Last season, the Brewers jumped into
the NL Central picture only to fall behind the Cubs late in the year. This
season, the Brewers and Cubs are back for another round, and the Reds and
Astros have visions of joining them at the top of the standings.
Chicago
Cubs – This offseason, the Cubs have
acquired Kosuke Fukudome to fill the void left by the trade of Jacques Jones.
Otherwise, they are returning most of the division champion team from last
year. There isn’t really much left to be done before the spring training. Other
than a few relief pitchers, Derrek Lee is their next major free agent departure,
but that doesn’t happen for three more seasons. They have been rumored to be
trading for Brian Roberts, but I just don’t see why. Roberts and Mark DeRosa
are both signed through 2009, and their last two seasons have been nearly
identical rate-wise (minus the stolen base category). Unless DeRosa returns to
his pre-2006 form, Roberts isn’t much of an upgrade. Plus, Eric Patterson doesn’t
have much left to prove at AAA, and none of the three can play short if Ronny
Cedeno fails to turn his ability into major league production once again (no,
Ryan Theriot and his .672 OPS are not the solution). With their current roster,
the Cubs should be near the top of the division once again.
Cincinnati
Reds – The Reds’ top-heavy farm system is
about to become more balanced because Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Jay Bruce
are set to lose their eligibility for prospect lists. Bailey is slated to join
the rotation out of spring training, and the trade of Josh Hamilton was to open
up center for Bruce. Votto still has Scott Hatteberg standing in his way, but
Hatteberg shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for Votto to overcome. That
leaves Johnny Cueto as the only remaining top prospect in the system, and he
has a shot to start the year in either the rotation or the bullpen as well.
Despite the emergence of their minor league talent (usually perceived as a team
throwing in the towel), the Reds will be playing for 2008. Adam Dunn, Ken
Griffey, Jr., and David Weathers are all set to become free agents after the
season (Griffey has a club option for $16.5M with a $4M buyout, which isn’t out
of the question if healthy). Right now, the Reds should try to re-sign Dunn to
an extension, which probably won’t be well received by Reds’ fans (I fail to
understand why they see Dunn as the problem rather than the solution). Once
Votto proves he can handle first base in the major leagues, the Reds should
deal Hatteberg for a bullpen arm or a prospect. If they fall out of the race,
the Reds should look to trade Dunn (if not re-signed), Griffey, and Weathers.
Houston
Astros – The Astros are similar to the Blue
Jays in my mind – in a spot between playing for now and playing for the future.
Like the Blue Jays, the Astros don’t have much coming up in the farm system,
and they have several players signed to lucrative contracts. The Astros are
stuck with playing for now, but their rotation needs a ton of work. Roy Oswalt
and Wandy Rodriguez hold the top two spots, but the rest of the rotation will
be filled out by three of Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, Chris Sampson, Felipe
Paulino, Runelvys Hernandez, and Jack Cassel. That’s not exactly a
division-winning rotation. The Astros need to bring in some help, but they don’t
have much excess talent to trade from at other positions and there aren’t many
free agent options remaining – Roger Clemens, Freddy Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Wade
Miller, and Jeff Weaver might be the best ones left. They’ll be in even more
dire straits if Tejada’s situation forces his
deportation. If you’re looking for good news, their first major free agent
departure would be after the ’09 season (Tejada and Valverde).
Milwaukee
Brewers – The recent signing of Mike Cameron
will improve the Brewers’ defense five months out of the year. After he serves
his amphetamine suspension of 25 games, the Brewers will have an upgrade of
defense in center and at third without much loss in left. Ryan Braun was
horrible at third base, but he should be athletic enough to handle left field.
