PICKS AND PANS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE 2008-09 NFL FOOTBALL SEASON
Well here we go football fans with a new brand new season, high hopes by fans of every team in the NFL.
Unfortunately most fans know right from the get go their teams are not going any where and even most of those teams that have a chance their fans are going to be disappointed in the end. Only 12 teams will even make it into the playoffs and about eight of those will have very little success in going all the way. Now with that said, whoa, wait a minute! The New York Giants won the Super Bowl last year as a wild card, so maybe there is hope for some of the also-ran to go all the way. Yeah right, but not this year, the Giants win in the Super Bowl was an once in 20 year fluke. Don't look for the Giants to repeat or maybe not even make the playoffs at all. I look for Dallas and Philiadelphia to finish ahead of the Giants in the NFC East with the Redskins tagging up the rear.
In the NFC North, look for the one dimensional Vikings to find a passing game and upset the Packers for the title in that division, with the Lions and the Bears fighting it out to stay out of the cellar.
The NFC South is a total mess with New Orleans coming out on top of Tampa Bay, Carolina and the Falcons. The latter two will be looking just for a way to win. If no team in this division finishes above .500, you and I shouldn't be to surprised.
The NFC West is not much better then the South but Seattle could run away with this division with Arizona trailing in second, followed by the 49ers and the Rams, both will fight it out to stay out of the cellar.
In the AFC East I llke for the Patriots to again dominate, with the fast improving Jets, led by Favre to finish second. I think Buffalo will edge out Miami for the third spot in that division.
In the AFC North, Pittsburgh will take this title with a real disappointing team of last year, the Cincinnati Bengals finishing second. Cleveland could be a contender if their play gets more consistence and the Ravens will finish their customary last.
I pick the Jacksonville Jags to upset the Colts this year in the AFC South and the Texans and Titans to finish behind, but both will create a lot of waves and could help decide who gets the top spot. The AFC South looks to be the toughness and most competitive division in the NFL.
The San Diego Chargers seem to be the darling of the AFC West with a struggling Bronco team fighting it out with the Raiders and the Chiefs to see who gets the higher draft picks.
I had an above average season picking winner last year (.654) and I hope to at least continue that this year.
Now for my picks for the first week of the 2008-09 season and with nothing to go on stat wise, it will be a tuffy:
THURSDAY;
NEW YORK GIANTS -4 (41) OVER WASHINGTON
Why? Because the Giants are at home and Washington has a new coach and are learning a new system. Is that reason enough?
SUNDAY GAMES;
CINCINNATI -1.5 (38) OVER BALTIMORE
Why? Because the Bengals are playing the Ravens. Beyond that, who really cares at this point of the season.
PHILADELPHIA -7.5 (44) OVER ST LOUIS
The Eagles are at home against a not so good Rams team and the Eagles want to show they are a contender. The Rams just want to competitive.
NEW ORLEANS -3.5 (42.5) OVER TAMPA BAY
This will be the first show down game in the NFC South by the top two teams and the winner may be the one to win the division, then maybe its to early to tell.
SEATTLE +1 (39) OVER BUFFALO
Can't figure out why the odds makers make the Bills the favorite, east coast bais? Hmmm, then again maybe Seattle inconsistence play on the road is why.
DETROIT -3 (41) OVER ATLANTA
This game could be a toss up, we will have to wait and see what the new look in Atlanta will be. If its the old look, Detroit easy.
JACKSONVILLE -3 (33.5) OVER TENNESSEE
The Jags could win it all with a few breaks and a game like this might be one of those breaks needed.
NEW YORK JETS -3 (36) OVER MIAMI
I cross my fingers on this one, but with Favre at the helm I will give the Jets the edge.
PITTSBURGH -6.5 (43) OVER HOUSTON
Houston just hasn't played well on the road and this game won't be any different.
SAN DIEGO -9 (42) OVER CAROLINA
Another team who will be in the hunt for the AFC crown and rightly so.
DALLAS -5.5 (49) OVER CLEVELAND
This could be a lot closer than Cowboy fans would like, but I think Dallas will prevail.
NEW ENGLAND -16 (45) OVER KANSAS CITY
This is the biggest point spread of the week and Patriots will not disappoint.
ARIZONA -3 (42) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
Tough call, but if Arizona is to challenge Seattle they better win the games they are expected to.
INDIANAPOLIS -10 (44) OVER CHICAGO
Nothing to add here, could be a lot more than ten.
DOUBLE HEADER ON MNF
GREEN BAY -3 (38) OVER MINNESOTA
Maybe a bad pick, maybe, but the Pakers are at home and they don't seem to lose there very offen and for no other reason.
DENVER -3 (41) OVER OAKLAND
Ugh, I can't think of a worst game for MNF.
Well there are my first week picks, your comments are always welcome, good or bad.
PICKS AND PANS FOR WEEK ONE OF THE 2008-09 NFL FOOTBALL SEASON
Well here we go with the 2008-09 NFL season.
As usual the first week is the hardest to pick the winners, because the preseason is all about who makes the team and replace starters lost to retirement, free agency and/or injury. Most starters from last year either played very little or not at all, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are in the latter group.
Because I am a die hard Seattle Seahawk fan, most of my blogs will favor the Seahawks, whether you like it or not. Seattle rested most of their offensive starters the whole preseason, but played most of the defensive starters for longer periods of time in each preseason game. I was a little disappoointed by defensive picks in the draft because I still think Seattle's defense is way ahead of the offense. Seattle weaknesses were in special teams, offensive line and running back. With the acquisition of both Jones and Duckett and a little consistency by Morris maybe that position has been fixed. We will have to wait and see if this happens. The offensive line over a sixteen game season is my biggest worry. A few injuries and we could have major problems opening holes for these three guys. Special teams is another concern at the moment, I don't think Seattle fans will miss Josh Brown because his kick offs were way to short and were returned over the 30 yard line way to many times. With Coutu and Mare, and it looks like Holmgren has both kickers on the roster, it looks like the kicking game will improve. But I see plenty of holes in the kick off coverage and until something is done about that, long kick off will not be much of an advantage unless it is kicked out of the end zone instead of carried into it.
