Birk's Blog
by: birk
B | S: Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 03, 2008 | 7:29PM | report this

I’m trying out a new format today. Let me know if you think it’s better than the old one.

Window of Opportunity: 2008-2009 with a good possibility of extending it

C: Chris Coste deserves more playing time (.317/.376/.549 vs. Carlos Ruiz’s .213/.308/.287)

1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF: Set with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, and Shane Victorino

3B: Greg Dobbs deserves more playing time against RHP (.330/.368/.453)

RF: Jayson Werth has done his part by hitting lefties .299/.365/.649, but Geoff Jenkins hasn’t hit righties so far (only .254/.304/.406). However, Jenkins’ BABIP (batting average on balls in play) sits 40 points lower than expected (based on line drive rate and career average), so things can turn around quickly.

SP: Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer are doing their part, but Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, and Brett Myers have question marks. Kendrick’s and Eaton’s K/9 rates of 4.00 and 4.70 mean they’re walking a fine line, while Myers’ BB/9 of 3.90 and HR/9 of 2.12 are the reason why he’s back in the minors. Acquiring a starter, as rumored, would help them considerably in 2008.

Before I talk about the Phillies’ bullpen, I want to mention how I view bullpens in general. First, they shouldn’t be a concern until the rest of the team is ready to compete. In other words, a top closer on a losing team is a waste of money (see Jose Valverde and Francisco Cordero). Second, while you don’t want to ignore the back of the bullpen, only the top two or three are really important to your success. To make my point, consider who pitches the 8th and 9th innings in tight games, they’re usually the same guys for every team. When it comes to the playoffs, it is the same guys every night. Third, relief pitchers are the most variable players from year-to-year, so investing a lot of money in your bullpen means nothing when it comes to the performance you’ll get. Consider the Indians’ bullpen over the last four years: 12.506 WXRL in 2005, -1.532 in 2006, 13.514 in 2007, and -2.908 in 2008.

So when it comes to building a bullpen as the trade deadline approaches, I generally don’t worry about it unless it’s in shambles or lacking a top-of-the-line closer. With that in mind, let’s get back to the Phillies.

RP: With Brad Lidge, Chad Durbin, and Ryan Madson pitching well with good peripherals, I don’t consider this an area in need of help, but that hasn’t stopped the Phillies from being mentioned in the Brian Fuentes rumors.

Holes to Fill: SP

Trade Bait (Speculation): Carlos Carrasco, Antonio ####o, Josh Outman, Jason Donald

Add a comment   categories: MLB, Buyer or Seller, Philadelphia Phillies, Chris Coste, Carlos Ruiz, Greg Dobbs, Geoff Jenkins, Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton, Brett Myers
 
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birk
This is baseball. Let's have some fun. Recommended Websites: MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
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