While a couple upsets spoiled the final outcome of this weeks games for me, it still went pretty much as I expected. Houston finally winning on the road was a mild surprise until you look at who they played. Not sure where the Texans got their new found defense or if it was just the same inept Browns team. I vote for the latter.
Well it had to happen sometime and the Jets found the right formula and beat the Titans, knocking them out of being the last unbeaten team in the NFL. I guess most fans were a tad surprised by the lack of offense by the Titans and how Favre and the Jets manhandled them offensive, I know I was.
Denver remains the mystery team as the Raiders smashed them at home. I originally thought the Falcons would win this game but changed my mind when the Panthers won so easily the week before, but the Falcons shined as they turned Carolina every where but loose both in the air and on the ground. So much for Carolina's 5th best pass defense.
Washington stopped their skid beating the keystone cops....I mean the Seahawks in Seattle.
The MNF game was a test of defenses, or should I say a lack of defense. I predicted a high scoring game but no where near the 80 points scored in this one. Seems Green Bay left part of their team home, namely their defensive backs.
Atlanta and Carolina remain in the wild card hunt and both still have a shot at their divisional titles. Washington and Dallas only have a shot at the wild card, as the NFC East title has been decided. The Vikings, Bears and Packers all are in the race for the NFC North title but only the winner of that division will advance.
In the AFC, Denver still has command of the AFC West with the Chargers having a outside chance at best. The Jets are in control of the AFC East and the other three only having a outside shot at the title but more likely a wild card. The Titans are a lock with the Colts having a shot at the wild card. The Steelers lead in the AFC North with the Ravens close on their heels.
Week twelve is in the books and I went 10-6. For the year I am now 107-68-1 (.610) straight up and 107-69 (.608) using the spread.
My picks for this week are as follows:
TNF
TENNESSEE -10.5 (44) OVER DETROIT
Well the unbeaten string is broken and Tennessee has to start anew. What better team could they hope for than facing the lowly Lions. The Titans win on the road beating the helpless Lions, 28-17.
DALLAS -13 (47) OVER SEATTLE
Seattle turnover ratio is one of the worst in the NFL coupled with an offense that rates 31st and a defense that rates 29th, all the adds up to doom for the Hawks. Most of the 47 points will be scored by Dallas, maybe all of the points will be scored by Dallas as they romp to a easy victory, by lets say 34-13. Look for Romao and Owens to have a field day against a weak secondary and turn the Seahawk into a turkey.
PHILADELPHIA -3 (46.5) ARIZONA
I look for the Eagles to bounce back in this one to upset the Cardinals. McNabb will be out to prove he isn't as bad as the last two weeks have indicated. He better if he wants to save his and Andy Reid's job. Eagles pull one out of the hat, in spite of Warner and his vaulted receivers, by the score of 27-20.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
MIAMI -8 (44) OVER ST LOUIS
Miami still has an outside shot at a wild card and the Rams have a shot at the second top pick in the draft. I don't see either ones chances being hurt. Dolphins win on the road by plenty, 30-14.
NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 (44) OVER WASHINGTON
The Giants have the 5th best defense, but wait a minute, the Skins have the 3rd best. But I will still take the Giants with the 5th best offense to beat the surprising Redskins, by more than a touchdown, 27-17.
NEW ENGLAND -1 (40) OVER PITTSBURGH
Darn, this is a tough one to pick. The Steelers are the top defensive team in all of football but their offense lags some what behind. The Patriots are rated 7th on offense and 12th on defense. I will take the Patriots to win at home for no other reason but they are at home. In a low scoring game, 20-17.
TAMPA BAY -4 (48) OVER NEW ORLEANS
The up and down Saints. Wow, did they put it on the Packers on MNF. But which team will be on the field in Tampa, the up or the down? I think the Saints can't do it two games in a row and Tampa Bay will become the out right leader in the NFC South, Bucs win 28-20.
BUFFALO -7 (36) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
Buffalo got back on track this past weekend by scoring 51 points against a weak Chiefs team on the road. This game is against a weaker team at home, Bills win with ease, 27-10 to keep their playoff hopes alive.
BALTIMORE -7 (36) OVER CINCINNATI
The Ravens are staying one step behind the Steelers and the Bengals are staying one step ahead of Detroit for the top draft pick. Don't look for anythng to change in week thirteen. Baltimore wins big in Cincinnati, 27-20.
INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 (46) OVER CLEVELAND
The Colts must win to stay in the hunt for the wild card. Cleveland has no chance at either a playoff spot or a high draft pick. Indy goes to Cleveland and comes away with a win, 27-19.
SAN DIEGO -5 (49) OVER ATLANTA
The Chargers must win to have any chance to win the AFC West, and Atlanta must win to stay within range of the title in the NFC South. I will take San Diego only because they are at home and the Falcons had their game last week against the Panthers, Chargers win a high scoring, close game, 28-21.
GREEN BAY -3 (43) OVER CAROLINA
Both teams were soundly beaten last week. Both teams offenses were good enough in win most games. But their defenses were suspect to say the least. I think Green Bay will win at home in a high scoring game, 24-20 or more.
NEW YORK JETS -7.5 (42.5) OVER DENVER
Denver is a weird team, one week they seem unbeatable and the next, well look what the Raiders did to them. The Jets are on top of their game and should beat the Broncos at home, 27-14.
