Well, I thought it was about time to check in with the NFL since I haven’t given it the attention it deserves lately. Yes, I have many roommates in the sports world as a fan. Football has been out late partying recently, and I haven’t got a real chance to sit down and talk with him since he moved in. But this morning I was pleasantly surprised while enjoying a bowl of scrumptious mini-wheats (they improve brain function…allegedly) when football came to the table and talked with me over breakfast. He certainly wasn’t happy about some of the things I was saying about him back in September. I admitted that I was wrong about a few things – very wrong in some cases – but I also had to point out to him that I was right on a great many things. And – if he had paid close enough attention – even the things I was initially wrong about, I quickly corrected myself after only one week.

I’ve decided to share my wonderful morning conversation with my readers, as it may hopefully brighten your day more than Dilbert or the daily sudoku.

(Note: I picture football as a male roommate simply because a female roommate never leaves towels on the floor of the bathroom, dirty socks sitting on the sofa, and spots on the toilet seat – all of which the NFL seems to be doing this season.)

The Wrongs

I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong about some things coming into this season – though tactful readers and listeners will never let me live it down until I come out and explain, so here I am.

Prediction: Adrian Peterson will miss at least two games this season.
The season is still young. We have five weeks to play and some playoff football, so I’m not going to recant this quite yet. I would never wish injury upon another person, but I would almost rather see him get hurt and prove those dishes aren’t mine instead of doing them myself.

Prediction: Michael Turner, Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson – Fantasy Busts
Um…yeah. You’re right. Those boxes in the garage are mine. Sorry! Turner has looked very impressive in his starting role for Atlanta. Jerious Norwood is still a much more explosive back, but Turner has lived up to his hype. Calvin Johnson has been a star in the middle of space this season, and I can’t imagine what he could do if he had some orbiting planets, moons…heck, even an asteroid out there in Detroit. Greg Jennings hasn’t really been a bust, but I didn’t say he would be a complete disaster. Keep in mind that I predicted him to fall short of 10 TDs and 75 receptions…a prediction he is on pace to keep.

Prediction: Edgerrin James, Rudi Johnson – Fantasy Gems
What was that? You’re breaking up, I can’t hear you man. I’m going through a tunnel right now and…

Prediction: Tennessee Titans would finish 6-10; currently 10-0
While I may not have been right in the pre-season, I must point out that after the week 1 trouncing of the Jaguars, I said that if Tennessee plays defense like this, and Vince Young is not the starting QB, that nobody would beat them. They have been, he’s not, and nobody has. Closed discussion.

The Rights

P: Steven Jackson will get less than 10 TDs this season.
Currently has 4 TDs. I think the house better start counting my Washingtons.

P: Donovan McNabb and Andre Johnson will play all 16 regular season games.
Looking good so far. Both of these guys have been dodging land mines their whole career – I figure it’s about time they found a way across.

P: Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan will both throw more than 20 TDs and less than 20 INTs.
Rodgers: 15 TDs, 6 INTs
Ryan: 11 TDs, 6 INTs
Both QBs have been solid this season. While Ryan may not make 20 TDs, the point of the prediction was that these guys would both be solid, despite the uncertainty surrounding them. Both Ryan and Rodgers were studious and smart in college, so I didn’t think it was a hard prediction to make. I asked Miley Cyrus (since she’s the smartest person in the USA according to People magazine) why the Niners ever took Alex Smith over Rodgers, and she couldn’t give me an answer. Neither could Woody Paige – but when does that guy have an answer for anything?

P: At least six teams in the NFL will have different starting QBs in week 12.
Welcome to week 12: Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gus Frerotte, Kerry Collins, Kurt Warner, Shaun Hill, Brady Quinn, Tyler Thigpen, Sage Rosenfels, and Daunte Culpepper. Should’ve up the ante it seems.

P: Darren McFadden WON’T rush for more than 1,500 yards (this is for my brother, who guaranteed McFadden would rush for more than 1,500 yards).
My initial prediction was 1,000 yards even. I don’t care if he plays all 16 games, McFadden is an owner away from ever hitting the century mark.

P: Brett Farve will throw more than 25 TDs this season.
I don’t have to mention his interceptions…do I?

P: Jay Cutler will be a QB for the AFC Pro Bowl team.
So many people gave me heat for this, saying Cutler wasn’t any good, probably has steroids in his insulin needles, etc. Well, he’s almost a lock for the Pro Bowl, and we aren’t even done yet. The guy may look like somebody slapped his face together with play-doh and breast implants, but he is the real deal.

