Week six and already some teams have eliminated themselves. A couple of the worst teams eliminated themselves after the first kickoff of their first game of the season, and I will name, names.
Let's start with St Louis. The Rams are the worst of the worst and prove it week after week. The coaching change in St Louis will have no effect on the rest of the Ram's season. Close behind are the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals. A whopping 0-17 for those four sorry teams. Houston has lost control of themselves and any chance they had with their latest lost at home to the Colts. Not so much the lost but the way they lost. The Bengals and Lions haven't had any control of themselves and will continue to lose, home and away.
Kansas City had their season high against the Bronco and don't look for anything consistent out of them the rest of the season. Oakland and Cleveland have played themselves out of any possible chance to win a playoff spot and this is only after five weeks. Seattle looks like a Pop Warner football team at times and Minnesota is close behind. If the Vikings can't seem to figure it out why they can't win a playoff spot with only a running game, what can I say
Philadelphia is in too tough of a division to advance and Green Bay seems to be going in the wrong direction since they had a quarterback change as are Jacksonville and the Chargers. Although I won't count the Jaguars, Chargers and the Packers out as yet, they better play one heck of a lot more consistently they have shown so far this season.
Seattle is another team who, right now, are terrible, however still have a chance to win their division because of the weak teams that they will play against within their division. They are only one and a half game out of first place with two games to play against the Cardinals. Seattle seems to have a problem putting together a game plan and if they have one the coaching staff doesn't seem to tell the players what it is. I think, and I have said this before, when Seattle announced a coaching change for next season, that the Hawks made a big mistake making Mora their future head coach and then letting Jim Zorn slip away.
Let's look at this and these teams in a different light. Of the eleven teams I have picked out as having little chance to win a playoff spot, those eleven teams have a combined win total of ten wins, (10-39). If you take out the Eagles, Vikings and Packers out of that mix, the remaining eight teams have a grand total of four wins (4-30). Need I say more.
Last week I ran my overall record to 45-29 and using the point spread I use for every game, I am 54-20 (.730) for the season.
Let's get down and dirty with my picks for this week.
ATLANTA +3 (43) OVER CHICAGO
This game is against the grain and its my upset of the week. I pick the Falcons to win at home. Why? I think Atlanta's quarterback is an up and coming star and the Bears quarterback is just an ordinary run of the mill quarterback. Besides, the Falcons are at home. Atlanta 24-20.
MIAMI +3 (45) OVER HOUSTON
The Texans have to be still in shell shock over the melt down last week, Miami is playing too well and will beat the Texans using their defense, 27-17.
INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 (37) OVER BALTIMORE
The come from behind win last week will energize the Colts and Baltimore's offense hasn't been showing up much lately. Defensively the two teams are a good match up but the Colts are at home, Indianapolis 20-17.
MINNESOTA -13 (45) OVER DETROIT
The Vikings will finally play someone they can run over and the run is all they got, but it will be enough to beat the lowly Lions 31-14.
NEW ORLEANS -8 (47) OVER OAKLAND
Brees is on top of his game as is Bush, and the pass happy Saints will fly by the Raiders. The Saints will just have to play smarter than last week. New Orleans 28-20.
NEW YORK JETS -6 (45) OVER CINCINNATI
A potential shoot out, however the Jets with Favre will do all the shooting , Jets at home 24-10.
TAMPA BAY -1.5 (37) OVER CAROLINA
This game could go into overtime. It is a classic toss up. Being the Bucs are at home I will give them the nod, 20-17 OT.
WASHINGTON -13 (44) OVER ST LOUIS
Not much doubt in this one, Jim Zorn's Skins will crush the helpless Rams 34-10.
DENVER -3.5 (49) OVER JACKSONVILLE
This is a tough game to pick, but I will take the Broncos to win in a high scoring, no holds bared, Katie bar the door, old fashion shoot out. If you like old style AFL type football this is the game to watch, Denver at home 28-21.
DALLAS -5.5 (50) OVER ARIZONA
This will be tougher than the Cowboys think, but Dallas will air it out and the Cardinals will not have enough answers to stop TO and the Dallas attack. Dallas in a high scoring game, but most of it will be on the Cowboys side, 30-20.
PHILADELPHIA -5 (43) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
Defensively I don't think the 49ers can keep up with the Eagles. The 49ers have allowed a pot full of sacks this season and the Eagles are geared defensively to rush the quarterback and this week will be all Eagles, 28-14.
SEATTLE -2.5 (46) OVER GREEN BAY
Both teams are in a flunk. I almost picked the Packers because of the Pop Warner type football the Hawks displayed last week in the Big Apple. But the Packers can't even win at home, so the Hawks will win this one and get back into the hunt, 24-21. But it won't be easy.
SNF
SAN DIEGO -6 (45) OVER NEW ENGLAND
My head tells me the Chargers are done for the year, however remember the Chargers were in this same position last year. The Patriots continues to struggle, but somehow manages to win. The string will run out this week on SNF. Chargers will win at home 24-21.
MNF
NEW YORK GIANTS -8 (43) OVER CLEVELAND
Get real, the Browns......Giants win with room to spare, 28-14.
Well here we go into week five of the 2008-09 NFL football season. Last week we had, as we have every week, upsets and some games that weren't so surprising. Kansas City beating Denver and Washington beating Dallas were, in my opinion, major upsets. Chicago beating the Eagles was a mild upset but not totally surprising. I called both the Bengals/Browns and the Packers/Bucs game to be close and they were, however not the way I predicted. I picked the Steelers to win a close game and they did. I said the Jets/Cardinals game would be very high scoring, and it was, so on and so on.
Injuries continue to be a bugaboo for most teams and some will be critical in the up-coming weeks. Even some suspensions will have a impact on some top teams. In Dallas, right on cue with a Cowboys loss, TO has his mid-season blow-up, and only time will tell if it will have any effect on the Cowboys. But hey, that's football and all teams have to deal with it one way or the other.
There were coaching changes in both St Louis and Oakland. Don't look for for anything different in those two cities. Both teams started their game on Sunday strong but as we have come accustom to they faded and were firmly beaten.While I'm at it, look for a few more coaching changes to come in other cities, Cincinnati comes to mind right off.