OAKLAND -3 (41.5) OVER KANSAS CITY
Oakland seems to play most teams fairly close and finally let loose on the Broncos last week. Being they are at home and playing one of the worst teams in the NFL, I will take the Raiders to win this week, 28-13. This will not be a must see game.
SNF
MINNESOTA -3 (42) OVER CHICAGO
This game may decide the winner of the NFC North as the Vikings are tied with the Bears. I will take the Vikings only because they are at home, other wise these two teams are very evenly matched, Vikings 24-17.
MNF
HOUSTON -3 (48) OVER JACKSONVILLE
Neither of these teams are going anywhere. Houston finally won on the road even if it was only the Browns and the Jaguars were thrumped by the Vikings. Houston will continue to play well at home and take the Jags in a high scoring game, 28-20.
Well another week goes into the books and I hope you enjoy my picks and I wish your team good luck. Your comments are always welcome......
Last week was a strange week indeed as I missed the first two games on my list and the last two games hitting all the others less one lousy tie. The Jets and Favre beating the Patriots and taking over first place in the AFC East was not a great surprise but Favre not throwing a pick was. The up and down Broncos gained a stronger foot hold on first place in the AFC West as they edged the Falcons. In the late games on SNF, Dallas squeaked out a win over the fading Skins and on MNF, Cleveland beat the fading Bills and put Buffalo on the bubble for the play-offs. Philadelphia's game against the Bengals ending in a tie was probably the worst game of the weekend.
All the other games came out as predicted as I finished with a 11-4-1 record for the week. Didn't fare as well on the spread as I finsihed 9-6. For the year I am 97-62-1 (.606) straight up and 95-65 (.593) using the spread.
My picks for this coming week are as follows:
THRUSDAY (TNF)
PITTSBURGH -11 (37.5) OVER CINCINNATI
The name of this game is defense and the Bengals don't have much in the way of defense and the Steelers are built entirely around their defense. Steelers win going away 21-14.
CLEVELAND -3 (49) OVER HOUSTON
Cleveland is playing their best football of the season and Houston is at the bottom looking up. The Browns will keep the Texans in the cellar as they win at home 28-21 in what could be a very high scoring game by two teams who are well out of the hunt for a play-off spot.
CHICAGO -7.5 (43) OVER ST LOUIS
Neither of these teams are playing their best right now. The Bears after getting dumped hard last week, are still tied for first place while St Louis is still tied for last place in their respective divisions. However the Bears will still have enough to beat the Rams at home, 27-16.
MINNESOTA +2 (40) OVER JACKSONVILLE
This game will be a minor upset as Minnesota has more at stake than the Jaguars and it is a must win for them if they want to stay even with both the Bears and Packers. Vikings win a squeaker in Jacksonville, 21-20.
TAMPA BAY -7.5 (43.5) OVER DETROIT
Detroit is on pace to lose every game this year, I don't think they will, but this game won't stop the bleeding as the Buccaneers will go into Lion Country and win both the game and the point spread, 28-14.
DALLAS -11 (48) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
We willl have to wait and see if Tony Romo's pinky is up to the task. Last week he seemed a little tentative but still managed to pull out a win against a fading Skins team. The 9ers are just the 9ers and beating the Rams is no great accomplishment. Dallas wins at home beating the point spread, 35-14.
BALTIMORE -1 (49) OVER PHILADELPHIA
This game will be a toss up between these two teams. The Ravens finally played someone of quality last week and got beat, the Eagles played someone who they should have beat and only come away with a tie. Baltimore will most likely make the play-offs but I'm not sure about the Eagles the way they are playing. So I will take the Ravens to win a lower scoring game than Vegas thinks, lets say 20-13.
BUFFALO -3 (43.5) OVER KANSAS CITY
Buffalo has to win to keep their chances alive to make the playoffs. Kansas City will be looking at their team to see who to eject next year. The Bills wins a close one in Kansas City by the score of 24-17.
NEW ENGLAND +2 (42) OVER MIAMI
Beating Seattle and Oakland is no major accomplishment and lightning will not strike twice in one year for the Patriots. This is the Patriots and they will raise up to win this game and stay on the heels of the Jets, 24-17.
TENNESSEE -4.5 (41.5) OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
The Titans seem to manage to win the close games all season and this game won't be any different. Tennesee's defense over the Jets and Favre's offense in another close game for the Titans. But being at home I will take theTitans, 21-20.
DENVER -9.5 (42.5) OVER OAKLAND
The Broncos are one of the up and down teams this year. But they are playing a team with only two wins and in their division and at home and, and, Broncos win by more than the point spread, 28-14.
CAROLINA +1 (42.5) OVER ATLANTA
I originally had the Falcons to win this one, but I now think Carolina's defense will prevail on this day. The Panthers running game seems to be in full swing and their pass defense is 5th best in the league, Panthers on the road, 24-19.
SEATTLE +3.5 (41) OVER WASHINGTON
Washington is sliding toward disaster in their division and Seattle seems to be getting health enough to help the Skins in their demise. Hasselbeck has to have time to hit his receivers meaning the so-so offensive line must step up to the plate and block, both to protect the quarterback and open holes for the running backs. Seattle must put more pressure on Campbell then they did against Warner last week. But in the end I see the Seahawks upsetting the Skins in a close one, 21-20.
NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 (48.5) OVER ARIZONA
The Cardinals are flying high, but this is the Giants they are facing this week. I think the Giants pass defense will put more pressure on Warner than he has seen all season. Look for Manning to pick the Cardinals defense apart. Giants do what a lot of teams haven't been able to do, win in Phoenix, and win they will 28-20.
