PICKS AND PANS FOR WEEK SIX

Week six and already some teams have eliminated themselves. A couple of the worst teams eliminated themselves after the first kickoff of  their first game of the season, and I will name, names.

Let's start with St Louis. The Rams are the worst of the worst and prove it week after week. The coaching change in St Louis will have no effect on the rest of the Ram's season. Close behind are the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals. A whopping 0-17 for those four sorry teams. Houston has lost control of themselves and any chance they had with their latest lost at home to the Colts. Not so much the lost but the way they lost. The Bengals and Lions haven't had any control of themselves and will continue to lose, home and away.

Kansas City had their season high against the Bronco and don't look for anything consistent out of them the rest of the season. Oakland and Cleveland have played themselves out of any possible chance to win a playoff spot and this is only after five weeks. Seattle looks like a Pop Warner football team at times and Minnesota is close behind. If the Vikings can't seem to figure it out why they can't win a playoff spot with only a running game, what can I say

Philadelphia is in too tough of a division to advance and Green Bay seems to be going in the wrong direction since they had a quarterback change as are Jacksonville and the Chargers. Although I won't count the Jaguars, Chargers and the Packers out as yet, they better play one heck of a lot more consistently they have shown so far this season.

Seattle is another team who, right now, are terrible, however still  have a chance to win their division because of the weak teams that they will play against within their division. They are only one and a half game out of first place with two games to play against the Cardinals. Seattle seems to have a problem putting together a game plan and if they have one the coaching staff doesn't seem to tell the players what it is. I think, and I have said this before, when Seattle announced a coaching change for next season, that the Hawks made a big mistake making Mora their future head coach and then letting Jim Zorn slip away.

Let's look at this and these teams in a different light. Of the eleven teams I have picked out as having little chance to win a playoff spot, those eleven teams have a combined win total of ten wins, (10-39). If you take out the Eagles, Vikings and Packers out of that mix, the remaining eight teams have a grand total of four wins (4-30). Need I say more.

Last week I ran my overall record to 45-29 and using the point spread I use for every game, I am 54-20 (.730) for the season.

Let's get down and dirty with my picks for this week.

ATLANTA +3 (43) OVER CHICAGO

This game is against the grain and its my upset of the week. I pick the Falcons to win at home. Why? I think Atlanta's quarterback is an up and coming star and the Bears quarterback is just an ordinary run of the mill quarterback. Besides, the Falcons are at home. Atlanta 24-20.

MIAMI +3 (45) OVER HOUSTON

The Texans have to be still in shell shock over the melt down last week, Miami is playing too well and will beat the Texans using their defense, 27-17.

INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 (37) OVER BALTIMORE

The come from behind win last week will energize the Colts and Baltimore's offense hasn't been showing up much lately. Defensively the two teams are a good match up but the Colts are at home, Indianapolis 20-17.

MINNESOTA -13 (45) OVER DETROIT

The Vikings will finally play someone they can run over and the run is all they got, but it will be enough to beat the lowly Lions 31-14.

NEW ORLEANS -8 (47) OVER OAKLAND

Brees is on top of his game as is Bush, and the pass happy Saints will fly by the Raiders. The Saints will just have to play smarter than last week. New Orleans 28-20.

NEW YORK JETS -6 (45) OVER CINCINNATI

A potential shoot out, however the Jets with Favre will do all the shooting , Jets at home 24-10.

TAMPA BAY -1.5 (37) OVER CAROLINA

This game could go into overtime. It is a classic toss up. Being the Bucs are at home I will give them the nod, 20-17 OT.

WASHINGTON -13 (44) OVER ST LOUIS

Not much doubt in this one, Jim Zorn's Skins will crush the helpless Rams 34-10.

DENVER -3.5 (49) OVER JACKSONVILLE

This is a tough game to pick, but I will take the Broncos to win in a high scoring, no holds bared, Katie bar the door, old fashion shoot out. If you like old style AFL type football this is the game to watch, Denver at home 28-21.

DALLAS -5.5 (50) OVER ARIZONA

This will be tougher than the Cowboys think, but Dallas will air it out and the Cardinals will not have enough answers to stop TO and the Dallas attack. Dallas in a high scoring game, but most of it will be on the Cowboys side, 30-20.

PHILADELPHIA -5 (43) OVER SAN FRANCISCO

Defensively I don't think the 49ers can keep up with the Eagles. The 49ers have allowed a pot full of sacks this season and the Eagles are geared defensively to rush the quarterback and this week will be all Eagles, 28-14.

SEATTLE -2.5 (46) OVER GREEN BAY

Both teams are in a flunk. I almost picked the Packers because of the Pop Warner type football the Hawks displayed last week in the Big Apple. But the Packers can't even win at home, so the Hawks will win this one and get back into the hunt, 24-21. But it won't be easy.

SNF

SAN DIEGO -6 (45) OVER NEW ENGLAND

My head tells me the Chargers are done for the year, however remember the Chargers were in this same position last year. The Patriots continues to struggle, but somehow manages to win. The string will run out this week on SNF. Chargers will win at home 24-21.

MNF

NEW YORK GIANTS -8 (43) OVER CLEVELAND

Get real, the Browns......Giants win with room to spare, 28-14.

Of course your comments are always welcome.