Well here goes with the 2008-09 season predictions. I will leave the weekly picks for later in the week when I have evaluated who has been cut, important injuries and what the finally line ups will be to start the season. But lets have a drum roll, please.
AFC EAST DIVISION
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
AFC NORTH DIVISION
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
AFC SOUTH DIVISION
Jacksonville jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
AFC WEST DIVISION
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
NFC NORTH DIVISION
Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
NFC EAST DIVISION
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
NFC SOUTH DIVISION
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
NFC WEST DIVISION
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
St Louis Rams
Now we all know at the end of the season some of these teams will be wrong due to injuries and pure bad luck. but if the season goes like I think it should, it will be pretty close. I won't predict the playoffs or the Super Bowl until I know how the season is playing out. I think the odds makers have the PIatriots and Cowboys as the favorites but lest see what happens and revisit this on, let's say week ten or eleven.
Now NFL fans lest have some fun and your comments are always welcome good or bad.
Good luck to your team and I hope we all have a good season.
PICKS AND PANS REVIEW OF THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS
Last week's first round of wild card playoff games went just as I predicted in all four games. The first game on Saturday was between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins with Seattle defense shutting down the Redskins running game and avoiding the big pass play. All the Cinderalla hype of the Eastern press was put to sleep as Seattle whipped the Redskins with easy and now will move on to Green Bay. The second game on Saturday was the show down between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers and it was a repeat of the game earlier this year with Jacksonville winning. A last minute field goal was the different in this game. On Sunday the New York Giants had no trouble beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as Eli Manning picked apart the lack luster Bucs both on the ground and through the air. As always, resting your key players to long after wrapping up the divison had an effect on some teams and it showed up big time in Tampa Bay's play. The later Sunday game was a lot closer than most experts thought it would be as the Tennessee Titans lead the San Diego Chargers at half time, but the Chargers flexed their muscles in the second half and won going away.
I picked all four games in the first round of the playoffs correctly and for the year, including playoff games, I'm now 158 right and 81 wrong. (.662)
This weeks picks are most difficult ,as they always are during the playoffs, as the top teams are playing closer to the same level, but I will give it my best shot.
SEATTLE -7 (401/2) OVER GREEN BAY
First let's look at why the Packers could win this game. The biggest reason is, naturally Brett Favre. The next reason is the game will be played in Green Bay where Seattle has not fared well in recent years. The weather forecast is a chance of snow and a high of 29 game day temperature. None of the above is in Seattle favor as most followers of NFL football will tell you. But remember the Bears/Packers game late this season which was played in the snow in Chicago, the Packers did not fare well, in fact they were blown out by the Bears. So the weather may not be as big a factor as some might make it. Now the reasons that Seattle might win this game. Total offensive is in Seattle favor, total defense is about even. Total pass offensive is slightly in the Packers favor but pass defense is in Seattle favor. Run offense is about even and run defense is in Green Bay's favor (Seattle most likely won't run the ball anyway). Points allowed is even with Green Bay having scored more points than Seattle by about 40. So stat wise the teams are about even. Now the reason I think Seattle will win. Playoff experience! Seattle is a veteran team with a lot of playoff games under their belts and Green Bay except for a couple players, most notable is Favre, is a very young team with a lot of good years ahead of them. But this is not their year. Here is an interesting stat, in the regular season both Hasselbeck and Favre has thrown for 28 touchdowns, but Favre has thrown three more picks than Hasselbeck. Will the Seattle defensive backs has an influence on the out come of this game. Only time will tell. Don't listen to the Eastern hype about this game. Seattle is a much better team than the Eastern press and bloggers gives them credit for. Seattle will play up the the level needed to win 24-17.
NEW ENGLAND -111/2 (51) OVER JACKSONVILLE
New England has the edge in every stat category except rusing offense and that is just slightly in favor of the Jags. Jacksonville had a tough game in Pittsburgh while New England was able to rest the troops. Looking at the stat sheet of last week's game you will notice that the Jags only had 14 first downs, 135 yards rushing and 104 passing and 58 of those rushing yards were by Garrard. Those kind of stats will not be good enough to beat the best team in the NFL who has a defense almost as good as the one the Jaguars faced this past weekend and an offense that is superior to Pittsburgh. Jacksonville is a rushing team and New England is not, so the rushing edge stat is misleading at best. Look for Tom Brady and the rested Patriots to win this game with ease. Let's say 34-17. Remember the Patriots are not as mistake prone as the Steelers, You won't see the Patiots turn the ball over four times.
INDIANAPOLIS -71/2 (471/2) OVER SAN DIEGO
Tennessee shut down LaDainian Tomlinson effectively on Sunday past and their defense almost won the game for them. If the Colts can do the same, well this game is in the bag for Indianapolis. Manning is 100% better quarterback than Rivers ever thought of being and has the stats to back it up. Manning wll not let opportunities pass like the Titans did against San Diego. The Chargers have started off too many games sluggish and the Colts will not let them recover as easily as the Titans did. Look for Indianapolis to put plenty of pressure on Rivers all day long. With the Chargers best reciever knocked out in last week's game it will be tough for San Diego to have any deep threat. Rivers is not a very good quarterback when he is flushed out of the pocket and the Colts will do exactly that. Manning will drive the ball up and down the field all day long in a 29-14 win.
DALLAS -81/2 (581/2) OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
The last game of the day will pit the Cowboys against the Giants. This game, stat wise is very close, to close to have Dallas as an eight or nine point favorite and the Giants having won eight straight on the road. But the Cowboys will win anyway. The only drawback for the Cowboys is whether Owens will play. He was reported limping heavy at practice on Monday. If TO does't play it will put a hold on Dallas' over the top passing game, but I don't think Eli Manning can put three game together without committing turnovers. Look for the Giants to try to run the ball to keep pressure off of Eli. The Cowboys will take advantage of all the breaks and win this game 33-24.