Last week wasn't one of my finest, but 8-5 under the circumstances wasn't that bad. For the season I am still over .650 and 39-21 overall. I promise I will try to do better this week.
Lets get started with week five's predictions.
BALTIMORE +3 (34) OVER TENNESSEE
I'm picking the Ravens in a mild upset this week. Baltimore will have to pick up their offense, but their defense will win this game at home. Terry Collins age will catch up to him and the Titans. Ravens 17-16.
CAROLINA -9.5 (38.5) OVER KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs had their game last week and the Panthers will continue to roll. Carolina with ease 28-10.
CHICAGO -3.5 (44.5) OVER DETROIT
The Lions have no running game and the Bears will focus on Kitna and will win going away, but not in a romp as the Lions will put up a good fight for about three quarters. Bears 27-17.
GREEN BAY -no line- OVER ATLANTA
Look for the Packers to rebound against the Falcons. After the last two weeks the Packers will be out to prove they are contenders. If they can't win this one, well, you figure it out. Green Bay in a cake walk, 28-10.
HOUSTON +3 (47) OVER INDIANAPOLIS
Houston always seems to play well at home and the ####ed up Colts will limp out of Houston with more problems then when they arrived, in a high scoring game, Texans 27-20.
SAN DIEGO -6.5 (45) OVER MIAMI
Too much LT and Rivers. The Dolphins had their season's high with a win at NE and now its time for reality to check in. Chargers win but close, 24-21.
NEW YORK GIANTS -7 (43.5) OVER SEATTLE
The Giants will be in for a fall soon, but not this week. Seattle will have to prove they have a consistence passing game and defend against the pass, but not this week as the Giants win 24-20.
PHILADELPHIA -6 (42.5) OVER WASHINGTON
The Skins have shown they belong, at least for a while. The Eagle's defense will run over the Skins, 27-14. However my hat is off to Jim Zorn for doing a fine coachiing job so far and is heads and shoulders over other coaches for 'Coach of the Year' award after four games that is.
DENVER -3.5 (48) OVER TAMPA BAY
Don't look for Griese to carry the Bucs in mile high territory. The Broncos will bounce back from an embarrassing loss last week to bury the Bucs, 27-21.
BUFFALO +1 (44.5) OVER ARIZONA
This game willl be a toss up and a possible shoot out. But Warner and the Cardinals are prone to turnoveers and this will be the key to the game. Bills win a close game, 24-21.
DALLAS -17 (44) OVER CINCINNATI
You got to be kidding, after the Cowboys get beat by the Redskins, they get a team like the Bengals to kick around on Sunday? I hope this game is blacked out in Cincinnati, Cowboys 34-10 in spite of TO's mouth.
NEW ENGLAND -3 (41.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Patriots are hurting at the quarterback position, but they will have enough to take the 49ers to the bank. The 49ers prize quarterback has shown his weaknesses and the Pats will pound them for a 24-15 win.
SNF
JACKSONVILLE -4 (36) OVER PITTSBURGH
This will be the show down for two hope-to-be also rans. It may also be a preview of the AFC wild card game. I will take Jacksonville in a low scoring close game, 19-17.
MNF
NEW ORLENAS -3 (46.5) OVER MINNESOTA
The Vikings continue to struggle with passing the ball, and teams have taken advantage of that and controlled Peterson and the Vikings ground game, Look for Brees to roll up and pass over the Vikings 30-17.
Well that my picks for this week and I got a feeling that some of these games will be decided by tournovers and the kicking game.
Entering week four, the first week of open dates, (well, except for the game that was washed away by a storm in Texas) most of the teams are hurting due to injuries. Some teams like Seattle will really benefit from the week off and should enter into the Giants game healthy. I said healthy not necessarily ready. Others like the Patriots, who seem on the decline in spite of injuries, the week off won't make that much difference. Injuries have played a major part so far in the number of win and loses. The top teams a year ago are moving more toward the middle and the lower teams last year are moving up. It makes for a very interesteing season to see who moves up or down in the standings.
Last week I hit 12 of 16 of my predictions correctly. For the season after three weeks I'm 31-16 and .660. The Bears OT loss and the Patriots loss was my biggest missed games, also it didn't help when I picked Green Bay to upset the Cowboys, should have know better.
Well lets get started with the first bye weeks predictions, week four, a work in progress.
CINCINNATI -3.5 (44.5) OVER CLEVELAND
I think the Browns know its all over for the year. The Bengals showed a little spark last week against the Giants. I don't know if that means the Bengals are that improved or the weaknesses of the Giants are starting to show. Anyway, in a toss up the Bengals 23-21.
JACKSONVILLE -7.5 (42.5) OVER HOUSTON
Another road game for the Texans and another road loss for the Texans. Jacksonville wins a big one on the road last week and will win a big one at home this week, Jaguars 23-21.
CAROLINA -7 (39.5) OVER ATLANTA
Atlanta isn't facing either KC or Detroit (their two wins) this week and Carolina will remind them of that fact. The Falcons will have a rude awakening on Carolina's home field, 24.14.
NEW YORK JETS -1.5 (45) OVER ARIZONA
Another toss up and the home team will win and that is about the only reason I can think of. Two of the oldest quarterbacks in the NFL will face off in this one, the better of those two will come out on top where defense will go out the window, Jets 24.21.
TENNESSEE -3 (36) OVER MINNESOTA
Speaking of old quarterbacks.....Terry Collins and Gus Frerotte! It seems like old quarterback get together week. The Vikings lack any kind of passing game and the Titans will zero in on their running. so I will pick the oldie at home and this is the Titans of course, 21-14.
GREEN BAY +1 (42.5) OVER TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay isn't Dallas, not even close and neither is GB, Chicago. Look for the Pack to regain their playoff form in this one. Griese (another oldie) arm will be worn out for the rest of the season if he throws another 67 passes. The Packers win away 21-20.
NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (48.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO
This will be a shoot out with the last team standing the winner. Because the Saints are at home and have the better quarterback, I will give them the nod, 27-21.
