Now that the trade deadline has passed, let's assign grades to each team for their in-season moves (April through today).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – A

Acquired 1B Mark Teixeira for 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek

Oakland Athletics – B

Signed DH Frank Thomas

Acquired RHP Sean Gallagher, C Josh Donaldson, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and OF Matt Murton for RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin

Acquired 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman, and OF Matt Spencer for Joe Blanton

Like Billy Beane, I believe that you’re either contending or you’re rebuilding. You can’t do both at the same time. I would have probably gone the other way and chose to contend, but if you’re going to go the rebuilding route, at least they didn’t hold anything back.

 

Toronto Blue Jays – D

Released DH Frank Thomas

They had no reason to cut Frank Thomas. He wasn’t doing well to start the year, but it’s not like they had a better alternative on their roster. It’s also disappointing they weren’t able to move any of their spare parts at the deadline. A.J. Burnett’s contract is a poison pill. If he stays healthy, he’s probably going to opt for free agency at the end of the season. If he gets hurt, you’re on the hook for the next two years at $12 million each. They also had Gregg Zaun and David Eckstein come up in rumors. I don’t know if these guys will be Type-B free agents or not, but my guess is not. If that is correct, there’s no reason these guys shouldn’t have been moved for something, anything.

 

Cleveland Indians – A-

Acquired OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL for LHP CC Sabathia

Acquired C Carlos Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan for 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million

Acquired RHP Anthony Reyes for RHP Luis Perdomo

While there were many different takes on the Sabathia deal, I think it was a good move by the Indians. It could have been better if they had waited and let teams bid up the price, but LaPorta is most likely going to be better than the two draft picks they would have gotten from Sabathia’s free agent compensation. While I like the acquisition of LaPorta, I love the Casey Blake deal. Blake would have probably been gone in the offseason, and the Indians would have gotten a compensation sandwich pick. Both of the players they got are better than that sandwich pick.

 

Seattle Mariners – D+

Signed C Kenji Johjima to a 3-year, $16.5 million extension

Acquired RHP Gaby Hernandez for LHP Arthur Rhodes

At the time of the Johjima extension, the Mariners were still in the playoff race and Jeff Clement was still in the minors. With Clement being highly regarded by scouts and continuing to pound down the door to the majors, it was clear that Johjima was just holding the starting catcher spot for Clement. There was no reason to sign him to an extension. If you had known that Johjima was going to be terrible all season back in April, that’s just one more reason to not sign him to an extension. The Rhodes deal is just your typical left-handed reliever being moved at the deadline. I have no idea why Jose Vidro is still around; if his vesting option for 2009 vests, it is just terrible management. If Raul Ibanez is a potential type-A free agent, I can see why he didn’t get traded. The Mariners would have had to get something better than the two draft picks, but other teams wouldn’t want to give up that much to get Ibanez. Even considering that, Jayson Stark mentioned that the Mariners’ trade demands were “outrageous.” They should still be able to pass Jarrod Washburn through waivers and move him, but I have my doubts about the same being possible with Adrian Beltre.

 

Baltimore Orioles – C-

The Orioles made no big moves, but they didn’t really have to make any. Kevin Millar and Jay Payton are free agents after the year, but are they really of interest to any of the contenders? It could be argued that they should have traded George Sherrill at the top of his value, but the rumors suggest that other teams were making offers as if he is your typical left-handed middle reliever. That makes sense since he’s not really anything more than a typical left-handed middle reliever masquerading as a closer. Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Sherrill probably won’t be around on the next contender in Baltimore, but they’re all under contract for next year. That means they should be working the phones in the offseason to see if they can turn their mediocre veterans into something of future value. If they don’t start to do something, Nick Markakis might be a free agent before the Orioles become a playoff team.

 

Texas Rangers – C

The Rangers went into the trade deadline with a surplus of catching, and they came out without making any moves. That’s okay, since they’re all going to be around for a while. Gerald Laird is under team control through 2010, while Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez, and Taylor Teagarden all have through at least 2013. They’ve got time to make their moves. Hank Blalock and Michael Young also came up in trade rumors. Young is a bit of a surprise, but his contract does get ridiculous starting next year. From 2009 to 2013, Young will be paid $16 million a season. For comparison, PECOTA profiles him as worth $35 million over that time frame. That’s an excess of $45 million he’s owed. In addition to Blalock and Young, it would have been nice to see Milton Bradley get moved. Given what they had to move outside the catchers, it just wasn’t likely to see anything get done.

