a bamaboy's Blog
by: bamaboy22
How will Phoenix finish?
Mar 05, 2008 | 10:08AM | report this

With the acquisition of O'Neal, the Suns were both written off and also penciled in as contenders by many.  The Suns have gone 5-6 since trading for Shaq (or trading away Marion as some see it.)  With Shaq in their lineup they are 3-4, not the start they had envisioned or even hoped for that matter.  At this point they are a half game up on the Rockets and hold the 5th spot.  If the playoffs started today, they would take on Utah (1-1 this season with the final meeting between the two on Friday.)  That game could be pivotal in deciding homecourt advantage for the series.  The Suns are a game and a half ahead right now, and a season series tie-breaker could be essential considering Utah is 26-3 at home and only 13-19 on the road.  Of their final 22 games, 12 are against teams currently in playoff position (Philly and New Jersey both count and are back to back at the end of a four game road trip starting with Detroit and Boston.)  They also face Portland twice, Denver three times and Sacremento, all mathematically alive for playoffs although not realisticly (at least in Sacremento's case.) 

   Since the All-Star break, and Shaq's debut, Amare has averaged 28.7, up 5.5 from his 23.2 prior to the arrival.  His rebounds have dropped from 9.3 to 9.0 but Shaq pulls down 10.3 compared to Marion who would haul in 9.9.  Because of the increase, even ever silghtly, Amare does not have to work as hard on the defensive glass and he can work that much harder on the offensive glass since a shooter was lost when Marion left.  His offensive rebounds per game was 2.3 previously, in the 7 games with O'Neal, its at 2.6. 

    If shaq can stay productive for 30 minutes per game (When the Heat won their championship he was on the floor 30 per) then it will put the opposition in foul trouble early.  So far they have attempted 29.4 free throws per game since the move and connected on 76.7%.  Before Diesel arrived, they got to the line on average 22.5 times hitting 79.6%.  Getting the front court players in foul trouble will pay off when they are forced to cautiosly guard Amare with 6 plus minutes to go in the fourth allowing him to dominate tired, slower players who are in foul trouble.   And if a foul is called late in the game on Nash, Bell, or Hill they shoot 89.8% 90.1% and 87.4% respectively.  Stoudemire has shot well from the line this year at 79.8%, and Diaw comes in at 77.6%. 

  So even though the deal didn't quite sit right with many Suns fans, Kerr's thought process looks to be paying off.  The Suns are only 3-4 with him and 5-6 since making the move, but they are beginning to come together and after a few more games should be increasingly more comfortable slowing it down when Shaq is on the court.  Then turning it up the tempo with Barbosa.  The big question is whether they will get quality production out of Diaw.  In the games since O'Neal arrived, he is getting 10.3 points per game and 5.3 rpg compared to pre Shaq numbers of 8.1 and 4.5 while playing just over one minute less per game. 

   The problems they face in the playoffs will be who guards Manu and Tony Parker?  Bell is a great defender (don't tell that to Kobe that guy doesn't need any more motivation) and can slow down one, but not both when they are on the court.  And he can't 48 minutes of chasing these guys around because they need his shot to keep teams from doubling their bigs.  Since getting rid of Marion, Bell has been forced to play an additional 3 minutes per game since he is guarding the star not Marion and his point production has slipped form above 12 per to 8.  Barbosa is quick enough to stay with them, but lacks size on Manu (6'3'' vs. 6'6''.)  And Grant Hill does a good enough job as a defender, but they will need him on offense to be another kick out threat.  So this leaves D.J. Strawberry with big minutes and a big task.  This however, is moot is they do not have an answer for Utah's front court.  Okur and AK47 are capable of knocking down long range shots forcing Amare or Shaq (more likely Amare so Shaq can guard Boozer to protect Amare from foul trouble.)  Amare has been held to 19 points per game vs. Utah but if Nash can keep up his 29 points 11 assists against the Jazz they should be fine. 

  Because the Suns lost the tie breaker against the Lakers and are 2 and 1/2 back, it doesn't look as if they will get that top seed they envisioned.  It will be a difficult task to survive the Western Conference playoffs (or even their first round mathcup, could be Utah, could be New Orleans) but expect the same thrilling series as always.  How great would a game 7 in LA  of Suns v Lakers be?

