starts, which brings us back to Cameron's loss. The good news is that if they let Cameron sign elsewhere, there are other free agent centerfielders available, including Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Aaron Rowand. It has been rumored that they could try to sign Jones to a one-year contract. If he thinks he can return to form in 2008, he should consider signing a one-year deal, but given recent offseason spending, he'll probably get a multi-year offer that he won't be able to refuse. If the Padres want to contend next year, they'll need to resolve their center field situation. Once that's taken care of, they can shift to left and decide if they want someone other than the aforementioned Hairston.

Long term, the Padres plan to shift third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, but that won't happen until Chase Headley takes the major league third base job. After hitting .330/.407/.580 at AA this year, that could happen sooner than later, which means they really only need a one-year solution. Out of this year's free agent class, Barry Bonds and Kenny Lofton fit that description. It's also possible that Milton Bradley will be looking for a one-year deal to prove his health in order to get a bigger contract next offseason. Again, whether their 2008 LF is Hairston, Bonds, Lofton, or Bradley is far smaller concern than who their 2008 CF is.

Overall

If the Padres can plug their holes at second and the outfield, they will be back in the mix for the NL West crown. Unfortunately, for Padres' fans, the long-term doesn't look as good. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies have amassed young talent that should put them at the top of the division for years to come. If a championship is what they want, next year might be their last shot.

The Minnesota Twins just weren't able to keep up with the Indians and Tigers this year. If they played in the NL Central instead of the AL, they'd only be 4.5 back. I'm not saying they're good, but they'd probably still be playing for a division championship in the NL.

The Good

Sure, Johan Santana is suffering through his worst season as a starter, but when a 3.09 ERA over 30 starts is your worst year ever, you're pretty darn good. The Twins' bullpen has once again held up its end of the bargain with Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, and Matt Guerrier all having pretty good years. The herky-jerky side-armer (Neshek) has the highest ERA of the trio at 2.75.

On the offensive side, Torii Hunter has hit .291/.337/.525 in his walk year.

The Bad

The aforementioned Hunter is a free agent at the end of the season. The Twins will have a hard time replacing him if he doesn't come back. One other position they need to fill during the offseason is third base, unless they want to throw away another season at an offensive position. Nick Punto has seen the most time there this year and has a .199/.286/.255 line, which is pretty pathetic for a shortstop and even worse for a third baseman. On the other side of the diamond, Alexi Casilla just hasn't adjusted to the majors since taking over after the Luis Castillo trade. After hitting .269/.345/.344 at AAA Rochester, Casilla has only managed a .241/.274/.282 line in the big leagues.

Looking Forward

If they can't resign Hunter, it's probably not going to matter that Francisco Liriano will be making his return, which is just another reminder of how stacked the Twins are with young pitchers. In addition, if they can't resign Hunter and don't sign either Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones, it might be time to think about trading Johan (if they can't lock him up with an extension as I suspect). Santana will be a free agent following the 2008 season, and if they lose him to free agency, they'll only get a couple draft picks in return. These high-round draft picks have tremendous value for sure, but it pales in comparison to what Santana would fetch on the trade market.

If they do resign Hunter, I'd like to see the Twins make a run at Alex Rodriguez. Given their spending history, this has a slim chance of happening, so looking at it more realistically, Mike Lowell might be a good addition at the hot corner. If they don't resign Hunter, getting Lowell won't make a difference in their division, so it would then be best to wait a year and re-evaluate how good they'll be going into 2009.

Heading into the season, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system projected the White Sox to have a 72-90 season, which made Paul Konerko jokingly say, "Well, we're screwed now. I guess we'll just have to battle through." Since the White Sox are now on pace to finish with 69 wins, it looks like this joke has become reality. On the south side of Chicago, their chances of making the playoffs haven't technically ended, but their statistical chances over a million simulations ended back on August 27, according to BP's Postseason Odds Report.

The Good

Not a whole lot here. Despite experiencing a drop-off in his strikeout rate, Bobby Jenks has significantly cut down on his walks and home runs allowed, and he even tied a record streak of retiring 41 consecutive batters. It could even be argued that Jenks deserves the record outright, since the first batter he faced in the streak grounded into a double play. In the rotation, Mark Buehrle's HR problem from 2006 has disappeared, and Javier Vazquez has figured out how to throw more than 75 pitches successfully during a start (his ERA after 75 pitches last year was 7.97, and this year a much better 3.18). After a mediocre 2006 with the Philadelphia AA affiliate Reading (4.66 ERA), he was much better at White Sox AA affiliate Birmingham this year with a 3.18 ERA. (Edit: This last sentence was about Gio Gonzalez.)

The Bad

Jermaine Dye followed up a career year with a resounding thud as he fell back to earth, hitting .252/.317/.491 after a .315/.385/.622 2006. Joe Crede followed suit as he "hit" .216/.258/.317 before having season-ending back surgery in June. You know, for a team that performed horribly after having high expectations coming into the year, they didn't have too many guys perform extraordinarily worse than could have been expected.

Looking to the Future

Heading into 2008, the White Sox need to stop sacrificing valuable offense in left and center field. They have started to play Fields in left field lately, which could signify that they plan on playing him there full-time next year. If he can begin to figure out major league pitching, that will be an upgrade over what they've gotten from the position this year. That also suggests that they plan on offering Crede arbitration. If his back is healthy, he should return to at least 2005 levels (the 30 HR from 2006 might be too much to expect). That would leave center field as the main free agent target, which lines up with quite a bit of talent (Aaron Rowand, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones) that will be available this winter.

All told, it might not matter if they get one of the FA CF because quite a few of their stars are getting old. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Dye have already started to decline, and they shouldn't be expected to produce as they once did. Once they get past the next couple years, this team could be in very bad shape. They just don't have the young talent to sustain their recent run of success. Hey, at least they got a World Series ring out of it. A lot of teams aren't that fortunate.