This past week saw five of the eight divisional leaders and two of the wild cards go down to defeat. But I wouldn't read to much into these loses as most of the playoff bound teams rested their key players for the playoffs and none of these games meant any change in their positions in the final standings, although it changed who plays who in two games.
Washington win over Dallas was big for the Redskins as it assured them a spot against Seattle in the first round and eliminated the one dimensional Minnesota Viking who went down in overtime to a so-so Denver team who were able to controll Adrian Peterson and won in the mile high city. Baltimore win against the Steelers didn't save their coaches job as predicted in last weeks column but might have been costly to the Steelers as injuries continue to mount. Tampa Bay losing three out of their last four didn't bode well for their coach as he didn't sound to happy about their chances against the Giants in an after game interview. Speaking of the Giants, they probably played their best game this season in losing effort to the Patriots. The Patriots, whom I predicted would not rest their key players, fought a very determined Giants team before winning and as a result set all the records that will stand for many years to come. But the victory didn't come easily for New England and they had to rally in the second half to complete a spectacular, well deserved undefeated season. Tennessee edged the Colts and with their win got the last wild card in the AFC edging out the Browns, inspite of Cleveland's win over the hapless 49ers. Houston finished the season winning again at home beating Jacksonville and the Atlanta Falcons overcome a very dismal season and upset the Seahawks at home. The rest of the games played on Sunday were of no consequence one way or the other, they all knew they would be watching the playoffs at home.
This last week of the regular season was, as I said in my last Picks and Pans, would be a hard week to predict the scores and it was. Most of the teams in contention did rest their players to one extent or the other and it effected some of the scores as predicted. But I did come up with a 10-6 finish. For the year I finished with 154 right and 81 wrong which comes out to about an average of 10.5 wins for each week I predicted scores.
My picks for the first round of the playoffs are:
Note: From now on I will put the Vegas line in each prediction and will update it daily if required.
ON SATURDAY
SEATTLE -3.5 (40) OVER WASHINGTON
Washington is coming off a win against the Cowboys at home, but don't look for reasons in that game that Washington is suddenly a power house team. Remember the Coweboys didn't play their front line players when the game was on the line and Washngton had to win to even be in the playoffs. Seattle is 7-1 at home and the Skins are only 4-4 on the road. Washington top quarterback is doubtful and even if he did play, how effective would he be? The quarterback position is in Seattle favor as are the wide receivers. Seattle defense has proven it can stop the run and the pass consistently and if Seattle can stop Portis effectively, they should be able to beat the Redskins. On the other hand, Seattle running game has been showing some life and have three backs who can and will carry the ball against the Redskins effectively. Statistically the Seahaws shoud be and are the favorite as they lead in every key statistic both offensively and defensively. Although this will be a close game the Hawks should win by lets say 24-17.
JACKSONVILLE -2 (39) OVER PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville won the previous game in Pittsburgh and will win this game as well. Willie Parker, who is one of the top running backs in the league is out and that makes the Steelers a little too much one dimensionally to be able to win this game. I'm not sure if Roethisberger or Polamalu will play, both were doubtful last week, but since the Steelers were resting their front line players, only time will tell. The Jaguars will run the ball and run run it effectively against one of the top defenses, but has been decimated by injuries late in the season. Depending on the weather this game could be low scoring and close and don't look for the Steelers to go down easily. Jacksonville to win 17-14
SUNDAY GAMES
NEW YORK GIANTS +3 EVEN (391/2) OVER TAMPA BAY
The Giants proved they can play with the best in last weeks game with the New England Patriots and will go into Tampa Bay with all the confidence in the world. Remember the Patriots played Brady and most of their offensive starters the whole game and only pulled out the game late in the fourth quarter. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost three out of the last four games and have seemed to have lost momentum along the way. With Galloway doubtful the Giants have the edge in both receivers and the quarterback position. The Giants are 7-1 on the road this year and will continue to play well. The Giants have the better overall defense and offense statisteic wise so look for the Giants to combine their running and passing game for the win, lets say 24-17.
SAN DIEGO -9 (40) OVER TENNESSEE
The difference in this game, LaDainian Tomlinson! Although Rivers is not that impressive or consistence at quarterback, all he has to do is hand the ball off to Tomlinson to win this game. Well almost! The Chargers have a six game winning streak and the Titans have limped into the playoffs with a sluggish win over the Colts, who rested Manning for most of the game. The Titans offense have struggled all season and have given up almost as many points on defense as they have scored. Look for LaDianian Tomlinson to score a couple times and put the Titans away 34-14.
What is Parity? In the NFL it means every team at the beginning of the season has an equal chance too win the Super Bowl.
Sounds simple doesn't it? Ya right! Tell that to the Miami Dolphins.
What is the cause of Parity, if such a beast exist? Could it be the salary cap? A lack of talent? Free agencies? Could coaching changes by good teams cause them to become mediocre after a good season? Or is it a combination of all the above, or none of the above?
I think its time we forget the notion of parity in the NFL and I will point out why.
To start out, look at New England, as of today they have a 15 game win streak, and don't forget the Miami Dolphins, who are 1-14. No parity there! True, winning streaks out pace losing streaks by only a slim margin. There have been 28 streaks of at least four victories or four losses in 2007, 15 winning and 13 losing. But look at some of the winning streaks, the Patriots lead with 15 straight and Dallas has had streaks of five and seven games. The Colts have had streaks of seven and six games and Green Bay has had two streaks of four and six games. San Diego is finishing the season with five in a row. Long losing streaks by teams such as the Ravens (9) and San Francisco (8) should dispel any notion of parity in the win/lost category. There are just teams that win and teams that don't and overall they are the same teams year after year.
