Week six and already some teams have eliminated themselves. A couple of the worst teams eliminated themselves after the first kickoff of their first game of the season, and I will name, names.
Let's start with St Louis. The Rams are the worst of the worst and prove it week after week. The coaching change in St Louis will have no effect on the rest of the Ram's season. Close behind are the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals. A whopping 0-17 for those four sorry teams. Houston has lost control of themselves and any chance they had with their latest lost at home to the Colts. Not so much the lost but the way they lost. The Bengals and Lions haven't had any control of themselves and will continue to lose, home and away.
Kansas City had their season high against the Bronco and don't look for anything consistent out of them the rest of the season. Oakland and Cleveland have played themselves out of any possible chance to win a playoff spot and this is only after five weeks. Seattle looks like a Pop Warner football team at times and Minnesota is close behind. If the Vikings can't seem to figure it out why they can't win a playoff spot with only a running game, what can I say
Philadelphia is in too tough of a division to advance and Green Bay seems to be going in the wrong direction since they had a quarterback change as are Jacksonville and the Chargers. Although I won't count the Jaguars, Chargers and the Packers out as yet, they better play one heck of a lot more consistently they have shown so far this season.
Seattle is another team who, right now, are terrible, however still have a chance to win their division because of the weak teams that they will play against within their division. They are only one and a half game out of first place with two games to play against the Cardinals. Seattle seems to have a problem putting together a game plan and if they have one the coaching staff doesn't seem to tell the players what it is. I think, and I have said this before, when Seattle announced a coaching change for next season, that the Hawks made a big mistake making Mora their future head coach and then letting Jim Zorn slip away.
Let's look at this and these teams in a different light. Of the eleven teams I have picked out as having little chance to win a playoff spot, those eleven teams have a combined win total of ten wins, (10-39). If you take out the Eagles, Vikings and Packers out of that mix, the remaining eight teams have a grand total of four wins (4-30). Need I say more.
Last week I ran my overall record to 45-29 and using the point spread I use for every game, I am 54-20 (.730) for the season.
Let's get down and dirty with my picks for this week.
ATLANTA +3 (43) OVER CHICAGO
This game is against the grain and its my upset of the week. I pick the Falcons to win at home. Why? I think Atlanta's quarterback is an up and coming star and the Bears quarterback is just an ordinary run of the mill quarterback. Besides, the Falcons are at home. Atlanta 24-20.
MIAMI +3 (45) OVER HOUSTON
The Texans have to be still in shell shock over the melt down last week, Miami is playing too well and will beat the Texans using their defense, 27-17.
INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 (37) OVER BALTIMORE
The come from behind win last week will energize the Colts and Baltimore's offense hasn't been showing up much lately. Defensively the two teams are a good match up but the Colts are at home, Indianapolis 20-17.
MINNESOTA -13 (45) OVER DETROIT
The Vikings will finally play someone they can run over and the run is all they got, but it will be enough to beat the lowly Lions 31-14.
NEW ORLEANS -8 (47) OVER OAKLAND
Brees is on top of his game as is Bush, and the pass happy Saints will fly by the Raiders. The Saints will just have to play smarter than last week. New Orleans 28-20.
NEW YORK JETS -6 (45) OVER CINCINNATI
A potential shoot out, however the Jets with Favre will do all the shooting , Jets at home 24-10.
TAMPA BAY -1.5 (37) OVER CAROLINA
This game could go into overtime. It is a classic toss up. Being the Bucs are at home I will give them the nod, 20-17 OT.
WASHINGTON -13 (44) OVER ST LOUIS
Not much doubt in this one, Jim Zorn's Skins will crush the helpless Rams 34-10.
DENVER -3.5 (49) OVER JACKSONVILLE
This is a tough game to pick, but I will take the Broncos to win in a high scoring, no holds bared, Katie bar the door, old fashion shoot out. If you like old style AFL type football this is the game to watch, Denver at home 28-21.
DALLAS -5.5 (50) OVER ARIZONA
This will be tougher than the Cowboys think, but Dallas will air it out and the Cardinals will not have enough answers to stop TO and the Dallas attack. Dallas in a high scoring game, but most of it will be on the Cowboys side, 30-20.
PHILADELPHIA -5 (43) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
Defensively I don't think the 49ers can keep up with the Eagles. The 49ers have allowed a pot full of sacks this season and the Eagles are geared defensively to rush the quarterback and this week will be all Eagles, 28-14.
SEATTLE -2.5 (46) OVER GREEN BAY
Both teams are in a flunk. I almost picked the Packers because of the Pop Warner type football the Hawks displayed last week in the Big Apple. But the Packers can't even win at home, so the Hawks will win this one and get back into the hunt, 24-21. But it won't be easy.
SNF
SAN DIEGO -6 (45) OVER NEW ENGLAND
My head tells me the Chargers are done for the year, however remember the Chargers were in this same position last year. The Patriots continues to struggle, but somehow manages to win. The string will run out this week on SNF. Chargers will win at home 24-21.
MNF
NEW YORK GIANTS -8 (43) OVER CLEVELAND
Get real, the Browns......Giants win with room to spare, 28-14.
Well here we go into week five of the 2008-09 NFL football season. Last week we had, as we have every week, upsets and some games that weren't so surprising. Kansas City beating Denver and Washington beating Dallas were, in my opinion, major upsets. Chicago beating the Eagles was a mild upset but not totally surprising. I called both the Bengals/Browns and the Packers/Bucs game to be close and they were, however not the way I predicted. I picked the Steelers to win a close game and they did. I said the Jets/Cardinals game would be very high scoring, and it was, so on and so on.