SNF
INDIANAPOLIS +3 OVER SAN DIEGO
The Chargers game is just so-so on offense, but getting a little better on defense. The Colts are going to exploit the Chargers secondary and shut down the running game in a high scoring game, 30-20.
MNF
GREEN BAY +3 (52) OVER NEW ORLEANS
This may be the shoot out game of the week, Rogers seems to have it going and Brees seems to struggling for the past couple weeks. The Packers stay in first and the Saints stay in the cellar, Green Bay wins this high scoring game,34-17.
Well that's it for this week and I hope your teams does well. As usual your comments are always welcome........
Well as promised its time for my mid-season update on who is going to the play-offs and who isn't. I will compare my preseason predictions to the present as everyone has now played ten games and lastly I will give you my insight into who will win the Super Bowl.
To make it easy I will start with who isn't going to make the play-offs.
First the AFC.
In the West I don't think Kansas City, Oakland or my preseason favorite, San Diego will make the play-offs. That was easy.
Jacksonville my preseason favorite and Houston have eliminated themselves in the South as has both Cleveland and Cincinnati have in the North. Again very easy to predict after ten games.
At this time no one has been eliminated in the Eastern Division. Although Buffalo, after MNF lost to Cleveland, is on the bubble.
Now to the NFC.
In the West, my favorite to win the division, Seattle, has now been eliminated along with both San Francisco and St Louis.
In the East, where I though both wild cards would come from, is still up for grabs as all four teams are in the hunt although Philadelphia is now on the bubble.
No one has been eliminated in the South but New Orleans is on the bubble. The same holds true in the North not withstanding Detroit who was eliminated on the first day of the season.
My picks in the Preseason How they stand now.
AFC East New England New York*
New York New England*
Buffalo Miami*
Miami Buffalo*
AFC North Pittsburgh Pittsburgh*
Cleveland Baltimore*
Cincinnati Cleveland
Baltimore Cincinnati
AFC South Jacksonville Tennessee*
Indianapolis Indianapolis*
Houston Jacksonville
Tennessee Houston
AFC West San Deigo Denver*
Denver San Diego*
Oakland Oakland
Kansas City Kansas City
NFC East Dallas New York*
Philadelphia Dallas*
New York Washington*
Washington Philadelphia*
NFC North Minnesota Minnesota*
Green Bay Green Bay*
Detroit Chicago*
Chicago Detroit
NFC South New Orleans Carolina*
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay*
Carolina Atlanta*
Atlanta New Orleans*
NFC West Seattle Arizona*
Arizona San Francisco
San Francisco Seattle
St Louis St Louis
* Denotes teams who still have a shot at the Play-offs.
As you can see only five teams have been eliminated in my opinion in the NFC and six in the AFC. Philadelphia and New Orleans in the NFC are on the bubble at this time. In the AFC San Diego and Buffalo are on the bubble. One more loss in their own division will more or less eliminate them all from post season.
Divisional winners will be New England-Pittsburgh-Tennessee-Denver in the AFC.
Divisional winners New York-Green Bay-Tampa Bay-Arizona in the NFC.
Wild Cards will be Indianapolis and New York in the AFC and Dallas and Carolina in the NFC.
So who is going to be in the Super Bowl? I believe it will be the New York Giants against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the winner of the 2009 Super Bowl will be.........the Pittsburgh Steelers. Why? It comes down to defense and the Steelers have the best all around defense in the NFL.
Well we are back to a full schedule this week with no byes.
It was a really good game to watch on MNF as the Cardinals came from behind and pulled it out against the 49ers with a goal line stand in the last few seconds to preserve the win. However both teams have some real dumb players who tried their best to give the game away at varies stages of play and I mean dumb football players and dumb play calling. Defensive penalties by both sides played a big part in determining the final outcome.
Cleveland again imploded in the fourth quarter and cut off any hope of coming back to contend this year. My upset of the week, Jacksonville getting beat by Detroit was short lived as the Jags crushed a hapless Lions team in Detroit.
What happen to Brees? He was intercepted three times and the Saints are a cinch for the cellar in the NFC South unless they can turn it around, which I doubt as they miss Bush too much.
The Baltimore Ravens got another softy in their schedule to whip up on and they did as they crushed the Texans. Tennessee continues to roll and the Colts squeaked by the Steelers in a good game for viewers on Sunday. In another game consisting of a lot of mistakes and inconsistence play the Eagles fell to the Giants.
Next week I will give my prediction who will be in the Super Bowl as most of the also runs have been determined and have eliminated themselves from post season play. The rest of the contenders are now in position to jockey themselves into the position. I will also examine and compare my preseason divisional winners to how it stands now, next week.
For the year I stand at 86-68 (.614) both straight up and using the spread.
Lets get started with my picks of the week.
TNF (AKA THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL)
NEW ENGLAND -4 (42) OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
Favre has thrown for 16 touchdowns this year, that is the upside, but the downside, he has been picked 12 times. Cassel has seven TD's and seven picks. The Patriots and Favre should both increase their interceptions total and New England should win at home, 24-17.
ATLANTA -6 (51) OVER DENVER
Are the Falcons the real deal this year? If you ask Matt Ryan they are and I think he is right, at least this weekend, as the Falcons win at home in a shoot out, 31-20.