PICKS AND PANS FOR WEEK FIVE

Well here we go into week five of the 2008-09 NFL football season. Last week we had, as we have every week, upsets and some games that weren't so surprising. Kansas City beating Denver and Washington beating Dallas were, in my opinion, major upsets. Chicago beating the Eagles was a mild upset but not totally surprising. I called both the Bengals/Browns and the Packers/Bucs game to be close and they were, however not the way I predicted. I picked the Steelers to win a close game and they did. I said the Jets/Cardinals game would be very high scoring, and it was, so on and so on.

Injuries continue to be a bugaboo for most teams and some will be critical in the up-coming weeks. Even some suspensions will have a impact on some top teams. In Dallas, right on cue with a Cowboys loss, TO has his mid-season blow-up, and only time will tell if it will have any effect on the Cowboys. But hey, that's football and all teams have to deal with it one way or the other.

There were coaching changes in both St Louis and Oakland. Don't look for for anything different in those two cities. Both teams started their game on Sunday strong but as we have come accustom to they faded and were firmly beaten.While I'm at it, look for a few more coaching changes to come in other cities, Cincinnati comes to mind right off.

Last week wasn't one of my finest, but 8-5 under the circumstances wasn't that bad. For the season I am still over .650 and 39-21 overall. I promise I will try to do better this week.

Lets get started with week five's predictions.

BALTIMORE +3 (34) OVER TENNESSEE

I'm picking the Ravens in a mild upset this week. Baltimore will have to pick up their offense, but their defense will win this game at home. Terry Collins age will catch up to him and the Titans. Ravens 17-16.

CAROLINA -9.5 (38.5) OVER KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs had their game last week and the Panthers will continue to roll. Carolina with ease 28-10.

CHICAGO -3.5 (44.5) OVER DETROIT

The Lions have no running game and the Bears will focus on Kitna and will win going away, but not in a romp as the Lions will put up a good fight for about three quarters. Bears 27-17.

GREEN BAY -no line- OVER ATLANTA

Look for the Packers to rebound against the Falcons. After the last two  weeks the Packers will be out to prove they are contenders. If they can't win this one, well, you figure it out. Green Bay in a cake walk, 28-10.

HOUSTON +3 (47) OVER INDIANAPOLIS

Houston always seems to play well at home and the ####ed up Colts will limp out of Houston with more problems then when they arrived, in a high scoring game, Texans 27-20.

SAN DIEGO -6.5 (45) OVER MIAMI

Too much LT and Rivers. The Dolphins had their season's high with a win at NE and now its time for reality to check in. Chargers win but close, 24-21.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 (43.5) OVER SEATTLE

The Giants will be in for a fall soon, but not this week. Seattle will have to prove they have a consistence passing game and defend against the pass, but not this week as the Giants win 24-20.

PHILADELPHIA -6 (42.5) OVER WASHINGTON

The Skins have shown they belong, at least for a while. The Eagle's defense will run over the Skins, 27-14. However my hat is off to Jim Zorn for doing a fine coachiing job so far and is heads and shoulders over other coaches for 'Coach of the Year' award after four games that is.

DENVER -3.5 (48) OVER TAMPA BAY

Don't look for Griese to carry the Bucs in mile high territory. The Broncos will bounce back from an embarrassing loss last week to bury the Bucs, 27-21.

BUFFALO +1 (44.5) OVER ARIZONA

This game willl be a toss up and a possible shoot out. But Warner and the Cardinals are prone to turnoveers and this will be the key to the game. Bills win a close game, 24-21.

DALLAS -17 (44) OVER CINCINNATI

You got to be kidding, after the Cowboys get beat by the Redskins, they get a team like the Bengals to kick around on Sunday? I hope this game is blacked out in Cincinnati, Cowboys 34-10 in spite of TO's mouth.

NEW ENGLAND -3 (41.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO

The Patriots are hurting at the quarterback position, but they will have enough to take the 49ers to the bank. The 49ers prize quarterback has shown his weaknesses and the Pats will pound them for a 24-15 win.

SNF

JACKSONVILLE -4 (36) OVER PITTSBURGH

This will be the show down for two hope-to-be also rans. It may also be a preview of the AFC wild card game. I will take Jacksonville in a low scoring close game, 19-17.

MNF

NEW ORLENAS -3 (46.5) OVER MINNESOTA

The Vikings continue to struggle with passing the ball, and teams have taken advantage of that and controlled Peterson and the Vikings ground game, Look for Brees to roll up and pass over the Vikings 30-17.

Well that my picks for this week and I got a feeling that some of these games will be decided by tournovers and the kicking game.

Your comments are always welcome.....

PICKS AND PANS FOR WEEK FOUR

Entering week four, the first week of open dates, (well, except for the game that was washed away by a storm in Texas) most of the teams are hurting due to injuries. Some teams like Seattle will really benefit from the week off and should enter into the Giants game healthy. I said healthy not necessarily ready. Others like the Patriots, who seem on the decline in spite of injuries, the week off won't make that much difference. Injuries have played a major part so far in the number of win and loses. The top teams a year ago are moving more toward the middle and the lower teams last year are moving up. It makes for a very interesteing season to see who moves up or down in the standings.

Last week I hit 12 of 16 of my predictions correctly. For the season after three weeks I'm 31-16 and .660. The Bears OT loss and the Patriots loss was my biggest missed games, also it didn't help when I picked Green Bay to upset the Cowboys, should have know better.