Injuries continue to be a bugaboo for most teams and some will be critical in the up-coming weeks. Even some suspensions will have a impact on some top teams. In Dallas, right on cue with a Cowboys loss, TO has his mid-season blow-up, and only time will tell if it will have any effect on the Cowboys. But hey, that's football and all teams have to deal with it one way or the other.
There were coaching changes in both St Louis and Oakland. Don't look for for anything different in those two cities. Both teams started their game on Sunday strong but as we have come accustom to they faded and were firmly beaten.While I'm at it, look for a few more coaching changes to come in other cities, Cincinnati comes to mind right off.
Last week wasn't one of my finest, but 8-5 under the circumstances wasn't that bad. For the season I am still over .650 and 39-21 overall. I promise I will try to do better this week.
Lets get started with week five's predictions.
BALTIMORE +3 (34) OVER TENNESSEE
I'm picking the Ravens in a mild upset this week. Baltimore will have to pick up their offense, but their defense will win this game at home. Terry Collins age will catch up to him and the Titans. Ravens 17-16.
CAROLINA -9.5 (38.5) OVER KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs had their game last week and the Panthers will continue to roll. Carolina with ease 28-10.
CHICAGO -3.5 (44.5) OVER DETROIT
The Lions have no running game and the Bears will focus on Kitna and will win going away, but not in a romp as the Lions will put up a good fight for about three quarters. Bears 27-17.
GREEN BAY -no line- OVER ATLANTA
Look for the Packers to rebound against the Falcons. After the last two weeks the Packers will be out to prove they are contenders. If they can't win this one, well, you figure it out. Green Bay in a cake walk, 28-10.
HOUSTON +3 (47) OVER INDIANAPOLIS
Houston always seems to play well at home and the ####ed up Colts will limp out of Houston with more problems then when they arrived, in a high scoring game, Texans 27-20.
SAN DIEGO -6.5 (45) OVER MIAMI
Too much LT and Rivers. The Dolphins had their season's high with a win at NE and now its time for reality to check in. Chargers win but close, 24-21.
NEW YORK GIANTS -7 (43.5) OVER SEATTLE
The Giants will be in for a fall soon, but not this week. Seattle will have to prove they have a consistence passing game and defend against the pass, but not this week as the Giants win 24-20.
PHILADELPHIA -6 (42.5) OVER WASHINGTON
The Skins have shown they belong, at least for a while. The Eagle's defense will run over the Skins, 27-14. However my hat is off to Jim Zorn for doing a fine coachiing job so far and is heads and shoulders over other coaches for 'Coach of the Year' award after four games that is.
DENVER -3.5 (48) OVER TAMPA BAY
Don't look for Griese to carry the Bucs in mile high territory. The Broncos will bounce back from an embarrassing loss last week to bury the Bucs, 27-21.
BUFFALO +1 (44.5) OVER ARIZONA
This game willl be a toss up and a possible shoot out. But Warner and the Cardinals are prone to turnoveers and this will be the key to the game. Bills win a close game, 24-21.
DALLAS -17 (44) OVER CINCINNATI
You got to be kidding, after the Cowboys get beat by the Redskins, they get a team like the Bengals to kick around on Sunday? I hope this game is blacked out in Cincinnati, Cowboys 34-10 in spite of TO's mouth.
NEW ENGLAND -3 (41.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Patriots are hurting at the quarterback position, but they will have enough to take the 49ers to the bank. The 49ers prize quarterback has shown his weaknesses and the Pats will pound them for a 24-15 win.
SNF
JACKSONVILLE -4 (36) OVER PITTSBURGH
This will be the show down for two hope-to-be also rans. It may also be a preview of the AFC wild card game. I will take Jacksonville in a low scoring close game, 19-17.
MNF
NEW ORLENAS -3 (46.5) OVER MINNESOTA
The Vikings continue to struggle with passing the ball, and teams have taken advantage of that and controlled Peterson and the Vikings ground game, Look for Brees to roll up and pass over the Vikings 30-17.
Well that my picks for this week and I got a feeling that some of these games will be decided by tournovers and the kicking game.
Entering week four, the first week of open dates, (well, except for the game that was washed away by a storm in Texas) most of the teams are hurting due to injuries. Some teams like Seattle will really benefit from the week off and should enter into the Giants game healthy. I said healthy not necessarily ready. Others like the Patriots, who seem on the decline in spite of injuries, the week off won't make that much difference. Injuries have played a major part so far in the number of win and loses. The top teams a year ago are moving more toward the middle and the lower teams last year are moving up. It makes for a very interesteing season to see who moves up or down in the standings.
Last week I hit 12 of 16 of my predictions correctly. For the season after three weeks I'm 31-16 and .660. The Bears OT loss and the Patriots loss was my biggest missed games, also it didn't help when I picked Green Bay to upset the Cowboys, should have know better.
Well lets get started with the first bye weeks predictions, week four, a work in progress.
CINCINNATI -3.5 (44.5) OVER CLEVELAND
I think the Browns know its all over for the year. The Bengals showed a little spark last week against the Giants. I don't know if that means the Bengals are that improved or the weaknesses of the Giants are starting to show. Anyway, in a toss up the Bengals 23-21.
JACKSONVILLE -7.5 (42.5) OVER HOUSTON
Another road game for the Texans and another road loss for the Texans. Jacksonville wins a big one on the road last week and will win a big one at home this week, Jaguars 23-21.
CAROLINA -7 (39.5) OVER ATLANTA
Atlanta isn't facing either KC or Detroit (their two wins) this week and Carolina will remind them of that fact. The Falcons will have a rude awakening on Carolina's home field, 24.14.