TAMPA BAY -3.5 (38.5) OVER MINNESOTA
The Bucs got a week off to get ready for this game and the Vikings had a rough time beating the Packers. I will take Tampa Bay, which shapes up to be a real good game for the viewers, to win at home, 21-17.
NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (50) OVER KANSAS CITY
Neither of these teams are going aywhere this year. Brees got picked three times last week and the Chiefs came within a hair beating the Chargers by missing a two point conversion with 23 seconds to go. The game is in KC and Johnson is back after being out for four weeks, but I will still take Brees to bounce back in a shoot out, 28-21.
GREEN BAY -4 (45) OVER CHICAGO
Tough loss for both of these teams last week. But Rogers is playing better than whoever will be quarter backing the Bears, Packers win at home to tighten this race in the NFC North, 24-21.
PHILADELPHIA -9 (42) OVER CINCINNATI
The Eagles are still in the hunt for a wild card and the Bengals are just being hunted. The week off won't help a poor Bengals team as they go on the road and get beat again 28-14.
CAROLINA -14 (40) OVER DETROIT
Detroit is a heart beat away from not winning a game this season. This will be a low scoring game, but the Panthers will pull away and win it with ease, 24-14.
INDIANAPOLIS -8 (50) OVER HOUSTON
The Colts will continue their hunt for the left overs and the Texans will try to survive another road lost, Indianapolis wins with ease, 31-17.
MIAMI -10.5 (38.5) OVER OAKLAND
Not sure is the 10-11 point spread is enough in this one played in Miami. I will take a playoff contender over an also ran, 28-10.
NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 (42) OVER BALTIMORE
I think the string of patsies that the Ravens have been playing is over and this week they will have to play their very best to even stay in this game. Giants and their big offensive line win 24-17.
ARIZONA -3 (47.5) OVER SEATTLE
Seattle played probably their best game last week on the road and Arizona almost blew their home game against the 49ers, but Warner is playing the best football of his long career. Even If Hasselbeck is back it won't be enough. Seattle has too many holes and too many dropped passes. Cards win 28-20.
SAN FRANCISCO -6 (44) OVER ST LOUIS
The 49ers played their best game in their lost to the Cards. In spite of poor coaching decisions and dumb plays by dumb football players they made a game out of. But the Rams are the wost of the worst, well except for Detroit. 49ers win at home, 24-20. Singletary seems to have the 9ers going in the right direction at last.
PITTSBURGH -4.5 (43) OVER SAN DIEGO
As of the latest report, Roethlisberger won't play this weekend but his backup is an able backup against a team who relies on the run. However the steelers are one of the best against the run so where will San Deigo offense come from, it won't , Steelers win with ease, 28-14.
TENNESSEE -3 39.5) OVER JACKSONVILLE
This game will be a toss up. Could go either way. But I will take the only undefeated team left to continue their streak over a suspect Jaguar team, 24-14.
Well that's it for this week, your comments are always welcome.
SNF
WASHINGTON +2 (44.5) OVER DALLAS
The Skins try to keep pace with the Giants and Dallas will try to clear out of the cellar in the NFC East. I will take the Skins to keep the Cowboys where I like them, right there in the cellar, 24-20. If the Cowboys don't win this one, look for Phillips to be on very shaky ground with Jerry and don't be surprised, if they are losing, TO blows a fuse during and after the game.
MNF
BUFFALO -5.5 (42) OVER CLEVELAND
Buffalo has been on a losing streak but two fourth quarter let downs by the Browns doesn't lend anything to their cause, the Bills heal at home and keep pace in the AFC East to win this one 24-17.
Now that the season is half over for all the teams, the real football season will now get started, at least for the contenders. The also ran teams have been exposed and have fallen by the way side one by one. So lets look at both Conferences and break down who still has a chance and who doesn't.
Lets start with the AFC.
Lets start with the AFC South. In my opinion, Jacksonville will go down as the biggest disappointement of the 2008-09 season and being five games out, along with the Texans, with eight to play has dashed any hope for the divisionn crown or wild card in the AFC. The Titans will win this division with the Colts trailing and hoping for the wild card.
In the AFC North, both Cincinnati and Cleveland playing behind the Steelers is their doom and Baltimore who has a outside chance at a wild care will have to beat Pittsburgh which is not likely having lost to them earlier this season. Why? Because Pittsburgh's defense is too tough and if they can get their offense on the same page (and Roethlisberger healthy) will be a real contender to go all the way to the Super Bowl.
The East looks like the best division in the AFC, as all four teams are still in it at this time, its just too close to call. The Patrioits are just not the same without Brady and may have trouble holding off either the Jets or the Bills, although the Bills seem to be sliding slightly away at this time. Miami will be a contender if they can beat the other teams in their own division, which will be a tall order.
The AFC West is a shambles with Denver leading with only a .500 record. The Chargers can't seem to get out of their own way but are still only a game behind. This weekend may define this race a little better. The Raiders and Chiefs are out of any contention.
In the NFC things are a lot tighter in all divisions except the NFC West as usually being the weakest. Except it's Arizona instead of Seattle leading the way. Speaking of Seattle who along with San Francisco and the Rams are not even close to being a contender this year.
Detroit is long gone from contention in the NFC North with Chicago leading the way and both the Packers and Vikings only one game back. Don't look for a wild card team from this division.
The NFC South is the most interesting division to follow with no team out of the hunt at this time. Carolina is leading but by a thread over Tampa Bay, closely followed by the Falcons and Saints. A couples wins by either the Saints or the Falcons and a couple loses by the either the Buccaneers or the Panthers could completely turn this division around.
