Conventional wisdom when drafting in the NBA is “when in doubt go big”. Historically NBA GMs have played it safe and followed that mantra to a tee, even when the results were embarrassing and career jeopardizing – the classic example against this rule of thumb of course is when Portland took Sam Bowie out of Kentucky ahead of some guy named Jordan.
Still, that thinking continues to persist among NBA management and player personnel circles. So, it was no surprise then that during the 2005 draft big men Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams went 1-2 to the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks respectively. While Bogut and Williams have been decent additions to their teams, those two squads passed up on 2 really great point guards. Deron Williams of the Utah Jazz and Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets went 3rd and 4th during that season’s draft, and both will be the dominant players at the point guard position in the NBA for years to come.
While players like Steve Nash and Jason Kidd ride off into the twilight years of their careers, Williams and Paul will be racking up All-Star, All-NBA and perhaps even NBA Championship honors. But, let’s get more specific here. Who’s better? Is it the steady confidence and pin-point passing of Williams? Or, the explosive first step, toughness and playmaking ability of Paul?
Leadership: We went with this category first, because here is where you separate the talented, but unexceptional point guards from the great ones. While Paul is the clear leader on his team, despite the presence of other talented players like Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler and David West, Williams plays second fiddle on the Jazz to at least Carlos Boozer, and perhaps even Mehmet Okur and Andre Kirilenko. Williams also doesn’t have a “take charge and round up the troops” type personality. Paul, on the other hand, took the reigns of the Hornets from Day 1, leading the team to a whopping 20-win increase over the previous season.
Chris Paul: B+ Deron Williams: C+
Advantage: Chris Paul.
Shooting: Chris Paul is shooting 50% from the floor this year on 14.6 shots per game, but for his career Paul is only a 43.9% field goal shooter with most of his shots coming in the lane on driving layups. Williams’ game on the other hand is very much reliant on his silky-smooth outside jumper. Deron is shooting 49.1% this year on 13.9 shots per game, and for his career has shot 44.5%. He is also a better 3-point shooter than Paul, making 42.4% of his 3s this year while taking 2.8 per game. Paul is shooting better on this 3s this year, making 40.9%, but for his career he is a 31.9% shooter from beyond the arc. Williams has also shown, at least to this point, that he is a better clutch shooter than Paul.
Chris Paul: B- Deron Williams: B+
Advantage: Deron Williams
Passing: This is a really close call. While Chris Paul is better at breaking down the defense with his dribble and creating easy opportunities for the Hornets big men, Williams is a more accurate passer and gets a lot of his assists on pick-and-rolls with Boozer and Okur. This year, Chris Paul’s assists are through the roof at 10.8 per game, and for his career he is dropping 8.5 dimes per. Williams is getting 8.5 assists per this season and for his career he has dished out a relatively paltry 7 assists a game. Coming in this is a category we expected Williams to take. But, while he is a more accurate passer than Paul, he also gets a good chunk of his assists through the Jazz offensive system. Paul, on the other hand, can create assists, and subsequent points, where there aren’t any – creativity wins out.
Chris Paul: B+ Deron Williams: B
Advantage: Chris Paul
Defense: In this case, size makes a difference. Williams at 6’ 3” and 208 pounds is able to body up in the post against some of the bigger point guards in the league and he’s just quick enough to hold his own on the perimeter defensively. Paul, while crafty defensively on the block – see his steals at a whopping 3.2 per game – is somewhat undersized at 6’ and all of 175 pounds. While he is a better lock-down defender on the perimeter, anytime they play against Paul teams will try to make him play defense in the paint. Williams, on the other hand, has no such glaring defensive deficiency that teams can exploit.
Chris Paul: B- Deron Williams: B
Advantage: Deron Williams
Potential: The thing we like about Chris Paul, more than any thing else, is the way he has improved every season – the result of a lot of hard work in the off-season. Granted, Deron Williams also works incredibly hard and the Jazz coaches have labeled him the biggest “gym rat” on the team, he just hasn’t shown the incremental improvement that Paul has. His scoring, assists, field goal percentage and three-point percentage has improved every year during his first 3 seasons. This season, Paul is averaging an impressive 19.5 points, 10.8 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 3.2 steals per game. He is also shooting 50% from the floor overall, 40% from beyond the arc and 90% from the line – those are All-NBA numbers. Deron Williams has been a bit more up and down. While his scoring has gone up every year he’s been in the league, his assists, for example, are down this year. On the season, Deron is averaging 17.8 points, 8.4 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.2 steals per contest. His shot though is solid at 49.1% from the floor, 42.7% from 3 and 78.9% from the free-throw line.
Chris Paul: A- Deron Williams: B
Advantage: Chris Paul
Really, you probably can’t go wrong with either guard. But, if we were starting a franchise today and had to choose one of the two we’d take Chris Paul. His leadership and ability to take control of a team, potential to improve even more individually and highlight reel, ticket-selling game would put Paul just slightly ahead of Williams.
When I look at Deron Williams I see a Chauncey Billips-ish player with better passing. When I look at Paul I see the Nash small PG type thing. Tough call on which one is better. If both were healthy, I'd rather have CP3. That said, CP3 does seem to be a little injury prone...