DENVER -10 (46.5) OVER KANSAS CITY
Denver won't have to play defense against the hapless Chiefs, the Chiefs don't have an offense and probably couldn't score against a good high school team. Denver in a romp 36-10.
BUFFALO -8 (41.5) OVER ST LOUIS
The Rams are about as low as a team can get. There must be something in the water in Missouri because both of their teams haven't won a game and don't look for that to change this weekend. Buffalo without breaking a sweat, 28-13.
SAN DIEGO -7.5 (45.5) OVER OAKLAND
Oakland played the Bills tough enough to win but alas, the cream always comes to the top and the curds always sink to the bottom. The Chargers will stir the pot a little more this week and win big, 28-17.
DALLAS -11 (46) OVER WASHINGTON
I picked the Redskins to finish last in the NFC East and they will show us why this weekend. Dallas has too much and Washington has too little, the Cowboys will win and with ease, 27-19.
SNF
PHILADELPHIA -3 (40.5) OVER CHICAGO
The Eagles defense ran over the Steelers offense last week and look for more of the same this week against a suspect Bears team. Philly 24-14.
MNF
PITTSBURGH -5.5 (34.5) OVER BALTIMORE
With the injuries problems that the Steelers have, look for a close game, but because Pittsburgh is at home and on MNF I will go with them, 17-16.
PICKS AND PANS FOR THE 3rd WEEK OF THE 2008-90 SEASON
John Madden once said, 'There are playoff teams and teams who make the playoffs'. As this season unfolds I see a lot of teams who could make the playoffs but none that stand out as a playoff team. The so called playoff teams are looking to survive and not doing a very good job of it so far. Granted injuries have put a damper on some teams chances at this point of the season. In fact injuries have had a major impact on some well respected teams. Jacksonville and Seattle come to mind right off and of course the injury to Tom Brady. But injuries are a part of the game, and it seems this year they are wide spread and are having a definite impact on some teams chances to make the playoffs. Don't look for any team to go through the season with less then three or four loses. In fact some teams that are doing well now are just one key injury away from a mediocre season.
Last week I was a mediocre 9-6, losing games in the last seconds and winning a game in the last seconds. For the season I'm 19-12, .613.
Well here goes week three of the 2008-09 NFL football season.
PHILADELPHIA-3.5 (45) OVER PITTSBURGH
This game will be another toss up, and maybe a shoot out. I will take the Eagles because they are at home 27-21.
JACKSONVILLE +5.5 (41.5) OVER INDIANAPOLIS
Both teams are struggling, but Jacksonville needs this win if they want to be in the hunt. Jaguars in a close one, 21-20.
NEW ENGLAND -12.5 (36.5) OVER MIAMI
Even with the Patriots being short handed at quarterback they will have enough to power over the Dolphins at home, 27-10.
MINNESOTA -3 (37.5) OVER CAROLINA
The Vikings maybe limited to just a running game and even if Peterson is out, it will be enough to beat the Panthers, 24-14.
DENVER -5.5 (51) OVER NEW ORLEANS
D-fence won't play a major part in this game, it may depend on who has the ball last. The Broncos in a shoot-out 27-24.
NEW YORK GIANTS -13 (41.5) OVER CINCINNATI
The Giants seem to keep coming up against teams that aren't very good, their coming down will happen, but not today as the Giants win big 28-13.
SEATTLE -9.5 (44) OVER ST LOUIS
This game is what Seattle needs, a team that can't score and can't stop anyone from scoring in the air or on the ground. Only Detroit has allowed more points than the Rams, Seattle 28-17.
BUFFALO -9 (36.5) OAKLAND
Oakland got their win for the first half of the season, Buffalo in a romp, 27-10.
WASHINGTON -3 (42.5) OVER ARIZONA
Jim Zorn and the Skins seems to have found a decent defense and they will need it this day. Washington in a close one, 21-20.
TENNESSEE -5 (39) OVER HOUSTON
Houston on the road again and another lost. Titans without Young and maybe for a long time will still win 21-17.
CHICAGO -3.5 (35.5) OVER TAMPA BAY
If and when the Bucs settle on a decent quarterback they may win a few games, but until that day and this isn't one of them, the Bears will win 19-17.
CLEVELAND +2 (38.5) OVER BALTIMORE
This is a must win for the Browns. If they don't its most likely over for this year. Browns win 21-19.
SAN FRANCISCO -4 (46.5) OVER DETROIT
The Lions will make it a game until Kitna has to throw the ball. 49ers will pull away at the end with a 27-20 win.
ATLANTA -4 (36.5) OVER KANSAS CITY
Atlanta will rebound against a so-so Chiefs team, but it will be close, Falcons win 19-17.
SNF
SAN DIEGO -8.5 (44.5) OVER NEW YORK JETS
Reality will set in for the Jets in this one and Favre will not be able to come to the rescue. The Chargers will win at home28-14.
MNF
GREEN BAY +3 (51) OVER DALLAS
Dallas has been less than impressive and GB is at home, tough for anyone and tough for the Cowboys, Packers will win in a high scoring game, 28-24.
Don't look for anyone to stand out this week. Your comments are always welcome.
This past week the only team to lose in the NFC West was the Rams who were blown out by the Steelers big time. Seattle won easily against a rather poor Ravens team. The 49ers upset the Bucs in San Francisco, which in my opinin, isn't that big of an upset and Arizona derailed the Falcons in overtime after blowing a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Last week the Green Bay Packers were humiliated by the Bears in Chicago. If you remember I almost picked the Bears to upset the Packers but changed my mind at the last minute. The Bills stayed with the Giants and lead going into the 4th quarter, but too many mistakes cost the Bill at the end. I thought the 49ers/Bucs game would be close and it was, but in favor of the 49ers. For the week I was a very respectable 12-4 and for the year I am 144-75.
My picks for week 17 are:
Note: Before I make my picks please remember most playoff teams will rest their players, some early on and some later, so this week's picks are the most difficult of the season for that reason. The two toughest weeks to pick winners are the first and the last, in fact because of that reason I skipped the first week of the season completely.
SATURDAY - NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
The question here is whether the Patriots will rest their front line players or will they go for the record? I think they will play their front line players at least until the game is in hand. Maybe deep into the third quarter. Don't let the hype fool you, Belichick and all the players want all the records, Pats will win on the road 28-17 to complete an undefeated season.