Now the division where I believe the wild cards will come from. New York will win the NFC East with the other three teams competing for both wild cards. Dallas, unless they get their quarterback situation straighten away, will be the long shot in this equation with Washington and Philadelphia fighting for the top wild card spot. The Giants/Eagles game this weekend will be most interesting to say the least.
I must admit I made some bad choices last week and paid for it. Cincinnati beating Jacksonville is the most shocking upset to me of the weekend games. Although as bad as the Jaguars are playing it shouldn't have surprised me. Good wins by Buffalo and Miami as both games could have gone either way. I thought Arizona was due to be upset but they kicked some butt in St Louis to strengthen their lead in the their division. I think the biggest surprise was Atlanta shutting out Oakland, not so much the win but the shutout. The Eagles beating Seattle wasn't a surprise but I was hoping as it was my upset of the week. Pittsburgh beating the Skins so easy was a surprise, but it wasn't surprising that the Steelers beat them with their defense.
For the year I'm 79-51 (.608) straight up and 82-58 (.631) using the spread. Last year at my half way point I was 75-34 (.688) straight up.
THURSDAY'S GAME
CLEVELAND -3 (46) OVER DENVER
Denver is up and down and being the game is in Cleveland I will take a up and down Cleveland team who fell apart in the fourth quarter last week. The problem with the Broncos is you never know who is going to show up, the Up team or the Down team. I will guess the Down team, Browns win 27-20.
DETROIT +6.5 (44.5) OVER JACKSONVILLE
Well it has to happen sometime and why not against the most disappointing team in the NFL. The question is who is going to quarterback the Lions? Most likely the tried and tested Culpepper, who can't be any worst than what the Lions have put on the field this year so far. Lions pull off the upset (upset?) 24-20.
NEW ENGLAND -4 (42) OVER BUFFALO
The Patriots are still leading their division after a disappointing lost on SNF past. The Bills are in a down slide toward the cellar in the East as their offense struggles. New England wins over the Bills 20-14.
NEW ORLEANS pk'em (50) OVER ATLANTA
Drew Brees, what else do you need to hear? Atlanta's young quarterback is a talent to reckon with for years to come, but Brees will give him a lesson in this one, Saints win on the road 30-20 in a high scoring pass happy shoot-out.
MIAMI -9 (43) OVER SEATTLE
Seattle won't cover the spread, in fact the Seahawks won't even be in the game. Seattle will continue to struggle in the Eastern time zone. Miami wins at home over a not very good at this time Seattle team, 28-14.
HOUSTON -1.5 (42) OVER BALTIMORE
Houston plays well at home and against a team who manages to lose when they should win. The over rated Ravens has one of the easiest schedules in football but will fall this weekend in Houston, 24-17.
NEW YORK JETS -8 (44.5) OVER ST LOUIS
I will take the eight points and Favre over the Rams and mistake prone Bulger this weekend. St Louis has proven week after week they are the worst defensive team in the NFC. Jets at home in a romp, 30-14.
CHICAGO +3 (39) OVER TENNESSEE
My upset of the week. The Titans keep winning but by the skin of their teeth week after week. I think the string will run out in Chicago as the Bears win but close, 20-19.
MINNESOTA -2.5 (43) OVER GREEN BAY
A must win for Minnesota, but they must get their offense on track. The Vikings passing game has improved but their running game has slacked off a bit. Green Bay is just suspect on offense and the Viking will take advantage of that fact and win 24-20.
CAROLINA -8.5 (38) OVER OAKLAND
The Panthers have too much for the Raiders who looked awful last week in a shut out lost. The Panthers with easy, 28-10.
PITTSBURGH pk'em (40) OVER INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts lack of a running game is probably a good thing because the Steelers are third best against the run. The Colts can't stop the run which is a good thing for the Steelers who will run and run they will, 24-17. This will be the game of the week in the AFC.
SAN DIEGO -15 (48) OVER KANSAS CITY
-15? After taking the Bucs into overtime last weekend, hmm. But the Chargers who should be well rested, will plumment the Chiefs in San Diego this weekend. San Diego will have their eye on the division title and they can't let a team like the Chiefs stand in their way, Chargers win and cover the spread, 34-14.
SNF
PHILADELPHIA -3 OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
This will be a toss up but I will take the Eagles at home to beat the Giants in my upset of the week. Wait the Eagles are favored, how could that be? The Eagles almost have to win to keep their wild card hopes alive as the Cowboys and Skins keep the pressure up. Eagles at home over the Giants, 24-20.
MNF
ARIZONA -9 (46.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
I have a feeling nine point isn't enough. San Francisco has too many on and off the field problems to overcome to beat the best in the NFC West. Cardinals win in a blow out and take full command of the West, 30-17.
Well that's my picks for this week and as always your comments are welcome, let me know why you agree or disagree. I love a little debate...
This weekend every team will either have eight games under their belts or will be finishing the first half of their season. The Saints and Chargers played a high scoring game in fairly good weather conditions in London and 83 thousand plus fans came out to see them play. I hear a rumor that the NFL may play two games in London and one may be played in Japan, but its only a rumor at this time. There's even talk about of a possible expansion overseas. Hmm...
As predicted the Giants/Steelers game was the game of the week and was exciting the whole way. Well it was, if you weren't a Pittsburgh fan that is. The game was decided by a bad snap late in the game that lead to a safety and short field position allowing New York to score the winning TD.