For the month of April, the Brewers will be able to use Gabe Gross and Tony
Gwynn, Jr. to man center field, which should be enough to get by. Their only
troublesome spot is behind the plate, where they didn’t see that Jason Kendall’s
career should be entering the backup stage. His offensive limitations will be
hidden by the offensive capabilities of the rest of the lineup, but moves like
this are unexplainable. Looking to the future, most of the team is under team control
through 2009. Ben Sheets headlines the list of players with contracts expiring
at the end of the year. It’s been four years since he started over 30 games,
but if he’s able to go through the year without major injury, the Brewers
should try to re-sign him following the season. The other players that will be
free agents following the season are Eric Gagne, Brian Shouse, and Guillermo
Mota. None warrant an extension before they reach free agency.
Pittsburgh
Pirates – John Perrotto
wrote yesterday that while it appears that new GM Neal Huntington has been
asleep at the wheel, he has done his work behind the scenes. Looking at their
roster, it is true what Huntington says about the team underperforming last
year, but there is also not enough talent there to say they have a shot before
2010. Unfortunately, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson (pending a team
option), Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady will be free agents by then. For that
reason, they should try to trade (or re-sign) all of them. Obviously, many of
them are coming off poor seasons and need some time to re-build their trade
value. Matt Morris and Damaso Marte can be added to the trade list as well,
assuming someone is desperate enough to take Morris off their hands. I think
Huntington is on the right track in a big picture sense, but LaRoche is the
youngest of the players I mentioned at 28. All of them are in or past their
peak and should be traded before they get too far in their decline phase. If
the Pirates want to get value from their young starting pitchers – Tom Gorzelanny,
Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, and Zach Duke, they need to find some good position
player prospects quickly (preferably before 2012 when team control of the three
not named Gorzelanny will have expired).
St.
Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals had a veteran team
back in 2006 when they won the World Series, and their current roster shows it.
They lack starter-caliber middle infielders, and their starting rotation is
risky to put it nicely. On the good side, they have a superstar that only one
or two teams can match in Albert Pujols. In order to put him to good use before
his contract expires, the farm system needs to be re-built quickly. Pujols is
signed through 2011 if you assume his 2011 club option of $16M will be picked
up. For this reason, I consider the trade for Glaus an upgrade (less risk for a
non-contending team) but short of its potential. I would have rather seen them
get a few prospects for Rolen, but instead, they’re probably stuck with Glaus
for the next two years, which isn’t entirely bad if he stays healthy. Given
Glaus’s no-trade clause, I’ll only suggest Jason Isringhausen and Mark Mulder
as the players the Cardinals should look into trading, assuming that Mulder can
prove his health after offseason rotator cuff surgery. Neither should be
expected to be a part of the next Cardinals postseason roster.
I'll be back later in the week with the NL West, and then I'll post my current projected 2008 standings. I've got a couple other ideas for me to write about after that.
if tony gwynn jr gets any PT other than 5th OF'er/late inning pinch runner/defensive replacement, i'll be sick.
he's simply not very good at anything but running fast and tracking down fly balls.
mcyanks- why do the cubs jump out at you but the reds and/or brewers dont?
the brewers have a great offense, improved their defense with ONE signing and the pitching should be good (assuming sheets stays relatively healthy) enough to, at least, match the cubs rotation.
the reds have the potential to put up a ton of runs and their pitching should also be good enough to keep them in games and give the offense a chance to pull them out.
I honestly would love to see The Brewers win so they could play in the Post Season tho.
Chicago should be even better though this year, in Lous second year at the helm.
Other then Marte moving at some point this coming season, I wouldn't expect much out of the Bucs, moves wise. I was in favor of finding somebody to trade Bay becasue they couldn't be worse without him and they desperately need solid farm talent, but he was bad last year to put it nicely, so his trade value is shot. I think they will be better this year just due the subtraction of the massive hindrince that was Jim Tracy and his coaching staff. They had better hope Duke recovers his rookie form, and the hitters actually hit before August, unless its just more of the same.
Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Cards
Astros
Bucs
top 3 contenders, last 3 out if it by May
Why is Wandy Rodriguez with Roy Oswalt and not listed with the other bum Astro starting candidates. he has never proven anything except that he looks like a journeyman.