Well lets get started with the first bye weeks predictions, week four, a work in progress.

CINCINNATI -3.5 (44.5) OVER CLEVELAND

I think the Browns know its all over for the year. The Bengals showed a little spark last week against the Giants. I don't know if that means the Bengals are that improved or the weaknesses of the Giants are starting to show. Anyway, in a toss up the Bengals 23-21.

JACKSONVILLE -7.5 (42.5) OVER HOUSTON

Another road game for the Texans and another road loss for the Texans. Jacksonville wins a big one on the road last week and will win a big one at home this week, Jaguars 23-21.

CAROLINA -7 (39.5) OVER ATLANTA

Atlanta isn't facing either KC or Detroit (their two wins) this week and Carolina will remind them of that fact. The Falcons will have a rude awakening on Carolina's home field, 24.14.

NEW YORK JETS -1.5 (45) OVER ARIZONA

Another toss up and the home team will win and that is about the only reason I can think of. Two of the oldest quarterbacks in the NFL will face off in this one, the better of those two will come out on top where defense will go out the window, Jets 24.21.

TENNESSEE -3 (36) OVER MINNESOTA

Speaking of old quarterbacks.....Terry Collins and Gus Frerotte! It seems like old quarterback get together week. The Vikings lack any kind of passing game and the Titans will zero in on their running. so I will pick the oldie at home and this is the Titans of course, 21-14.

GREEN BAY +1 (42.5) OVER TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay isn't Dallas, not even close and neither is GB, Chicago. Look for the Pack to regain their playoff form in this one. Griese (another oldie) arm will be worn out for the rest of the season if he throws another 67 passes. The Packers win away 21-20.

NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (48.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO

This will be a shoot out with the last team standing the winner. Because the Saints are at home and have the better quarterback, I will give them the nod, 27-21.

DENVER -10 (46.5) OVER KANSAS CITY

Denver won't have to play defense against the hapless Chiefs, the Chiefs don't have an offense and probably couldn't score against a good high school team. Denver in a romp 36-10.

BUFFALO -8 (41.5) OVER ST LOUIS

The Rams are about as low as a team can get. There must be something in the water in Missouri because both of their teams haven't won a game and don't look for that to change this weekend. Buffalo without breaking a sweat, 28-13. 

SAN DIEGO -7.5 (45.5) OVER OAKLAND

Oakland played the Bills tough enough to win but alas, the cream always comes to the top and the curds always sink to the bottom. The Chargers will stir the pot a little more this week and win big, 28-17.

DALLAS -11 (46) OVER WASHINGTON

I picked the Redskins to finish last in the NFC East and they will show us why this weekend. Dallas has too much and Washington has too little, the Cowboys will win and with ease, 27-19.

SNF

PHILADELPHIA -3 (40.5) OVER CHICAGO

The Eagles defense ran over the Steelers offense last week and look for more of the same this week against a suspect Bears team. Philly 24-14.

MNF

PITTSBURGH -5.5 (34.5) OVER BALTIMORE 

With the injuries problems that the Steelers have, look for a close game, but because Pittsburgh is at home and on MNF I will go with them, 17-16.

Your comments are always welcome.....

PICKS AND PANS FOR THE 3rd WEEK OF THE 2008-90 SEASON

John Madden once said, 'There are playoff teams and teams who make the playoffs'. As this season unfolds I see a lot of teams who could make the playoffs but none that stand out as a playoff team. The so called playoff teams are looking to survive and not doing a very good job of it so far. Granted injuries have put a damper on some teams chances at this point of the season. In fact injuries have had a major impact on some well respected teams. Jacksonville and Seattle come to mind right off and of course the injury to Tom Brady. But injuries are a part of the game, and it seems this year they are wide spread and are having a definite impact on some teams chances to make the playoffs. Don't look for any team to go through the season with less then three or four loses. In fact some teams that are doing well now are just one key injury away from a mediocre season.

Last week I was a mediocre 9-6, losing games in the last seconds and winning a game in the last seconds. For the season I'm 19-12, .613.

Well here goes week three of the 2008-09 NFL football season.

 PHILADELPHIA-3.5 (45) OVER PITTSBURGH

This game will be another toss up, and maybe a shoot out. I will take the Eagles because they are at home 27-21.

JACKSONVILLE +5.5 (41.5) OVER INDIANAPOLIS

Both teams are struggling, but Jacksonville needs this win if they want to be in the hunt. Jaguars in a close one, 21-20.

NEW ENGLAND -12.5 (36.5) OVER MIAMI

Even with the Patriots being short handed at quarterback they will have enough to power over the Dolphins at home, 27-10.

MINNESOTA -3 (37.5) OVER CAROLINA

The Vikings maybe limited to just a running game and even if Peterson is out, it will be enough to beat the Panthers, 24-14.

DENVER -5.5 (51) OVER NEW ORLEANS

D-fence won't play a major part in this game, it may depend on who has the ball last. The Broncos in a shoot-out 27-24.

NEW YORK GIANTS -13 (41.5) OVER CINCINNATI

The Giants seem to keep coming up against teams that aren't very good, their coming down will happen, but not today as the Giants win big 28-13.

SEATTLE -9.5 (44) OVER ST LOUIS

This game is what Seattle needs, a team that can't score and can't stop anyone from scoring in the air or on the ground. Only Detroit has allowed more points than the Rams, Seattle 28-17.