8 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Phoenix Suns, Shaquille O’Neal, Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Lakers, Shawn Marion, Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs, New Orleans Hornets, Kobe Bryant
 
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Hoffman
Mar 5, 2008
11:45 AM
I'm going to the Suns/Nuggets game tonight. It should be interesting.

I don't have a problem with Phoenix's offense slowing down. But is it really in their best interests when they don't even give Shaq touches in the paint? I thought that was the reason they decided to trade for him, so he could give them a reliable low post scoring option. He's averaging less than 10 shots a game.

So where's the benefit in having him on your roster? He can't guard anyone. He gets 10 rebounds a night but how many NBA players are capable of doing that?

Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire are best in the open court or operating on the pick-and-roll. So why is D'Antoni having Shaq set picks? I don't think I've seen Shaq receive a pass while rolling to the basket. That play has been useless.

Phoenix is worse defensively (which I predicted), especially against opposing perimeter players. Without Marion, they can't hide Nash on defense.

Teams are turning the tables on them too. With Marion, the Suns ran on everyone. Now that they have Shaq, teams are running on them.

I'm expecting a high flying game from Melo, AI, and K-Mart tonight.

rampantfanatic
Mar 5, 2008
12:07 PM
bamaboy'
It's not how Phoenix'll finish but whether or not they possess the stamina to survive the rest of the regular season ? Much like the Mavs and their psyche after last year's debacle. The powers that be within Fox has now deemed my site 'persona non grata' . No explanation they just shut the site down. But that is their want.


rampant aka tophatal .....

WrZlt
Mar 5, 2008
2:52 PM
Great thoughts Hoff you touched on all the reasons why the Shaq trade was bad especially mid season.

nwhatdheck
Mar 5, 2008
3:44 PM
I hope D'antoni would try instill defense to his Suns just like what they did yesterday against the Blazers, however, it should be done from the 1st bell to the last. PHX can be a great team except that they should reassess their priorities and transform themselves not just an offensive squad but a defense oriented Suns. I do believe they can do that, unfortunately not on this present time, it is too late to that now.

RelicFace
Mar 6, 2008
8:52 AM
Nice write Bama,

We Laker fans were rough on Phoenix when we heard the worn out diesel was going to the high octane Suns.

We knew he was struggling for the last year or 2 as a Laker. Injured, slow and unmotivated. Therefore, even us 'only know a bit about BBall types' knew this wasn't going to work...how could it? He's become like an older person who talks about his previous life exploits and how he's going to continue doing them now that he's on a new team.....right.....and I'm going back to high school in 1975 and become the captain of the football team.
Kerr and the rest on the Sun's organization should have known better.....should have been better judges of BBall players. All the blame lies with the organization.....it's simple incompetence....their fans should sue them for malpractice.

Last edited by RelicFace on March 6th at 8:53 AM.

eev
Mar 6, 2008
9:17 AM
Good luck to Suns. Unfortunately they will be lucky to make the first round of the playoffs, and won't make the second.

They nolonger have a defensive stopper (Marrion). It's not oneals fault, he's doing the best he can.

Strange as it may seem the weak spot in the offense now is Steve Nash. Too much dribble, not enough pass. With Shaq in the middle, and no Marrion the passing game and running game if not gone are very predictable.

Trade Diau and Grant for a good young small forward.

DanFan
Mar 8, 2008
1:33 PM
"I hope D'antoni would try instill defense to his Suns just like what they did yesterday against the Blazers, however, it should be done from the 1st bell to the last."

You don't do this in game 60 of the season. Too little too late, guys.

teacher54
Mar 14, 2008
8:31 AM
Suns will be just fine. As long as they have Nash anything can happen. He did it again last night against the Warriors. Who ran just a little slower then the Suns. Go Nash.

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bamaboy22
A hater in every sense imaginable. Hate bandwagon championship fans, hate that people think baseball is boring, hate stupid croc shoes, hate the cell phone ear piece, hate that Anaheim, Carolina, and Tampa were the home to three consecutive Stanley Cup winners (who really plays hockey there, why not here in bama?) hate Tommy T, hate spelling correctly, and hate Kevin McHale.
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