NEW YORK JETS -1.5 (45) OVER ARIZONA
Another toss up and the home team will win and that is about the only reason I can think of. Two of the oldest quarterbacks in the NFL will face off in this one, the better of those two will come out on top where defense will go out the window, Jets 24.21.
TENNESSEE -3 (36) OVER MINNESOTA
Speaking of old quarterbacks.....Terry Collins and Gus Frerotte! It seems like old quarterback get together week. The Vikings lack any kind of passing game and the Titans will zero in on their running. so I will pick the oldie at home and this is the Titans of course, 21-14.
GREEN BAY +1 (42.5) OVER TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay isn't Dallas, not even close and neither is GB, Chicago. Look for the Pack to regain their playoff form in this one. Griese (another oldie) arm will be worn out for the rest of the season if he throws another 67 passes. The Packers win away 21-20.
NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (48.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
This will be a shoot out with the last team standing the winner. Because the Saints are at home and have the better quarterback, I will give them the nod, 27-21.
DENVER -10 (46.5) OVER KANSAS CITY
Denver won't have to play defense against the hapless Chiefs, the Chiefs don't have an offense and probably couldn't score against a good high school team. Denver in a romp 36-10.
BUFFALO -8 (41.5) OVER ST LOUIS
The Rams are about as low as a team can get. There must be something in the water in Missouri because both of their teams haven't won a game and don't look for that to change this weekend. Buffalo without breaking a sweat, 28-13.
SAN DIEGO -7.5 (45.5) OVER OAKLAND
Oakland played the Bills tough enough to win but alas, the cream always comes to the top and the curds always sink to the bottom. The Chargers will stir the pot a little more this week and win big, 28-17.
DALLAS -11 (46) OVER WASHINGTON
I picked the Redskins to finish last in the NFC East and they will show us why this weekend. Dallas has too much and Washington has too little, the Cowboys will win and with ease, 27-19.
SNF
PHILADELPHIA -3 (40.5) OVER CHICAGO
The Eagles defense ran over the Steelers offense last week and look for more of the same this week against a suspect Bears team. Philly 24-14.
MNF
PITTSBURGH -5.5 (34.5) OVER BALTIMORE
With the injuries problems that the Steelers have, look for a close game, but because Pittsburgh is at home and on MNF I will go with them, 17-16.
PICKS AND PANS FOR THE 3rd WEEK OF THE 2008-90 SEASON
John Madden once said, 'There are playoff teams and teams who make the playoffs'. As this season unfolds I see a lot of teams who could make the playoffs but none that stand out as a playoff team. The so called playoff teams are looking to survive and not doing a very good job of it so far. Granted injuries have put a damper on some teams chances at this point of the season. In fact injuries have had a major impact on some well respected teams. Jacksonville and Seattle come to mind right off and of course the injury to Tom Brady. But injuries are a part of the game, and it seems this year they are wide spread and are having a definite impact on some teams chances to make the playoffs. Don't look for any team to go through the season with less then three or four loses. In fact some teams that are doing well now are just one key injury away from a mediocre season.
Last week I was a mediocre 9-6, losing games in the last seconds and winning a game in the last seconds. For the season I'm 19-12, .613.
Well here goes week three of the 2008-09 NFL football season.
PHILADELPHIA-3.5 (45) OVER PITTSBURGH
This game will be another toss up, and maybe a shoot out. I will take the Eagles because they are at home 27-21.
JACKSONVILLE +5.5 (41.5) OVER INDIANAPOLIS
Both teams are struggling, but Jacksonville needs this win if they want to be in the hunt. Jaguars in a close one, 21-20.
NEW ENGLAND -12.5 (36.5) OVER MIAMI
Even with the Patriots being short handed at quarterback they will have enough to power over the Dolphins at home, 27-10.
MINNESOTA -3 (37.5) OVER CAROLINA
The Vikings maybe limited to just a running game and even if Peterson is out, it will be enough to beat the Panthers, 24-14.
DENVER -5.5 (51) OVER NEW ORLEANS
D-fence won't play a major part in this game, it may depend on who has the ball last. The Broncos in a shoot-out 27-24.
NEW YORK GIANTS -13 (41.5) OVER CINCINNATI
The Giants seem to keep coming up against teams that aren't very good, their coming down will happen, but not today as the Giants win big 28-13.
SEATTLE -9.5 (44) OVER ST LOUIS
This game is what Seattle needs, a team that can't score and can't stop anyone from scoring in the air or on the ground. Only Detroit has allowed more points than the Rams, Seattle 28-17.
BUFFALO -9 (36.5) OAKLAND
Oakland got their win for the first half of the season, Buffalo in a romp, 27-10.
WASHINGTON -3 (42.5) OVER ARIZONA
Jim Zorn and the Skins seems to have found a decent defense and they will need it this day. Washington in a close one, 21-20.
TENNESSEE -5 (39) OVER HOUSTON
Houston on the road again and another lost. Titans without Young and maybe for a long time will still win 21-17.
CHICAGO -3.5 (35.5) OVER TAMPA BAY
If and when the Bucs settle on a decent quarterback they may win a few games, but until that day and this isn't one of them, the Bears will win 19-17.
CLEVELAND +2 (38.5) OVER BALTIMORE
This is a must win for the Browns. If they don't its most likely over for this year. Browns win 21-19.
SAN FRANCISCO -4 (46.5) OVER DETROIT
The Lions will make it a game until Kitna has to throw the ball. 49ers will pull away at the end with a 27-20 win.
ATLANTA -4 (36.5) OVER KANSAS CITY
Atlanta will rebound against a so-so Chiefs team, but it will be close, Falcons win 19-17.