BUFFALO -9 (36.5) OAKLAND

Oakland got their win for the first half of the season, Buffalo in a romp, 27-10.

WASHINGTON -3 (42.5) OVER ARIZONA

Jim Zorn and the Skins seems to have found a decent defense and they will need it this day. Washington in a close one, 21-20.

TENNESSEE -5 (39) OVER HOUSTON

Houston on the road again and another lost. Titans without Young and maybe for a long time will still win 21-17.

CHICAGO -3.5 (35.5) OVER TAMPA BAY

If and when the Bucs settle on a decent quarterback they may win a few games, but until that day and this isn't one of them, the Bears will win 19-17.

CLEVELAND +2 (38.5) OVER BALTIMORE

This is a must win for the Browns. If they don't its most likely over for this year. Browns win 21-19.

SAN FRANCISCO -4 (46.5) OVER DETROIT

The Lions will make it a game until Kitna has to throw the ball. 49ers will pull away at the end with a 27-20 win.

ATLANTA -4 (36.5) OVER KANSAS CITY

Atlanta will rebound against a so-so Chiefs team, but it will be close, Falcons win 19-17.

SNF

SAN DIEGO -8.5 (44.5) OVER NEW YORK JETS

Reality will set in for the Jets in this one and Favre will not be able to come to the rescue. The Chargers will win at home28-14.

MNF

GREEN BAY +3 (51) OVER DALLAS

Dallas has been less than impressive and GB is at home, tough for anyone and tough for the Cowboys, Packers will win in a high scoring game, 28-24.

Don't look for anyone to stand out this week. Your comments are always welcome.

PICKS AND PANS SECOND WEEK

I almost didn't write this blog after last weeks game between the Seahawks and the Bills. That was one sick puppy for sure.

I'm going to dispense with my Pans this week and go straight to my picks.

Last week I was 10-6 and could have done better except for what I consider three big upsets. but lets get started with week two predictions.

TENNESSEE +1.5 (37.5) OVER CINCINNATI

Why do I ever pick the Bengals? Tennessee big gun doesn't want to play football anymore? Wow, Vince Young is day to day and seems to be losing heart. But probably has enough to beat the Bengals. In a tight game I pick the Titans to win 21-17.

JACKSONVILLE -5.5 (37) OVER BUFFALO

Another close game if the play last week by either of these teams is any indication what will happen this week. Jacksonville is too good a team to be down and Buffalo after a great game will be higher than a kite. But I will side with the odds makers and take the Jags 21-17.

NEW ORLEANS -1 (42) OVER WASHINGTON

Washington is trying to learn a new system under 1st year head coach Jim Zorn, and it will take more than this week to polish it into a win. The Saints come marching into town and leave with a 24-17 win.

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 (41.5) OVER ST LOUIS

I'm not on the Giants band wagon as some are, but you can still have one leg up on the wagon to win against this poorly performing Rams team. New York beats a sleeping giant but not as great as the odds makers say, lets say 24-17.

GREEN BAY -3 (45.5) OVER DETROIT

The Packers were not very impressive last week, but I think not being impressive is not a problem against the Lions. Packs win 24-10.

CAROLINA -3 (37.5) OVER CHICAGO

I will pick the Panthers only because they are at home and my gut feeling says it is right. Carolina over the Bears, but close 17-16.

MINNESOTA +1.5 (43.5) OVER INDIANAPOLIS

The Vikings have trouble passing the ball, so what's new about that, they have had trouble passing since the departure of Joe Kapp. The Colts had trouble doing anything last week and were not impressive at all at home against a weak Bears team. So I will call this a toss up, but since I have to pick someone I will take the Vikings because they are at home, 24-21.

KANSAS CITY -3.5 (36) OVER OAKLAND

Oakland has to find some defense if they want to win and KC has to find some offense if they want to win. What do you call this game, a draw, I will take the Chiefs only because they are at home, but won't put this game on my must watch list, Chiefs 20-17.

TAMPA BAY -7 (38) OVER ATLANTA

Atlanta was impressive last week and could scare the Bucs with their new found offense and stay in this game to the end. But in the end the Bucs will win, but a lot closer than the seven point spread. Bucs win 20-17. If the Bucs loses, they will have a hard time catching the Saints or anyone else for that matter.

SEATTLE -7 (38.5) OVER SAN FRANCISCO

I think Seattle played one of the worst games I have ever witnessed by a Seahawks team. Buffalo turned them every direction but loose. Now add all the injuries and they have one major problem. Receivers who can't catch, running backs who can't run, special teams who aren't special and a coaching staff who forgot to tell the player what the game plan was. All this may spell disaster for the Seahawks and their fans. But the 49ers have lost their quarterback, who in my opinion wasn't much to start with. Put all the injuries aside and Seattle is still better than San Francisco, Seahawks 24-13.

ARIZONA -6.5 (39) OVER MIAMI

Miami looked okay last week but still lost to Brett Favre. Arizona looked okay and won over a team who just lost their play maker. Both teams will struggle offensively but the Cardinals are at home and will prevail 24-14.

DENVER +1 (45.5) OVER SAN DIEGO

In one of the three upsets last week the Chargers lost at home while the Bronco's creamed the Raiders on the road. If San Diego is to step up and take charge in the AFC West they will have to show more than last week. Denver will put a road block in the Chargers path and win at home 24-20.

