If you asked someone to name the surprise team of 2008, you’d
most likely be told the Tampa Bay Rays. PECOTA would
disagree. What can the Rays do to enhance their chances in 2008 without
hurting their chances down the road?
Holes to Fill
I would argue that their number one hole is at shortstop,
where Jason Bartlett has not lived up to expectations since coming over from
Minnesota. After hitting a modest .265/.339/.361 in 2007, Bartlett has hit an even
worse .248/.294/.279 in 2008. While he has helped the Rays vastly improve their
defense, it’s mostly because of how bad Brendan Harris was last year. Harris
had an RZR
of .760, 86 Rate,
and -12 FRAA
in 2007. Bartlett is only at an RZR of .822, 96 Rate, and -3 FRAA this year. So
while he’s improved their SS defense over last year, it’s only because he’s
been average to Harris’s not-quite-average defense. With both Reid Brignac and Tim
Beckham in their farm system, they don’t need a long-term fix at short, but a
short-term fix could help them. Unfortunately, that guy isn’t
available by trade.
Other places they could try to upgrade include the rotation,
the bullpen, and a right-handed outfielder. On the pitching side of things, it’s
mostly to counteract risks in their current staff, whether that’s due to
inexperience or health. As for the right-handed outfielder, that’s because Eric
Hinske has only managed lines of .176/.317/.294 in 2008 and .228/.297/.372 in
his career against left-handed pitchers. While Jonny Gomes can hit lefties (.230/.324/.508
in 2008 and .282/.384/.532 career), he’s already doing that for Cliff Floyd at
DH. Who are possible targets for these positions? Marc
Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times mentions C.C. Sabathia, Brian Fuentes,
Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady. In my opinion, those three outfielders are
overkill for what they need, but they could always flip Hinske for something
else if they acquired one of them.
Trade Bait
With 5 of the top 40
prospects still in the minor leagues, the Rays could do whatever they want
in the trade market. Those five prospects are David Price, Wade Davis, Desmond
Jennings, Reid Brignac, and Jacob McGee. Even if they don’t make a big move,
their system is more than just those 5 guys. The Rays have a ton of good prospects
that they could use to make minor upgrades throughout the roster to bolster
their chances in 2008.
The way I see it, and I think the team's owner would agree, the Rays are a year ahead of schedule concerning their rise in the standings this season. They have good young talent waiting in the wings while they are playing and winning as a team with many contributors on the big league level. All this and it's so refreshing not to see any prima donnas on the team. Why in the world would they want to change anything? If they trade off any of their young talent for somebody with a year or two left in their career I think that would be a sin.
This is a great run they are on and I think they'd be out of their ever lovin' mind to mess with the chemistry of this team.
I'm sure many teams are drooling all over themselves looking at the young talent on the Rays... Let em drool!
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