The NFL salary cap is define as the maximum amount that a team may spend on player compensation. The cap is calculated by the curent Collective Bargaining Agreement or CBA and is set to be 59.5% of the total projected league revenue. This number divided by the number of teams determines the amount of the cap, thus $102 million per team. (2006 figures)
Lets now look at the salary cap. One would have to think this would lead to parity. (remember there will be a difference between my figures and the real figures due to my figures are based on the 2006 season, but the difference overall is minor) But the salary cap doesn't cause players to move to teams who need them to fill holes, and not necessarity to teams who can afford them. Make sense? (I will explain this in depth later on when I examining the coaching staffs) Look at it this way, the 49ers picked up a couple free agents and expected great things and a winning season, didn't happen. Seattle on the other hand picked up a couple free agents to shore up their defensive back field and, well the rest is history. Seattle has one of the best pass defenses in the NFC and the reason was the addition of free agents. I could go on team by team, but you get the idea by these two examples.
The salary cap for the NFL is $102 million per team, at least was in 2006. The 2007 salary for every player is not available, (although the cap for the 2007 season is around $109 million) so all figures used here are 2006 figures. Just before the season started every team was under the cap except the Colts and the Redskins which are a few million over. In fact one of the better teams in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers are under the cap the most at $35 million, which means they have a total salary of around $67 million. Go figure! Here are some of the other good teams and the cap, Cowboys $22.6 million under and the Patriots, $16.9 million under. Some of the not so lucky teams such as Miami are under the cap by $6.3 million, which means the Dolphins have a total salary of $95.7 million, almost $30 million more paid in salary than the Packers and $10 million more than the Patriots. So much for money buying championships. The Ravens are $10.6 million under the salary cap and are in the same boat as the Dolphins. So spending money or free agents are not going to guarantee any team success on the field. That should also dispel any notion the salary cap is the cause of parity.
So what does this all show? It shows that spending money doesn't necessaily create a good team or a good record. By the way, Seattle is $17.3 million under the cap. If the talent is needed and is out there, there is plenty of money to go out and get it. I think the problem is the lack of talent available out there on the free market and ownership who are too tight to spend up to the cap level. Why would they? When teams can't sell out and are being blacked out because the fans aren't going to the games. It creates a vicious cycle that takes years and sometimes new ownership to break that cycle and the only ones to suiffer are the fans. High draft picks for bad teams don't guarantee winning seasons, Reggie Bush, Ricky Williams and Matt Leinart are a good example of that.
Well what does lead to a good record? Coaching leads to a good record. Coaches who can get the most out of a player will win the most games. Coaches such as Belichick is the best of the coaches today and John Madden of years passed are prime examples ot this. Yes I know there are other fine coaches out there, but I personally think these two are/or were the best. A top notch front office can also lead to getting the players needed to fill holes in any team, but that won't guarantee success. Team players are the answer and they are the hardest to find. One of the better pick ups was free agent Terrell Owens of the Dallas Cowboys (team player? depend if you like him or not) but will he help Dallas win the Superbowl, time and most likely the Patriots will tell if they can.
Here is an example of coaching changes that caused teams to become stagnate after a couple good years. After the 2004-05 season which the Patroits won their 3rd Superbowl they lost both their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator and haven't been to the Superbowl since. The '85 Bears lost their defensive coordinator and they never make it back in spite of having Ditka, Payton and other great stars. San Diego got off to a slow start this year, and if you look at the coaching changes you may discover the reason. Offensive coach Cam Cameron, who was responsible for an offense who featured LaDainian Tomlinson is now head coach of Miami. Defensive coach Wade Phillips is now head coach of Dallas. Marty Schottenheimer getting fired after going 14-2 is unconscionable to me. But Norv Turner, in my opinion should be coach of the year for getting the Chargers a shot at the big show after having to start the season from scratch and with a completely new coaching staff to boot.
Parity in the NFL, I don't think there is such a beast, at least in the 2007-08 NFL there's not.
This past week the only team to lose in the NFC West was the Rams who were blown out by the Steelers big time. Seattle won easily against a rather poor Ravens team. The 49ers upset the Bucs in San Francisco, which in my opinin, isn't that big of an upset and Arizona derailed the Falcons in overtime after blowing a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Last week the Green Bay Packers were humiliated by the Bears in Chicago. If you remember I almost picked the Bears to upset the Packers but changed my mind at the last minute. The Bills stayed with the Giants and lead going into the 4th quarter, but too many mistakes cost the Bill at the end. I thought the 49ers/Bucs game would be close and it was, but in favor of the 49ers. For the week I was a very respectable 12-4 and for the year I am 144-75.
My picks for week 17 are:
Note: Before I make my picks please remember most playoff teams will rest their players, some early on and some later, so this week's picks are the most difficult of the season for that reason. The two toughest weeks to pick winners are the first and the last, in fact because of that reason I skipped the first week of the season completely.
SATURDAY - NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
The question here is whether the Patriots will rest their front line players or will they go for the record? I think they will play their front line players at least until the game is in hand. Maybe deep into the third quarter. Don't let the hype fool you, Belichick and all the players want all the records, Pats will win on the road 28-17 to complete an undefeated season.
SEATTLE OVER ATLANTA
This is a meaningless game for the Seahawks and knowing Holmgren 'let them off the hook' style, I dread this game with a passion. Holmgren teams play down to the the level of the bad teams and Atlanta is a bad team. But look for the Hawks to exploit the mistakes of the Falcons and squeak out a win, lets say 21-13.
GREEN BAY OVER DETROIT
Detroit was just barely able to beat a bad Kansas City team last week while the Packers were humiliated by a suspect Bears team. You may think the Packers would have the advantage playing in Green Bay with winter well set in, but last weeks lost in Chicago was also wintery weather and they still lost and lost badly. But look for home heating and home cooking to be in the Packers favor and they win 24-10.