NEW YORK JETS -1.5 (37) OVER NEW ENGLAND

The high powered Patriots offense took a big hit last week and only time will tell if they can recover. The Jets on the other hand have added real punch to their offense and should win at home, barring injuries . Jets 20-17.

PITTSBURGH -6 (44.5) OVER CLEVELAND

The Steelers let the AFC know they will be a contender this year with their easy win last week. Cleveland let the AFC know that they don't have the offense to contend. Pittsburgh wins in Cleveland 27-17.

MNF - Bonus game  due to the weather -

HOUSTON -4.5 (37) OVER BALTIMORE

Houston can't seem to win on the road, but they have one of the best home records. The Ravens got a rare win last week, but look for the Texans to stop the Ravens win streak at one. Texans win 27-10.

MNF

DALLAS -7 (47.5) OVER PHILADELPHIA

Dallas started off fast last week and scored it seemed at will, then they stalled and didn't show much the rest of the game. Meanwhile the Eagles scored at will against the Rams. But in a show down against division foes the Cowboys will win a home in a high scoring contest, 27-20.

After all the key injuries this past week, look for teams to change offensive and defensive sets to try to regain what they have lost to injuried players. I don't see at this time any team gaining the upper hand due to other teams injuries problems as injuries will even out as the season goes on. Tom Brady maybe the exception.

PICKS AND PANS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE 2008-09 NFL FOOTBALL SEASON

Well here we go football fans with a new brand new season, high hopes by fans of every team in the NFL.

Unfortunately most fans know right from the get go their teams are not going any where and even most of those teams that  have a chance their fans are going to be disappointed in the end. Only 12 teams will even make it into the playoffs and about eight of those will have very little success in going all the way. Now with that said, whoa, wait a minute! The New York Giants won the Super Bowl last year as a wild card, so maybe there is hope for some of the also-ran to go all the way. Yeah right, but not this year, the Giants win in the Super Bowl was an once in 20 year fluke. Don't look for the Giants to repeat or maybe not even make the playoffs at all. I look for Dallas and Philiadelphia  to finish ahead of the Giants in the NFC East with the Redskins tagging up the rear.

In the NFC North, look for the one dimensional Vikings to find a passing game and upset the Packers for the title in that division, with the Lions and the Bears fighting it out to stay out of the cellar.

The NFC South is a total mess with New Orleans coming out on top of Tampa Bay, Carolina and the Falcons. The latter two will be looking just for a way to win. If no team in this division finishes above .500, you and I shouldn't be to surprised.

The NFC West is not much better then the South but Seattle could run away with this division with Arizona trailing in second, followed by the 49ers and the Rams, both will fight it out to stay out of the cellar.

In the AFC East I llke for the Patriots to again dominate, with the fast improving Jets, led by Favre to finish second. I think Buffalo will edge out Miami for the third spot in that division.

In the AFC North, Pittsburgh will take this title with a real disappointing team of last year, the Cincinnati Bengals finishing second. Cleveland could be a contender if their play gets more consistence and the Ravens will finish their customary last.

I pick the Jacksonville Jags to upset the Colts this year in the AFC South and the Texans and Titans to finish behind, but both will create a lot of waves and could help decide who gets the top spot. The AFC South looks to be the toughness and most competitive division in the NFL.

The San Diego Chargers seem to be the darling of the AFC West with a struggling Bronco team fighting it out with the Raiders and the Chiefs to see who gets the higher draft picks.

I had an above average season picking winner last year (.654) and I hope to at least continue that this year.

Now for my picks for the first week of the 2008-09 season and with nothing to go on stat wise, it will be a tuffy:

THURSDAY;

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 (41) OVER WASHINGTON

Why? Because the Giants are at home and Washington has a new coach and are learning a new system. Is that reason enough?

SUNDAY GAMES;

CINCINNATI -1.5 (38) OVER BALTIMORE

Why? Because the Bengals are playing the Ravens. Beyond that, who really cares at this point of the season.

PHILADELPHIA -7.5 (44) OVER ST LOUIS

The Eagles are at home against a not so good Rams team and the Eagles want to show they are a contender. The Rams just want to competitive.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 (42.5) OVER TAMPA BAY

This will be the first show down game in the NFC South by the top two teams and the winner may be the one to win the division, then maybe its to early to tell.

SEATTLE +1 (39) OVER BUFFALO

Can't figure out why the odds makers make the Bills the favorite, east coast bais? Hmmm, then again maybe Seattle inconsistence play on the road is why.

DETROIT -3 (41) OVER ATLANTA

This game could be a toss up, we will have to wait and see what the new look in Atlanta will be. If its the old look, Detroit easy.

JACKSONVILLE -3 (33.5) OVER TENNESSEE

The Jags could win it all with a few breaks and a game like this might be one of those breaks needed.

NEW YORK JETS -3 (36) OVER MIAMI

I cross my fingers on this one, but with Favre at the helm I will give the Jets the edge.

PITTSBURGH -6.5 (43) OVER HOUSTON

Houston just hasn't played well on the road and this game won't be any different.

SAN DIEGO -9 (42) OVER CAROLINA

Another team who will be in the hunt for the AFC crown and rightly so.

DALLAS -5.5 (49) OVER CLEVELAND

This could be a lot closer than Cowboy fans would like, but I think Dallas will prevail.

NEW ENGLAND -16 (45) OVER KANSAS CITY

This is the biggest point spread of the week and Patriots will not disappoint.

