Birk's Blog
by: birk
Fantasy Replacement Players
Feb 20, 2007 | 7:21PM | report this

I recently used projected stats to find a baseline of replacement level for each position. Everything is set up for the standard 5x5 with 1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 3 OF, and 1 U. In order to determine the replacement level at each position, I averaged the 12 "starters" and the top 12 "backups" to find an approximation of a replacement player. While this is far from perfect, it is a good start. In order to incorporate utility players, I increased the number of 1B starters to 15, 3B starters to 13, and OF starters to 41 (from 36). I also used 3 DH: Travis Hafner, Frank Thomas, and Jim Thome. For calculating replacement level for DH, I used 1B, 3B, and OF to get a rough estimate. It ends up penalizing the DH for having no speed, but they deserve a penalty for position inflexibility so it evens out. Below you will find the replacement levels I found:

Position               R   HR   RBI   SB    AVG
Catcher              57    14    60      2    0.278
First Base         77    23    80      2     0.283
Second Base   83    15    65    15    0.281
Third Base        83    23    82      7    0.280
Shortstop          82    15    67    15    0.283
Outfielder          80    19    72    11    0.283
DH                     80     21    76     8     0.282

As expected, catcher comes out much lower than the other positions, 1B and 3B are big-time power positions, 2B and SS revolve around runs and stolen bases, OF is a 5 category position, and DHs better be good to warrant locking up your utility spot. It turns out that batting average is pretty much the same across all positions. Other than catchers, the same can be said for runs. The playing time hit for catchers really holds them back. I hope this might help others preparing for their fantasy baseball leagues (as long as you're not in mine), and I welcome all questions/comments/suggestions that might lead me to improving the baselines.

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birk
This is baseball. Let's have some fun. Recommended Websites: MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fan Graphs, Football Outsiders
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