Birk's Blog
by: birk
Fantasy Trades
Mar 05, 2008 | 7:26PM | report this

Trading in fantasy sports is one of the best parts of the hobby, but often, there is uneasiness when it comes to strategizing for that big trade. Before making a trade, come up with a reason for making a trade first. Don’t trade just so you can say you made a trade. If you don’t have a plan, you’re probably going to screw up. I’m not claiming that I’m a great fantasy trader, but I like to think I know a thing or two. To come up with your own conclusions, I’ll list my trades that I’ve made last year and this year at the end. Yes, I’ve already made a post-draft trade in one league.

First of all, little trades are pointless. For example, take a trade that has happened in one of my leagues: Dmitri Young for Scott Rolen. Now, I’m not trying to call you guys out if you’re reading, but honestly, what’s the point? I didn’t even have either one on my pre-draft rankings. You swapped your last round picks. Is this much different than making a waiver claim?

If you want to make an impact, you’re going to have to give up something to get something. In my experience, there are a few reasons for making a trade:

1. You have more starter-caliber players at a position than you can put in an optimal lineup.

2. Someone else has more starter-caliber players at a position than you can put in an optimal lineup.

3. You’re slotted into the standings in a category but could really use some help in another category. (rotisserie leagues only)

4. You get the first pick when you really, really didn’t want it. (doesn’t apply to most people)

For the first example, I’ll go back to an auto-pick, 8-team draft I took part in last year, which happens to be the last auto-pick draft in which I will ever participate. Last year, I was on the bandwagon that catchers were extremely shallow, so you should pick one of the top catchers early on. Of course, my pre-draft rankings resembled those beliefs. In the third round, Joe Mauer was selected for me. I liked the pick, but my fifth round pick is where I got upset. In the fifth round, the computer selected Victor Martinez as my 1B. Martinez is one of the top catchers, but he’s a bottom-of-the-barrel fantasy first baseman. That’s not the end of the story, though. It had selected David Wright and Garrett Atkins before Prince Fielder came up on my rankings. Since Yahoo doesn’t allow its computer to select bench players before all starting roster spots are filled, it passed over Prince for SIX straight rounds until one team was able to “settle” on him as their starting first baseman. More to the point, I had arguably the top two catchers with only one catcher spot on the roster, so I knew somebody needed a catcher. I ended up trading Martinez, Jeff Francoeur, and Orlando Hudson for Vernon Wells and Felipe Lopez, which didn’t address my first base need but it was a pretty good deal at the time. Of course, Wells stunk up the joint, but hindsight is 20/20.

For the second, I’ll use a current league I’m in as an example. One particular team ended up with Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts. While he could use Roberts as his utility player, that’s not an optimal lineup. He can get someone in return that would better fit his team. When you put on top of it that he also drafted Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, he can really put one of those second basemen to better use as trade bait. Once you beat everyone in steals by one, every additional steal is worthless. If you need steals or a 2B and another team has extra players in a category or position like this, you might be able to get a player like Roberts for less than full price.

In rotisserie leagues, I’ve often found that I have too much of a certain category and need to improve in another. For me, it’s usually too many saves and not enough stolen bases. Last year, I was in a league using holds instead of WHIP. I complained that holds were a meaningless stat, but they wouldn’t budge so I put together a strategy that ended up taking advantage of this format. Too many people consider that the top holds guy will have about the same number of holds as the top saves guy has saves, so they value a hold equal to a save. That’s simply not the case. On any given night, there are typically only 30 guys that have a shot at a save, but there are over 150 guys with a shot at a hold. Closers are scarce; middle relievers are not. In the draft, I ended up with 6 closers. Once I built up a sizeable lead in saves by midseason, I looked for teams in need of saves, traded away my closers for help in other areas, and picked up middle relievers off the free agent list for holds. The key is that I didn’t need any more saves, but I could use some additional help in other areas. Since someone else needed saves, making a trade was pretty easy.