 

Tampa Bay Rays – C+

Exercised the 2009 option on LF Carl Crawford’s contract; the option was worth $8.25 million with a $2.5 million buyout

Declined the 2009 option on OF Rocco Baldelli’s contract; the option was worth $6 million with a $4 million buyout

Signed RHP Dan Wheeler to a 3-year $10.5 million extension through 2010 with a $4 million club option for 2011 ($1 million buyout)

Some people are upset that the Rays didn’t make a move to enhance their postseason chances in 2008, but I wonder something along the lines of what Derek Jacques suggested in the Baseball Prospectus Roundtable. Since they’re so loaded with prospects, were teams asking for more from the Rays than they were from other teams in hope that they would cave under pressure to contend now? Regarding the contracts done on April 1st, the Rays might have changed their mind about the Rocco Baldelli option decision. At the time, nobody knew if he’d be able to come back from mitochondrial disease and play again, so it was an easy decision to decline the option. With Rocco nearing his return to the majors, he might be worth that option. While he’s probably not going to be worth $6 million next year, you’re already on the hook for $4 million of it. Is he worth having on the roster for $2 million? That answer might be different than it was on April 1st.

 

Boston Red Sox – B-

Acquired LF Jason Bay for LF Manny Ramirez, RHP Craig Hansen, OF Brandon Moss, and $7 million

This is one trade where I disagree with a lot of people. The difference between the 2008 version of Manny Ramirez and the 2008 version of Jason Bay just isn’t that much. WARP has it at 0.5 wins. When you add in that Bay is under contract for 2009 at $7.5 million, going from Ramirez to Bay is an upgrade. Was that upgrade worth Hansen, Moss, and a lot of cold hard cash? Probably not, but I think the Red Sox just felt that Ramirez had to go. Don’t get me wrong; Hansen and Moss were never going to be worth much to the Red Sox, but they still had value. For 2008, the Red Sox got slightly worse. For 2009, this was a great move.

 

Kansas City Royals – C

Jose Guillen and his contract were unlikely to be wanted by other teams, but there were others that could have been traded. Mark Grudzielanek, Ron Mahay, and Miguel Olivo would have made sense to move. There probably wasn’t much interest in Grudzielanek, but Mahay and Olivo definitely generated some rumors. Mahay and Olivo are under team control for 2009, so the urgency to move them just wasn’t there.

 

Detroit Tigers – C

Acquired RHP Kyle Farnsworth for C Ivan Rodriguez

The Tigers were in a tough situation this trade deadline. Their chances at the postseason aren’t that great (currently 6 GB of the White Sox and Twins), but they spent the offseason mortgaging the future for 2008. They were all-in before the season even began. Having already moved their top prospects in the offseason, they had nothing left to trade for in-season help. They did the best they could by sending Pudge to the Yankees for Farnsworth. They aren’t losing much by using Brandon Inge behind the plate in Rodriguez’s stead while adding another flamethrower to their bullpen. Not a bad move, but not really an impact one either.

 

Minnesota Twins – D

Recalled LHP Francisco Liriano from AAA Rochester; Designated RHP Livan Hernandez for assignment

Livan Hernandez proved that he wasn’t worth keeping in the rotation over a month ago, but the Twins refused to make a move. That was okay at the time because Liriano was coming off consecutive outings where he gave up 5 runs in 5 IP and 5 runs in 5.1 IP. With Liriano not yet ready to return to the majors, it was acceptable to keep giving the ball to Hernandez. After Livan gave up 6 runs in 4.1 IP on July 9th, it should have been time to make this move. Prior to Livan’s next start on July 19th, Liriano had given up 1 run in his last 28 IP. Instead, Liriano got two more minor league starts. So what changed since July 19th, the trade deadline passed and the Twins found that nobody would trade for Hernandez. Wasn’t that known two weeks ago though?