I think the closest thing to an upset was the Browns win on the road against a very strange Jaguars team who lead in every category except the final score.
The Seahawks beat a 49ers team who seems to be in complete turmoil, both on and off the field. I will give Mike Singletary credit for showing some guts in his decision making and not letting his players try to run the team or him. I think he will do just fine in San Francisco if given the chance.
Most of the other games came out as predicted.
Well for the first time in several weeks I have no upsets to report. Most games went just as I thought and the games I missed were close, except the Seattle/49ers game. Last week I was 10-4 straight up but only 8-6 using the spread. For the year I am now 72-44 (.621), using the spread 78-48 (.672).
This week's games and my humble predictions.
MINNESOTA -4.5 (47) OVER HOUSTON
Houston has won a couple games in a row, but at home. They are not a solid road team and Minnesota has Peterson to run the table against the Texans, but look for a close game, lets say 24-23.
JACKSONVILLE -7.5 (40) OVER CINCINNATI
Jacksonville is the Cincinnati of last season. I picked them to win their division this year, but they have proven to be a big disappointment just as the Bengals were last year. But remember they are playing the worst of the worst and the Jaguars will win at home, but closer than seven and a half, how about 24-17. A poor quality Cincinnati team will cover the spread against Jacksonville's sluggish offense, but barely.
TAMPA BAY -8 (37) OVER KANSAS CITY
I was going to pick the Chiefs in an upset in this one, that is before I heard that Larry Johnson was suspended and won't play. The Buccaneers wil cover the spread and win going away, 28-10.
BALTIMORE +1.5 (36) OVER CLEVELAND
The Ravens defense is rated 2nd in the NFL and Cleveland's offense is rated 30th. I will take a good defense over a bad offense anyday. Baltimore will win if they can hold down their turnovers, 21-17.
BUFFALO -5.5 (43) OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
Oh the road, eleven Favre interceptions, allowing an offensive poor Chiefs team to score 24 points. Add this all up and you get a Bills victory. The Jets will score but the Bills will take advantage of a turnover prone Jets team to win 27-17.
ST LOUIS +3 (49) OVER ARIZONA
This could be the highest scoring game of the week. Then again maybe not. You never know what to expect out of either of these two teams. Both lack any consistencies both on offense and defense. But I will take the Rams at home to win this divisional game 28-21 in a mild upset.
CHICAGO -13 (43) OVER DETROIT
Detroit is at or near the bottom of all offensive and defensive categories. Chicago's defense should be the tale of the tape in this one, Bears win at home 28-14.
TENNESSEE -5.5 (42) OVER GREEN BAY
If this game was being played in Green Bay I would have picked an upset. But since the Titans are at home I will go with them and the odds makers. Titans win with their defense.....again, 24-17.
DENVER -3.5 (49) OVER MIAMI
I don't know why! Maybe because the Bronco's had the week off and Miami played an emotional game against Buffalo and we should expect a let down. Nah, because I don't have a real clue, so why did I take Denver, because the Bronco's are at home, they win in a full all out shoot out, 28-21.
OAKLAND +3 (41) OVER ATLANTA
Upset? Maybe if you are a Falcon fan, but I think Oakland is improving week after week and this is their week, I will take the under in this one. Raiders in a low scoring defensive struggle wins 17-10.
NEW YORK GIANTS -8 (41) OVER DALLAS
The NFL game of the week, no questions about it, this could be a barn burner from start to finish. This game, if my predictions holds true, may also decide the wild card in the NFC. That's if this weekend, the Skins keep winning in the Eastern Division and Dallas loses. Advantage to the Giants if Romo is out for this game. Giants keep putting pressure on the other three teams in this division. Giants win at home 24-17 but won't cover the spread.
SEATTLE +7 (43) OVER PHILADELPHIA
My upset of the week. Seattle always plays the Eagles well, remember it was the game in 2005 that put McNabb out for the season. Seattle just blew the Eagles away that year 42-0 and last year beat them 28-24. Seattle will beat the Eagles again this year but not by as much as 2005 of course, as a shaky Wallace leads the inconsistence Hawks on Sunday, 24-20. But remember Philly is not San Francisco.
SNF
INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 (49) OVER NEW ENGLAND
The only problem with this prediction is that Manning has thrown nine interceptions, which is not the Peyton Manning I have known for the last several years. But Manning is still a better quarterback than Cassel and the Patriots seem to be on a down slide. Colts at home over the Patriots, but not as high scoring as Vegas thinks. I will take the under, 21-17. Even if both teams are having offensive problems, their defenses are just fine.
MNF
WASHINGTON -2.5 (37) OVER PITTSBURGH
I may be all wet on this one, but Campbell is interception free and Pittsburgh is prone to dumb plays as witnessed last week against the Giants. It will be close, but being at home was the deciding factor I like the Skins, as they try to stay ahead of the Cowboys and Eagles for the wild card. Skins 20-17.
Well, we are approaching the mid way point of the 2008-09 season. One more major upset occured as the Rams deposed of the Cowboys with ease. Who would have thought that the preseason Super Bowl pick by most experts, would be closer to the cellar in the NFC East than the top, and the pick to finish last in that division would be leading it. It continues to be a up side down season that is for sure.
Something has happened in St Louis as they beat two leading contenders in the last two weeks. I wasn't holding my breath when the Rams changed coaches, but something has kicked started them into gear and they are playing well on both sides of the ball.