ARIZONA -3 (42) OVER SAN FRANCISCO

Tough call, but if Arizona is to challenge Seattle they better win the games they are expected to.

INDIANAPOLIS -10 (44) OVER CHICAGO

Nothing to add here, could be a lot more than ten.

DOUBLE HEADER ON MNF

GREEN BAY -3 (38) OVER MINNESOTA

Maybe a bad pick, maybe, but the Pakers are at home and they don't seem to lose there very offen and for no other reason.

DENVER -3 (41) OVER OAKLAND

Ugh, I can't think of a worst game for MNF.

Well there are my first week picks, your comments are always welcome, good or bad.

PICKS AND PANS FOR WEEK ONE OF THE 2008-09 NFL FOOTBALL SEASON

Well here we go with the 2008-09 NFL season.

As usual the first week is the hardest to pick the winners, because the preseason is all about who makes the team and replace starters lost to retirement, free agency and/or injury. Most starters from last year either played very little or not at all, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are in the latter group.

Because I am a die hard Seattle Seahawk fan, most of my blogs will favor the Seahawks, whether you like it or not. Seattle rested most of their offensive starters the whole preseason, but played most of the defensive starters for longer periods of time in each preseason game. I was a little disappoointed by defensive picks in the draft because I still think Seattle's defense is way ahead of the offense. Seattle weaknesses were in special teams, offensive line and running back. With the acquisition of both Jones and Duckett and a little consistency by Morris maybe that position has been fixed. We will have to wait and see if this happens. The offensive line over a sixteen game season is my biggest worry. A few injuries and we could have major problems opening holes for these three guys. Special teams is another concern at the moment, I don't think Seattle fans will miss Josh Brown because his kick offs were way to short and were returned over the 30 yard line way to many times. With Coutu and Mare, and it looks like Holmgren has both kickers on the roster, it looks like the kicking game will improve. But I see plenty of holes in the kick off coverage and until something is done about that, long kick off will not be much of an advantage unless it is kicked out of the end zone instead of carried into it.

Well here goes with the 2008-09 season predictions. I will leave the weekly picks for later in the week when I have evaluated who has been cut, important injuries and what the finally line ups will be to start the season. But lets have a drum roll, please.

AFC EAST DIVISION

New England Patriots

New York Jets

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

AFC NORTH DIVISION

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore Ravens

AFC SOUTH DIVISION

Jacksonville jaguars

Indianapolis Colts

Houston Texans

Tennessee Titans

AFC WEST DIVISION

San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs

NFC NORTH DIVISION

Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers

Detroit Lions

Chicago Bears

NFC EAST DIVISION

Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles

New York Giants

Washington Redskins

NFC SOUTH DIVISION

New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers

Atlanta Falcons

NFC WEST DIVISION

Seattle Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers

St Louis Rams

Now we all know at the end of the season some of these teams will be wrong due to injuries and pure bad luck. but if the season goes like I think it should, it will be pretty close. I won't predict the playoffs or the Super Bowl until I know how the season is playing out. I think the odds makers have the PIatriots and Cowboys as the favorites but lest see what happens and revisit this on, let's say week ten or eleven.

Now NFL fans lest have some fun and your comments are always welcome good or bad.

Good luck to your team and I hope we all have a good season.

FIRST SEATTLE PRESEASON GAME OF THE 2008 SEASON

Seattle Seahawks opened their preseason with a win, but of course this game was just a meaningless preseason game, or was it? There are other factors to consider besides a win or a loss in any game in the preseason to consider. If some of the new bodies and a few old ones are to prove themselves to the coaches, this is the time to do it and prove they belong in a Hawks uniform. I will evaluate this first preseason game against Minnesota in a minute.

The two weak spots from last year, in my opinion, was the running game and the offensive line. After letting an ineffective Shaun Alexander go and with the addition of some new and old blood at running back we will see if the change is for the good or not. Maurice Morris is the front running at this point due to his being with the team for the last couple of years. Personally I don't think Julius Jones and/or TJ Duckett will be a good fit, I could be wrong, but only time will tell.

The offensive line is my biggest worry. While Chris Gray has retired and with Chris Spencer being hurt, neither had a good season last year, in fact the whole offensive line had a down season as the running game was ground to a halt most of the season. Veterans Walter Jones and Pork Chop Womack will have to led the way for the younger players by stepping up and create some holes. Seattle's running game must relieve some of the pressure off of  Seattle's passing game. I have a hard time seeing that happen with this offensive line.

Another sore spot is the kicking game. When Brown was lost to free agency it put two kickers and the Hawks on the spot. Only time will tell if they can step up and produce. I would like to see Brandon Coutu be given a fair shot to replace Brown as Olindo Mare is 33 and on the down side of his career. Seattle would be wise to go with as many young players as possible right down the line up. Special teams must stop teams inside the 30 on kick offs. High deep kicks are a must and believe it or not Brown didn't do that and too many kick returns were returned over the 30.

I must finish by saying that Seattle may have made a mistake by drafting defensive players and not shoring up the offensive line which was the weak link in Seattle Seahawks game last year. Look for that weakness to continue this year unless some of the Offensive line players step up and above all, stay healthy.

What I want to see in Seattle is consistency and leave the dumb players and dumb plays in the locker room.

Now for the first preseason game. Starting with the first half and the play of the potential starting players.