CINCINNATI OVER MIAMI
No, the Dolphins will not finish the season with their second win. Cincinnati willl squeak out the win in Miami 24-20.
CHICAGO OVER NEW ORLEANS
The Saints will go into cold, windy and unfriendly Chicago and leave the windy city with a bad taste and a disappointing season as the Bears will win in a low scoring battle of frozen football players and fans. Bears 17-14. The forecast? 30 degrees and snow which doesn't favor the warm weather Saints.
JACKSONVILLE OVER HOUSTON
Houston plays well at home, but the Jaguars want to go into the playoffs with momentum and will not rest any of their players until the game is well in hand. Jags 27-19.
PHILADELPHIA OVER BUFFALO
This may be the last game for McNabb in Philadelphia and again it may not. If Donovan can have an impressive game he will most likely be back. Wins have a way of shutting up critics and win the Eagles will, 24-20.
TAMPA BAY OVER CAROLINA
Here's news for you, the Vegas odds makers have the Panthers a three point favorite. TB will not rest their players for the playoffs. They are not good enough to be able to rest anyone as shown by losing two of the last three, and both loses to bottom feeders. But the Bucs are at home where they play fairly well and will win over another, well maybe not a bottom feeder, but a poor team for sure 17-14.
CLEVELAND OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Browns are fighting for their playoff lives, and can't afford to rest their front line players against a surging 49ers. Playing at home they will win 24-17.
WASHINGTON OVER DALLAS
I think the Dallas Cowboys will rest some of their players and the Redskins will take advantage as they still have a chance for the playoffs if they win. In fact if they win they are in the playoffs. Washington wins in a mild upset at home, 21-20.
PITTSBURGH OVER BALTIMORE
The once proud Ravens are a team in disarray and the Steelers will pounce on them. Look for coaching changes in Baltimore before next season. Steelers win easily 24-13.
SAN DIEGO OVER OAKLAND
The Chargers are anotheer team who may rest some of their players, but against the Raiders it won't make much difference. San Diego will win in Oakland, 21-17.
MINNESOTA OVER DENVER
Look for a possibe coaching change in the Mile High city next year. Whether it is through retirement or firing, it will happen. Fans in Denver are used to winning and that is not happening as Denver has suffered though the worst drought in recent memory and Minnesota is still alive, if Washington loses and they pull out a win. The Vikings win in Denver but close, 24-10.
ARIZONA OVER ST LOUIS
Arizona and St Louis? The only thing this game will accomplish is if the Rams lose they will get a higher draft pick. The Rams will lose and get their higher draft pick. Cardinals win at home, 24-17.
NEW YORK JETS OVER KANSAS CITY
Come on sports fans, who care who wins between these two teams? The 3-12 Jets will beat the 4-11 Chiefs in the rain/snow of New Jersey, 19-14.
SNF - INDIANAPOLIS OVER TENNESSEE
Manning verus Young, Manning wins hands down. Also the Colts win hands down 34-17.
Again I will combine my Pans (week 15) and Picks for week 16 due to a the game being played tonight.
The NFC West continues to struggle going into the second to the last week of the season.
Seattle was upset by the Carolina Panthers who had only won one game at home all season and quite frankly are not a very good football team without Jake Delhomme. The Seahawks blew a chance to prove they belong with the elite teams of the NFL by losing this game. Carolina's defense shut down the Hawks most of the day or was it the Hawks shut down themselves by poor play calling and/or poor execution. If you saw the game, I will let you decide.
Arizona Cardinals were no match for the Saints and went down to defeat in New Orleans. Drew Brees' 87% pass completions proved more than the Cards defense could over come. Arizona's offense continues to impress in a losing cause with the aging Curt Warner at the helm.
San Francisco upset win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals was the only win by the West this past week. The 49ers are on their 4th or 5th quarterback this season. Maybe they finally have found one they can stick with or at least until he gets hurt. The 49ers seem to have a problem protecting their quarterbacks.
The Rams were dismantled by the Green Bay Packers, although the game was close until the second half when Favre put the game away by wearing down the Rams defense.
This past week had a few of the playoff teams go down to defeat and resulted in four of my missed picks. Time to party in South Florida, Miami won for the first time this year. Pittsburgh losing to the Jaguars was not a complete surprise and the game did go down to the final quarter before it was decided. I think the two biggest upsets were the Eagles beating the Cowboys in Dallas and the Skins beating the Giants in New York.
For the week I was 10-6, which is about my average and for the year I'm 132-71.
Week 16 picks are as follows:
THURSDAY - PITTSBURGH OVER ST LOUIS
Pittsburgh will be fighting for their divisional title lives going into this game, with the Browns breathing down their necks, the Steelers will go into St Louis and win 24-17.
SATURDAY - DALLAS OVER CAROLINA
Dallas will not go into Carolina and lose to an injury ridden team like Seattle did. Romo, if his injured thumb is okay will lead the Cowboys to victory, but if some backup quarterback plays the Cowboys will still win, 31-13.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
CINCINNATI OVER CLEVELAND
I think the string has run out on the Browns title hopes and playing in Cincinnati against a team who has a better overall offense and a better overall defense, the Browns will fall to the Bengals 21-10.
DETROIT OVER KANSAS CITY
The string of loses by the Lions will end this week at home, but they better hold down their turnovers or it could go the other way. Kansas City has no running game and in fact is not much of an offensive threat even to the Lions. Detroit wins 24-14.
INDIANAPOLIS OVER HOUSTON
The Colts have had a lot of injuries this year and seem to be getting their players back at the right time. All this does is strengthen the Colts in their quest to repeat as Super champion. Whether they can derail the train, also known as the New England Patriots, will have to be seen. Houston has been playing better lately but not good enough to win on the road in Indianapolis, Colts win 33-14.
