This past Wednesday, Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle and Joey Votto hit three home runs. On SportsCenter’s Top Plays, Votto’s performance ranked 10th while Gomez’s performance ranked 4th. That got me thinking. How do they rank their top plays? Obviously, Gomez’s feat was rarer, but hitting three home runs is more valuable than hitting for the cycle.

What about when you put it in the context of their games? Votto’s first home run came in a scoreless game to lead off the bottom of the second. He led off the third with a walk and stole second, but the score was already 5-0. After Brandon Phillips led off the fifth with a homer to make it 6-0, Votto hit his second home run. Then in the sixth with two outs and Phillips on first, Votto hit his third to make it 9-0. He would later ground out to short to lead off the eighth. Since the first home run came in a scoreless game, it obviously impacted the game. In his next plate appearance, the score was already 5-0, so his performance from that point on had little impact on the outcome of the game.

In Gomez’s case, he homered to lead off the game. He struck out for the second out in the third inning of a 1-0 game. He next came to the plate with two outs and a runner on second in the fifth, and subsequently drove in the second run of the game. In the next inning, Gomez would again come to the plate with a runner on second and two outs. He responded with an RBI double to center to make it 7-0. He would later single to lead off the ninth to complete the cycle. His last two ABs came with six- and seven-run leads, but his home run and triple greatly impacted the game.

By placing their performances in the context of their games, it can be seen that Carlos Gomez had a much greater impact on the Twins’ victory than Joey Votto had on the Reds’ victory. Based on this, I decided that I’d start to post the top ten most important plays of the week. I chose the top ten plays using Win Probability Added, which is the change in win expectancy during the play. Without further ado:

1. Mike Lamb 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
2. Rickie Weeks 2-R Walk-off 1B in the 9th
3. David Dellucci 3-R HR in the 8th
4. Chris Iannetta 2-R 3B in the 8th
5. Carlos Lee 2-R 2B in the 8th (2:30 into video)
6. Mark Ellis Walk-off HR in the 10th
7. Pablo Ozuna Bases Loaded Game-Ending GIDP in the 9th
8. Steve Holm 2-R HR in the 7th (first career HR)
9. Carl Crawford 3-R HR in the 6th
10. Ryan Ludwick 2-R 1B in the 9th

A couple of things to note:

1. All but the DP came with two outs in the inning.
2. Only a couple of the top ten plays occurred prior to the 8th inning.

Thanks to Fan Graphs for the WPA stats and thanks to MLB.com for the links to the videos.

With the month of April coming to a close, we will be down to 5 months of regular season baseball. This is also a time of the year where a lot of people are starting to completely buy into player’s statistics, so in that vein, I’m going to take a look at starting pitchers to see who should be targeted in fantasy baseball leagues and who should be shopped.

Methodology

I’m only looking at pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title at this point, using the data available at FanGraphs. For the target list, I’m going to list all pitchers with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of less than 4 and a better FIP than ERA. For the shop list, I’m going to list all pitchers with an ERA of less than 3 and a worse FIP than ERA. The idea is that a pitcher’s ERA will more than likely move back towards his FIP as the season progresses.

Pitchers to Target

I'm sorry about the width of this table. I followed the same procedure as the one below, but for some reason, this one's width won't reduce to the proper size. If you scroll over to the last column of the table, you’ll see just how much each pitcher has underperformed his underlying peripherals. From the rest of the guys in the table, Javier Vazquez and Ian Snell stand out.

Coming off a 15-win season with a 3.74 ERA, Vazquez had problems in his first and fifth starts. In his first start, he only went 5 innings, giving up 4 ER with 6 K. In his last start, he went 5.1 innings, giving up 6 ER with 3 K. The two bad games came against the Yankees and Indians. In between his bad outings, he threw 20.1 innings with a 2.21 ERA, 3 wins, and 21 strikeouts. However, he’s not going to have a 2.32 ERA the rest of the way either. For a guy that has averaged 26 HR allowed in Chicago, Vazquez has yet to give up a HR in 2008. That’s not going to continue, and although he should continue to rack up the strikeouts, his ERA probably won’t fall much lower than its current level, so I wouldn’t consider him a must-target pitcher.

Similarly, Snell has also not been giving up the home runs so far this year. Snell gave up one to Brian McCann on Opening Day but hasn’t since. He doesn’t have any bad outings like Vazquez, but he also only has one good outing. On April 6, Snell struck out 10 Marlins while only giving up 1 ER over 6 innings. Also similar to Vazquez, I wouldn’t call Snell a must-target pitcher. He will probably lower his ERA a little bit, but he’ll pretty much stay on his current pace.