The starting offensive line play was sharp for being the first game. Hasselbeck played well and overall the entire offensive looked in mid-season form.

Pass defense started a little shaky and at times looked confused. But it seemed to be fixed by the second half. There was also a lack of a pass rush in the first half and it showed up with Minnesota recievers getting open. Rush defense played well the whole game, however at times tackling was a little...well it is the preseason.

Special teams play needs improvement just as it did last year in the kick off return area. It is unacceptable to allow the team you kick off to, to advance past the 30 as constantly as most teams do against Seattle.

Seneca Wallace played about as well as I have ever seen him play and that is hard for me to say as I haven't been a Seneca Wallace fan up until this point.

The five turnovers committed by the Vikings was their down fall and no TO's by Seattle in the first preseason game was a giant plus and shows good thing can happen in the regular season.

I have been following Seahawks football since day one and this is the best group of young players I've ever seen in the preseason. Hawthorn and Babin will make a great impact on Hawks football if they an continue their fine play.

I watched the Saints/Card game on Thursday past and if that is all the Arizona starters have, it will be a long season for the Cardinals again. The 49ers fail to score a touchdown against Oakland and their quarterback situation is up in the air again. I fail to see either of those teams putting pressure on Seattle for the NFL West title if those games are any indication.

This past week saw five of the eight divisional leaders and two of the wild cards go down to defeat. But I wouldn't read to much into these loses as most of the playoff bound teams rested their key players for the playoffs and none of these games meant any change in their positions in the final standings, although it changed who plays who in two games.

Washington win over Dallas was big for the Redskins as it assured them a spot against Seattle in the first round and eliminated the one dimensional Minnesota Viking who went down in overtime to a so-so Denver team who were able to controll Adrian Peterson and won in the mile high city. Baltimore win against the Steelers didn't save their coaches job as predicted in last weeks column but might have been costly to the Steelers as injuries continue to mount. Tampa Bay losing three out of their last four didn't bode well for their coach as he didn't sound to happy about their chances against the Giants in an after game interview.  Speaking of the Giants, they probably played their best game this season in losing effort to the Patriots.  The Patriots, whom I predicted would not rest their key players, fought a very determined Giants team before winning and as a result set all the records that will stand for many years to come. But the victory didn't come easily for New England and they had to rally in the second half to complete a spectacular, well deserved undefeated season. Tennessee edged the Colts and with their win got the last wild card in the AFC edging out  the Browns, inspite of Cleveland's win over the hapless 49ers. Houston finished the season winning again at home beating Jacksonville and the Atlanta Falcons overcome a very dismal season and upset the Seahawks at home. The rest of the games played on Sunday were of no consequence one way or the other, they all knew they would be watching the playoffs at home.

This last week of the regular season was, as I said in my last Picks and Pans, would be a hard week to predict the scores and it was. Most of the teams in contention did rest their players to one extent or the other and it effected some of the scores as predicted. But I did come up with a 10-6 finish. For the year I finished with 154 right and 81 wrong which comes out to about an average of 10.5 wins for each week I predicted scores.

My picks for the first round of the playoffs are:

Note: From now on I will put the Vegas line in each prediction and will update it daily if required.

ON SATURDAY

SEATTLE -3.5 (40) OVER WASHINGTON

Washington is coming off a win against the Cowboys at home, but don't look for reasons in that game that Washington is suddenly a power house team. Remember the Coweboys didn't play their front line players when the game was on the line and Washngton had to win to even be in the playoffs. Seattle is 7-1 at home and the Skins are only 4-4 on the road. Washington top quarterback is doubtful and even if he did play, how effective would he be? The quarterback position is in Seattle favor as are the wide receivers. Seattle defense has proven it can stop the run and the pass consistently and if Seattle can stop Portis effectively, they should be able to beat the  Redskins. On the other hand, Seattle running game has been showing some life and  have three backs who can and will carry the ball against the Redskins effectively. Statistically the Seahaws shoud be and are the favorite as they lead in every key statistic both offensively and defensively. Although this will be a close game the Hawks should win by lets say 24-17.

JACKSONVILLE -2 (39) OVER PITTSBURGH

Jacksonville won the previous game in Pittsburgh and will win this game as well. Willie Parker, who is one of the top running backs in the league is out and that makes the Steelers a little too much one dimensionally to be able to win this game. I'm not sure if Roethisberger or Polamalu will play, both were doubtful last week, but since the Steelers were resting their front line players, only time will tell. The Jaguars will run the ball and run run it effectively against one of the top defenses, but has been decimated by injuries late in the season. Depending on the weather this game could be low scoring and close and don't look for the Steelers to go down easily. Jacksonville to win 17-14

SUNDAY GAMES

NEW YORK GIANTS +3 EVEN (391/2) OVER TAMPA BAY

The Giants proved they can play with the best in last weeks game with the New England Patriots and will go into Tampa Bay with all the confidence in the world. Remember the Patriots played Brady and most of their offensive starters the whole game and only pulled out the game late in the fourth quarter. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost three out of the last four games and have seemed to have lost momentum along the way. With Galloway doubtful the Giants have the edge in both receivers and the quarterback position. The Giants are 7-1 on the road this year and will continue to play well. The Giants have the better overall defense and offense statisteic wise so look for the Giants to combine their running and passing game for the win, lets say 24-17.