GREEN BAY OVER CHICAGO
I almost picked the Bears to upset the Packers, but the Favre factor made me decide to stick with the Packers. The bears defense has shown some consistence lately, but Green Bay has too many weapons for the Bears to handle. Packers win in Chicago but it will be close, 24-20.
BUFFALO OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
The least impressive team in the playoff picture at the moment, is the New York Giants. Offensively they are more down than up. Their turnovers are killing any chance they have advancing past the first round in the playoffs. The Bills continue to show improvement despite the shutout lost to the Browns in a driving snow strom. The Bills will beat the Giants at home, 21-13.
JACKSONVILLE OVER OAKLAND
Oakland continues to be a very scrappy team and will give the Jags all they can handle with their defense just as the Colts found out last week. But Jacksonville has shown a lot of offense of late and will beat the Raiders at home 31-21.
TAMPA BAY OVER SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco may have found a qurterback, wait I think I said that three or four times already this year. San Francisco's winning streak will end at one. The Bucs and Garcia will win in SF 24-17. But look for a closer game than some of the so-called experts predict.
ARIZONA OVER ATLANTA
Atlanta continues their nose dive this week in Glanedale, Arizona. The Cardinals are a 10-point favorite in Vegas. I can't remember anytime the Cards were a 10-point favorite against anyone. But I agree with the odds makers this time and 10 points sounds about right. Arizona wins 24-14.
PHILADELPHIA OVER NEW ORLEANS
McNabb looked sharp against the Cowboys and will continue to come back from injuries to beat the Saints this week. Don't look for Brees to complete 87% of his passes against the Eagles. Philadelphia wins 24-20.
NEW ENGLAND OVER MIAMI
Wow, the Dolphins finally won a game. But don't look for the Dolphins to go into New England, who are a 22-point favorite, and improve on the 2007 winning streak of one. This isn't tropical South Florida and the Patriots will crush Miami in the cold weather with ease, 34-10.
SEATTLE OVER BALTIMORE
It scares me when Holmgrem makes the statement that Seattle will continue to run the ball. Run the ball, with whom? Seattle has no running game, zero. Holmgrem, stick with what works, pass the ball 90% of the time. Whew! The Ravens embarrassed themselves, losing to the Dolphins and will lose to the Seahawks in Seattle, 28-13.
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
The Jets defense looked good against the Patriots last week but the Jets offense continues to struggle scoring points, look for the same results in Tennessee as the Titans win 24-13.
SNF - MINNESOTA OVER WASHINGTON
Neither team look impressive this past week. Both played very sloppily and were lucky to come away with wins. But this game could be very interesting due to the fact if washington upsets the Vikings they would be tied with the Vikings and the wild card would be decided in the last week of the season. Look for the Vikings to clinch the last wild card position by winning at home in a hard fought game, 24-21.
MNF - SAN DIEGO OVER DENVER
Look for San Diego and LaDainian Tomlinson to continue to roll into the playoffs. This week it will be over the up and down Broncos. Chargers to win with ease in San Diego 28-13.
As I watched and listened to the SNF game last night, I heard John Madden say something that made my ears perk up. He said, 'There are playoff teams and there are teams that make the playoffs.'
Wow, but this is so true! During my morning walk today I thought about John's comment and ran the teams in this year's playoffs, including some that may or may not get in, through my mind and came to the same conclusion. Here is what I think who are in fact the playoff teams and who are the teams who are just in the playoffs. Not necessarily in order of best to worst.
First of the AFC playoff teams are of course the New England Patriots, who are head and shoulders above all the rest and no one should dispute the fact the Patriots are the best of the best this year and a 14-0 record proves my point. Even if the Patriots lose a game in the next two weeks, they will still be the best team in the NFL in my opinion.
Second playoff team are the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are a playoff team as shown week in and week out this season and winning 12 games each season for five years running proves it. Besides they must be considered a playoff team until someone dethrones them.
The third playoff team in the AFC are the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite stumbling twice against the Colts, the Jaguars have the third best record in the AFC and with their win over the tough Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh proved they are a playoff team to contend with.
Bring up the rear of the AFC playoff teams, is the San Diego Chargers. Off to slow start this year the Chargers with their nine and five record will be a contender until one of the three the teams above beats them. The Chargers are a border line playoff team, but in my opinion has a chance to get to the big show.
Teams who made the playoffs but aren't playoff teams are Pittsburgh, Cleveland (who is tied with the Steelers for the AFC North) and Tennessee, who still has a shot at the playoffs, even if a long shot.
All the other AFC teams are also runs and can't be considered, because quite frankly they are not in the class of the playoff teams or of teams who made the playoffs.
The NFC playoff teams are lead by the Dallas Cowboys. In spite of their loss to the Eagles last night they still lead the NFC teams because of their win over the Green Bay Packers. There is some doubt whether the Cowboys are the best in the Conference of late, but until they play for the conference championship and that someone beats them, in my opinion they are the best.
Second is those Green Bay Packers lead by Brett Favre who has proven game after game this year, they belong with the other playoff teams and if some how the NFC championship game was to be played in a cold wintery Green Bay, I would give them the edge, but if the game was played today in Dallas, I will give the Cowboys the edge.
I hate to say this but Green Bay and Dallas are the only playoff teams in the NFC. The rest are teams who are just in the playoffs. Tampa Bay, Seattle, the New York Giants and the Minnesota Vikings are teams that with a bad break or two could have missed the playoffs all together. I mustn't leave out the New Orleans Saints or the Washington Redskins who still have a chance if the Minnesota Viking should stumble. But a break of two by any of the above-mentioned teams won't make any difference, even if the breaks goes in their favor, they are still teams that have just made the playoffs. To be honest with my readers, not a playoff team among them.
The rest of the NFC teams are also runs and can't be considered because they don't deserve to be in the playoffs at all and/or aren't good enough to challenge the teams above them.
Yes John Madden is right. 'There are playoff teams and there are teams that make the playoff.'