On the no-trade front, it should have been pretty easy for the Twins to make upgrades. The exciting Carlos Gomez isn’t putting any runs on the scoreboard by hitting .257/.289/.353, but he is leading the team in at-bats. Plus, Brendan Harris has 336 at-bats while hitting .262/.321/.381. It’s hard for defense to make up for those numbers, but it’s not hard to improve your team when you have two guys hitting like that.

 

Chicago White Sox – I

Acquired OF Ken Griffey, Jr. and ~$4 million for RHP Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar

I give this one an incomplete because it’s going to depend on how Ozzie Guillen sets up his lineups. If they follow through on their promise to Griffey and play him every day in center field, it’s possible that this trade actually makes them worse. If they quickly realize what everyone else has – that Griffey can’t play center anymore – Griffey could be a nice platoon partner for Paul Konerko at first base. For this trade to improve the White Sox, it’s going to take convincing Griffey that he should play first. Given how long it took the Reds to move Griffey to right, that will probably take too long.

 

New York Yankees – B-

Signed 1B Richie Sexson

Acquired OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte for RHPs Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf, and OF Jose Tabata

Acquired C Ivan Rodriguez for RHP Kyle Farnsworth

I’m sure there are a lot of people upset with the Yankees’ unwillingness to trade away their farm system for a better shot at the 2008 playoffs, but Brian Cashman has a plan. He was able to pull off some minor moves without giving up much, but the big question is do they have enough to make the playoffs? I don’t think so, but it’s going to be close.

Last Sunday, I wrote about the flawed All-Star selection process. Before getting into today’s topic, I want to respond to a few comments from last week. First, I used Joe Crede as the example because Alex Rodriguez should have been a unanimous selection at 3B. For Crede to be elected because some players couldn’t see that Rodriguez is the best AL 3B is ridiculous. I’ll admit that Jason Varitek would have been a better example than Crede, but Rodriguez was a better example than Joe Mauer.

The second issue is with the start of All-Star balloting. I have no problems with voting starting at the beginning of May. The point brought up against it was that Carlos Quentin wasn’t on the ballot because he hadn’t stepped in as starter yet. Actually, that’s false. Quentin has been starting since April 3rd. Instead of listing Quentin on the ballot, Jerry Owens was listed, and he hasn’t even had a single plate appearance in 2008. This isn’t really an issue of when the voting starts; it’s an issue of “how did MLB end up listing Jerry Owens on the ballot without a single plate appearance?”

The last issue is that several of the comments were complaining about the fan vote with many of you suggesting that the players and managers have a better idea of who should be on the All-Star team. That is the main topic of this post.

Instead of looking directly at the players the fans voted in, I decided to look at the rosters as a whole and find the players that don’t belong objectively. When people choose All-Stars, there are two separate paths that are usually used. The first is the most common, and that is to select the All-Stars based completely on the first half of the season. The second is the one I generally use, and that is to pick the players that are most likely to put together the best season, which takes into account both their season-to-date stats and expectations on whether or not they’re likely to keep it up. For example, Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Braun are performing similarly, but Braun would get my vote well before Ludwick would. Back to the objective process, I wanted to incorporate both of those selection methods, so using the players’ WARP totals from 2005 to 2008 (minor league numbers included), I computed the average 2008 WARP and the average 2005-to-2008 WARP for the All-Stars. I have listed all of the players that have WARP totals worse than one standard deviation below average in either category.

Poor All-Star Selections by 2008 WARP: Joe Crede, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Varitek, Billy Wagner

Poor All-Star Selections by 2005-to-2008 WARP: Justin Duchscherer, Josh Hamilton, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Dioner Navarro, Joakim Soria, Edinson Volquez, Kerry Wood

Poor All-Selections by Both Methods: Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, George Sherrill, Brian Wilson

Let’s look at how those players made the All-Star team, starting with those selected by the fans.

Poor Fan Selections: Josh Hamilton, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano (4 out of their 17 selections, or 23.5%)

Poor Player Selections: Joe Crede, Tim Lincecum, Nate McLouth, Carlos Quentin, Joakim Soria, Jason Varitek, Edinson Volquez, Brian Wilson, Kerry Wood (9 out of 33, or 27.3%)

Poor Manager Selections: Justin Duchscherer, Cristian Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Dioner Navarro, George Sherrill, Billy Wagner (6 out of 12, or 50%)

The data suggests that the managers are the ones screwing up. If we want to look at just the players that don’t are worse than one standard deviation below average in both categories, that’s one player selection and three manager selections. No matter how I look at the data, it doesn’t appear to me that it’s the fans screwing up.