SEATTLE OVER ATLANTA
This is a meaningless game for the Seahawks and knowing Holmgren 'let them off the hook' style, I dread this game with a passion. Holmgren teams play down to the the level of the bad teams and Atlanta is a bad team. But look for the Hawks to exploit the mistakes of the Falcons and squeak out a win, lets say 21-13.
GREEN BAY OVER DETROIT
Detroit was just barely able to beat a bad Kansas City team last week while the Packers were humiliated by a suspect Bears team. You may think the Packers would have the advantage playing in Green Bay with winter well set in, but last weeks lost in Chicago was also wintery weather and they still lost and lost badly. But look for home heating and home cooking to be in the Packers favor and they win 24-10.
CINCINNATI OVER MIAMI
No, the Dolphins will not finish the season with their second win. Cincinnati willl squeak out the win in Miami 24-20.
CHICAGO OVER NEW ORLEANS
The Saints will go into cold, windy and unfriendly Chicago and leave the windy city with a bad taste and a disappointing season as the Bears will win in a low scoring battle of frozen football players and fans. Bears 17-14. The forecast? 30 degrees and snow which doesn't favor the warm weather Saints.
JACKSONVILLE OVER HOUSTON
Houston plays well at home, but the Jaguars want to go into the playoffs with momentum and will not rest any of their players until the game is well in hand. Jags 27-19.
PHILADELPHIA OVER BUFFALO
This may be the last game for McNabb in Philadelphia and again it may not. If Donovan can have an impressive game he will most likely be back. Wins have a way of shutting up critics and win the Eagles will, 24-20.
TAMPA BAY OVER CAROLINA
Here's news for you, the Vegas odds makers have the Panthers a three point favorite. TB will not rest their players for the playoffs. They are not good enough to be able to rest anyone as shown by losing two of the last three, and both loses to bottom feeders. But the Bucs are at home where they play fairly well and will win over another, well maybe not a bottom feeder, but a poor team for sure 17-14.
CLEVELAND OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Browns are fighting for their playoff lives, and can't afford to rest their front line players against a surging 49ers. Playing at home they will win 24-17.
WASHINGTON OVER DALLAS
I think the Dallas Cowboys will rest some of their players and the Redskins will take advantage as they still have a chance for the playoffs if they win. In fact if they win they are in the playoffs. Washington wins in a mild upset at home, 21-20.
PITTSBURGH OVER BALTIMORE
The once proud Ravens are a team in disarray and the Steelers will pounce on them. Look for coaching changes in Baltimore before next season. Steelers win easily 24-13.
SAN DIEGO OVER OAKLAND
The Chargers are anotheer team who may rest some of their players, but against the Raiders it won't make much difference. San Diego will win in Oakland, 21-17.
MINNESOTA OVER DENVER
Look for a possibe coaching change in the Mile High city next year. Whether it is through retirement or firing, it will happen. Fans in Denver are used to winning and that is not happening as Denver has suffered though the worst drought in recent memory and Minnesota is still alive, if Washington loses and they pull out a win. The Vikings win in Denver but close, 24-10.
ARIZONA OVER ST LOUIS
Arizona and St Louis? The only thing this game will accomplish is if the Rams lose they will get a higher draft pick. The Rams will lose and get their higher draft pick. Cardinals win at home, 24-17.
NEW YORK JETS OVER KANSAS CITY
Come on sports fans, who care who wins between these two teams? The 3-12 Jets will beat the 4-11 Chiefs in the rain/snow of New Jersey, 19-14.
SNF - INDIANAPOLIS OVER TENNESSEE
Manning verus Young, Manning wins hands down. Also the Colts win hands down 34-17.
Again I will combine my Pans (week 15) and Picks for week 16 due to a the game being played tonight.
The NFC West continues to struggle going into the second to the last week of the season.
Seattle was upset by the Carolina Panthers who had only won one game at home all season and quite frankly are not a very good football team without Jake Delhomme. The Seahawks blew a chance to prove they belong with the elite teams of the NFL by losing this game. Carolina's defense shut down the Hawks most of the day or was it the Hawks shut down themselves by poor play calling and/or poor execution. If you saw the game, I will let you decide.
Arizona Cardinals were no match for the Saints and went down to defeat in New Orleans. Drew Brees' 87% pass completions proved more than the Cards defense could over come. Arizona's offense continues to impress in a losing cause with the aging Curt Warner at the helm.
San Francisco upset win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals was the only win by the West this past week. The 49ers are on their 4th or 5th quarterback this season. Maybe they finally have found one they can stick with or at least until he gets hurt. The 49ers seem to have a problem protecting their quarterbacks.
The Rams were dismantled by the Green Bay Packers, although the game was close until the second half when Favre put the game away by wearing down the Rams defense.
This past week had a few of the playoff teams go down to defeat and resulted in four of my missed picks. Time to party in South Florida, Miami won for the first time this year. Pittsburgh losing to the Jaguars was not a complete surprise and the game did go down to the final quarter before it was decided. I think the two biggest upsets were the Eagles beating the Cowboys in Dallas and the Skins beating the Giants in New York.
For the week I was 10-6, which is about my average and for the year I'm 132-71.
Week 16 picks are as follows:
THURSDAY - PITTSBURGH OVER ST LOUIS
Pittsburgh will be fighting for their divisional title lives going into this game, with the Browns breathing down their necks, the Steelers will go into St Louis and win 24-17.
SATURDAY - DALLAS OVER CAROLINA
Dallas will not go into Carolina and lose to an injury ridden team like Seattle did. Romo, if his injured thumb is okay will lead the Cowboys to victory, but if some backup quarterback plays the Cowboys will still win, 31-13.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
CINCINNATI OVER CLEVELAND
I think the string has run out on the Browns title hopes and playing in Cincinnati against a team who has a better overall offense and a better overall defense, the Browns will fall to the Bengals 21-10.
DETROIT OVER KANSAS CITY
The string of loses by the Lions will end this week at home, but they better hold down their turnovers or it could go the other way. Kansas City has no running game and in fact is not much of an offensive threat even to the Lions. Detroit wins 24-14.