As for the fourth reason, this applies to this season. In my opinion, the only shortstops worth their average draft position (ADP) are Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes. Can you tell what position I want in the first round? For this reason, I did and do not want the #1 overall selection. When I ended up with the #1 overall pick last week, I was not happy. I took Alex Rodriguez, but at the end of the draft, I had J.J. Hardy as my shortstop. To correct this problem, I ended up trading Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera for Hanley Ramirez and Cole Hamels. Now, my third base spot is in the hands of one Dusty Baker. Baker is notorious for benching young, productive players for veterans, but hopefully, Edwin Encarnacion can prove to Baker that he deserves to start. If not, I’m pretty much up the creek. If I had selected Hanley in the first round, I would have taken Chipper Jones instead of John Smoltz in the fifth round (and still selected Encarnacion later), and everything would have been great. If I’m unfortunate enough to get the #1 pick again this year, I just might take Hanley instead.

Obviously, there are other reasons for making a trade, but I find these reasons as simple, easy ways to use trades to make your team better.

Here’s my list of trades I’ve made last year (4 leagues) and this year (1 league drafted) with the players I’m getting on the right:

  1. Jeff Francoeur, Orlando Hudson, Victor Martinez for Vernon Wells and Felipe Lopez
  2. Joakim Soria for Aaron Harang
    a. I’ve been in this league with friends for about 8 years. They haven’t learned that players can have bad stretches for no reason whatsoever. Harang had a 5.04 ERA. In his first game on my team, he threw a complete game and only gave up one run.
  3. Ted Lilly for Todd Helton
  4. Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Valverde for Albert Pujols
    a. I’m not really sure what happened here. He must have been a big Gonzalez believer.
  5. Todd Helton, Dan Wheeler, Dan Haren for Carlos Lee, Ryan Howard, Randy Johnson
    a. Wheeler was Astros’ closer. Haren had a 1.64 ERA. Howard was hitting .220 with 9 HRs.
  6. Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy, Jeremy Accardo for Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford
    a. Hudson and Hardy were off to hot starts and Accardo was a closer.
  7. Corey Hart, Cole Hamels for Hanley Ramirez, Jose Valverde
  8. Vernon Wells, Al Reyes for Manny Ramirez
  9. Francisco Cordero for David Wright
    a. When people get desperate for a closer, it’s amazing what some people will do.
  10. Francisco Cordero for C.C. Sabathia
  11. Victor Martinez for Derek Jeter
  12. Adam Dunn, Rich Hill for Alfonso Soriano
  13. Derek Jeter, Dan Uggla for Orlando Hudson, Jose Reyes
  14. Prince Fielder for Grady Sizemore
  15. Manny Ramirez, Ian Snell for Carl Crawford, Kelvim Escobar
  16. Lance Berkman for Carl Crawford
    a. See a speed trend? Soriano, Reyes, Sizemore, Crawford x2
  17. Mike Lowell, Vladimir Guerrero, Gil Meche for David Wright, Javier Vazquez
  18. Francisco Cordero, Eric Gagne for Brian Roberts
  19. Alfonso Soriano, Javier Vazquez for Jake Peavy
  20. Al Reyes for Ray Durham
    a. Placement trade – I wanted movement in the saves category so that one of my fellow contenders would lose a point in the standings. I’m pretty sure I cut Durham a couple days after the trade.
  21. Matt Holliday, Brett Myers, Kevin Gregg for Jake Peavy, Yovani Gallardo
  22. Chad Cordero for Ryan Theriot
    a. See #20.
  23. Kevin Gregg for Dan Wheeler
    a. See #22, but I kept Wheeler for holds.
  24. Brad Lidge, Al Reyes for Pat Neshek
    a. See #23.
  25. Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera for Hanley Ramirez, Cole Hamels

Takeaways

  1. I’m glad I’m changing up the leagues I’m joining this year. I’m only returning to two of last year’s leagues. If you’re always successful in your leagues and your opponents aren’t that good, look for another league with better competition.
  2. It’s hard to see why I made all these moves without knowing which teams go with what trades.
  3. If I’m in your league, expect to get a trade proposal from me at some point this year.
  4. When other team owners get desperate, be the first in line to make a trade. They just might agree to something they wouldn’t have two weeks ago.
  5. Don’t limit yourself to the players on your roster. If you think your best lineup includes someone on another roster, find out what it takes to get that player. Just don’t pay too much for him.
  6. Take advantage of the fantasy baseball system you are using. If their rankings place somebody higher than you think they should be, trade them away. If their rankings place somebody lower than they should be, trade for them.
  7. Wheel and deal, have some fun, it’s only a game.

I still have to finish up corner outfielders and pitchers on the other series, but I felt like now was the right time to post this article.
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birk
This is baseball. Let's have some fun. Recommended Websites: MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
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