Looking at it more subjectively, Varitek, Crede, Guzman, and Sherrill are the players that don’t belong on the All-Star team. As I’ve already stated, I think Varitek and Crede were selected because Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez were close to unanimous selections at their positions, which resulted in Varitek and Crede only needing a handful of player votes to make the team. This is a problem that needs fixed. Guzman is the Nationals’ rep, and looking at their roster, there’s not really anyone else to pick. I have no problem with requiring one player from each team even when it means that Cristian Guzman is a 2008 All-Star. Likewise, Sherrill is the Orioles’ rep, but Brian Roberts would have been a much better selection. If Roberts were selected instead of Sherrill, the 12-pitcher restriction would have knocked Dioner Navarro off the team. Roberts and CC Sabathia (an AL player at the time) are better choices than Sherrill and Navarro. In total, I find that to be two bad choices by the player vote process (not the players), one bad choice by necessity, and one bad choice by Terry Francona.

If two bad choices were in fact by the player vote process, how do we go about fixing it? As I suggested last Sunday, I think it can be fixed with one easy change: make the players vote for two players at every position. That should remove any chance of a player making the All-Star team because someone else (Joe Mauer or Alex Rodriguez) was a near-unanimous selection.

Oh, and we should have Senator Mitchell look into how Jerry Owens got listed on the All-Star ballot.

Now that the All-Star teams have been announced, you have probably seen and will see articles complaining about All-Star snubs and/or undeserving All-Stars. This is inevitable no matter what. While I surely don't agree with all of the selections and non-selections, it is the process I want changed. This year, it is Joe Crede's selection that demonstrates this best. Let me repeat. I'm not upset with the fact that Crede was selected; I'm upset with the process.

So how exactly was Crede selected to the All-Star team? Much like the fans vote for the All-Star team, the players also vote. If the fans' selection and the players' selection are identical, the players' second choice is selected to the All-Star team. Now, if we were to examine the players' voting results (which I don't think are released), I'd imagine that over 90% of the players voted for Alex Rodriguez at 3B. Since the fans selected Rodriguez, it goes to the players' second choice. Let's say that 95% of players chose Rodriguez. That means that the players' second choice received less than 5% of the vote. Going deeper into that and assuming that all players were voting for who they thought was the best AL 3B, we are looking at the 5% of the player population that think Alex Rodriguez is not the top AL 3B. Should we really be relying on those players to make an All-Star selection?

Putting that aside, just how many votes did Joe Crede receive? If we're using the above example, 5% would mean that there were only 38 votes for non-A-Rod third basemen. Let's say they were nearly split between Mike Lowell and Crede. That means that Crede would have only needed 20 votes to make the All-Star team. Now, if we consider other percentages of A-Rod votes (as shown below), you'll see that a second selection at a position with a clear #1 still doesn't require a whole lot of votes. Basically, with Alex Rodriguez being the clear #1 AL 3B, it's very easy for an undeserving player to be selected to the All-Star game. Consider this: AL 3B Frank Cheater could slip his teammates a few bucks to have them vote for him. That's 25 votes going his way. If most votes are for Rodriguez, Mr. Cheater could slip his way onto the All-Star team. I certainly don't think anyone has ever done this, but it's certainly possible for a player to do this when there's a clear #1 at his position.

95% => 2.5%, or 20 votes, required for selection
90% => 5%, or 38 votes, required for selection
85% => 7.5%, or 57 votes, required for selection
80% => 10%, or 75 votes, required for selection

If the idea is to include both the fans' and the players' opinions, there are a couple different ways to tweak the current system to make it better. [1] Only include the players' first selection. If it's the same as the fans', then that leaves one more roster spot for the manager to select a player. OR [2] Have the players vote for twice as many guys as the fans. In this way, no one will get selected while receiving less than 100 votes as I suspect Crede has.

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Official Birk's Blog Announcement: The Buyer or Seller series has been canceled. Birk's Blog HQ simply doesn't have the resources to continue its production. We thank you for your support.