SNF
SAN DIEGO -8.5 (44.5) OVER NEW YORK JETS
Reality will set in for the Jets in this one and Favre will not be able to come to the rescue. The Chargers will win at home28-14.
MNF
GREEN BAY +3 (51) OVER DALLAS
Dallas has been less than impressive and GB is at home, tough for anyone and tough for the Cowboys, Packers will win in a high scoring game, 28-24.
Don't look for anyone to stand out this week. Your comments are always welcome.
I almost didn't write this blog after last weeks game between the Seahawks and the Bills. That was one sick puppy for sure.
I'm going to dispense with my Pans this week and go straight to my picks.
Last week I was 10-6 and could have done better except for what I consider three big upsets. but lets get started with week two predictions.
TENNESSEE +1.5 (37.5) OVER CINCINNATI
Why do I ever pick the Bengals? Tennessee big gun doesn't want to play football anymore? Wow, Vince Young is day to day and seems to be losing heart. But probably has enough to beat the Bengals. In a tight game I pick the Titans to win 21-17.
JACKSONVILLE -5.5 (37) OVER BUFFALO
Another close game if the play last week by either of these teams is any indication what will happen this week. Jacksonville is too good a team to be down and Buffalo after a great game will be higher than a kite. But I will side with the odds makers and take the Jags 21-17.
NEW ORLEANS -1 (42) OVER WASHINGTON
Washington is trying to learn a new system under 1st year head coach Jim Zorn, and it will take more than this week to polish it into a win. The Saints come marching into town and leave with a 24-17 win.
NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 (41.5) OVER ST LOUIS
I'm not on the Giants band wagon as some are, but you can still have one leg up on the wagon to win against this poorly performing Rams team. New York beats a sleeping giant but not as great as the odds makers say, lets say 24-17.
GREEN BAY -3 (45.5) OVER DETROIT
The Packers were not very impressive last week, but I think not being impressive is not a problem against the Lions. Packs win 24-10.
CAROLINA -3 (37.5) OVER CHICAGO
I will pick the Panthers only because they are at home and my gut feeling says it is right. Carolina over the Bears, but close 17-16.
MINNESOTA +1.5 (43.5) OVER INDIANAPOLIS
The Vikings have trouble passing the ball, so what's new about that, they have had trouble passing since the departure of Joe Kapp. The Colts had trouble doing anything last week and were not impressive at all at home against a weak Bears team. So I will call this a toss up, but since I have to pick someone I will take the Vikings because they are at home, 24-21.
KANSAS CITY -3.5 (36) OVER OAKLAND
Oakland has to find some defense if they want to win and KC has to find some offense if they want to win. What do you call this game, a draw, I will take the Chiefs only because they are at home, but won't put this game on my must watch list, Chiefs 20-17.
TAMPA BAY -7 (38) OVER ATLANTA
Atlanta was impressive last week and could scare the Bucs with their new found offense and stay in this game to the end. But in the end the Bucs will win, but a lot closer than the seven point spread. Bucs win 20-17. If the Bucs loses, they will have a hard time catching the Saints or anyone else for that matter.
SEATTLE -7 (38.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
I think Seattle played one of the worst games I have ever witnessed by a Seahawks team. Buffalo turned them every direction but loose. Now add all the injuries and they have one major problem. Receivers who can't catch, running backs who can't run, special teams who aren't special and a coaching staff who forgot to tell the player what the game plan was. All this may spell disaster for the Seahawks and their fans. But the 49ers have lost their quarterback, who in my opinion wasn't much to start with. Put all the injuries aside and Seattle is still better than San Francisco, Seahawks 24-13.
ARIZONA -6.5 (39) OVER MIAMI
Miami looked okay last week but still lost to Brett Favre. Arizona looked okay and won over a team who just lost their play maker. Both teams will struggle offensively but the Cardinals are at home and will prevail 24-14.
DENVER +1 (45.5) OVER SAN DIEGO
In one of the three upsets last week the Chargers lost at home while the Bronco's creamed the Raiders on the road. If San Diego is to step up and take charge in the AFC West they will have to show more than last week. Denver will put a road block in the Chargers path and win at home 24-20.
NEW YORK JETS -1.5 (37) OVER NEW ENGLAND
The high powered Patriots offense took a big hit last week and only time will tell if they can recover. The Jets on the other hand have added real punch to their offense and should win at home, barring injuries . Jets 20-17.
PITTSBURGH -6 (44.5) OVER CLEVELAND
The Steelers let the AFC know they will be a contender this year with their easy win last week. Cleveland let the AFC know that they don't have the offense to contend. Pittsburgh wins in Cleveland 27-17.
MNF - Bonus game due to the weather -
HOUSTON -4.5 (37) OVER BALTIMORE
Houston can't seem to win on the road, but they have one of the best home records. The Ravens got a rare win last week, but look for the Texans to stop the Ravens win streak at one. Texans win 27-10.
MNF
DALLAS -7 (47.5) OVER PHILADELPHIA
Dallas started off fast last week and scored it seemed at will, then they stalled and didn't show much the rest of the game. Meanwhile the Eagles scored at will against the Rams. But in a show down against division foes the Cowboys will win a home in a high scoring contest, 27-20.
After all the key injuries this past week, look for teams to change offensive and defensive sets to try to regain what they have lost to injuried players. I don't see at this time any team gaining the upper hand due to other teams injuries problems as injuries will even out as the season goes on. Tom Brady maybe the exception.
PICKS AND PANS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE 2008-09 NFL FOOTBALL SEASON
Well here we go football fans with a new brand new season, high hopes by fans of every team in the NFL.