Wandy was much improved last year to where I think he is now a capable #3 starter. In 2005 and 2006, his K/BB was 1.5 and 1.6. Last season, that improved to 2.5, a huge upgrade. His improvement was evident in both his ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) as he improved from 5.53/5.30 (ERA/FIP) in 2005 and 5.64/4.91 in 2006 to 4.58/4.14 last year.
As an Astro fan the two (or is it 3) years that have passed since the World Series against the White Sox seems more like 10.
The lone bright spot last season was Hunter Pence contending for the Rookie of the Year until he got hurt. They always seem to have decent bats, but their pitching and fielding leave so much to be desired. The departure of Garner and Pupino just mean more rebuilding.
This idea that the Astros rotation needs "a ton of work" has yet to be proven, although it tends to be the concensus among the so-called experts.
Of course Roy Oswalt is their 'ace' handsdown. Wandy Rodriguez has come a very long ways and was dominant at home much of last season. He will be their #2 guy. Brandon Backe came back from Tommy John surgery and gave a strong indication last September that the Astros should be very optimistic of him for '08 and will put him in the #3 spot. The #4 and #5 starters should and will be Chris Sampson and Woody Williams if all things stay as they are now. Sampson has been inconsistent at times, but has been on his game more often than not. Sampson is ready to play a key role in the rotation. Williams had an horrendous start in '07, however he came back with a strong 2nd half and he will be intent on putting together a 'full campaign' in '08. Also contending for a rotation spot will be Felipe Paulino or perhaps Fernando Nieve. Nieve missed '07 due to injury, but should be ready to go in spring training and could win a spot with a good spring.
Of course another high profile quality starter would be appealing, but the current staff is capable. The relief corps have been at least slightly upgraded, although dumping the frequently uncapable Dave Borkowski would have been a further improvement. Ridding themselves of Jason Jennings and the stench of the deal that brought him to Houston will be a plus.
Last edited by PickledEggs on January 22nd at 3:47 PM.
Brandon Backe: 71.2 IP the last two seasons combined without striking out more than 4 per 9 IP either season
Chris Sampson: 3.77 K/9 and 5.41 FIP last year
Woody Williams: 41 years old and a 5.58 FIP because of 1.68 HR/9 last year without much of a change in his FB% (i.e. terrible fit for that park)
You can count on those three being quality starting pitchers if you want, but I'm not.
No love for the Cards? Figures. Cubs/Brewers are best team on paper but wouldn't be surprised to see either blow it. Injuries and inexperience can never be accounted for. I think there are 4 out of the 6 teams in this division that have a legitimate shot at contending. All teams minus Houston and Pittsburgh.
Cubs: It's hard to win consistently at Wrigley. Too many intangible for 81 games. The best team doesn't usually win at Wrigley Field...the weather elements of that ballpark and the wind tunnels have more to do with the outcomes of ballgames than the actual players on the field. However, their lineup is outrageous so they should win this division.
Brewers: Big time power hitters in a park made for little leaguers. They will score lots of runs. But Sheets needs to stay healthy or the top of the rotation crumbles much like the Cardinals last year. Pitching, pitching, pitching.
Cardinals: I don't think there is a team in MLB with more "ifs" than the Cardinals. It is true that this team could fall together and make a run, however, not likely so. IF Albert is healthy and mashes, IF Troy Glaus is healthy and produces, IF Chris Carpenter comes back and is effective, IF Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan start crushing the ball....so many ifs. Too many ifs.
Reds: This is it. If they are going to take this division this has to be the year. Dunn's on his way out, Griffey is too...the Central is on an upswing and if they don't contend this year they may fade away, assuming they lose pace with CHI and MIL. Arroyo is good, but they need a solid #2. Jocketty as an adviser helps.
Last edited by pujols4president on January 22nd at 4:56 PM.