Back to business as usual for the Western division of the NFC as three of the teams went down to defeat and none of the three games were even close. The San Francisco 49ers continue their downward spiral and is destined to remain in the cellar in the division for the remainder of the season. A Meaningless touchdown in the second half was all the offense the 49ers could muster and what little they did show was offset by five turnover. Defensively the 49ers became one of the few teams able to shut down Adrian Perterson, but with another quarterback biting the dust, it seemed to me the 49ers were basically just going thru the motions. I hope the New England Patriots like the high first round pick received from the 49ers. The lost of that pick will hurt the 49ers more than it will help the Patriots which doesn't really need more help.
The Seattle Seahawks ripped the Arizona Cardinals and won out right the NFC West title. The Hawks showed their dominance over the Cardinals from the first quarter on by jumping off to a 24-0 lead before Arizona scored just before half. Five picks by Seattle, three by Trufant, was the downfall of Warner and the Cardinals. Again the special teams play shows the only weakness in the Seattle game at this time.
The Rams should have won this game but couldn't sustain any drives until the third quarter when they scored their lone touchdown. The Rams could only muster 10 first downs against a suspect Bengal's team.
I missed my upset of the week when San Diego pulled out the win in Tennessee by beating the Titans in overtime. Tampa Bay losing to Houston was a mild upset and was a set back for the Bucs who were hoping to clinch their divisional title. A surprise in Philadelphia as the Giants came away with the win, and what was really surprising was no interceptions by either quarterback. For the week I was 12-4 and for the year I'm standing at 122-65.
My picks for week 15 are as follows:
THURSDAY - HOUSTON OVER DENVER
Houston at home has played their best football as shown by last weeks upset of Tampa Bay. The Denver Broncos are a hard team to figure, up one week and down the next, but this week will be a down week as the Texans win 24-20 at home.
SATURDAY - CINCINNATI OVER SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati is my pick for not meeting the preseason expectation hype, but they are playing the 49ers who have lost another quarterback to injury. The 49ers just have not been able to muster an offense this season with any quarterback and it shows by their scoring only 13 points a game, lowest in the NFL. Thats 332 points less than New England. Bengal's to bounce the 49ers 31-13.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
TENNESSEE OVER KANSAS CITY
Kansas City's offensive woes continue without a running back of any caliber, 17 rushes for 16 yards as displayed in last weeks game is not going to win many games in this league. Nor is seven first downs, Tennessee's defense will stifle the Chief's for a 28-10 win.
BALTIMORE OVER MIAMI
For god's sake, it's the winless Miami Dolphins! Baltimore who is on the brink of being delegated to the cellar in the AFC North will beat the worst team in all the NFL. But it will be close, Ravens 24-20.
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
New England is a 24 point favorite and how can anyone disagree? I can't and won't! The best team in the NFL will humiliate one of the worst 40-14.
CLEVELAND OVER BUFFALO
Buffalo is still in the hunt for a wild card and Cleveland is one of those teams in front of them. The Bills are playing better than most people thought they could. But Cleveland still has a chance to overtake the Steelers for the divisional title. Don't look for the Browns to overlook the Bills at home and will win 27-17.
SEATTLE OVER CAROLINA
Seattle has the 12th best total offense and the 10th best defense in all of the NFL. The Panthers are 1-5 at home this season and have thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes. The Hawks will put pressure on some old guy named Testaverde and the Panthers turnovers will be their downfall. Seattle, will be out to prove they belong with the leagues elite teams , wins 28-17.
NEW ORLEANS OVER ARIZONA
I'm taking the Saints only because they are a home. The Cardinals were too mistake prone last week and the Saints were playing a hapless Falcon team. So combining these two criteria and I will pick the Saints, but only because they are at home, New Orleans 24-20.
TAMPA BAY OVER ATLANTA
Atlanta has basically folded their tent and will play out the season just like they did the last two weeks and in a lackluster fashion to boot. Tampa Bay after a disappointing lost to Houston will rebound and crush the Falcons 24-10.
GREEN BAY OVER ST LOUIS
Green Bay is on a collision course for the NFC title game with the Dallas Cowboys. Don't look for the pathetic Rams to be anymore than a bump in that road. Packers beat the Rams in St Louis with ease 34-14.
PITTSBURGH OVERE JACKSONVILLE
This is tough game to call. Jacksonville has the wild card wrapped up, but Cleveland is breathing down the Steelers necks again and a Pittsburgh lost and a Browns win would bring it down to the head and head tie breaker. Pittsburgh has more to lose than Jacksonville, so the Steelers in a dog fight and at home will win 28-27.
INDIANAPOLIS OVER OAKLAND
Oakland can be a scrappy team at times, but this won't be their time as the Colts and Peyton Manning show the west coast fans how the passing game is really played, Colts will prevail 34-17.
SAN DIEGO OVER DETROIT
The odds makers make the Chargers an eleven point favorite, but in my humble opinion that is too many by about five. Look for Tomlinson to run the ball all day and the Chargers at the end of the day will be on top 27-21.
DALLAS OVER PHILADELPHIA
Who going to quarterback the Eagles? Doesn't matter as Romo and TO will fly by the Eagles at home big, 34-17.
SNF - NEW YORK GIANTS OVER WASHINGTON
New York has a lock on the wild card and will only start fine tuning their game against the Skins. Washington showed some hope as they beat the Bears a week ago on the Thursday Night game, but the Giants and Eli, if they can hold down the turnovers, will win this game at home 24-10.
MNF - MINNESOTA OVER CHICAGO
Chicago saw their season end a couple weeks ago up in Seattle and the Viking will just put another nail in their disappointing season. The Bears just didn't live up to their Super Bowl year hype. The Vikings on the other hand will try to maintain their lead for the wild card. Vikings over the Bears 27-17.
Another short week as we have a game tonight between Chicago and the Redskins, so I will put my Pans for week 13 and Picks for week 14 together again.