What are your thoughts on rookie runningbacks Kevin Smith (DET) and Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)? Also I took Michael Turner (ATL) as my number two RB. I got Westbrook as my starter.
(tiredboredguy; Subject: Rookies)

I think that Kevin Smith will be the best rookie rookie runningback this year with the possible exception of Darren McFadden. Tatum Bell won' t see many carries and the Lions seem to be committed to establishing a running game this year. The signing of Rudi Johnson shouldn't affect him much (if the Lions are smart). What worries me is that their defense didn't improve at all, so they may get caught in shootouts and forget that they have a RB...All in all, Kevin Smith is a great rookie RB pick.

Rashard Mendenhall isn't bad as far as rookies go, in fact I have him on my auction league team. But that league is a keeper league, and that's probably about all the value Mendenhall is going to see unless Parker gets hurt again. Willie Parker is a great runningback, and unless something happens to him, I don't see Mendenhall making a huge impact this season. Depending on your other positions, I might look to trade him to another owner while he still has value unless you are in a keeper league. The owner of Willie Parker might be interested and give you more than he's worth.

Michael Turner is on my fantasy fool's gold list. While he won't be bad, he won't put up good enough numbers to rely upon him week to week as a number two. His value right now is way too high, so I would look to trade him if you can in a deal for someone like Brandon Jacobs, Reggie Bush, Jamal Lewis, or Earnest Graham.

Westbrook is a stud. Whatever you do, don't get rid of this guy. He has been underrated in fantasy football for the last three years, and this is the first year he's gotten any respect.

What does the rest of your team look like?

bigdix

As a follow up to my undervalued fantasy piece, I decided that I was going to also do an overvalued players list. I was looking through my viable fantasy options on some of the expert lists and saw a few names that just looked like they didn’t belong, so I decided to do my research and sure enough, many fantasy experts are drawn to the same short-sighted conclusions about the same players, and I can’t understand why. When a player was only the 4th best fantasy receiver on his own team last year, how does he make it into the top 20 this year?

Sorry to the “experts”, but I don’t have any man-love for guys that I think will put up numbers. In fantasy sports, I want players that I know will put up numbers. On a side note, the fantasy football draft that they had on ESPN (with Tom Jackson, Roy Williams, etc.) was worse than Carrottop’s stand-up comedy. If you even consider taking a shred of fantasy advice from that show (other than what Matthew Berry says), then you should quit fantasy football. Seriously.

Enough ranting. Remember that I’m judging these players on their fantasy value, and not their talent. No doubt that some of these players are talented, but when it comes to racking up points in your fantasy league, you absolutely should avoid taking these players where they are ranked. Again, we’re going for value for your pick, and if you are taking these players where they have been projected on the “expert” lists, you’re making a big mistake. Chances are, these players will be scoring the same amount of points as guys drafted three rounds lower. Rightfully so, I’m going to dub these players my fantasy fool’s gold because while they look good, they simply won’t put up fantasy numbers that warrant their ranking.

QB, Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns

A man that came out of nowhere last season and propelled himself into the fantasy elite, Anderson is being projected on average as the #5 QB in rankings. Certainly Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees are better fantasy QBs, and projecting him above any of these players would be just plain stupid. The problem I have is that Anderson is being taken ahead of Roethlisberger, Palmer, Hasselbeck, and McNabb.

However, we’re not just saying he is getting taken before these players. He’s being taken in the 3rd-4th round, two to three rounds before any of these other players. Palmer is the only one who scored less points per game than Anderson, and the margin was negligible (even Garrard and Favre scored more than Anderson). Anderson scored about 20.6 points per game while Roethlisberger scored 23.5, Palmer scored 19.7, Hasselbeck scored 21.7, McNabb scored 20.7, and Garrard scored 21.5.

Just because he came out of nowhere, people seem to think he is the next coming of Bernie Kosar in Cleveland (sorry for the poor reference Browns fans). There are doubts that Anderson will repeat his good year – on top of those doubts he isn’t worth a pick two rounds earlier than any of the aforementioned QBs. If you want Derek Anderson on your team this year, don’t waste an early pick on him like so many people are doing. You can wait until Roethlisberger and company start slipping from the board then get him. If someone else takes him early, then they’ve done you a favor, because you can draft a QB a couple rounds later who will probably score as well or better than him. Sorry Derek, I love ya as a fantasy QB, but I’m not yet buying that you are a third or fourth round pick.

RB, Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Yea, I have the right Adrian Peterson. “All day” AP. Purple Jesus. Whatever you decide to call him, he ain’t worth the second overall pick in your draft (plus, I only have one quarterback on this list, so I have to pick on somebody else).

Whether or not you like ESPN’s Talented Mr. Roto, Peterson is one player he is spot on about. There are a number of better picks than Adrian Peterson, yet people have already jumped on the AP wagon for a ride to fantasy town. Tear that ticket up son, because if you draft Adrian Peterson with any of the first four picks in your draft, you just got burned.

