Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – The AL West is the Angels’ to lose
until Vladimir Guerrero’s and John Lackey’s current contracts expire, which is
either at the end of this year or next (club options). Barring injury, Vlad and
Lackey are worth the $15M and $9M they’re owed by picking up the options, so
the Angels should extend their current reign as champions for at least two more
seasons. That doesn’t mean they should sit on their hands until spring training
starts, does it? Actually, I don’t see any holes they need to fix, and only
Garret Anderson, Juan Rivera, Jon Garland, Francisco Rodriguez, and Darren
Oliver are free agents after the year. They could try to sign Garland and
Rodriguez to extensions, but Garland is replaceable and Rodriguez’s mechanics
are awful in terms of injury risk. Without Garland, the Angels would still have
Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Nick
Adenhart, and Dustin Moseley to fill out the 2009 rotation. I don’t think they’d
be hurting with 5 of those guys filling out a rotation.
Oakland Athletics – After the Dan Haren trade, Billy Beane was
quoted as saying, “You have a chance to do something special or you have a
chance to create something special, but to be in between is not a place we
wanted to be.” I couldn’t agree more. The Athletics weren’t going to be able to
compete with the Angels unless everyone stayed healthy, and the chances of that
happening were pretty close to zero. I’m not as big a fan of the Nick Swisher
trade, but that’s because he’s signed for relatively cheap through 2011 with a
cheap club option for 2012. They’ve restocked the farm system well, so who gets
traded next? It’s rumored to be Joe Blanton. I’m skeptical to the fact that
they need to trade Blanton (he’s not a free agent until the 2010-2011
offseason), but if the Reds’ rumor of Homer Bailey and another prospect for
Blanton is true, I’d do it. The next to go would probably be Eric Chavez, Alan
Embree, or Justin Duchscherer. If Bobby Crosby or Rich Harden could ever stay
healthy, they shouldn’t be far behind. It’s rebuilding mode; it’s not fun for
the fans, but it’s the right thing to do.
Seattle Mariners – Like the Toronto Blue Jays, the Mariners are in
a spot where you’d like them to play for the future, but the current state of
the roster forces them to go for it now. Kenji Johjima, Richie Sexson, and Raul
Ibanez are free agents after the season. I’ve got two suggestions for the
Mariners right now. First, bench Jose Vidro in favor of Wladimir Balentien at
DH. Vidro had a .775 OPS last year, which doesn’t cut it for a DH. Plus, that’s
with a high BABIP of .342, which should probably approach his line drive rate
expected BABIP of .315 next year. Trading for him and making him DH last year
wasn’t a good idea, and it’s still not a good idea to make him a DH. Meanwhile,
Balentien had an .868 OPS at AAA last year. Second, start Jeff Clement at AAA
coming out of spring training. If he continues to mash and improve his defense,
trade Johjima to help the club in some other area – 5th starter,
bullpen help, second baseman… Although you’re playing for now, that doesn’t
mean you have to avoid starting the prospects not named Adam Jones.
Texas Rangers – The Rangers cleared house last year by trading Eric
Gagne and Mark Teixeira. In return, they got a few high-upside but extremely
young prospects, who won’t be ready for at least a few years. During the
offseason, they were able to get a couple of actual outfielders in Milton
Bradley and Josh Hamilton, which is a plus. Since Michael Young has no-trade
protection, Kevin Millwood is the only real commodity they could try to trade.
Millwood has a limited no-trade clause, but everyone needs starting pitching,
right?
I’ve forgotten to do this the
last two times, but I’d like to thank Cot’s Baseball Contracts for his
outstanding information regarding player contracts.
good write up. im not sure about vidro though. he isnt a power DH. i think that throws people off because they expect a dh to hit with power. the guy batting ave is almost always .300+. and he bats in the 2 hole. you cant expect him to pull typical DH numbers when you bat 2nd. think about it. you have one guy in front of you when you start the game. and when the game gets going you have the bottom of the line up in front of you. i think he fits for this and balentine is to talented to be doing an old mans job.