We will have to see if that works out for the 49ers this weekend who just fired Nolan a couple days ago, of course they are playing one of the worst teams in the league and one of the most disappointing, so I guess anything can and will happen if this trend continues.
Tennessee and Tampa Bay continues to roll and no one is more surprised than I am. In the AFC South I pictured the Colts and Jags would battle it out for the division title and they may well in the end. Seems to me the best thing to happen to the Titans was when Vince Young went down.
The Bucs seem to be able to get a lot of milage out of a much traveled reject and he has led them almost faultlessly. Indianapolis offense continues to slide and the Packers have put themselves back into the hunt with back to back wins. Pittsburgh continues to win, with the hot Titans and the surprising Bills leading the pack in the AFC.
On the down side of the game are Detroit and Cincinnati who continue their long quest of being the door mat for the rest of both divisions. No real surprises there, nor is there in Kansas City. A disappointing Seattle being close behnd and all above teams hopes for the playoffs are long gone. I see about eight or nine teams will be eliminated by this weekend.
The middle of all the divisions continue to bunch up and the top teams seems to be placing themselves in a position for a final push at the playoffs.
Last week I was 9-5, even with the upsets, for the year I'm now 62-40 (.607) using the point spread I'm now 70-32 (.687).
My picks for this week are as follows:
TAMPA BAY +1.5 (40) OVER DALLAS
Johnson will start again this Sunday for the Cowboys who are in disarray both on the and off the field. The Bucs will beat Dallas and put Wade Phillips job in jeopardy as the Cowboys fickle owner gets impatient again. Bucs win but close, 21-20.
WASHINGTON -9 (40) OVER DETROIT
The Lions will win a couple games this season but not his week as the Skins win in the motor city, 24-16, however the Lions will cover the spread.
BUFFALO -1.5 (42) OVER MIAMI
Miami after a fast start, has come down to reality and the Bills will put the nail into their coffin so to speak. Beating the Patriots doesn't seem so great anymore. Bills win in Miami 24-17.
NEW ENGLAND -7 (43) OVER ST LOUIS
The glamor of the Patriots has worn thin without Brady at the helm, but being at home will do the trick this week as they will beat a up and coming Rams team, 24-20. I pick the Rams to cover the spread however.
NEW ORLEANS +3 (46) OVER SAN DIEGO
Brees will out duel Rivers thru the air, no question about that, but since there will be no Bush, that leaves McAllister to out duel Tomlinson. I will take Brees to get the job done in a high scoring game. 27-20.
NEW YORK JETS -13 (39) OVER KANSAS CITY
Kansas City may win another game this year, but it won't be on the road. Favre seems to be shooting himself in the foot off the field, however this game will be played between the white lines and the Jets will win 24-14, I pick the Chiefs to cover the spread.
PHILADELPHIA -9 (45) OVER ATLANTA
The Eagles still have something left in them and the Falcons have improved vastly over last year, Matt Ryan has Falcons fans forgetting who that other guy was. This game will be a lot closer than the nine points given by Vegas odd makers, but being at home I will go with the Eagles but close, Atlanta will win the point spread but Philadelphia will win the game, 24-21.
CAROLINA -4 (44) OVER ARIZONA
The Panthers have been blowing out opponents with their defense and offensive game. This week will be a shoot out but most of the shooting will be done by Carolina, 28-17.
BALTIMORE -7 (36) OVER OAKLAND
Two teams who have trouble scoring will tangle in the low scoring defensive contest with the Ravens winning at home, 19-17. However the Raiders will cover the point spread.
JACKSONVILLE -7 (42) OVER CLEVELAND
The Jaguars can at times look like they belong in the playoffs and other times wish they belonged. Cleveland had one good game and now its time for reality, Jacksonville wins at home, 28-14.
HOUSTON -9.5 (44) OVER CINCINNATI
Cincinnati sucks, what more can I say, the boring game of the week. Texans, as long as they can hang onto the ball will win big 34-10.
SAN FRANCISCO -5 (41) OVER SEATTLE
No wait the Texan/Bengals game will not be the boring game of the week, this game will be hands down. Two teams in complete disarray, one who has replaced their coach and the other who can't seem to come up with quarterback or a game plan. Nothing more needs to be said except the 49ers have a better defense with the offensives a wash, 49ers win at home28-13.
NEW YORK GIANTS +2.5 (43) OVER PITTSBURGH
This should be the game of the week. Even if the Giants have been struggling the last two weeks, look for them to beat the Steelers who also have been struggling. I don't count the Steelers win over Cincinnati as anything special, the giants win 24-20.
MNF
TENNESSEE -4 (42) OVER INDIANAPOLIS
Has the Colts impressed anyone this season? Not me. The Titans have proven to be the teams to beat in the AFC, Tennessee wins on MNF 28-14.
Upsets and more upsets. This has been the weirdest football season I've seen in many years. Two teams that haven't won all year jump up and win their first game on the same weekend. While last years Super Bowl winner didn't look like a Super Bowl team and was stuffed by a also ran.
Two pre-season picks, Seattle who continues to play like they are in a different league and New Orleans who are a long way from being out of it but both are still in the cellar of their respective divisions.
Houston, coming back from a lost the week before, that was a comedy of errors, to win in the last three seconds this week. The Rams beating a team who thought the next three weeks were a shoe-in for wins and run away with the lead in the NFC East. The Giants lose to the much maligned Browns in a romp! Was it only because Tennessee, the only undefeated team left, had a bye week that saved their butts, maybe.
