With all the fantasy football information out there these days, including projection sheets, draft kits, rookie watches, sleepers, and otherwise, leagues are becoming more and more competitive. Even the most green of drafters could simply go down a pre-made draft list from top to bottom picking the best player available and end up with a competitive team. It is very difficult in this fantasy day and age to gain an edge on your competitors, but it’s certainly possible when you know something that goes against popular decree that will yield you more points per week.
Drafting fantasy players is all about value: how many points per week you are getting for your draft pick, and how that points per game stacks up against the other players at the position. Looking over the “expert” lists, there are a few fantasy gems that aren’t rated nearly as high as they should be, who will produce more points than many of the players listed above them. The key is to find these players, so that when other people are spending high draft picks to get the popular fantasy players, you get a player who will get just as many points two rounds later. In 2008, this will be even more important, as players have become increasingly difficult to predict. Don’t jump out a round early to get these players, as the point of me highlighting these players is that their average draft position doesn’t nearly reflect the product on the field. If you can get these players where the experts are projecting them, then you’ve found good value for your pick, which is one thing that can give you an edge against the other players in your league. Also, I encourage any comments or arguments you may have with what I say, because I'd like to know what readers think of my selections of fantasy gems.
Let’s explore the fantasy gems that are underrated on most expert lists:
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles Yes, there are many arguments out there that Donovan McNabb is overrated, but Rush Limbaugh aside, this guy has been as steady of a fantasy QB as you could ask for. Expert lists have McNabb rated as high as the #7 QB and as low as the #12 QB. The fact of the matter is this, over the past three years, the only quarterbacks that have scored more total points than Donovan McNabb are Peyton Manning, Tom Brady (thanks to last year), Drew Brees, and Carson Palmer. Notice that I said total points and not points per game. When considering points per game, McNabb only falls short of Brees and Manning (however, obviously with the addition of Randy Moss, Brady will surly surpass McNabb this year). Even with McNabb’s injury tendencies, he’s still better than most QBs in the league for fantasy points, yet he is still rated below them. In addition, in leagues that penalize more for INTs (-4 or -6), McNabb gains even more value because he throws less interceptions than virtually every quarterback in the NFL.
It comes down to this: Manning, Brady, Brees, Palmer, and Romo are all going to give you better numbers this year than McNabb. But McNabb will be similar, if not better than, the likes of Roethlisberger, Anderson, Hasselback, Bulger, Favre and Cutler – all of whom are being drafted on average at a higher spot than McNabb. While other players are spending their round 1-5 picks on these QBs, you can pick up McNabb in the 6th or 7th round and only be losing about 1-2 points per game from the elite QBs.
Then there is the injury story. Yes, McNabb’s value is somewhat dependant on his injury susceptibility, but that is why if you draft McNabb, make sure you get a reliable backup QB in rounds 9-12 such as Eli Manning, David Garrard, Jon Kitna, or Phillip Rivers (see below).
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers Most, if not all QB rankings have the likes of David Garrard, Delhomme, Aaron Rodgers, and even Jason Campbell ahead of Philip Rivers. Rivers is ranked anywhere from 15 to 21 on QB rankings, and this is certainly too low for what you should expect fantasy-wise this season. Many are concerned about his knee, but let’s just rewind for a second. Carson Palmer suffered a knee injury also his second year as a starter, and the next year…well, he was Carson Palmer. It would be foolhardy to consider Rivers “injury prone” and QBs don’t generally have “lingering” injuries anyway, so the knee shouldn’t affect his fantasy performance at all.
While you can’t expect Rivers to go out and produce Palmeresque numbers, he really should be considered a low-end #1 or high-end #2 QB. In his only two years as a starter, he threw for over 3000 yards and 20 TDs, and a lot of players have a way of breaking out in their third years. Add there is the fact that he is on one of the elite teams in the AFC, has a top-three tight end and a dominant defense, and oh yeah, there’s this guy LT on his team. Plus, he has two big, physical receivers in Chambers and Jackson that both are fully integrated into the offense coming into the ’08 season. There is no reason why Rivers shouldn’t throw for another 20 TDs and 3000 yards this year, and no reason why he shouldn’t be considered in the class with Cutler and Favre this year.
All that said, even if Rivers underachieves from everything I’ve stated above, if you can grab Rivers in the 10th or 11th round, you’ve certainly nabbed a bargain considering he’s being drafted anywhere from the 11th round to the 17th round.
Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals I’m not sure how in the last two years, Edge has fallen down the rankings so dramatically that he is being drafted after runningbacks like Earnest Graham, Michael Turner, Julius Jones, Fred Taylor, and even rookies Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart. Just look at the facts. There are only 14 teams left in the NFL that have a definite #1 runningback, and Edge is on one of those teams. In fantasy football, runningbacks are hard enough to find already, let alone a guy that will see 95% of the snaps for his team, and has only missed one game in the last four years as a premiere back. He’s durable, he’s reliable, and on top of that, there were only 8 RBs that scored more points that Edge last year. Most people don’t realize how many points Edge actually brings in despite his low yards per carry. What’s more is that in leagues that reward points per reception, he’s definitely no slouch, especially when teams start to key in on Boldin and Fitzgerald more and Leinart is forced to check down (think 40 receptions).
The prospect of Matt Leinart starting a full year also gives Edge value, because when Kurt Warner was under center, the team seems to become a little pass-happy and forget about Edge. In the five games last year with Leinart under center, James averaged 88.4 yards per game and scored three touchdowns. With Leinart under center for a full year, that would equate to 1400 yards rushing and 10 TDs. Are we beginning to see why he is undervalued?
Even with fantasy players consistently drafting RB heavy, James isn’t getting drafted until the 6th, 7th, or 8th round and this is certainly a travesty when going just by the numbers. If you get Edge in rounds 4-7, you’ve just got great value for a mid-round pick.
Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati BengalsThis gem is probably the biggest stretch of them all, but hear me out on this. Before last year, when Rudi was hobbled by a hamstring injury, Rudi was the icon of consistency at RB. He was a perennial 1st/2nd round back who quietly gobbled up 1400 yards rushing and 12 TDs in three straight seasons (okay, so 1309 isn’t 1400, but stop nit-picking).
Depending on how he looks in the preseason and practices, Rudi could be the biggest comeback player of the year. There’s no reason why, if he’s healthy, he shouldn’t eclipse at least 1200 yards and 10 TDs, which is actually amazing given his draft position. Johnson isn’t being drafted until the 6th or 7th round in most leagues. If you are able to land Rudi in these early middle rounds, you’ve secured yourself a solid #2 runningback with great comeback potential. However, you may want to spend a late round flier pick on backup Kenny Watson in case the hamstring acts up again.
Wide Receivers Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers There are a few reasons why Driver has been swept under the proverbial fantasy football rug, yet he seems to always crawl his way back out. One reason is because after the best year of his career in ’02, he suffered a season crippling neck injury in ’03 and his numbers plummeted. The other reason is because of the Greg Jennings phenomenon also known as “right place right time”. Jennings stole all the touchdowns in Green Bay last year, and Driver scored just two. He is being drafted anywhere between the 8th round and 10th round, which is certainly great value for a player of his caliber as I will explain.
Just look at Drivers numbers the past six years. He has eclipsed 1000 yards in 5 of those six years (remember the neck injury took the one year away from him), and he has scored at least 8 touchdowns in four of those years (neck injury again, and the ’07 campaign). Driver had 82 receptions last year, so he will still be a major target across the middle of the field while Jennings stretches the safeties deep. Furthermore, Rodgers seems to be a little bit more comfortable throwing the shorter crossing routes to Driver. Don’t be fooled by Jennings’ numbers. He caught 1 TD pass every 4 receptions, which won’t happen again. I expect to see some of those touchdowns coming back towards Driver in ’08.
Driver will be a #3 receiver on someone’s team, who will perform like a #2. Leagues that award for receptions should take a serious look at Driver, as he could reach 90 receptions this year with another 1000 yard notch on his belt and probably 5-7 touchdowns.
Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens Wide receivers are like wine, they only get better with old age. But for some reason, fantasy “experts” will have you believe that Ronald Curry, Sidney Rice, Anthony Gonzalez, Mark Clayton, and James Hardy are all better picks than Derrick Mason. Fantasy sports are about numbers my friend, not exciting young players who don’t produce. Believe it or not, Mason isn’t being drafted until the 13th or 14th round in most drafts, most of the time behind all of the aforementioned players.