Unfortunately most fans know right from the get go their teams are not going any where and even most of those teams that have a chance their fans are going to be disappointed in the end. Only 12 teams will even make it into the playoffs and about eight of those will have very little success in going all the way. Now with that said, whoa, wait a minute! The New York Giants won the Super Bowl last year as a wild card, so maybe there is hope for some of the also-ran to go all the way. Yeah right, but not this year, the Giants win in the Super Bowl was an once in 20 year fluke. Don't look for the Giants to repeat or maybe not even make the playoffs at all. I look for Dallas and Philiadelphia to finish ahead of the Giants in the NFC East with the Redskins tagging up the rear.
In the NFC North, look for the one dimensional Vikings to find a passing game and upset the Packers for the title in that division, with the Lions and the Bears fighting it out to stay out of the cellar.
The NFC South is a total mess with New Orleans coming out on top of Tampa Bay, Carolina and the Falcons. The latter two will be looking just for a way to win. If no team in this division finishes above .500, you and I shouldn't be to surprised.
The NFC West is not much better then the South but Seattle could run away with this division with Arizona trailing in second, followed by the 49ers and the Rams, both will fight it out to stay out of the cellar.
In the AFC East I llke for the Patriots to again dominate, with the fast improving Jets, led by Favre to finish second. I think Buffalo will edge out Miami for the third spot in that division.
In the AFC North, Pittsburgh will take this title with a real disappointing team of last year, the Cincinnati Bengals finishing second. Cleveland could be a contender if their play gets more consistence and the Ravens will finish their customary last.
I pick the Jacksonville Jags to upset the Colts this year in the AFC South and the Texans and Titans to finish behind, but both will create a lot of waves and could help decide who gets the top spot. The AFC South looks to be the toughness and most competitive division in the NFL.
The San Diego Chargers seem to be the darling of the AFC West with a struggling Bronco team fighting it out with the Raiders and the Chiefs to see who gets the higher draft picks.
I had an above average season picking winner last year (.654) and I hope to at least continue that this year.
Now for my picks for the first week of the 2008-09 season and with nothing to go on stat wise, it will be a tuffy:
THURSDAY;
NEW YORK GIANTS -4 (41) OVER WASHINGTON
Why? Because the Giants are at home and Washington has a new coach and are learning a new system. Is that reason enough?
SUNDAY GAMES;
CINCINNATI -1.5 (38) OVER BALTIMORE
Why? Because the Bengals are playing the Ravens. Beyond that, who really cares at this point of the season.
PHILADELPHIA -7.5 (44) OVER ST LOUIS
The Eagles are at home against a not so good Rams team and the Eagles want to show they are a contender. The Rams just want to competitive.
NEW ORLEANS -3.5 (42.5) OVER TAMPA BAY
This will be the first show down game in the NFC South by the top two teams and the winner may be the one to win the division, then maybe its to early to tell.
SEATTLE +1 (39) OVER BUFFALO
Can't figure out why the odds makers make the Bills the favorite, east coast bais? Hmmm, then again maybe Seattle inconsistence play on the road is why.
DETROIT -3 (41) OVER ATLANTA
This game could be a toss up, we will have to wait and see what the new look in Atlanta will be. If its the old look, Detroit easy.
JACKSONVILLE -3 (33.5) OVER TENNESSEE
The Jags could win it all with a few breaks and a game like this might be one of those breaks needed.
NEW YORK JETS -3 (36) OVER MIAMI
I cross my fingers on this one, but with Favre at the helm I will give the Jets the edge.
PITTSBURGH -6.5 (43) OVER HOUSTON
Houston just hasn't played well on the road and this game won't be any different.
SAN DIEGO -9 (42) OVER CAROLINA
Another team who will be in the hunt for the AFC crown and rightly so.
DALLAS -5.5 (49) OVER CLEVELAND
This could be a lot closer than Cowboy fans would like, but I think Dallas will prevail.
NEW ENGLAND -16 (45) OVER KANSAS CITY
This is the biggest point spread of the week and Patriots will not disappoint.
ARIZONA -3 (42) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
Tough call, but if Arizona is to challenge Seattle they better win the games they are expected to.
INDIANAPOLIS -10 (44) OVER CHICAGO
Nothing to add here, could be a lot more than ten.
DOUBLE HEADER ON MNF
GREEN BAY -3 (38) OVER MINNESOTA
Maybe a bad pick, maybe, but the Pakers are at home and they don't seem to lose there very offen and for no other reason.
DENVER -3 (41) OVER OAKLAND
Ugh, I can't think of a worst game for MNF.
Well there are my first week picks, your comments are always welcome, good or bad.
PICKS AND PANS FOR WEEK ONE OF THE 2008-09 NFL FOOTBALL SEASON
Well here we go with the 2008-09 NFL season.
As usual the first week is the hardest to pick the winners, because the preseason is all about who makes the team and replace starters lost to retirement, free agency and/or injury. Most starters from last year either played very little or not at all, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are in the latter group.
Because I am a die hard Seattle Seahawk fan, most of my blogs will favor the Seahawks, whether you like it or not. Seattle rested most of their offensive starters the whole preseason, but played most of the defensive starters for longer periods of time in each preseason game. I was a little disappoointed by defensive picks in the draft because I still think Seattle's defense is way ahead of the offense. Seattle weaknesses were in special teams, offensive line and running back. With the acquisition of both Jones and Duckett and a little consistency by Morris maybe that position has been fixed. We will have to wait and see if this happens. The offensive line over a sixteen game season is my biggest worry. A few injuries and we could have major problems opening holes for these three guys. Special teams is another concern at the moment, I don't think Seattle fans will miss Josh Brown because his kick offs were way to short and were returned over the 30 yard line way to many times. With Coutu and Mare, and it looks like Holmgren has both kickers on the roster, it looks like the kicking game will improve. But I see plenty of holes in the kick off coverage and until something is done about that, long kick off will not be much of an advantage unless it is kicked out of the end zone instead of carried into it.
