Winter meetings have officially come and gone and unfortunately there wasn’t a whole lot of action. The big winner with out a doubt is the motor city kitties. Out of nowhere they came in and pulled off a deal for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis that surprised everyone. Other then that, the only real significant move was the Los Angeles Dodgers over paying for the services of center fielder Andruw Jones.
Andruw is a good player, but lets face it, he’s not as good as advertised. He’s winning gold gloves off of name recognition and has been deemed “uncoachable” by a organization that is renowned for its coaching abilities. Every year he comes into camp a little heftier and a little cockier. His batting average is on a steady decline and that’s no good when your best year is hitting .303 and you own a .261 career average. One would have to assume that even though he is still relatively young, much like Johnny Damon, his years of wall slamming and full extension dives are finally catching up with him. Unlike Damon, Andruw will not be able to be used as a DH to alleviate some of that wear and tear of a long season.
To me the big story should be the move that didn’t happen. And no, I’m not talking about Johan Santana. It’s the other team with Los Angeles in its name that leaves me scratching my head. This is a team that always has solid starting pitching and a fantastic bullpen, but never has enough thump to get back to the World Series.
I love the brand of baseball they play, and think that Mike Scioscia is the best manger in the game. He’s the most aggressive manager out there, and he’s not afraid to put the pressure on his opponent all the time. It’s a style that works well given the personnel he has but it can only carry them so far.
The AL West should be the Angels division to loose over the next 2 or 3 years. They have enough starting pitching to get the job done. Jon Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are great and often overlooked anchors at the top of the rotation. Add the services of Jon Garland a former 18 game winner who has proved he can eat up 200 innings of your season, mix in a little Jarod Weaver, add a pinch of an emerging Joe Saunders, and you’ve got a recipe for success.
The problem they have when they get to the playoffs is the lack of real power threats. Once you get passed Vladimir Guerrero and Garret Anderson, if any one hits one out of the park it comes as a surprise. Torii Hunter is a nice player, but he doesn’t really scare enough pitchers to stop them from pitching around Vlad. And it’s not as if there is a whole lot of power in front of them. Now factor in this year they will be without the services of Orlando Cabrera.
This is a team that last year hit a total of 129 homers narrowly beating out the Twins and the Royals, and tying the Nationals for 28th in the Majors. Once they get into the playoffs, they don’t match up real well with the lineups that the Indians, Yankees, Red Sox and the Tigers will put out on the field.
They had all the pieces to satisfy the Marlins needs to bring Miguel Cabrera aboard. For the better part of 3 weeks they were perceived to be the favorites to land him, but were unwilling to part with prospects to acquire the best available young bat in the game. Cabrera is certainly young enough that after you trade a few prospects, you could shift gears and build your franchise around him.
But it’s to late now. The Tigers have completed the deal and I don’t think they’ll be willing to trade him anytime soon. GM Dave Dombrowski did the right thing. He wasn’t afraid to part with his prospects in order to obtain a proven player who looks to be Cooperstown bound. Now the entire American League is faced with the unfortunate task of dealing with it.
To the Angles front office I say this. I don’t know what your next move is. But I have a good idea what it should have been.
And just like that it appears the Red Sox brass is at it again. A full sunrise and sunset after GM Theo Epstein predicts a quiet off season, and all of the sudden the Sox are the leading candidates to acquire the services of the best pitcher in baseball.
Agreed, it's quite a package, but it's the price you pay if you want to make a deal like that. Hey, I love those prospects, but they are just that, prospects. I'll take a proven commodity over a hope any day! If I wanted to watch prospects, I wouldn’t have purchased MLB's extra innings package to watch the Sox. I could've watched the Pirates games for free.
But given the big trade that the Twins pulled off with the Ray's yesterday, the landscape of the deal has been entirely transformed. Now it appears the Sox could pull this off by including 2 major league players (Coco Crisp and Jon Lester) as well as 2 prospects (Jed Lowrie and either Justin Masterson or Michael Bowden). It gets a little more complicated, as most things do, when you break down the financial aspects of the deal as well.
For Minnesota, they receive a quality starting pitcher who many organizations have tried to pry away for so many years (Lester), who they can slot right into the starters role to help fill the void of Santana. They get a tremendous defensive centerfielder at a bargain price in today’s free agent market (Crisp), who's more then capable to cover the carpet departed fan favorite Torii Hunter has left behind.
Now that they've traded short stop Jason Bartlett for Brendan Harris, they would be able to insert Lowry at the short stop position, and move Harris to second base. The position most scouts think he is more suited for. Bowden or Masterson could conceivably be in the bullpen, or spend another season in the minors and be major league ready by next year. Best of all for the Twins, they dump salary so they can focus on resigning Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer and they would still be able to move into that new stadium in 2010, with a contending team.
The Sox side is a little more difficult. Yes they would be getting an ace of diamonds to go along with their ace of ####s Josh Beckett. But, they're going to have to pay the man. Santana is reportedly looking for a 5 or 6-year deal worth in the vicinity of $150 million. A couple of problems exist, the biggest one would be only having a 72-hour window to negotiate an extension. If they failed to do it, Santana would be staying with the Twins for another two weeks before the Yankees came in and made the deal happen. 2004. A-rod. Ring a bell anyone?