Instead of looking to acquire one of the big-name pitchers from the list, I’d look to pick up some of these guys as free agents (if possible). Depending on your league setup, Nick Blackburn, BLEEP Bonser, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Sanchez, and Jair Jurrjens might be available, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Pitchers to Shop

After failing to find any quality pitchers to target, let’s see if there are any pitchers you should be looking to trade away while their value is at its peak.

This list is considerably longer, but it also includes guys I’d be much more willing to make a move on than the previous list. Several of these guys are the type you’ll want to hold onto unless you are offered more than full value for (such as Peavy, Webb, etc.), so I’ll just pick out a few guys that I think should be offered to the gullible owner in your league.

Scott Olsen has only given up one run in his last three starts while going 7+ innings each time. After a closer look, you start to wonder how it’s being done. In the first game of the streak, he struck out three Braves, gave up 5 hits, and walked no one. In the second game, he struck out three Nationals, gave up 3 hits, including a HR to Hanley Ramirez, and walked 2. In his last outing, he struck out zero, gave up 4 hits, and walked 5. It is a rare outing where you walk 5 guys and give up no runs. In those three outings, he walked one more than he struck out (6). That’s not a good sign for the future, and now is a good time to cash out.

Like Olsen, Shawn Chacon has walked as many guys as he’s struck out this season. He is also coming off an outing where he got lucky. In 7 innings against the Cardinals, Chacon struck out 3, walked 6, and allowed 5 hits. That amounted to 2 runs, 1 earned. In addition to his inability to keep guys off the bases via the walk, Chacon has a lengthy track record of not being that good. If you can get somebody to buy high on Chacon, give yourself a pat on the back.

Unlike Olsen and Chacon, Carlos Silva has never been one to walk too many guys in a season. In his best season, he walked 9 guys in 188.1 IP. However, he has also never struck out more than 89 guys in one season. When you rely on your defense as much as Silva does, it’s hard to post a sub-4.00 ERA. For that reason, you can expect Silva’s ERA to jump up as the season progresses. When you combine that with the fact that Silva won’t be helping you in the K category anytime soon, you’ll want to look to put this guy on someone else’s roster before reality sets in.

If you drafted Cliff Lee, congratulations, you’ve gotten a four-game start to the season that is far beyond any reasonable expectations for any starting pitcher (Johan Santana included). The good news is that his peripherals are outstanding (29:2 K/BB ratio), but there’s nothing in his track record that suggests he’ll end up with a sub-3.50 ERA. Lee’s season statistics will definitely command interest on the trade market, and although you won’t get full value for those statistics, you should get considerably more in trade than you can expect from Lee the rest of the way.

Ryan Dempster returned to the starting rotation for the first time in 5 years, and although he could pitch as well as Braden Looper did last year, I wouldn’t expect it. In his last two years as a starter (2002 and 2003), Dempster had ERAs of 5.38 and 6.54. Over the last two years, he racked up 52 saves, but also blew 12 (81% save rate) while posting a 4.76 ERA. Dempster could put a good season as a starter, but I don’t think it will happen and neither should you. Convince someone that he’s back to his Marlin ways and get what you can.

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I hope you guys enjoyed this look at pitchers to target and pitchers to shop article. Over the next few months, I’ll probably post once a week, but I’m a little short on ideas. Last year, when I was writing the “Another One Bites the Dust” series, I planned to do that again this year with one per week, which would mean it would start next weekend. I have several reasons why I shouldn’t, but I’d like to hear what you think. If you have any thoughts on what you’d like me to write, put it in the comments and I’ll do my best to oblige. I don’t say this enough, but I truly appreciate all the feedback you give me.

First, I’d like to point out Ken Pomeroy’s Bracket Breakdowns at the start of the NCAA tournament. Using his Pomeroy Ratings and log5 computations, he posted the chances of each team getting to each round. So why am I bringing this up now? If you had simply used those odds to make your picks, you would have ended up with the top score in Yahoo’s Tournament Pick’em.

Originally, I was going to say that I was going to be putting this blog on the backburner while I go through a career transition, but I’m going to try my best to keep this going. I’m not going to promise anything regularly getting posted, but we’ll see how it goes. I still have the Balancing the Market series to finish. While I plan on completing that series, it takes quite a bit of work for me to assemble the information in one place so don’t be surprised if it doesn’t get finished for a while.

For today, I just want to tie up some loose ends. A while back, I had promised that I would post my projected standings before the season. While it’s obviously not before the season anymore, I will post my picks I made in BP’s Predictatron. In making these picks, I leaned on the PECOTA projections, which you can get a fairly close look at here (although those are updated every day by taking games completed into account). In adjusting away from those projections, I used a combination of things: how I disagree with PECOTA about certain teams, expectations of teams to improve via trade, and expectations of teams to dump FA-bound players at the deadline.