Well here goes with the 2008-09 season predictions. I will leave the weekly picks for later in the week when I have evaluated who has been cut, important injuries and what the finally line ups will be to start the season. But lets have a drum roll, please.
AFC EAST DIVISION
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
AFC NORTH DIVISION
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
AFC SOUTH DIVISION
Jacksonville jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
AFC WEST DIVISION
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
NFC NORTH DIVISION
Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
NFC EAST DIVISION
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
NFC SOUTH DIVISION
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
NFC WEST DIVISION
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
St Louis Rams
Now we all know at the end of the season some of these teams will be wrong due to injuries and pure bad luck. but if the season goes like I think it should, it will be pretty close. I won't predict the playoffs or the Super Bowl until I know how the season is playing out. I think the odds makers have the PIatriots and Cowboys as the favorites but lest see what happens and revisit this on, let's say week ten or eleven.
Now NFL fans lest have some fun and your comments are always welcome good or bad.
Good luck to your team and I hope we all have a good season.
What is Parity? In the NFL it means every team at the beginning of the season has an equal chance too win the Super Bowl.
Sounds simple doesn't it? Ya right! Tell that to the Miami Dolphins.
What is the cause of Parity, if such a beast exist? Could it be the salary cap? A lack of talent? Free agencies? Could coaching changes by good teams cause them to become mediocre after a good season? Or is it a combination of all the above, or none of the above?
I think its time we forget the notion of parity in the NFL and I will point out why.
To start out, look at New England, as of today they have a 15 game win streak, and don't forget the Miami Dolphins, who are 1-14. No parity there! True, winning streaks out pace losing streaks by only a slim margin. There have been 28 streaks of at least four victories or four losses in 2007, 15 winning and 13 losing. But look at some of the winning streaks, the Patriots lead with 15 straight and Dallas has had streaks of five and seven games. The Colts have had streaks of seven and six games and Green Bay has had two streaks of four and six games. San Diego is finishing the season with five in a row. Long losing streaks by teams such as the Ravens (9) and San Francisco (8) should dispel any notion of parity in the win/lost category. There are just teams that win and teams that don't and overall they are the same teams year after year.
The NFL salary cap is define as the maximum amount that a team may spend on player compensation. The cap is calculated by the curent Collective Bargaining Agreement or CBA and is set to be 59.5% of the total projected league revenue. This number divided by the number of teams determines the amount of the cap, thus $102 million per team. (2006 figures)
Lets now look at the salary cap. One would have to think this would lead to parity. (remember there will be a difference between my figures and the real figures due to my figures are based on the 2006 season, but the difference overall is minor) But the salary cap doesn't cause players to move to teams who need them to fill holes, and not necessarity to teams who can afford them. Make sense? (I will explain this in depth later on when I examining the coaching staffs) Look at it this way, the 49ers picked up a couple free agents and expected great things and a winning season, didn't happen. Seattle on the other hand picked up a couple free agents to shore up their defensive back field and, well the rest is history. Seattle has one of the best pass defenses in the NFC and the reason was the addition of free agents. I could go on team by team, but you get the idea by these two examples.
The salary cap for the NFL is $102 million per team, at least was in 2006. The 2007 salary for every player is not available, (although the cap for the 2007 season is around $109 million) so all figures used here are 2006 figures. Just before the season started every team was under the cap except the Colts and the Redskins which are a few million over. In fact one of the better teams in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers are under the cap the most at $35 million, which means they have a total salary of around $67 million. Go figure! Here are some of the other good teams and the cap, Cowboys $22.6 million under and the Patriots, $16.9 million under. Some of the not so lucky teams such as Miami are under the cap by $6.3 million, which means the Dolphins have a total salary of $95.7 million, almost $30 million more paid in salary than the Packers and $10 million more than the Patriots. So much for money buying championships. The Ravens are $10.6 million under the salary cap and are in the same boat as the Dolphins. So spending money or free agents are not going to guarantee any team success on the field. That should also dispel any notion the salary cap is the cause of parity.
So what does this all show? It shows that spending money doesn't necessaily create a good team or a good record. By the way, Seattle is $17.3 million under the cap. If the talent is needed and is out there, there is plenty of money to go out and get it. I think the problem is the lack of talent available out there on the free market and ownership who are too tight to spend up to the cap level. Why would they? When teams can't sell out and are being blacked out because the fans aren't going to the games. It creates a vicious cycle that takes years and sometimes new ownership to break that cycle and the only ones to suiffer are the fans. High draft picks for bad teams don't guarantee winning seasons, Reggie Bush, Ricky Williams and Matt Leinart are a good example of that.
Well what does lead to a good record? Coaching leads to a good record. Coaches who can get the most out of a player will win the most games. Coaches such as Belichick is the best of the coaches today and John Madden of years passed are prime examples ot this. Yes I know there are other fine coaches out there, but I personally think these two are/or were the best. A top notch front office can also lead to getting the players needed to fill holes in any team, but that won't guarantee success. Team players are the answer and they are the hardest to find. One of the better pick ups was free agent Terrell Owens of the Dallas Cowboys (team player? depend if you like him or not) but will he help Dallas win the Superbowl, time and most likely the Patriots will tell if they can.