Numbers, numbers, numbers. In seven of the last eight years, Mason has grabbed more than 73 receptions and 1000 yards, and has averaged 5-6 TD’s. I’m not saying he’s going to knock your socks off, because he won’t. But if the #4 receiver on your team is putting up these types of numbers, you’ve got a great #3 filler or bye-week starter that won’t let you down. Yeah, yeah, many “experts” think that he is old and will slow down without McNair, but the realistic thing about possession receivers is that they actually get better with age, so there is no reason to expect Mason’s numbers to mysteriously drop off a cliff like all the experts think.
If you are currently drinking something, I suggest you put it down. Something you probably didn’t know is that in leagues that award points for receptions, Mason was the #13 overall WR in points ahead of the likes of Steve Smith, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, Andre Johnson, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Roy Williams. You may now pick your jaw up from the floor. That’s the facts.
Mason is undervalued and underrated as a WR in the NFL, and especially fantasy sports. If you can grab Mason in the late/mid rounds (12th-15th) where he is being drafted on average, you’ve got incredible value for your pick.
Benjamin Watson, New England Patriots For some reason, a player that catches passes from the #1 QB in fantasy football isn’t being drafted in many leagues, and if he is being drafted, it’s in rounds 15-18. One reason that I advocate that he should be drafted is because everything is working in his favor, and nothing seems to be working against him. He is on the most explosive offense in football, he’s got great size and mobility, grabbed 6 TDs in just 12 games last year, is as young as any other TE in the league, is the TE on a team where defenses will be keyed in on the WRs, and is fully recovered from his ankle injury a year ago. But since I have been preaching numbers, let’s dive into it.
Watson should improve upon his numbers a year ago barring injury, but keeps sliding down so far on draft boards that he falls of the bottom to the waiver wire. Fact: Watson would’ve caught 48 passes for 519 yards and 8 TDs if you project his stats without the injury last year. Those stats are awful close to a favorite fantasy TE stud whose name rhymes with “priss schmooley”. So why isn’t this guy being drafted at all? There’s no mistaking it, Tom Brady loves him some TE’s. Watson scored more points per game last year than Heath Miller, Vernon Davis, Todd Heap, Alge Crumpler, and especially Greg Olsen. And L.J. Smith? Are you really going to bring that up? Yet again, these guys seem to find their way ahead of Watson on draft boards across the world.
If you are able to land Watson with a pick anywhere after the 12th round, consider the pick a fantasy gem. Watson may be a low to mid range #1 TE this year. He won’t put up numbers like Gates, Gonzalez, Winslow, Witten, or Clark, but he certainly is a great option for the next tier or TE’s that is being forgotten about, and may actually be better than the guy you draft as your #1…
Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers There’s room for two on the Watson schooner quaintly named “Underrated TE”. “Experts” may think that you are actually fishing from this schooner if you pick Lee in your draft (rating him on average as the 19th TE and even as low as 23rd), but I think otherwise. Donald Lee is certainly not a sexy name, nor is it a household name at the TE position. However, like Watson, Lee has everything working in his favor: he has a young QB (we’ve all heard the adage about young QB’s checking to their TE’s), he is young himself, Bubba has left Wisconsin for good, and he is a large guy primed for red zone targets. Plus, Green Bay has always been good to its tight ends (Chmura and Franks – though that was the Favre era).
Lee, like Watson, isn’t being drafted in most drafts and if he is, it is on a late round flier. I’d take him as my backup, considering he actually played all year in Green Bay and scored better in fantasy points than Watson (and all the guys listed in the Watson piece). If you can land Lee as your backup TE in a round later than the 13th, consider that a good pick.
In leagues that let you flex a WR or TE, Lee and Watson are both great options instead of many inconsistent #3 wide outs, and actually scored more points per game than any of the receivers ranked 26 and below.
I am a recent college graduate and have a Bachelor's degree in English. I've always loved the dynamics of sports, so I decided that I would put my writing degree to use and start flooding the internet with my humble and shameless opinion. While baseball is my true passion, I will write about any or all topics and sports that spark my interest. Sports can teach us so many things, and I hope that my posts will inspire others to learn and observe sports in a new way. I'm not just your run-of-the-mi ll sports fan either, as I have played many sports myself and am currently still playing (no sir, I'm not talking slow pitch softball or city league basketball).
As I get the hang of things, this will hopefully become more like a bi-weekly sports column for my readers. Enjoy!