INDIANAPOLIS OVER HOUSTON
The Colts have had a lot of injuries this year and seem to be getting their players back at the right time. All this does is strengthen the Colts in their quest to repeat as Super champion. Whether they can derail the train, also known as the New England Patriots, will have to be seen. Houston has been playing better lately but not good enough to win on the road in Indianapolis, Colts win 33-14.
GREEN BAY OVER CHICAGO
I almost picked the Bears to upset the Packers, but the Favre factor made me decide to stick with the Packers. The bears defense has shown some consistence lately, but Green Bay has too many weapons for the Bears to handle. Packers win in Chicago but it will be close, 24-20.
BUFFALO OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
The least impressive team in the playoff picture at the moment, is the New York Giants. Offensively they are more down than up. Their turnovers are killing any chance they have advancing past the first round in the playoffs. The Bills continue to show improvement despite the shutout lost to the Browns in a driving snow strom. The Bills will beat the Giants at home, 21-13.
JACKSONVILLE OVER OAKLAND
Oakland continues to be a very scrappy team and will give the Jags all they can handle with their defense just as the Colts found out last week. But Jacksonville has shown a lot of offense of late and will beat the Raiders at home 31-21.
TAMPA BAY OVER SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco may have found a qurterback, wait I think I said that three or four times already this year. San Francisco's winning streak will end at one. The Bucs and Garcia will win in SF 24-17. But look for a closer game than some of the so-called experts predict.
ARIZONA OVER ATLANTA
Atlanta continues their nose dive this week in Glanedale, Arizona. The Cardinals are a 10-point favorite in Vegas. I can't remember anytime the Cards were a 10-point favorite against anyone. But I agree with the odds makers this time and 10 points sounds about right. Arizona wins 24-14.
PHILADELPHIA OVER NEW ORLEANS
McNabb looked sharp against the Cowboys and will continue to come back from injuries to beat the Saints this week. Don't look for Brees to complete 87% of his passes against the Eagles. Philadelphia wins 24-20.
NEW ENGLAND OVER MIAMI
Wow, the Dolphins finally won a game. But don't look for the Dolphins to go into New England, who are a 22-point favorite, and improve on the 2007 winning streak of one. This isn't tropical South Florida and the Patriots will crush Miami in the cold weather with ease, 34-10.
SEATTLE OVER BALTIMORE
It scares me when Holmgrem makes the statement that Seattle will continue to run the ball. Run the ball, with whom? Seattle has no running game, zero. Holmgrem, stick with what works, pass the ball 90% of the time. Whew! The Ravens embarrassed themselves, losing to the Dolphins and will lose to the Seahawks in Seattle, 28-13.
TENNESSEE OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
The Jets defense looked good against the Patriots last week but the Jets offense continues to struggle scoring points, look for the same results in Tennessee as the Titans win 24-13.
SNF - MINNESOTA OVER WASHINGTON
Neither team look impressive this past week. Both played very sloppily and were lucky to come away with wins. But this game could be very interesting due to the fact if washington upsets the Vikings they would be tied with the Vikings and the wild card would be decided in the last week of the season. Look for the Vikings to clinch the last wild card position by winning at home in a hard fought game, 24-21.
MNF - SAN DIEGO OVER DENVER
Look for San Diego and LaDainian Tomlinson to continue to roll into the playoffs. This week it will be over the up and down Broncos. Chargers to win with ease in San Diego 28-13.
Back to business as usual for the Western division of the NFC as three of the teams went down to defeat and none of the three games were even close. The San Francisco 49ers continue their downward spiral and is destined to remain in the cellar in the division for the remainder of the season. A Meaningless touchdown in the second half was all the offense the 49ers could muster and what little they did show was offset by five turnover. Defensively the 49ers became one of the few teams able to shut down Adrian Perterson, but with another quarterback biting the dust, it seemed to me the 49ers were basically just going thru the motions. I hope the New England Patriots like the high first round pick received from the 49ers. The lost of that pick will hurt the 49ers more than it will help the Patriots which doesn't really need more help.
The Seattle Seahawks ripped the Arizona Cardinals and won out right the NFC West title. The Hawks showed their dominance over the Cardinals from the first quarter on by jumping off to a 24-0 lead before Arizona scored just before half. Five picks by Seattle, three by Trufant, was the downfall of Warner and the Cardinals. Again the special teams play shows the only weakness in the Seattle game at this time.
The Rams should have won this game but couldn't sustain any drives until the third quarter when they scored their lone touchdown. The Rams could only muster 10 first downs against a suspect Bengal's team.
I missed my upset of the week when San Diego pulled out the win in Tennessee by beating the Titans in overtime. Tampa Bay losing to Houston was a mild upset and was a set back for the Bucs who were hoping to clinch their divisional title. A surprise in Philadelphia as the Giants came away with the win, and what was really surprising was no interceptions by either quarterback. For the week I was 12-4 and for the year I'm standing at 122-65.
My picks for week 15 are as follows:
THURSDAY - HOUSTON OVER DENVER
Houston at home has played their best football as shown by last weeks upset of Tampa Bay. The Denver Broncos are a hard team to figure, up one week and down the next, but this week will be a down week as the Texans win 24-20 at home.
SATURDAY - CINCINNATI OVER SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati is my pick for not meeting the preseason expectation hype, but they are playing the 49ers who have lost another quarterback to injury. The 49ers just have not been able to muster an offense this season with any quarterback and it shows by their scoring only 13 points a game, lowest in the NFL. Thats 332 points less than New England. Bengal's to bounce the 49ers 31-13.
SUNDAY'S GAMES
TENNESSEE OVER KANSAS CITY
Kansas City's offensive woes continue without a running back of any caliber, 17 rushes for 16 yards as displayed in last weeks game is not going to win many games in this league. Nor is seven first downs, Tennessee's defense will stifle the Chief's for a 28-10 win.
BALTIMORE OVER MIAMI
For god's sake, it's the winless Miami Dolphins! Baltimore who is on the brink of being delegated to the cellar in the AFC North will beat the worst team in all the NFL. But it will be close, Ravens 24-20.
NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
New England is a 24 point favorite and how can anyone disagree? I can't and won't! The best team in the NFL will humiliate one of the worst 40-14.
CLEVELAND OVER BUFFALO
Buffalo is still in the hunt for a wild card and Cleveland is one of those teams in front of them. The Bills are playing better than most people thought they could. But Cleveland still has a chance to overtake the Steelers for the divisional title. Don't look for the Browns to overlook the Bills at home and will win 27-17.
SEATTLE OVER CAROLINA
Seattle has the 12th best total offense and the 10th best defense in all of the NFL. The Panthers are 1-5 at home this season and have thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes. The Hawks will put pressure on some old guy named Testaverde and the Panthers turnovers will be their downfall. Seattle, will be out to prove they belong with the leagues elite teams , wins 28-17.
NEW ORLEANS OVER ARIZONA
I'm taking the Saints only because they are a home. The Cardinals were too mistake prone last week and the Saints were playing a hapless Falcon team. So combining these two criteria and I will pick the Saints, but only because they are at home, New Orleans 24-20.
TAMPA BAY OVER ATLANTA
Atlanta has basically folded their tent and will play out the season just like they did the last two weeks and in a lackluster fashion to boot. Tampa Bay after a disappointing lost to Houston will rebound and crush the Falcons 24-10.
GREEN BAY OVER ST LOUIS
Green Bay is on a collision course for the NFC title game with the Dallas Cowboys. Don't look for the pathetic Rams to be anymore than a bump in that road. Packers beat the Rams in St Louis with ease 34-14.
PITTSBURGH OVERE JACKSONVILLE
This is tough game to call. Jacksonville has the wild card wrapped up, but Cleveland is breathing down the Steelers necks again and a Pittsburgh lost and a Browns win would bring it down to the head and head tie breaker. Pittsburgh has more to lose than Jacksonville, so the Steelers in a dog fight and at home will win 28-27.
INDIANAPOLIS OVER OAKLAND
Oakland can be a scrappy team at times, but this won't be their time as the Colts and Peyton Manning show the west coast fans how the passing game is really played, Colts will prevail 34-17.
SAN DIEGO OVER DETROIT
The odds makers make the Chargers an eleven point favorite, but in my humble opinion that is too many by about five. Look for Tomlinson to run the ball all day and the Chargers at the end of the day will be on top 27-21.
DALLAS OVER PHILADELPHIA
Who going to quarterback the Eagles? Doesn't matter as Romo and TO will fly by the Eagles at home big, 34-17.
SNF - NEW YORK GIANTS OVER WASHINGTON
New York has a lock on the wild card and will only start fine tuning their game against the Skins. Washington showed some hope as they beat the Bears a week ago on the Thursday Night game, but the Giants and Eli, if they can hold down the turnovers, will win this game at home 24-10.
MNF - MINNESOTA OVER CHICAGO
Chicago saw their season end a couple weeks ago up in Seattle and the Viking will just put another nail in their disappointing season. The Bears just didn't live up to their Super Bowl year hype. The Vikings on the other hand will try to maintain their lead for the wild card. Vikings over the Bears 27-17.
Another short week as we have a game tonight between Chicago and the Redskins, so I will put my Pans for week 13 and Picks for week 14 together again.
This past Sunday we saw two teams in the NFC West eliminated from a divisional title and for all practical purposes any hope for the playoffs.
The Seahawks put the Eagles away with some excellence defense in the clutch as Lofa Tatupu (my player of the game) intercepted Freeley, the Eagles quarterback three times, with the last one coming as time was running out and the Eagles on the verge of scoring the winning touchdown. The Eagles played even up with the Hawks the whole game as both teams traded scores for the first three quarters, but Seattle defense shut down the Eagles when the game was on the line. The Rams overpowered the Atlanta Falcons on their home field by jumping out to a 21-point lead in the first half and held on for the win. Jackson who gained almost 100 yards and Frerotti 23-35 and 311 yards led the Rams to victory. Arizona ruled the day in Glendale against the high-flying Browns by shutting down Cleveland's offense and creating four turnovers to hold off the Browns. Edgerrin James gained 114 yards on the ground while Warner, short of 400 yards the week before, was effective. Three of the Browns turnovers were converted into touchdowns for the Cardinals. The mistake prone San Francisco 49ers were crushed by the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte as the Panthers won for the first time at home in almost a year. The 49ers turned the ball over six times in defeat.
Last week's games were up and down for me but I managed to squeak out 10 winners, but missed on some games I didn't see coming. Buffalo win over the Redskins on a last second field goal wasn't really unexpected as the Skins were smarting over the lost of Taylor. My upset of the week didn't bear out as the Colts continue to roll. Whoa, the Jets really rolled over the hapless Dolphins, not sure if the Miami will see the win column this year. What has gotten into the Raiders of late, the Broncos were never in the game as Oakland scored a season high against Denver? For the year I'm now 110-61. Let's see if I can do better starting with tonights game.
My picks for week 14 are as follows:
WASHINGTON OVER CHICAGO
Both teams are 5-7 and are heading no where. Because the Redskins are at home and should be over the death of Taylor, at least somewhat, and hopefully are a little PO over the lost to Buffalo last week and facing a so-so Bears offense, I will go with the Skins 24-17.
ST LOUIS OVER CINCINNATI
Cincinnati continues to struggle scoring points and the Rams have seemed to have found their rhythm by winning three out of the last four. The Rams win on the road 28-21.
DALLAS OVER DETROIT
The Cowboys continue their quest for the NFC title and the Lions is a team on the decline as they seem to be every year at this time. Romo and TO pound the Lions 34-13.
GREEN BAY OVER OAKLAND
Although the Raiders seem to have found some wins of late, they will run up against a good Packers team in Green Bay, Bret Favre will feast on the Raiders defense this week 35-14.
BUFFALO OVER MIAMI
Miami showed absolutely no heart in last weeks lost to the Jets. They pulled the rug out and just went through the motions, look for more of the same this weekend. Buffalo 24-10.
TAMPA BAY OVER HOUSTON
Tampa Bay's defense verus Houston offense. The Texans play well at home but the Bucs are at the top of their game right now and it didn't seem to matter if the Bucs top quarterback went down last week, they cannot be stopped by the Texans. Bucs 20-17.