This past Sunday we saw two teams in the NFC West eliminated from a divisional title and for all practical purposes any hope for the playoffs.
The Seahawks put the Eagles away with some excellence defense in the clutch as Lofa Tatupu (my player of the game) intercepted Freeley, the Eagles quarterback three times, with the last one coming as time was running out and the Eagles on the verge of scoring the winning touchdown. The Eagles played even up with the Hawks the whole game as both teams traded scores for the first three quarters, but Seattle defense shut down the Eagles when the game was on the line. The Rams overpowered the Atlanta Falcons on their home field by jumping out to a 21-point lead in the first half and held on for the win. Jackson who gained almost 100 yards and Frerotti 23-35 and 311 yards led the Rams to victory. Arizona ruled the day in Glendale against the high-flying Browns by shutting down Cleveland's offense and creating four turnovers to hold off the Browns. Edgerrin James gained 114 yards on the ground while Warner, short of 400 yards the week before, was effective. Three of the Browns turnovers were converted into touchdowns for the Cardinals. The mistake prone San Francisco 49ers were crushed by the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte as the Panthers won for the first time at home in almost a year. The 49ers turned the ball over six times in defeat.
Last week's games were up and down for me but I managed to squeak out 10 winners, but missed on some games I didn't see coming. Buffalo win over the Redskins on a last second field goal wasn't really unexpected as the Skins were smarting over the lost of Taylor. My upset of the week didn't bear out as the Colts continue to roll. Whoa, the Jets really rolled over the hapless Dolphins, not sure if the Miami will see the win column this year. What has gotten into the Raiders of late, the Broncos were never in the game as Oakland scored a season high against Denver? For the year I'm now 110-61. Let's see if I can do better starting with tonights game.
My picks for week 14 are as follows:
WASHINGTON OVER CHICAGO
Both teams are 5-7 and are heading no where. Because the Redskins are at home and should be over the death of Taylor, at least somewhat, and hopefully are a little PO over the lost to Buffalo last week and facing a so-so Bears offense, I will go with the Skins 24-17.
ST LOUIS OVER CINCINNATI
Cincinnati continues to struggle scoring points and the Rams have seemed to have found their rhythm by winning three out of the last four. The Rams win on the road 28-21.
DALLAS OVER DETROIT
The Cowboys continue their quest for the NFC title and the Lions is a team on the decline as they seem to be every year at this time. Romo and TO pound the Lions 34-13.
GREEN BAY OVER OAKLAND
Although the Raiders seem to have found some wins of late, they will run up against a good Packers team in Green Bay, Bret Favre will feast on the Raiders defense this week 35-14.
BUFFALO OVER MIAMI
Miami showed absolutely no heart in last weeks lost to the Jets. They pulled the rug out and just went through the motions, look for more of the same this weekend. Buffalo 24-10.
TAMPA BAY OVER HOUSTON
Tampa Bay's defense verus Houston offense. The Texans play well at home but the Bucs are at the top of their game right now and it didn't seem to matter if the Bucs top quarterback went down last week, they cannot be stopped by the Texans. Bucs 20-17.
TENNESSEE OVER SAN DIEGO
This is my upset of the week. San Diego has almost wrapped up their divisional title and will be looking past the Titans. Look for the Titans to win a close game at home, 21-20.
JACKSONVILLE OVER CAROLINA
Jacksonville has almost wrapped up a wild card and with a win at home against the Panthers they will. Look for them to win convincingly 34-17.
PHILAEDELPHIA OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
If Feeley can hold down his turnovers, the Eagles should beat the up and down Giants. In fact this game could be the battle of turnovers as Manning is about even par with Feeley. I haven't heard the status of McNabb yet but I'm not sure it will make a difference. This game will depend on consistent play and the Eagles show more at this time, at home the Eagles win 24-17.
SEATTLE OVER ARIZONA
On the way to the playoffs, the Seahawks, who are on a roll both on the road and at home of late should clinch the divisional title in this game. Don't look for the Cardinals to derail the Hawks as Seattle's pass defense will stop Warner. Why? Because at press time, all three of Arizona's aging WR are doubtful for the game. Look for the Hawks to put the pressure on the aging quarterback and the Cardinals defense all day. Seattle to elimninate the Cardinals from the playoffs 34-17.
MINNESOTA OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Vikings still have hope of making the playoffs and San Francisco is wondering what hit them. Well this week, it will be the high scoring Vikings taking apart what is left of the lowly 49ers 34-10. I'm beginning to wonder if maybe Dilfer is color blind.
NEW ENGLAND OVER PITTSBURGH
This is a tough call as the Patriots have been in limbo of late. Last Monday's escape against the Raven was by pure luck. Well maybe not pure luck, but I bet a few New England fans were rubbing their rabbit foot when the game came down to the last play of the game ending on the Pats two yard line. But the Pats are at home and with the wind still at their back to complete a unbeaten season, will beat the Steelers 34-21.
CLEVELAND OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
The Jets crushed the Dolphins last week in a surprise offensive show. But don't look for the Jets to out score the Browns who have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Cleveland goes into New York and comes away with a 35-17 win.
DENVER OVER KANSAS CITY
I can't figure out this Denver team no matteer how I analyze them. When they have a chance to make the playoffs and they lose to teams who are going no where, well what now? But hey are playing a team this week who is hurting so badly, I wonder if they can win another game this season. Denver at home 17-10 in the cold weather.
INDIANAPOLIS OVER BALTIMORE
The Colts are starting to get part of their walking wounded back and Manning is still throwing touchdown bombs with ease. Baltimore lost a heart breaker to New England this past Monday and may lose another Sunday night to Indianaplois, 28-24.
MNF - NEW ORLEANS OVER ATLANTA
New Orleans has fallen on hard times of late, but Atlanta has been on hard times the whole season. This game is not on my must watch list. Saints in a squeaker 21-17. Where is that TV Guide?