I plan on writing up the NL East on Thursday, the NL Central over the weekend, and the NL West early next week. At the end, I'll do a little recap with my early predictions. At work the other day, I had an idea for what to write about next, but I can't seem to remember it right now.
As for Vidro, he hit .314/.381/.394 compared to the average AL DH line of .268/.355/.447. So he got on base a little more than average, but his SLG was the worst among full-time DHs. The next two lowest SLG were Kevin Millar and Travis Hafner at .420 and .451. When you don't play any defense, you should be a great offensive player. Jose Vidro hasn't fit that mold since 2003.
Birk I agree with you, if Seattle gets Bedard they will be a force in the AL west. Vlad is still frightening but getting old, he's been lucky as far as the injury bug is concerned. But if Sexson doesn't have a better year they are in trouble. Nice read!
go mariners!
mtmarinerfan
Last edited by montanadan on January 16th at 9:08 AM.
Birk i think that you are a god dang ####. How could you put the MARINERS in the blue jays category? We will be strong contenders this year in the west and dont bet otherwise. On your Vidro comment how could any team bench a player that gets on as much as he does. He batted .314(second on the team), led the team in walks, and was a close second on the team in OBP to only the great Ichiro. Balentiene an Clement will get their chance, but this year isnt the time, because once Bedard gets over here get ready to see Seattle in October!!!!!!!!
mikeyirish, I'd like to hear your case about how the Mariners are undeniably better than the Blue Jays.
As for Vidro, he had a .775 OPS, which was among the worst at his position. Bill James 2008 Projections have him at a .785 OPS, CHONE has him at a .733 OPS, and Marcel has him at a .747 OPS. In my opinion, CHONE and Marcel are more representative of what to expect for a 33 year old DH with a fluky high Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). Again, his BABIP last year was .342, and his expected BABIP based on his line drive rate was .315. All signs point to a player that will decline in 2008. Put this on top of the fact that he was one of the worst full-time DHs last season, and it's easy to see why I discount his usefulness as a full-time DH.
All projections came from his FanGraphs page: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp x?playerid=802&position=DH
Birk tell me how many Mariners games you watched or listened to last year because im sure i know a hell of a lot more about them considering I never miss a game.
Back on the Vidro subject you say that his .314 batting average last year was a fluk which is complete bs. He has a lifetime average of .302. And once again with the OPS you are completely wrong seeing as how he has a lifetime .816 OPS. You have no room to tell anybody that Vidro is the worst DH in the league because that is a complete misfact. Vidro and Papi were the only two full time DH's to bat .300+ last year. Frank Thomas was third with a .277 BA. you are saying he was the worst because he doesnt hit the long ball like most DH's do, but that is not what the Mariners got him for. He has the same job most two hole hitters do except his is harder with the fact that he has to sacrifice himself in order to get Ichiro over oh so often.
Last year they had a better shot and this year they will have a better shot than the Jays to make the postseason. Last season they were a considerably better team than the jays. The M's were playoff bound in 2007 until they hit that slide in the latter part of August and most of September due to their lack of experience and immaturity. Toronto never had a legit shot a playing in October. They finished five games back of the M's. Seattle is in a division where there is only one other contender, which means if they dont win the division then they can win the wild card. Toronto does not have this luxury seeing as how they are in the same division as both the Bronx and Beantown. Th
mikeyirish, I'm going to respond by putting up a posting about last year's DH numbers. It might be a day or two before I get to it.
As for the Mariners and Blue Jays, I'll agree that the Mariners have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Blue Jays, but I still think the Blue Jays were and still are the better team. The Mariners couldn't even outscore their opponents last year. If you take a look at the Adjusted Standings Report available at BP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ statistics/standings.php), it actually wasn't even that close in 2007. Once you make the opponent adjustments, the Blue Jays were 9 wins better than the Mariners last year (87 to 78).
Birk its simple. The Mariners arent scared of the yanks or boston. We have had a winning record against the two combined for the past two years. When was the last time the Blue Jays did that?
This is baseball. Let's have some fun.
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