The top and bottom of the NFL gets a little closer to the middle and each passing week it becomes a little harder to pick the winners. Last season seemed like a cake walk compared to this season.
But pick I must and after a 8-6 week I go to 53-35 (.602) for the season, 62-26 (.704) using the point spread. Come on NFL lay off the constant upsets. Play like your're suppose to.
BUFFALO -1 (45) OVER SAN DIEGO
Flip a coin! The Chargers inconsistences this season is their own down fall. I'm taking the Bills because after a long plane ride the Chargers will be their inconsistent self. I'm taking the Bills 24-21.
CAROLINA -3 (45) OVER NEW ORLEANS
The Panthers were smacked last week and the Saints ripped the Raiders. So why am I picking the Panthers. It's the year of the upsets, although this won't be considered an upset, I will take Carolina anyway, 27-17.
CHICAGO -3 (38) OVER MINNESOTA
Chicago is geared to stop the run and that's all the Vikings got. Chicago's defense beats Minnesota's 21-17.
PITTSBURGH -9.5 (35) OVER CINCINNATI
Because the Steelers are playing the hapless Bengals. Pittsburgh keeps Cincinnati winless, 21-14.
TENNESSEE -8 (35) OVER KANSAS CITY
Tennessee will roar into Kansas City and leave with a hard fought 20-14 win to remain the only undefeated team.
MIAMI -3 (36) OVER BALTIMORE
The Ravens road troubles continue this week as the Dolphins win a close one, 21-14.
NEW YORK GIANTS -9.5 (46) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
If you think the lost to the Browns last week will slow down the Giants I got a bridge to sell you. The 49ers continue to slide, Giants win 28-17.
DALLAS -6.5 (36) OVER ST LOUIS
I don't care who the quarterback is, or who is suspended, the Cowboys have to many other weapons and will dispose of the Rams in St Louis 27-9.
HOUSTON -8.5 (47) OVER DETROIT
Houston got their first win (should have been their second) last week and the Lions are still looking for their first, but this isn't the time or place yet, Texans 28-20.
INDIANAPOLIS -1 (47) OVER GREEN BAY
Beating Seattle is no accomplishment, and the Packers quarterback is still on the mend, the Colts on the other hand are healthy and wise, Colts win 30-17.
NEW YORK JETS -3 (42) OVER OAKLAND
Look for Favre to unload on the Raiders in the Bay area this weekend. Close but no cigar for the Raiders, Jets win 21-20.
WASHINGTON -7 (42) OVER CLEVELAND
The skins were embarrassed last week and the Browns pulled off a major upset. While the Browns are reading about it in the paper, the Skins will get back to playing football and whip the Browns 28-14.
SNF
TAMPA BAY -10 (36) OVER SEATTLE
Seattle is down to their third quarterback in the last two weeks. Don't look for any improvement this week against a tough opponent as the Bucs will prove to be. Buccaneers with ease in Tampa Bay. Maybe the success of the Rays has shown the Bucs they can win also, and they will 28-9.
MNF
DENVER +3 (48) OVER NEW ENGLAND
Denver's maligned defense is going up against New Enland's maligned defense. But the Bronco's offense is so far ahead of the Patriots this season I have to go with a mild upset, well maybe not an upset, but against the ####ed up Pats I still see Denver coming out on top, 28-20.
Week six and already some teams have eliminated themselves. A couple of the worst teams eliminated themselves after the first kickoff of their first game of the season, and I will name, names.
Let's start with St Louis. The Rams are the worst of the worst and prove it week after week. The coaching change in St Louis will have no effect on the rest of the Ram's season. Close behind are the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals. A whopping 0-17 for those four sorry teams. Houston has lost control of themselves and any chance they had with their latest lost at home to the Colts. Not so much the lost but the way they lost. The Bengals and Lions haven't had any control of themselves and will continue to lose, home and away.
Kansas City had their season high against the Bronco and don't look for anything consistent out of them the rest of the season. Oakland and Cleveland have played themselves out of any possible chance to win a playoff spot and this is only after five weeks. Seattle looks like a Pop Warner football team at times and Minnesota is close behind. If the Vikings can't seem to figure it out why they can't win a playoff spot with only a running game, what can I say
Philadelphia is in too tough of a division to advance and Green Bay seems to be going in the wrong direction since they had a quarterback change as are Jacksonville and the Chargers. Although I won't count the Jaguars, Chargers and the Packers out as yet, they better play one heck of a lot more consistently they have shown so far this season.
Seattle is another team who, right now, are terrible, however still have a chance to win their division because of the weak teams that they will play against within their division. They are only one and a half game out of first place with two games to play against the Cardinals. Seattle seems to have a problem putting together a game plan and if they have one the coaching staff doesn't seem to tell the players what it is. I think, and I have said this before, when Seattle announced a coaching change for next season, that the Hawks made a big mistake making Mora their future head coach and then letting Jim Zorn slip away.
Let's look at this and these teams in a different light. Of the eleven teams I have picked out as having little chance to win a playoff spot, those eleven teams have a combined win total of ten wins, (10-39). If you take out the Eagles, Vikings and Packers out of that mix, the remaining eight teams have a grand total of four wins (4-30). Need I say more.
Last week I ran my overall record to 45-29 and using the point spread I use for every game, I am 54-20 (.730) for the season.
Let's get down and dirty with my picks for this week.