AL East

1.       New York Yankees (94-68) – a lot of risk in the pitching staff, but they’ve got the arms and front office ability to get the job done

2.       Boston Red Sox (91-71) – same as above, but less likely to make a big deal at the deadline

3.       Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) – maturation at the plate and among the pitching prospects, and improved defense over last year

4.       Toronto Blue Jays (78-84) – lack big-time star to put them over the top, but they do have plenty of big-time injury risks

5.       Baltimore Orioles (67-95) – doing the right thing by getting younger and their 2008 team will get worse if Brian Roberts finally leaves town

AL Central

1.       Cleveland Indians (93-69) – I think I made a mistake here as the 2007 IP increases for C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona could hurt their 2008 chances

2.       Detroit Tigers (90-72) – if C.C. and Carmona falter, the Tigers will end up on top of the division

3.       Chicago White Sox (78-84) – several players on the wrong side of 30 could offset the acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher

4.       Kansas City Royals (76-86) – the Royals are starting to turn things around, and they might get out of the basement again in 2008

5.       Minnesota Twins (71-91) – after losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, the Twins will be lucky to stay out of the basement, which makes the Joe Nathan extension a bit of a head-scratcher

AL West

1.       Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (86-76) – the Angels have been hit hard with injuries, but they’re lucky they don’t have much competition here

2.       Oakland Athletics (80-82) – the A’s weren’t as bad as their record in 2007, and they just might regret trading away Haren and Swisher as the season progresses

3.       Seattle Mariners (76-86) – unlike the A’s, the Mariners weren’t as good as their record in 2007; they couldn’t even outscore their opponents, and it’s not like they have youth on their side (lineup’s average age is 31)

4.       Texas Rangers (74-88) – after last year’s trades of Mark Teixeira, Eric Gagne, and Kenny Lofton, the Rangers went completely into rebuild mode, and they’ll be there for a couple more years

NL East

1.       New York Mets (91-71) – after acquiring Johan Santana, how can you not pick the Mets here?

2.       Atlanta Braves (86-76) – very good lineup and SP depth

3.       Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) – very good lineup and no pitching depth

4.       Florida Marlins (75-87) – without Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, I guess Marlins fans will have to celebrate that they still have Hanley Ramirez

5.       Washington Nationals (74-88) – new park, but they still don’t have their farm system completely rebuilt; at least they’re getting closer

NL Central

1.       Chicago Cubs (91-71) – I’d be more confident here if they could fix their lineup (hint: OBP guys go at the top)

2.       Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) – could take the division once they figure out that Jason Kendall is no longer a starting catcher; yes, he’s done well, but he has a .375 BABIP with only a 14.6% line drive rate (expected BABIP of .266)

3.       Cincinnati Reds (82-80) – despite Corey Patterson’s hot start (5 doubles and 4 home runs), he still has the lowest OBP in the lineup and is still batting leadoff

4.       St. Louis Cardinals (77-85) – Albert Pujols and the gang won’t keep up this 111-win pace

5.       Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91) – new management was still sorting things out this offseason; if several of their players restore some of their trade value early, don’t be surprised if they end the season in different uniforms midseason

6.       Houston Astros (70-92) – if you ignore pitching staffs, the Astros might be contenders

NL West

1.       Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) – although they were outscored last year, nearly all Diamondbacks players are on the upswing portion of their careers; they’ll outscore their opponents this year

2.       Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76) – plenty of top young talent; if they learn to bench Juan Pierre, the Dodgers have the talent to win the division

3.       Colorado Rockies (81-81) – my expectations from Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales aren’t too high, and they don’t have the depth behind them

4.       San Diego Padres (76-86) – I’m probably expecting too little from the Padres (I always do), but their outfield is a mess as they don’t really have a capable CF as Jim Edmonds doesn’t really qualify anymore

5.       San Francisco (68-94) – Q:  How long until the Bay Area writers start to wish Barry Bonds was still around? A: It won’t happen; they’re too stubborn to admit it.

For those curious, my mortal lock picks are the Red Sox and Giants. The Red Sox are possibly the best run organization in baseball, so I’m confident they can finish around 91 wins. The Giants have Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and nothing else, so I’m pretty confident they’ll end up around 68 wins. My only worry is that they’ll end up with a lot less.

My World Series pick is the Boston Red Sox crushing Cubs’ fans spirits.