I'll explain the signing of Jason Kendall to you. He can handle the young pitching staff as well as anyone in the league. He is only signed for 4.5 million which is a bargain given his leadership on a young team will be priceless. If you really think that dumping Johnny Estrada to sign Kendall is "unexplainable," then maybe you should no longer write these division reports. They make me feel stupid for reading them.
Go ahead and count out those Astros people, as you did in many a year before.
This will be the best Astro team since 86.
Watch out Central Division.......the Cubbies are the Cubbies, St Louis is torn up, Milwaukee a one year wonder, the Reds suck and the Buccos just cant put it together.
The Astros have the hitting to go ALL THE WAY!!!
While the Reds certainly have talent and could very well end up in the thick of things when September winds down, until they show that their talent translates from paper onto the field of play, I can't say that I see them finishing ahead of either the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals.
Each of those three teams do certain things better than the others, but none can, or should, be considered outright favorites to win the division.
My liking of the Cubs aside, i do think that they overall are the better team, but that could change with an injury, a carreer year or a trade.
This is how i see things as of right now.
Cubs- Of their offseason moves, the only substantial one is the addition of Fukodome. Signing Lieber adds some insurance, nothing else. Everyone knows about Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Fukodome. The players that will have to bring their A-games are Geovany Soto, Felix Pie and Ryan Theriot, the latter of which is probably the weak spot in the lineup. If Soto plays as well as he did last year and Pie's AAA numbers translate into MLB success, the Cubs will be in great shape offensively. Pitchingwise, their rotation and bullpen are both pretty strong, unless Zambrano continues his poor play and neither Wood or Marmol prove to be capable closers. But if things go as planned, i see the Cubs with a stable of solid starters and a bunch of good relievers. Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, Marquis, Lieber, Marshall and Dempster will probably dwindle down into Zambrano, Hill, Lilly, and a spring training/early season battle for the 4 an 5 spots, which will probablly end up with Dempster ba
back in the pen for middle relief.
A pen made up of Wood, Howry, Marmol, Dempster, Wuertz, Hart and hopefully Petrick should be the best in the central, if not the NL.
The Brewers are also pretty strong, but i think that that their bullpen and the back end of the rotation might not hold up. The offense needs no introduction and is maybe the most powerful in the NL. Fielder, Hall, Braun and Cameron will anchor the offense, but as good as those guys are, they can't do it alone. Personally, i dont know about either Hardy or Weeks. Hardy went crazy in the first half of last year but was dreadfyl down the stretch. Weeks was dreadful all year. Kendall is a decent catcher, but he will get run on all day long and offers nothing more than the occasional walk and a bunch of singles. He is solid, but not nearly the offensive weapon(or mental case) that Estrada was. The head of the rotation is pretty strong, with Gallardo and Sheets, but Capuano was awful last year and Bush was just all-right. Same goes for Suppan. If Sheets gets injured, which is now the rule, not the exception, the staff will suffer severely. Last comes the bullpen, which lost Linebrink and Cordero but gained Gagne. What they get from Gagne is a mystery, but even if he is good, it would be ard to match the performance of Cordero, who was lights out last year. The onus will be on Turnbow to pick up his game. The Brewers are pretty strong, but the spots where they arent strong they are very, very weak.
Lastly comes the Cardinals, who can not be counted out. The Cards are very seasoned and experienced, but not t
too talented. The loss of Rolen and Edmonds will really hurt their defense, but after Rolen's awful season, Glaus is a big upgrade offensively. Pujols will have to take his game up yet another notch to get this offense, which is the team's weakness, going. The bullpen didn't get any publicity last year, but it was excellent.
Where this team will need to be strong is in the rotation. I don't know how Carpenter will respond to yet another surgery, but i think that you can expect at least an above average season from the former ace. The pitcher that will make a name for himself this year is Adam Wainright, who in his fist year as a starter got better and better as the year went on.