Here is an example of coaching changes that caused teams to become stagnate after a couple good years. After the 2004-05 season which the Patroits won their 3rd Superbowl they lost both their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator and haven't been to the Superbowl since. The '85 Bears lost their defensive coordinator and they never make it back in spite of having Ditka, Payton and other great stars. San Diego got off to a slow start this year, and if you look at the coaching changes you may discover the reason. Offensive coach Cam Cameron, who was responsible for an offense who featured LaDainian Tomlinson is now head coach of Miami. Defensive coach Wade Phillips is now head coach of Dallas. Marty Schottenheimer getting fired after going 14-2 is unconscionable to me. But Norv Turner, in my opinion should be coach of the year for getting the Chargers a shot at the big show after having to start the season from scratch and with a completely new coaching staff to boot.
Parity in the NFL, I don't think there is such a beast, at least in the 2007-08 NFL there's not.
This past week the only team to lose in the NFC West was the Rams who were blown out by the Steelers big time. Seattle won easily against a rather poor Ravens team. The 49ers upset the Bucs in San Francisco, which in my opinin, isn't that big of an upset and Arizona derailed the Falcons in overtime after blowing a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Last week the Green Bay Packers were humiliated by the Bears in Chicago. If you remember I almost picked the Bears to upset the Packers but changed my mind at the last minute. The Bills stayed with the Giants and lead going into the 4th quarter, but too many mistakes cost the Bill at the end. I thought the 49ers/Bucs game would be close and it was, but in favor of the 49ers. For the week I was a very respectable 12-4 and for the year I am 144-75.
My picks for week 17 are:
Note: Before I make my picks please remember most playoff teams will rest their players, some early on and some later, so this week's picks are the most difficult of the season for that reason. The two toughest weeks to pick winners are the first and the last, in fact because of that reason I skipped the first week of the season completely.
SATURDAY - NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
The question here is whether the Patriots will rest their front line players or will they go for the record? I think they will play their front line players at least until the game is in hand. Maybe deep into the third quarter. Don't let the hype fool you, Belichick and all the players want all the records, Pats will win on the road 28-17 to complete an undefeated season.
SEATTLE OVER ATLANTA
This is a meaningless game for the Seahawks and knowing Holmgren 'let them off the hook' style, I dread this game with a passion. Holmgren teams play down to the the level of the bad teams and Atlanta is a bad team. But look for the Hawks to exploit the mistakes of the Falcons and squeak out a win, lets say 21-13.
GREEN BAY OVER DETROIT
Detroit was just barely able to beat a bad Kansas City team last week while the Packers were humiliated by a suspect Bears team. You may think the Packers would have the advantage playing in Green Bay with winter well set in, but last weeks lost in Chicago was also wintery weather and they still lost and lost badly. But look for home heating and home cooking to be in the Packers favor and they win 24-10.
CINCINNATI OVER MIAMI
No, the Dolphins will not finish the season with their second win. Cincinnati willl squeak out the win in Miami 24-20.
CHICAGO OVER NEW ORLEANS
The Saints will go into cold, windy and unfriendly Chicago and leave the windy city with a bad taste and a disappointing season as the Bears will win in a low scoring battle of frozen football players and fans. Bears 17-14. The forecast? 30 degrees and snow which doesn't favor the warm weather Saints.
JACKSONVILLE OVER HOUSTON
Houston plays well at home, but the Jaguars want to go into the playoffs with momentum and will not rest any of their players until the game is well in hand. Jags 27-19.
PHILADELPHIA OVER BUFFALO
This may be the last game for McNabb in Philadelphia and again it may not. If Donovan can have an impressive game he will most likely be back. Wins have a way of shutting up critics and win the Eagles will, 24-20.
TAMPA BAY OVER CAROLINA
Here's news for you, the Vegas odds makers have the Panthers a three point favorite. TB will not rest their players for the playoffs. They are not good enough to be able to rest anyone as shown by losing two of the last three, and both loses to bottom feeders. But the Bucs are at home where they play fairly well and will win over another, well maybe not a bottom feeder, but a poor team for sure 17-14.
CLEVELAND OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Browns are fighting for their playoff lives, and can't afford to rest their front line players against a surging 49ers. Playing at home they will win 24-17.
WASHINGTON OVER DALLAS
I think the Dallas Cowboys will rest some of their players and the Redskins will take advantage as they still have a chance for the playoffs if they win. In fact if they win they are in the playoffs. Washington wins in a mild upset at home, 21-20.
PITTSBURGH OVER BALTIMORE
The once proud Ravens are a team in disarray and the Steelers will pounce on them. Look for coaching changes in Baltimore before next season. Steelers win easily 24-13.
SAN DIEGO OVER OAKLAND
The Chargers are anotheer team who may rest some of their players, but against the Raiders it won't make much difference. San Diego will win in Oakland, 21-17.
MINNESOTA OVER DENVER
Look for a possibe coaching change in the Mile High city next year. Whether it is through retirement or firing, it will happen. Fans in Denver are used to winning and that is not happening as Denver has suffered though the worst drought in recent memory and Minnesota is still alive, if Washington loses and they pull out a win. The Vikings win in Denver but close, 24-10.
ARIZONA OVER ST LOUIS
Arizona and St Louis? The only thing this game will accomplish is if the Rams lose they will get a higher draft pick. The Rams will lose and get their higher draft pick. Cardinals win at home, 24-17.
NEW YORK JETS OVER KANSAS CITY
Come on sports fans, who care who wins between these two teams? The 3-12 Jets will beat the 4-11 Chiefs in the rain/snow of New Jersey, 19-14.
SNF - INDIANAPOLIS OVER TENNESSEE
Manning verus Young, Manning wins hands down. Also the Colts win hands down 34-17.
Again I will combine my Pans (week 15) and Picks for week 16 due to a the game being played tonight.
The NFC West continues to struggle going into the second to the last week of the season.