Sure the Red Sox have the money but 20-25 million is a lot to invest in a player who can only help you once every 5 days. Injury is always a concern, but consider this. In the past 4 seasons Santana has pitched at least 5 innings in every start except one. The one he didn't was only shortened due to a rain delay 4 2/3 innings in.
He will be turning 29 at the beginning of the season thus entering his prime years. A time when good pitchers become great, and great pitchers become legends.
As I said before, the money is there. Consider he's only due $13.5 million this season, if Crisp goes, essentially your only paying him around $9 million. That my friend's, is a bargain. You won't even find a deal like that at your local flea market. 220 innings, 230 strikeouts, an ERA around 3.00 and 20 wins.
Next year the money could be there as well. Schilling's $13 million comes off the books, as well as Crisps $5 million. Cut your ties with veteran knukleballer Tim Wakefield ($4 million) and I believe you've found your first $20 million right there. And this is assuming that they pick up the $20 million option on Manny Ramirez. We are yet to hear what the deal is regarding that situation.
If the proposed trade goes down, he is even more affordable to the Red Sox because of the young talent they have, at a very low price. The likes of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Manny Delcarmen, Kevin Youkilis, Clay Bucholz, and Jonathan Papelbon will all be under their control for the next 3-5 years. Hell, Josh Beckett's only do $30 million the next 3 years and they've got Dice-K for 5 more years at $48 million.
It looks good right now. The deal is there. The money is there. The will is there. The only problem is so are the Yankees. If they don't act quickly, New York will most likely try to sweeten their offer. Theo, don't think twice. If they accept this proposed trade as is, you need to make it happen.
David Ortiz, Randy Moss, Kevin Garnett, and Johan Santana? 4 players who have all spent time in the Twin City might all find themselves in the same city once again. 3 are here now, could there be a supernatural pitcher joining them? Picture a rotation where Josh Beckett and Johan Santana are followed by (at least for one season) Dice-K Matsuzaka, and Curt Schilling. Is the best Rotation in baseball about to get better?
Maybe, but it's a tricky situation. Last season I asked this question to friends of mine. "Would you trade Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Bucholz, and Jon Lester for Johan Santana and Joe Nathan? And, do you think they would take it?" The reaction was mixed as it should be, but the majority was on the yay over nay side. It would work out well for both sides. Minnesota would get a tremendous young center fielder to replace Torii Hunter, and 2 top notch young pitchers to pair with Francisco Liriano (who will hopefully be healthy). Boston would receive one of the games most dominating pitchers over the past 4 years, to pair with a pitcher who looks ready to dominate for the next 4 years at the top of the rotation. As well as another great arm to put in the back end of the bullpen to assist Jonathan Paplebon (something that's hard to find on the current free agent market) and take some of the burden off of Hideki Okajima. Imagine that!
It sounds great but it's a little complicated and I don't really know where to begin. So how about here. Santana is a free agent after the following season and has already told the Twins he would like a contract similar to Barry Zito's (7 years, $126 million). The Red Sox could certainly afford it seeing how this is the last year for Curt Schilling whose potential $13 million contract will be coming off the books next season. Couple that with Joe Nathan probably walking as he would most likely rather find a job as a closer then a set-up man ($6 million in his option year, sure to increase significantly) and possibly cutting ties with veteran Tim Wakefield ($4 million). There's $23 million right there.
But hold on, there's more. What is the status with Manny Ramirez? This is the final year of his contract if the Sox choose not to pick up his $20 million options through the 2011 season. Will they be able to not pick up those options but sign him to another contract of significantly less total dollar volume? I hope so, but nothing has been said about their plans on that. The money is clearly there, so what's the problem?
There's a couple of things here, and the first is a matter of pride. Theo Epstein is very proud of the young talent his organization has collected and therefore might not be willing to deal it. This plays into an economics factor as well. The 3 players mentioned have very bright upsides, are very affordable, and will be for years to come. Not only can they help the Sox win and win now, but they keep payroll down and profit up. How many times have we heard it? It's a business. The goal of any business is to make money. It's nice to win and have a product people enjoy, but there's a lot of owners out there who would rather pocket the cash then put out a winning team.
Speaking of pride, there's a guy who has some in the top of the rotation right now. Although there is no doubt in my mind that Santana and Beckett would push each other to one-up the other's performance, but it might cause some damage to give Santana a big contract when it comes time to negotiate Becketts next one. Last year the Red Sox signed Beckett to a 4 year extension worth $40 million. Sure Johan has a couple of Cy Young awards, but Becketts got the jewelery and an amazing post season record/ERA. Jealousy and greed are powerful emotions, and often get the better of people, especially athletes because there's so much money as well as pride on the line. Just look what jealousy did to Barry Bonds. It would be a shame to see it be strong enough to wreck the clubs future which as of now looks extremely promising.