All in all, I think the Cubs are the most soundly built team, but the division is pretty wide open. if the Cubs youngsters bring their A-game, i think they could take the division easily, but if they don't, and if the certain players on the Reds, Brewers or Cardinals take the next step, the division will be their's for the taking.
mcudffie, being that i watched Jason Kendall handle a) a young pitcher by the name of Rich Hill, b) the most volatile pitcher in the game of baseball, Carlos Zambrano and c) a number of young or fragile relievers, i think i can safely say that Kendall will not do much of anything in terms of handling a young pitching staff.
What Kendall offers is OBP%, thats it. He will get the Brewers some cheap doubles and will hustle game in and game out, but those are just novelties. At this point he is a slap hitter.
Negatives. He hits for Zero power, is just average defensively and is the easiest catcher to run on in the majors. When the Brewers face the Cubs, who have Soriano, Theriot, Pie, Fukodome, Lee and other speedy bench players, he will be embarassed.
With Kendall plying catcher, none of the Cubs pitchers really seemed to get any better. Also, when you say young pitching staff, do you mean Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Chris Capuano, all of which are veterans? The only legit young starter is Yovani Gallardo, and he pitched pretty well last season without Kendall behind the plate. After a month or two you, and almost all Brewers fans, will be begging to get him out of town, calling for addition by subtraction.
Birk, what do you think of the Blue Jays, who you mentioned in your Astros section? Personally, i dont think they are that far behind the Yankees. If their cogs stay healthy, they have a legit. offense and should be able to score tons of runs. Alex Rios is a star, Vernon Wells should be a star, and guys like Lyle Overbay, Frank Thomas and Aaron Hill are all overly capable players. If Adam Lind steps up his game and some of their role players improve, they could be an offensive juggernaut.
Pitchingwise, i think they are stacked. Halladay isn't as good as he once was, but he is still is a stud and Burnett was very good this past year, one in which he didn't miss all that many starts. I like their three young starters, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch. Those three could all be 2's and 3's as soon as next yera. As long as BJ Ryan returns to his old form, their pen is also in pretty good shape. Accardo was excellent last year and he and Ryan could be a lethal 1-2 punch in the mold of Okajima-Papelbon.
Point well taken. I watched Kendall play in Oakland. He was very good with our pitching staff. I was thinking more about Gallardo, Villanueva, Vargas, Parra, Turnbow, etc. when I was speaking about the brewers young staff. I am afraid dave bush and chris capuano will not be a part of the championship contending teams in Milwaukee.
Last edited by mcduffie on January 22nd at 6:45 PM.
I wrote about the Blue Jays a couple weeks ago. Some things have changed since the Rolen/Glaus trade, but I don't think the trade really has that much of an effect on their chances. Rolen is just more of a high risk/high reward player than Glaus. Also, I am firmly entrenched in the play for now side of things with them as well, but as you'll see, I was more borderline back then.
http://community.foxsports.com/blog s/birk/2008/01/08/AL_East_Moves_to_ Make
You forgot about Aaron Harang, who makes Bronson Arroyo their solid #2. Additionally, they traded for Edinson Volquez, who finally put things together last season, and Homer Bailey will return healthy as he suffered from a groin strain for quite a while last year. Obviously, there's risk involved there, but for the first time in a long time, they've actually got something that resembles a rotation.
Hi friends,
Well I'd like to think it will be the Brewers year to win the division or playoff spot, but we'll have to see about the Cubs and the rest of the division and National League as well. Should be exciting coming off the Brewers first winning season in 15 years. Go Brewers. fenfan
The REDS needed more then ONE CLUTCH hitter last year.... Phillips seemed to be their best clutch hitter... I think Joey V. and Edwin E. will come through for them this year ... IF..IF..IF given the chance to BAT in the RIGHT SPOT of the order.
Ken G. and Adam D. are not and never will be the CLUTCH HITTERS we need in the 4 spot. I would of still liked to of seen them Keep Josh H. and picked up the Pitcher from Balitmore Erik B.
BTW ... Joe Morgan would of been a better choice as Manager......................
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