The Vikings will be running the Peterson train until it falls of the tracks. And, chances are, it will. Adrian Peterson is an injury concern considering he hasn’t played a full season of football since…well, I can’t imagine he even played pee-wee football without being sidelined by some sort of injury. Injury concern aside, the numbers just don’t justify picking him ahead of Tomlinson, Westbrook, or even Joseph Addai (on a points per game basis, Peterson had less than Addai). Regardless of your league, you should be selecting Brady before him also. In three of his last four games, Peterson tallied only 2, 4, and 3 points respectively. Teams are going to catch on to the fact that Tarvaris Jackson can’t throw a football nearly as well as Culpepper can throw a yacht party (sorry Minnesota, couldn’t resist it), and they were starting to catch on at the end of last year.

Now, I’m not saying that Peterson will be a fantasy bust or anything. Almost definitely he will be a stud RB, but Tomlinson, Westbrook, and Addai all scored considerably better than AP did, and did so on much more of a consistent basis. Tom Brady, regardless of your scoring, should be taken before Peterson without question. Facts are facts, and in fantasy sports, consistency matters. If you take away the ridiculous antics of the 296 yard 3 TD game he had against San Diego, he was no better than Edgerrin James last year. In the words of the late Bernie Mac in the movie Ocean’s Thirteen, “Nuff said”.

RB, Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

I’m going to keep this very simple, because this situation is very, very simple. Runningbacks that are being drafted on average AFTER Michael Turner include: Rudi Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Earnest Graham, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney, Willie Parker, Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, etc. Again, this is another case of “experts” getting excited before a product even hits the field.

True that Michael Turner was a stud behind LT in San Diego, but he’s in Atlanta now. And the Falcons are bad – arguably the worst team in the NFL. Add on top of this that he may not even be the best RB on the roster (Jerious Norwood). However, he will start because Atlanta paid him $61 million to tote the rock. Again though, it’s Atlanta. They were ranked 26th in the league in rushing last year (remember, they are far removed from leading the league in rushing yards since the Vick era). Why are they going to miraculously get better? I’m sorry, but Michael Turner is not the antidote to the Falcon poison.

Regardless of what I’ve said, any sane fantasy football player wouldn’t risk taking Turner a round or two before all the runningbacks I’ve listed above. He’s not a fourth round pick people. He’s not even a fifth round pick. Turner is a mid-round chance pick as a #3 runningback. Take Turner in rounds 8-11 if you really want good value for your pick, because that’s about what he’s worth.

RB, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Why people keep drafting him in the second round is a mystery to me. Never in the history of fantasy football would someone even consider taking a platoon back with a first or second round pick. However, there is still a large devoted crowd of “experts” picking him in the second round for the third straight year, and I call these people the “Drew-Crew”. The Drew Crew thinks that every year is the year that Fred Taylor will be put on IR. The Drew Crew thinks that every year MJD will rush for 1,500 yards and 15 TDs and be a stud. And every year since Jones-Drew has been in the league, the Drew Crew has been wrong.

I don’t know about you, but personally I wouldn’t risk my second or third round pick banking on an injury to a guy who is as healthy as he’s been in his whole career, and rushing as well as he ever has (Fred Taylor). “Experts” want so bad for Jones-Drew to be a fantasy stud that they are forcing him up on their rankings. Yet, you wouldn’t draft Chester Taylor in the second/third round banking on an Adrian Peterson injury, now would you? Would you draft Justin Fargas there? Here is where ignorant “expert” then says, “But Jones-Drew puts up better numbers than poor old Chester Taylor and Justin Fargas.” This is where the guy who knows better says, “Go look for yourself.” I threw Derrick Ward in the mix too, because heck, Brandon Jacobs could get hurt too:

Points per Game
Maurice Jones-Drew: 10.81
Justin Fargas: 9.81
Chester Taylor: 9.79
Derrick Ward: 12.81

Average Draft Position
Maurice Jones-Drew: 22 (3rd round)
Justin Fargas: 106 (11th round)
Chester Taylor: 102 (11th round)
Derrick Ward: 171 (18th round)

Come on, are we listening yet? The chances that MJD will develop into a stud fantasy RB are far too low (and have been incorrect for two years now) to waste a second or third round pick on. Personally, I would rather actually HAVE a stud runningback who isn’t splitting carries than drafting a guy who was 19th at his position in points per game and isn’t even a premiere back for his team. He is an incredible, explosive player and also a decent fantasy option, but maybe in rounds 4-7 and not 2-3.

WR, Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers

If you read my undervalued column, you probably noticed that I took a shot at Greg Jennings. No, I’m not going to get my theoretical 6 year old son and tell him that he sucks and I hate him (sorry Aaron Rodgers, I didn’t know Green Bay was that cold). Jennings is a very talented player, and will be for many years to come, but fantasy players need to face the facts. Brett Favre is no longer in Green Bay.