But let's talk about what every Sox fan wants to talk about, defeating the Yankees. By making this deal happen you keep him away from New York and ensure that if he does go there, it's after his "prime" years. If the Twins do not trade or sign him to an extension, then the Yankees will do what they do best and outbid everyone for the player they want. That's not disrespect Yankee fans, it's the truth and it's fine. I've said countless times that I respect the Yankees ownership because they always try their best to put a winning team on the field no matter what the cost is. They would also most certainly love to open a new year in a new stadium, with a new ace.
If the Red Sox do pull this deal off they would have to make sure it was a sign and trade deal. They can not give up those kinds of players for a one year rental. Maybe if they were trying to win one World Series in the last 86 years, but not if they are truly dedicated to contending every season to come.
Now that Torii Hunter is California dreaming, the 2 time Cy Young award winner will surely be the next to go. It was reported by the Star Tribune today that the Twins made Santana a 5 year deal worth $93 million. The deal would make him the highest paid pitcher in baseball/year slightly eclipsing San Francisco’s Barry Zito. Santana then countered with the number $126 million, the same number Zito signed for last year. It was unclear by the article I saw if that meant he wanted a 7 year deal or 5 years at $126 million.
If this is the case, then the Twins are in trouble. We're talking about a difference of between 7 and 8 million dollars per year. Even if Twins owner Carl Pohlad was to open up the wallet, it would destroy the franchise that claims to be a "small market" club. I know the owner has some money. He was ranked as the 245th richest person in the world as recently as 2006. What are we talking about here? 245th out of how many? What are we up to 6 billion? As good as Santana is, and there is no doubt he is great, I'm not sure any club could justify paying a player $25 million/season to only play once every 5 days.
If Santana were to stay in Minnesota it would be a "victory for the little guy" but bad for baseball. If the Twins truly are as small a market as they claim to be (18th of 30 ML teams in payroll in 2007) then how could they put a team around a player who would take up 25% of their teams’ payroll, who doesn't play every day? A situation I call the A-rod quagmire. A pitcher the caliber of Santana deserves to play for a contender. MLB needs players like him on a contending team to keep its name in the headlines and to help get the October ratings it’s always dying for. It would be a shame to see a pitcher who has already showed sheer dominance wasting his prime years playing for a last place team. This is the same problem baseball had when A-rod was in Texas.
But if Minnesota wants to start to pay their players, yesterday would have been a good time. If they would have paid Torii Hunter and Santana in the same season, then lock up Joe Nathan, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the next season, it would look as though they could contend for the title in the coming years. That would be good for the game. The past couple of Septembers have been fantastic to watch as playoff spots are being filled out on game 162 and in some cases game 163 of the regular season. Adding another team to the mix would only increase the drama and excitement of the pennant race.
Will they trade him (Santana)? Well sure, they'll have to get something for him and not just a compensatory draft pick from what ever team he signs with in the following off season. Sure their are takers out there but it's a risky move. Look at the situation. You already know what kind of money he'll be looking for on a new deal so you might only have him for one year. If anybody wants to make a trade it will most likely have to be of the sign and trade variety. Who ever makes the move will likely try to get closer Joe Nathan in the deal as well which will be the biggest sign that yes, the Twins are rebuilding again. A deal like this would take a package of at least 3 or 4 top notch prospects who are a) major league ready and b) not arbitration eligible for the next 3- 5 years. 4 organizations have the players to do it. The Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Angels.
Perhaps he will start the season with the Twins and combined with the returning Francisco Liriano provide a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation capable of carrying a team to the playoffs. But if they fall out of the race they would be forced to trade him before July 31 deadline to ensure they got their pick of a prospect (or two) who are already developed rather then waiting 3 years to see if their draft pick (if he walked) would pan out. Some times it works. When the Red Sox let Pedro Martinez walk they were able to draft Clay Bucholz. But, if they wait until that deadline, what ever package they receive will be greatly diminished from the ones they would be offered now. You usually don't give up 3 top notch players for a 3 month rental. It simply sets your franchise back to far. Also, you can hope nobody takes him and join the bidding war that will ensue over the 2008 off season. Spend the money on him, and place your prospects around him to negate the cost.
Let's face it though. He's not going to sign with the Twins because they will never offer what he wants. The only reason they are offering an extension or offered Torii Hunter arbitration is to say to their fans "hey, we tried. We made what we thought was a fair offer and they rejected it. If you want to be disappointed, be disappointed with them." And as they say that and have your attention, Pohlads accountants will be carrying sacs of cash out the back door and putting it in to a Swiss bank account.
I am a 23 year old transplanted Vermonter currently living outside of the Pittsburgh area. Not the place to be when your a Patriots fan I can tell you that much. I've always loved sports but like most of us, I never really amounted to anything. My 1 glorious moment came in 2002 as a Senior at a small town division three Vermont high school. I played 3rd base for a team that went to the State Championship game. We played horribly, and the headline in the paper the next morning should have read State Chumps. Now I find it's easiest to talk sports with a chicken wing in one hand and a drink in the other. I am a fan of the game first and my team(s) second. I hate a "fan" who simply says "they BLEEP ". That's a nice opinion, now give me a reason. My last name is White so my title is really a pun.