TENNESSEE OVER SAN DIEGO
This is my upset of the week. San Diego has almost wrapped up their divisional title and will be looking past the Titans. Look for the Titans to win a close game at home, 21-20.
JACKSONVILLE OVER CAROLINA
Jacksonville has almost wrapped up a wild card and with a win at home against the Panthers they will. Look for them to win convincingly 34-17.
PHILAEDELPHIA OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
If Feeley can hold down his turnovers, the Eagles should beat the up and down Giants. In fact this game could be the battle of turnovers as Manning is about even par with Feeley. I haven't heard the status of McNabb yet but I'm not sure it will make a difference. This game will depend on consistent play and the Eagles show more at this time, at home the Eagles win 24-17.
SEATTLE OVER ARIZONA
On the way to the playoffs, the Seahawks, who are on a roll both on the road and at home of late should clinch the divisional title in this game. Don't look for the Cardinals to derail the Hawks as Seattle's pass defense will stop Warner. Why? Because at press time, all three of Arizona's aging WR are doubtful for the game. Look for the Hawks to put the pressure on the aging quarterback and the Cardinals defense all day. Seattle to elimninate the Cardinals from the playoffs 34-17.
MINNESOTA OVER SAN FRANCISCO
The Vikings still have hope of making the playoffs and San Francisco is wondering what hit them. Well this week, it will be the high scoring Vikings taking apart what is left of the lowly 49ers 34-10. I'm beginning to wonder if maybe Dilfer is color blind.
NEW ENGLAND OVER PITTSBURGH
This is a tough call as the Patriots have been in limbo of late. Last Monday's escape against the Raven was by pure luck. Well maybe not pure luck, but I bet a few New England fans were rubbing their rabbit foot when the game came down to the last play of the game ending on the Pats two yard line. But the Pats are at home and with the wind still at their back to complete a unbeaten season, will beat the Steelers 34-21.
CLEVELAND OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
The Jets crushed the Dolphins last week in a surprise offensive show. But don't look for the Jets to out score the Browns who have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Cleveland goes into New York and comes away with a 35-17 win.
DENVER OVER KANSAS CITY
I can't figure out this Denver team no matteer how I analyze them. When they have a chance to make the playoffs and they lose to teams who are going no where, well what now? But hey are playing a team this week who is hurting so badly, I wonder if they can win another game this season. Denver at home 17-10 in the cold weather.
INDIANAPOLIS OVER BALTIMORE
The Colts are starting to get part of their walking wounded back and Manning is still throwing touchdown bombs with ease. Baltimore lost a heart breaker to New England this past Monday and may lose another Sunday night to Indianaplois, 28-24.
MNF - NEW ORLEANS OVER ATLANTA
New Orleans has fallen on hard times of late, but Atlanta has been on hard times the whole season. This game is not on my must watch list. Saints in a squeaker 21-17. Where is that TV Guide?
News Flash, the NFC West wins again! Seattle and San Francisco won in games against the other two foes in the west. What? The 49ers break their eight game losing streak? Yep, they sure did, beating the Cardinals for the second time this season, but it took a overtime and a fumble in the in zone by Warner to get a much needed win and get some of the pressure of the 49ers fans off their teams backs. This sure puts a damper on Arizona's chances of winning the West or even getting a wild card bid. Seattle came from behind for the second week in a row beating the Bears and now the Rams in very interesting games to say the least. Now Seattle stands 7-4 and with a couple breaks the Hawks could have been 9-2 and be challenging for the best record in the NFC. Look for things to change in the West this weekend as all the teams play out side of the division. Although the Rams, Seahawks, 49ers and the Cardinals have a shot at winning, don't count on it.
This past week was a so-so week as I picked only 9 of the 16 game correctly. I started off quickly, picking the first five games and then it fell apart quite rapidly as I missed the next five. Two overtime loses really did me in. Arizona losing at home and missing my upset of the week when Denver lost to the Bears. Never expected the Saints to be beaten by a lack luster team like Carolina or Cincinnati beating the Titans. The Texans lost was not totally unexpected but disappointing. Kansas City continues to miss Johnson and the Raiders took advantage of the situation. Minnesota really dismantled the Giants, the outcome of this game wasn't predicted by hardly anyone. For the year I'm now 100-55.
Now my picks for week 13 which starts tonight;
THURSDAY - DALLAS OVER GREEN BAY
I've pondered this game all week and finally decided to go with the Cowboys. Why? They are at home and the odds makers make them a 7 point favorite. The Cowboys have a quarterback that is just as hot as Favre and the Cowboys have TO. I think the point spread is a little to high and I will go with Dallas 24-20.
CAROLINA OVER SAN FRANCISCO
This is another game that leaves me to think twice. But because the Panthers are at home and because the 49ers are the 49ers, I will go with Carolina 17-14. This is really a battle of two teams that are not going anywhere. You may have to use toothpicks to prop open your eye lids if you are unlucky enough to have this game in your TV viewing area.
WASHINGTON OVER BUFFALO
Buffalo offense can't seem to score enough to get over the hump and their defense at times is atrocious, on the other hand, at times the Redskins look almost like a football team. Redskins at home 27-13.
TENNESSEE OVER HOUSTON
Another tough pick. The Texans continue to struggle on the road and don't look for a different outcome in this game. Houston running game is going no where and the pass defense is what Young will exploit and turn it into a 28-21 win.
ST LOUIS OVER ATLANTA
Damn, each game is getting harder and harder to predict as I go down the list. Both of these teams are going no where and it is only because the Rams seemed to show some spark in the last three game including the first half against the Seahawks, I will give them the edge, But barely, 24-17.
SEATTLE OVER PHILADELPHIA
Why would I pick the Eagles over my Seahawks? I can't.....I just can'#### just not in me. But let me say this, if McNabb starts Sunday the Seahawks will win. no doubt in my mind, but if he doesn't, the game in my opinion is going to be too close to call. No matter who starts for the Eagles the Hawks defense will have to step up and stop Westbrook both on the run and the 'out' pass. If Feeley starts, the Hawks will have to stop the roll out passing game or it will be a long day. McNabb will have to be a pocket passer because of his injuries and will be pressured all day, but Feeely, well......Seattle 27-20.