Back to being serious, I find that people are more interested in what teams are going to do and not what I think they should do. My hope was to generate discussion about the teams and what they should do. While that was successful for the Mariners and Cubs, the other 5 posts have had very little response.

If you asked someone to name the surprise team of 2008, you’d most likely be told the Tampa Bay Rays. PECOTA would disagree. What can the Rays do to enhance their chances in 2008 without hurting their chances down the road?

Holes to Fill

I would argue that their number one hole is at shortstop, where Jason Bartlett has not lived up to expectations since coming over from Minnesota. After hitting a modest .265/.339/.361 in 2007, Bartlett has hit an even worse .248/.294/.279 in 2008. While he has helped the Rays vastly improve their defense, it’s mostly because of how bad Brendan Harris was last year. Harris had an RZR of .760, 86 Rate, and -12 FRAA in 2007. Bartlett is only at an RZR of .822, 96 Rate, and -3 FRAA this year. So while he’s improved their SS defense over last year, it’s only because he’s been average to Harris’s not-quite-average defense. With both Reid Brignac and Tim Beckham in their farm system, they don’t need a long-term fix at short, but a short-term fix could help them. Unfortunately, that guy isn’t available by trade.

Other places they could try to upgrade include the rotation, the bullpen, and a right-handed outfielder. On the pitching side of things, it’s mostly to counteract risks in their current staff, whether that’s due to inexperience or health. As for the right-handed outfielder, that’s because Eric Hinske has only managed lines of .176/.317/.294 in 2008 and .228/.297/.372 in his career against left-handed pitchers. While Jonny Gomes can hit lefties (.230/.324/.508 in 2008 and .282/.384/.532 career), he’s already doing that for Cliff Floyd at DH. Who are possible targets for these positions? Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times mentions C.C. Sabathia, Brian Fuentes, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady. In my opinion, those three outfielders are overkill for what they need, but they could always flip Hinske for something else if they acquired one of them.

Trade Bait

With 5 of the top 40 prospects still in the minor leagues, the Rays could do whatever they want in the trade market. Those five prospects are David Price, Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings, Reid Brignac, and Jacob McGee. Even if they don’t make a big move, their system is more than just those 5 guys. The Rays have a ton of good prospects that they could use to make minor upgrades throughout the roster to bolster their chances in 2008.

Holes: SS, RH RF, SP, RP

Trade Bait: too many names to list

After writing about the Cubs a couple days ago, it’s now time to talk about the team I picked to beat them in the World Series: the Boston Red Sox. Now let’s look at the defending World Champs to see if they have areas to improve before the trade deadline.

First, among position players, their only two potential weaknesses are at SS and C. At SS, Julio Lugo is getting on base really well this season, but his defense is once again suspect, at least according to the advanced statistics. He’s at -2 FRAA, 83 Rate, and .770 RZR. That RZR ranks last among MLB shortstops. The bad news is that Lugo is still signed for 3 more years, so he needs to play if he’s to provide value (either on the field or in trade). If the Sox end up looking for alternatives, they might not have to look any farther than Jed Lowrie. Lowrie has hit at both AAA (.279/.375/.435) and in the majors (.310/.340/.476). Plus, he’s held his own on defense, though in very limited time.

At catcher, Jason Varitek’s age might have caught up to him. He’s striking out 26.9% of the time. While that’s not much worse than his career 22.9%, his walk rate has also dropped to 8.6% (career 10.6%). That amounts to a career low 0.35 BB/K (career 0.52). On top of it, his liner rate has dropped to 11.7% (career 20.4%). However, there aren’t really any alternatives. Even if there were options, could you see the Red Sox choosing someone over Varitek? (On the other hand, did you expect them to trade Nomar Garciaparra?)

On the mound, the Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches. With Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, and Bartolo Colon, the Red Sox have plenty of SP to choose from, but that hasn’t stopped them from coming up in the C.C. Sabathia trade rumors. Moving to the later innings, the Red Sox also have a full stable of options: Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, and Manny Delcarmen among others. If they choose to acquire a pitcher, more power to them.

Potential holes to fill: C, SS

Potential trade bait: Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp (he's still here?), Ryan Kalish, Lars Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden (Buchholz and Masterson only listed for a potential Sabathia deal)