Tonight, I was watching the Rays and Yankees on ESPN2, and the subject of Rocco Baldelli came up. Steve Phillips and Orel Hershiser were talking about something they don’t really know about – mitochondrial disease. Now, I don’t know much about the disease, but I don’t believe what they were saying. Phillips and Hershiser were talking about the amount of time that Baldelli has missed and how mitochondrial disease possibly played a role. Hershiser claimed that the disease made him so fatigued at times that Baldelli felt he was injured, implying that he wasn’t actually injured. Let’s see here – torn ACL, torn UCL (Tommy John surgery), recurrent hamstring problems. Those sound like real injuries to me. From what I understand, Baldelli becomes more fatigued due to the disease. When athletes get fatigued, their mechanics start to fail, whether they be throwing, hitting, or running. When you start to go away from your normal mechanics, your body is taxed differently than it normally is, and that results in injuries. If they wanted to tie his disease in with his injuries, that’s the route to take, not the seemingly “fake” injuries route.

They also gave their opinions on the Joba Chamberlain plan. They proclaimed that they don’t think the Yankees have the bullpen depth to move Chamberlain out of the 8th-inning role. They also covered the risks in their rotation, but I feel they left out one major component. Tom Verducci and Will Carroll have both mentioned a rule involved with young pitchers – an increase of over 30 innings from one year to the next results in heightened risk (injury and/or loss of effectiveness) the following year. That means that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy can’t be in the rotation all season, and that’s probably a major reason why the Yankees are planning on moving Joba to the rotation.

Getting off my soapbox, I’d like to talk about the Chris Young extension. It’s rumored that the deal is about the same as the deal Troy Tulowitzki ($31M over 6 years) got in January. Just over a month ago, I mentioned Young as a guy that would be worth signing to an extension after a good 2008 season, but it seems that Arizona is more confident in Young’s ability. This type of extension is one that is great for both sides. Young gets the guaranteed millions every young player dreams of, and Arizona gets cost certainty through 2013. Congratulations to both Chris Young and Diamondbacks’ fans.

One type of article that I always find comical/worthless is those that start with “If the season ended today…,” so…

If the season ended today, the Orioles, Rays, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, and Padres would be in the playoffs with the winner of a 1-game playoff between the White Sox and Royals joining them. Out of those eight teams, only the Angels and Brewers were considered strong playoff contenders just a week ago. So what’s my point? Discard most of what you’ve seen so far this baseball season. 96% of the season has yet to be played. Unless your favorite team is the Pirates, Astros, or Giants, don’t give up yet. If your favorite team is the Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Marlins, or Nationals, enjoy being near the top of the standings, but it’s probably not going to last long. If you drafted Matt Holliday or Alfonso Soriano, don’t worry because they’ll turn it around before long. If you drafted Cliff Floyd or David Murphy, first, why’d you do that and second, congratulations, everything’s downhill from here. When evaluating your team right now, remember that the last few years tell you more than the first week of 2008.

On to the other topic I wanted to talk about, I selected a fantasy team this morning, and I must tell you that my team’s not very good (Warning: not for the squeamish):

C Jason Kendall
1B Jose Vidro
2B Kazuo Matsui
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett
LF Emil Brown
CF Carlos Gomez
RF Darin Erstad
P Livan Hernandez
P Kyle Kendrick

With that lineup, I’m hoping to score 580 runs, which might compete with the Giants, but my two pitchers are nothing compared to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

All kidding aside, the above team is my 2008 HACKING MASS entry. In HACKING MASS, the goal is to select players that will be bad but will remain in their team’s lineup/rotation. My 2007 team finished 20th out of 1322 entries, but due to 6 of those players no longer being in everyday lineups or rotations, none of my 2008 picks were on my 2007 team.

Looking at my team, it may look like I’m picking on the Astros (2 current and 2 former) and Twins (4 current), but it wasn’t intentional. Other than that, I see two picks that might be controversial: Darin Erstad and Kyle Kendrick. For Erstad, it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get enough plate appearances to do well in this contest, but I’ve got a feeling that his “baseball guy” reputation will get him the necessary playing time. On the other hand, Kendrick is coming off a 10-4 2007 season with a 3.87 ERA. What stands out for me is the fact that he only struck out 49 batters in 121 innings, a measly 3.64 K/9. Among pitchers with 100+ IP, only Steve Trachsel, Aaron Cook, Mike Bacsik, and Zach Duke had lower strikeout rates. Other pitchers below 4 K/9 are Brad Thompson, Chris Sampson, Mike Maroth, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva. Other than Cook and Hernandez, that’s a collection of back-of-the-rotation starters, and it’s arguable that Livan should be a back-of-the-rotation starter as well. Why did I pick Hernandez and Kendrick out of this group? Although none are expected to be very good, Hernandez and Kendrick are the most likely to stay in the majors all season.