MINNESOTA OVER DETROIT
The Vikings are a up and down team this season. The Lions are a down team at this time. So because the Vikings are at home and seemed to have their offense going in the right direction, I will go with the Viks 27-20.
JACKSONVILLE OVER INDIANAPOLIS
I'm going against the wisdom here as the Colts are a 7 point favorite, but with the injuries the Colts have and the chance for the Jags to finally get into first place after all these years, I will call this my upset of the week, Jacksonville 31-24.
SAN DIEGO OVER KANSAS CITY
Kansas City has lost Holmes to retirement and Johnson is still on the mend. San Diego finally has put some space between themselves and the rest of the AFC West teams and don't look for them to stop now in their quest for the title. Chargers 27-14.
MIAMI OVER THE NEW YORK JETS
What better chance do the Dolphins have to win a game this season? The New York Jets that's who! Playing in front of the home folks they will finally get that first win. Besides that, I have nothing good to say about either team. Miami 19-17.
DENVER OVER OAKLAND
Denver still thinks they have a shot at the divisional title and I don't think the Raiders win last week will make a difference one way or the other. The Broncos offense is more than the Raiders defense can handle. Denver 24-13.
CLEVELAND OVER ARIZONA
The Browns offense is just too much for the Cardinals to control, as most teams who play the Browns find out the hard way. The Cardinals, on the other hand, has a decent offense also, as shown by Warner's nearly 500 yards passing against the 49ers last weekend. But in a shoot out the Browns will prevail 35-31.
TAMPA BAY OVER NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay smells the divisional title and it doesn't smell like Bayou swamp gas. TB defense will stop Brees and Bush and take the game 24-17.
CHICAGO OVER THE NEW YORK GIANTS
That's right, the Bears will beat the Giants. The Giants feast on teams that are subpar but this week the subpar Bears will upset the Giants in Chicago 21-17.
PITTSBURGH OVER CINCINNATI
Not much of a contest here and the Steelers are a seven point favorite to win. The Bengals unloaded on the Titans last weekend but don't look for the Steelers defense to give up points like that this week. The Steelers have been struggling lately, but at home and if the field is dry, look for them to rebound from a sloppy win against Miami. Pittsburgh 28-17.
MNF - NEW ENGLAND OVER BALTIMORE
No contest, the Patriots will rebound from a poor performance last week against the Eagles. That was their flat game of the season. New England is a 20 point favorite and I can't see anything that would change my mind at this time. Pats 34-14.
Seattle created some breathing room between them and Arizona, while the Rams and the 49ers were basically eliminated from the divisional title hunt as the Hawks hold the tie breaker over both teams. Neither the Rams nor the 49ers have a real shot of even getting a wild card bid, their seasons are basically over and they will finish the season playing for pride and possibly finding out if some of their bench players can do the job on the field and make the team next season and replace some of the present team members who are not doing the job as of now. Both NFC West division wins came at the expense of the other two West teams. Lets look at what happened in St Louis and Glendale, Arizona on Sunday.
First, the Cardinals/49ers game. San Francisco got only it's third win of the season and second against the Cardinals. Dilfer, who had been given the quarterback job before the Seattle game replacing an inept Smith, had a good game, at least for him. His 25-39 without a pick and 256 yards was enough to keep the 49ers in the game. In fact the 49ers didn't turn the ball over at all. On the other hand the Cardinals turned the ball over four times and the last turnover cost them the game as Warner, while being sacked in the end zone fumbled the ball which the 49ers promptly turned into the winning points in the overtime. Arizona tied the score in regulation with a field goal with no time on the clock and missed a chip shot field goal in the overtime that would have won it for the Cards. Frank Gore finally got a hundred yards in a game, long time coming. On the other hand, Warner threw for 484 yards which is up there with the 'Peyton Mannings' of pro football.
The Seahawks eliminated the Rams from any play off hopes with a come from behind victory in St Louis. But the Rams, winners of two straight, didn't go down easily as they jumped off to a fast start, scoring on a safety when Morris was tackled on Seattle's goal line half way into the first quarter. Then a long touchdown run by Steven Jackson and the Hawks found themselves in another first quarter hole. This game had the same bleak outlook as the game the week before against the Bears when Seattle fell 14 points down in the first quarter. Seattle special teams continue to struggle covering kick returns, but a 89-yard kick off return of their own by rookie Josh Wilson seemed to give Hawks fans some hope the game could be turned around just as the Bears game the week prior. Later in the second quarter Seattle turned the momentum in their favor and never gave it back when they started a hurry up, no huddle offense and the Rams never adjusted as Seattle scored 17 unanswered points to take control of the game. Seattle defense knocked out their third quarterback of the season in the first quarter when Bulger left with a concussiion and never appeared on the field again. His replacement did a good job considering he was being hounded all day by a pressing pass rush by Seattle. Frerotti had to resort to short passes to his two aging wide receivers and only averaged about 8 yards a completion. Jackson, the Rams touted running back, after scoring on a 53 yard run in the first quarter, only averaged 1.8 yards on 22 carries the rest of the game. On the other hand, Morris had 16 carries gaining 79 yards for five yards a carry. Hasselbeck again had a good game going 21-38 and 249 yards with his usual and accustom one pick. Seattle seemed to have the game well in hand and should have added a field goal late to ice it, but Brown's kick went wide. This set up a very unnecessary close finish and Seattle got out of town after a very frantic ending when the Rams drove down the field to get a first and goal with about a minute to go. The first play was a poorly thrown pass short of Frerotti intended target, but the second play was stuffed when a pass play only went for two yards. The third paly was stopped on the one yard line and after a timeout with a fourth and one, Rams fans went from crazy wild to stunned silence, in only two seconds time. Frerotti fumbled the snap and the game was racked up in the win column for Seattle. I am sure the roar of Seattle fans could be heard all the way to Portland. Maurice Morris, Deion Branch, Matt Hasselbeck and Patrick Kerney all had outstanding games for the Hawks and deserved the game balls.