Thanks lakersfan19! I've been reading your blog posts as well for a couple of weeks. Love the statistical analysis.
I considered the injury factor and originally had it in as one of the categories. But, then I thought Williams could get injured just as much as Paul did last year. Sure Paul missed some time last year, but he played 78 games as a rookie and is relatively healthy this year (although he did just miss a couple of games). And, at Wake Forest, he didn't miss any games. So, I figured I would keep that category out for now, because I'm not sure if I can call Chris injury prone just yet -- not enough of a track record I guess.
Nice blog, but i couldn't disagree more with some of your anlaysis. Paul and Williams play on distinctly different teams and just because one exhibits more leadership than the other doesnt mean one is more capable of a leader than the other. I watched Williams play for a few years at Illinois and he was a hell of a leader for that team. Paul is on a very young, raw team and he had to step up as a leader. Williams has more Veterans on his team and doent need to be a leader.
Also just looking at their skills, which are much more measurable than leadership abilities, i think the edge has got to go to Williams. Williams has improved darstically since coming into the league and has the size to eventually develop a low post game on par with Sam Cassell's. Williams is more complete and i think also has more room to grow.
I havent watched enough of each to say i am highly knowledgable of their play this year, but to me it seems that Paul also plays with in a system that is much more advantagous for a point guard than the one Williams plays for. For instance, Paul plays for the best 3 point shooting team in the league, while Williams plays for the 16th best team. That kind of goes against your theory of Paul playing in the tougher system. Plus, under the same coach that helped bring along perhaps the best point guard of all time, Williams is in a better coaching situation as well and would do well to take dvantage of that.
This is not meant to take anything away from Paul. He is a great point guard and will only get better, but i just think Williams has a bit more upside.
The Blazers could've drafted either one and didn't. So my answer is they're both great, and will likely be better than Martell Webster over the long haul.
Deron reminds me a better scoring version of Jason Kidd. Paul reminds me more of a willing to distribute the ball, Isiah Thomas. Of course, I could be way off. I like Deron better all around.
It's a real close call between the 2. Both are destined for greatness.
But...as you say, Williams plays for a better teacher and coach in Jerry Sloan and within a better offensive system. I could be wrong, but I tend to think that some of the numbers that Williams is putting up is a result of the system and Sloan's coaching.
Paul on the other hand is putting up those numbers because individually I think he is a more complete player and more talented than Deron.
The height is definitely an issue, but history tells us that short point guards can be just as successful. Williams is solid with very few weaknesses, but Paul has more upside.
A great point guard or good guard play period will get you deep into the season's tournament/ playoffs regardless of what level you play. There seems to be less risk in taking a guard than a big man. Mistakes were made in passing them up and I would take either one on my team.
While i did say that Williams probably plays for the better teacher, i did not say that Williams plays in a system more condusive to point guard success. In fact, i said the exact opposite. Paul plays on a 3PT shooting juggernaut, making it much easier for him to pile up assists. Williams more or less has to pass the ball in tighter space to his big men, while all Paul needs to do is get the ball to some his outstanding shooters. Again, i haven't watched enough of either of them to confirm what i deduced from the stats, so i could be wrong.
First I like your writing style. Second I see knowledge. I do agree that Paul is superior however I think you may be selling Deron just a tad short since I've heard and read a couple of times that he's not taking any BS from his teammates and demanding control of the court to them. Seems to me he's coming on. Could be wrong, have been before but I wouldn't take him over Paul but I would take him second of all the younger point guards including Tony due to all around skills. I'm a guy who likes his point guards to have passing skills first and then let's go from there. Thanks for posting on my blog.
Last edited by Dusty_Outlaw on November 21st at 3:04 PM.
Paul was thrown into the fire. Williams was not getting as many minutes as Paul his first year. Sloan doesn't like to play rookies. He gave him his chance, but he didn't perform well enough to have him in as much. He is, of course, now performing on that level. Williams is a co-leader on the team, but his recent remarks about losses tell me he is taking charge. He took responsibility for the losses and said that his game was the reason for them. Lets have this discussion again in about 3-5 yrs.
Last edited by SpyrusNViware on November 21st at 11:45 PM.
Sorry, I must have misunderstood. Still, I stand by the comments that Jerry Sloan's system significantly helps Williams rack up those assists. Boozer and Okur particularly make a lot of shots for Williams off the pick-and-roll...just like Malone used to do with Stockton. Not comparing Stockton to Williams, because it's not even close at this point...but you get what I'm saying.
Dusty Outlaw,
Thanks for the props. Love reading your blog myself. Maybe Deron is coming into his own as far as leadership, but I just called that category as I saw it over the last 3 seasons. Really, Paul's potential to get even better is what put him over the top.
well, i can't be impartial on this call as i'm a hornet fan so the call of Paul is a lock, but who cares who's best, both of them are the next Kidd/Nash for years to come and i don't think anybody could pass up or question selecting playes as them, thxs Milwakee and Atlanta for letting this two great PG to come to the west.