Jennings had a TD every 4.4 receptions last year in the regular season. The only WR better than that was Randy Moss (4.2). You might think this is a good reason to draft him, but if Matt Cassel was the Patriots QB, would you expect the same from Moss this year? While Rodgers will probably be better than Cassel, you have to remember that Jennings only had 53 grabs last year while Moss had 98. Plus, Jennings didn’t even eclipse 1,000 yards receiving.

Jennings won’t get 15 TDs this year. Mark my words. I’ll max him out at 10, and that’s probably slightly generous given the situation in Green Bay. While he is certainly going to be a good fantasy wide receiver, don’t draft him in the 3rd or 4th round expecting him to repeat his ’07 performance because that is a tough act to follow. Consider Jennings a low to mid #2 WR, and even lower in leagues that award receptions. Jennings is worth maybe a 5th to 6th round draft pick. Don’t reach on him with an earlier pick than this expecting him to score like he did last season. The elite receivers are deep enough this year that you’d be better off drafting Jennings later and picking up a Chad Johnson or Torry Holt with that 3rd/4th pick.

WR, Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

What do Jerry Porter, Reggie Brown, Roydell Williams, Shaun McDonald, Isaac Bruce, Ronald Curry, Patrick Crayton, Chris Chambers, Nate Burleson, Santana Moss, Brandon Stokley, Amani Toomer, and Joey Galloway all have in common? They were all better than Calvin Johnson last year in fantasy football.

I like receivers who get a lot of targets and receptions, because that means that the team is going to lean on that guy to get them out of a jam. Calvin Johnson? He’s NOT that guy. Roy Williams is. Calvin Johnson is ranked ludicrously high on every “expert” list I look at, and has done nothing to warrant it (though he does look good in preseason, which makes me antsy to write about him).

I’m sorry, but the Lions had 3 WRs that put up better fantasy numbers that Calvin Johnson last year: Roy Williams, Shaun McDonald, and Mike Furrey. Plus, that fantasy football inflation known as the “Martz miracle” has left Detroit. I’m sorry, I refuse to place a WR who scored only 7.32 points per game last year in the top 20. While Johnson should do better this year, he won’t put up stud numbers, and shouldn’t be ranked ahead of Hines Ward, Brandon Marshall, Laverneous Coles, Jericho Cotchery, or Marvin Harrison. Look at points per game (this ignores Johnson’s injury last year). You need more production from that to draft a guy in the 5th or 6th round. Calvin Johnson is worth more of a 7th or 8th round pick, and hopefully is your #3 WR because he won’t be putting up #1 or #2 numbers.

On a side note, I think Johnson will be very good in ’09, but that’s 12 months away…

TE, Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears

Because the TE pool is very deep this year, it was difficult to find a guy that you know won’t be as good as his draft position indicates. However, Greg Olsen is one of those guys. The Bears offense will be absolutely abysmal this year, especially with the recent announcement that Kyle Orton is the starting QB (the carousel will probably spin back to Grossman at some point).

Olsen still isn’t the only TE target on his team, and he should be considered a platoon tight end with the amount of time Desmond Clark continues to see with the first team offense. Yeah, he’s a tight end on the rise, but there’s no way I could justify ranking him ahead of Alge Crumpler, Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler, Benjamin Watson, or Donald Lee like many “experts” are doing. Olsen is a player to watch in the next few years, but ’08 isn’t the year he breaks out as a fantasy player. He will be a low-end backup fantasy tight end this year, definitely worth a chance in a keeper league. But you shouldn’t be spending anything but a 17th or 18th rounder on him if you want fantasy production this year.

Other Players to Avoid Drafting at Expert Rankings

RB, Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – see the Greg Olsen piece about the Bears offense. Then consider that he’s not even guaranteed many carries. Maybe worth a pick in a keeper league or a late-round flier. You’d be better off with almost any of the other rookie runningbacks.

RB, Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks – another back that changed teams to a place where he isn’t even the best back on the team (Maurice Morris). Plus, the Seahawks are a passing team and Jones is an injury risk. Shouldn’t be drafted before LenDale White, Thomas Jones, Rudi Johnson, or others, yet people still seem to think he’s worth a pick in rounds 5 and 6.

WR, Sidney Rice, Minnesota Viking – terrible QB, only 5.14 points per game last year, a WR on a team that rushes the ball twice as much as they pass. Don’t even know why he is ranked in the top 70 let alone the top 40 at his position. Only worth a late round pick at best.

WR, Devin Hester, Chicago Bears – you’re kidding me, right? Awesome player, but very lackluster fantasy value.