The Mariners are a team I generally
take a
lot of flack
about, but I think that might be a little different now. The Mariners are doing
worse than anyone expected, and at 19.5 GB, the Mariners are expected to be
sellers this season. With several high salaries on the roster and not much down
on the farm with Jeff Clement already in the majors, it’s hard to say when the
Mariners should target for contention. Let’s take a look before setting a
target year.
Potential Starters under
Contract for 2009
C Kenji Johjima, C Jeff Clement, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre,
SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Wladimir Balentien, OF Jeremy Reed
SP Felix Hernandez, SP Erik Bedard, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP
Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista
CL J.J. Putz
If Washburn, Silva, and Batista were not performing so
poorly, I’d suggest that they try to trade them off for prospects. Alas, that
doesn’t appear to be an option. What does this team need to win in 2009? In my
opinion, they’d need Washburn, Silva, and Batista to return to league-average
form, and they’d need to bring in two of the top offensive free agents (Mark
Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley). Given that you can’t expect
all three of those pitchers to return to form, that means they’d need to bring
in a good starting pitcher as well. In the end, it would be nearly impossible
to get three top free agents to join the Mariners in the same offseason, mostly
due to cost. In the end, I’d implode this thing and start from scratch. That
means making trades that will make the 2008, 2009, and 2010 teams worse, but as
Billy
Beane says, “You’re either building something that’s special or you have
something that’s special. In between is just no man’s land.” It’s time for the
Mariners to get out of no man’s land and start building something special. Let’s
set 2011 as the target date.
Players to Cut
1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro
Just like when managers get fired, sometimes players become
scapegoats as well. However, Sexson and Vidro have played so horribly that they
deserve their fate. I don’t think either will get anything back in trade, and
since they aren’t part of the organization’s future, it’s time to move on
without them.
Players to Trade This
Season
3B Adrian Beltre, LF Raul Ibanez, SP Erik Bedard
Raul Ibanez is the obvious name here as he’s a free agent
this offseason. Beltre and Bedard are both under team contract for 2009, but
they shouldn’t be a part of a rebuilding effort. Beltre is 29 and starting to
enter the decline phase of his career. The Mariners should get what they can
for him now rather than wait for him to leave as a free agent. Bedard is also
29, and as I read somewhere (sorry, I can’t find it back), remove his 2007
season and all of a sudden, it doesn’t look like Bedard is having a down year.
His K/9 rates over the last 5 years are 7.93, 7.94, 7.84, 10.93, and 8.06. Now,
you tell me which one looks out of place. It’s starting to look like last year
was a fluke for Erik Bedard. As I said, he’s a free agent following the 2009
season, and it doesn’t sound like the Mariners clubhouse is going to miss him
anytime soon. They might as well turn him into prospects now.
Players to Trade down
the Road
C Kenji Johjima, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP
Miguel Batista, RP J.J. Putz
Right now, they have to hold onto these guys due to
underperformance and/or injury, but I wouldn’t consider any of them to be worth
holding onto over the long-term. Only Silva’s younger than 30, but the Mariners
need all of them to regain their productivity in order to get meaningful offers
in return.
Core to Build Around
C Jeff Clement, OF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez
Clement might not stick at catcher due to defensive
concerns, but his bat appears to be capable of starting at 1B. They should give
him as much time as possible at catcher to see if he can stick, but he has his
doubters. King Felix needs to stay healthy, but the guy I want to talk about is
Ichiro. While I’m skeptical that he’s worth the $90 million he signed for less
than a year ago, Seattle’s the only place where he’s possibly worth it. If the
Japanese influence wasn’t so large, I’d suggest they (gasp) trade Ichiro, but
it is. While they rebuild, maybe they can use Ichiro to fool people into
thinking they’re not.
Let me hear your thoughts about what the Mariners should do.
I’m sure there are several people who disagree with mine. It took a while to
get myself off the fence about their future, but remembering the Billy Beane
quote did it for me.
I agree that Clement may be better at 1B than at catcher. The bat will start to come around, but his defense is certainly not as good as KJoh, and KJoh is not a top 5 defensive catcher. Just watching last night, he tries to catch across his body rather than move in front of a ball in the dirt. His reaction time is a little slow, expecting a pitch inside and having to adjust to one in the dirt outside is part of being a MLB catcher, and Clement hasn't shown me he is a capable one yet.
I would like to see Raul stick around next year as DH and spell Clement or someone at 1B. He's not the only one struggling this year, but he's also taking up the RBI slack left from Guillen's departure. His bat has been sound for the last couple years here.
Washburn either gets traded to an NL team or takes a move to the pen tostay in Seattle. Batista can probably go. JJ may have had a "Bedard year" last year. We'll see how he looks when he comes off the DL.
Bedard is a cancer. He's an average pitcher at best; he'll have a decent ERA, but his durability is in question for a high dollar SP. And he's NOT a TEAM player. Get what we can for him.
A lot of players will be gone by or shortly after the deadline. I'm sure Pelekoudas is working on trying to move Sexson and get something in return, even if it's just a draft pick, but he's a tough sell right now.
Beltre is a FA after this season and Raul is signed through 2009 - you had it backwards, so to speak. Beltre should be gone, hopefully via trade, but I don't know how much we can expect in return for a guy hitting .240 and making $13.4 million for the season. Raul will stay. He needs to stay. He and Lopez have been the only run producers for this club, and he is a very viable option for 1B/DH in 2009.
If the M's trade Felix, I will quit being a Mariners fan until new ownership is in place. I would cheer for my 2nd favorite club, the Reds, and I not watch an M's game or attend one or buy any merchandise.
That being said, there are 24 guys on the roster that could, should, or may be on the block. Ichiro likely will not go anywhere, but if the M's can make a deal that would swing several TOP prospects their way, I say not pulling that trigger is lunacy. I'd hate to see him go, as he is the catalyst for the lineup, but Seattle needs to look 4 years down the road and consider where they'll be with a 38-year-old CF/RF and no one ready to step in when he retires.
According to Cot's Baseball Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com), Beltre is signed through 2009 and Ibanez through 2008. I was able to confirm both with other sources
(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news /story?id=1947751,
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ht ml/mariners/2002825459_mari24.html) .
The reason I wouldn't trade Johjima right now is that he is doing horribly. Give him a chance to rebound next season, and he should command more in a trade.
I don't disagree about Putz, but he needs to be healthy for someone to be willing to trade for him.
I've changed my mind about Ichiro. Once he gets his batting average up to its normal levels, it's time to trade him. As rmac1973 said, if the Mariners rebuild, Ichiro will be 38 by the time they're good again. Trade him for some prospects and kick the rebuilding process into high gear.
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
Recommended Websites:
MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