Seattle was upset by the Carolina Panthers who had only won one game at home all season and quite frankly are not a very good football team without Jake Delhomme. The Seahawks blew a chance to prove they belong with the elite teams of the NFL by losing this game. Carolina's defense shut down the Hawks most of the day or was it the Hawks shut down themselves by poor play calling and/or poor execution. If you saw the game, I will let you decide.
Arizona Cardinals were no match for the Saints and went down to defeat in New Orleans. Drew Brees' 87% pass completions proved more than the Cards defense could over come. Arizona's offense continues to impress in a losing cause with the aging Curt Warner at the helm.
San Francisco upset win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals was the only win by the West this past week. The 49ers are on their 4th or 5th quarterback this season. Maybe they finally have found one they can stick with or at least until he gets hurt. The 49ers seem to have a problem protecting their quarterbacks.
The Rams were dismantled by the Green Bay Packers, although the game was close until the second half when Favre put the game away by wearing down the Rams defense.
This past week had a few of the playoff teams go down to defeat and resulted in four of my missed picks. Time to party in South Florida, Miami won for the first time this year. Pittsburgh losing to the Jaguars was not a complete surprise and the game did go down to the final quarter before it was decided. I think the two biggest upsets were the Eagles beating the Cowboys in Dallas and the Skins beating the Giants in New York.
For the week I was 10-6, which is about my average and for the year I'm 132-71.
Week 16 picks are as follows:
THURSDAY - PITTSBURGH OVER ST LOUIS
Pittsburgh will be fighting for their divisional title lives going into this game, with the Browns breathing down their necks, the Steelers will go into St Louis and win 24-17.
SATURDAY - DALLAS OVER CAROLINA
Dallas will not go into Carolina and lose to an injury ridden team like Seattle did. Romo, if his injured thumb is okay will lead the Cowboys to victory, but if some backup quarterback plays the Cowboys will still win, 31-13.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
CINCINNATI OVER CLEVELAND
I think the string has run out on the Browns title hopes and playing in Cincinnati against a team who has a better overall offense and a better overall defense, the Browns will fall to the Bengals 21-10.
DETROIT OVER KANSAS CITY
The string of loses by the Lions will end this week at home, but they better hold down their turnovers or it could go the other way. Kansas City has no running game and in fact is not much of an offensive threat even to the Lions. Detroit wins 24-14.
INDIANAPOLIS OVER HOUSTON
The Colts have had a lot of injuries this year and seem to be getting their players back at the right time. All this does is strengthen the Colts in their quest to repeat as Super champion. Whether they can derail the train, also known as the New England Patriots, will have to be seen. Houston has been playing better lately but not good enough to win on the road in Indianapolis, Colts win 33-14.
GREEN BAY OVER CHICAGO
I almost picked the Bears to upset the Packers, but the Favre factor made me decide to stick with the Packers. The bears defense has shown some consistence lately, but Green Bay has too many weapons for the Bears to handle. Packers win in Chicago but it will be close, 24-20.
BUFFALO OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
The least impressive team in the playoff picture at the moment, is the New York Giants. Offensively they are more down than up. Their turnovers are killing any chance they have advancing past the first round in the playoffs. The Bills continue to show improvement despite the shutout lost to the Browns in a driving snow strom. The Bills will beat the Giants at home, 21-13.
JACKSONVILLE OVER OAKLAND
Oakland continues to be a very scrappy team and will give the Jags all they can handle with their defense just as the Colts found out last week. But Jacksonville has shown a lot of offense of late and will beat the Raiders at home 31-21.
TAMPA BAY OVER SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco may have found a qurterback, wait I think I said that three or four times already this year. San Francisco's winning streak will end at one. The Bucs and Garcia will win in SF 24-17. But look for a closer game than some of the so-called experts predict.
ARIZONA OVER ATLANTA
Atlanta continues their nose dive this week in Glanedale, Arizona. The Cardinals are a 10-point favorite in Vegas. I can't remember anytime the Cards were a 10-point favorite against anyone. But I agree with the odds makers this time and 10 points sounds about right. Arizona wins 24-14.
PHILADELPHIA OVER NEW ORLEANS
McNabb looked sharp against the Cowboys and will continue to come back from injuries to beat the Saints this week. Don't look for Brees to complete 87% of his passes against the Eagles. Philadelphia wins 24-20.
NEW ENGLAND OVER MIAMI
Wow, the Dolphins finally won a game. But don't look for the Dolphins to go into New England, who are a 22-point favorite, and improve on the 2007 winning streak of one. This isn't tropical South Florida and the Patriots will crush Miami in the cold weather with ease, 34-10.
SEATTLE OVER BALTIMORE
It scares me when Holmgrem makes the statement that Seattle will continue to run the ball. Run the ball, with whom? Seattle has no running game, zero. Holmgrem, stick with what works, pass the ball 90% of the time. Whew! The Ravens embarrassed themselves, losing to the Dolphins and will lose to the Seahawks in Seattle, 28-13.
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
The Jets defense looked good against the Patriots last week but the Jets offense continues to struggle scoring points, look for the same results in Tennessee as the Titans win 24-13.
SNF - MINNESOTA OVER WASHINGTON
Neither team look impressive this past week. Both played very sloppily and were lucky to come away with wins. But this game could be very interesting due to the fact if washington upsets the Vikings they would be tied with the Vikings and the wild card would be decided in the last week of the season. Look for the Vikings to clinch the last wild card position by winning at home in a hard fought game, 24-21.
MNF - SAN DIEGO OVER DENVER
Look for San Diego and LaDainian Tomlinson to continue to roll into the playoffs. This week it will be over the up and down Broncos. Chargers to win with ease in San Diego 28-13.