SAN DIEGO -9 (40) OVER TENNESSEE

The difference in this game, LaDainian Tomlinson! Although Rivers is not that impressive or consistence at quarterback, all he has to do is hand the ball off to Tomlinson to win this game. Well almost! The Chargers have a six game winning streak and the Titans have limped into the playoffs with a sluggish win over the Colts, who rested Manning for most of the game. The Titans offense have struggled all season and have given up almost as many points on defense as they have scored. Look for LaDianian Tomlinson to score a couple times and put the Titans away 34-14.

What is Parity? In the NFL it means every team at the beginning of the season has an equal chance too win the Super Bowl.

Sounds simple doesn't it? Ya right! Tell that to the Miami Dolphins.

What is the cause of Parity, if such a beast exist? Could it be the salary cap? A lack of talent? Free agencies? Could coaching changes by good teams cause them to become mediocre after a good season? Or is it a combination of all the above, or none of the above?

I think its time we forget the notion of parity in the NFL and I will point out why.

To start out, look at New England, as of today they have a 15 game win streak, and don't forget the Miami Dolphins, who are 1-14. No parity there!  True, winning streaks out pace losing streaks by only a slim margin. There have been 28 streaks of at least four victories or four losses in 2007, 15 winning and 13 losing. But look at some of the winning streaks, the Patriots lead with 15 straight and Dallas has had streaks of five and seven games. The Colts have had streaks of seven and six games and Green Bay has had two streaks of four and six games. San Diego is finishing the season with five in a row. Long losing streaks by teams such as the Ravens (9) and San Francisco (8) should dispel any notion of parity in the win/lost category. There are just teams that win and teams that don't and overall they are the same teams year after year.

The NFL salary cap is define as the maximum amount that a team may spend on player compensation. The cap is calculated by the curent Collective Bargaining Agreement or CBA and is set to be 59.5% of the total projected league revenue. This number divided by the number of teams determines the amount of the cap, thus $102 million per team. (2006 figures)

Lets now look at the salary cap. One would have to think this would lead to parity. (remember there will be a difference between my figures and the real figures due to my figures are based on the 2006 season, but the difference overall is minor) But the salary cap doesn't cause players to move to teams who need them to fill holes, and not necessarity to teams who can afford them. Make sense? (I will explain this in depth later on when I examining the coaching staffs) Look at it this way, the 49ers picked up a couple free agents and expected great things and a winning season, didn't happen. Seattle on the other hand picked up a couple free agents to shore up their defensive back field and, well the rest is history. Seattle has one of the best pass defenses in the NFC and the reason was the addition of free agents. I could go on team by team, but you get the idea by these two examples.

The salary cap for the NFL is $102 million per team, at least was in 2006. The 2007 salary for every player is not available, (although the cap for the 2007 season is around $109 million) so all figures used here are 2006 figures. Just before the season started every team was under the cap except the Colts and the Redskins which are a few million over. In fact one of the better teams in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers are under the cap the most at $35 million, which means they have a total salary of around $67 million. Go figure! Here are some of the other good teams and the cap, Cowboys $22.6 million under and the Patriots, $16.9 million under. Some of the not so lucky teams such as Miami are under the cap by $6.3 million, which means the Dolphins have a total salary of $95.7 million, almost $30 million more paid in salary than the Packers and $10 million more than the Patriots. So much for money buying championships. The Ravens are $10.6 million under the salary cap and are in the same boat as the Dolphins. So spending money or free agents are not going to guarantee any team success on the field. That should also dispel any notion the salary cap is the cause of parity.

So what does this all show? It shows that spending money doesn't necessaily create a good team or a good record. By the way, Seattle is $17.3 million under the cap. If the talent is needed and is out there, there is plenty of money to go out and get it. I think the problem is the lack of talent available out there on the free market and ownership who are too tight to spend up to the cap level. Why would they? When teams can't sell out and are being blacked out because the fans aren't going to the games. It creates a vicious cycle that takes years and sometimes new ownership to break that cycle and the only ones to suiffer are the fans. High draft picks for bad teams don't guarantee winning seasons, Reggie Bush, Ricky Williams and Matt Leinart are a good example of that.

Well what does lead to a good record? Coaching leads to a good record. Coaches who can get the most out of a player will win the most games. Coaches such as Belichick is the best of the coaches today and John Madden of years passed are prime examples ot this. Yes I know there are other fine coaches out there, but I personally think these two are/or were the best. A top notch front office can also lead to getting the players needed to fill holes in any team, but that won't guarantee success. Team players are the answer and they are the hardest to find. One of the better pick ups was free agent Terrell Owens of the Dallas Cowboys (team player? depend if you like him or not)  but will he help Dallas win the Superbowl, time and most likely the Patriots will tell if they can.

Here is an example of coaching changes that caused teams to become stagnate after a couple good years. After the 2004-05 season which the Patroits won their 3rd Superbowl they lost both their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator and haven't been to the Superbowl since. The '85 Bears lost their defensive coordinator and they never make it back in spite of having Ditka, Payton and other great stars. San Diego got off to a slow start this year, and if you look at the coaching changes you may discover the reason. Offensive coach Cam Cameron, who was responsible for an offense who featured LaDainian Tomlinson is now head coach of Miami. Defensive coach Wade Phillips is now head coach of Dallas. Marty Schottenheimer getting fired after going 14-2 is unconscionable to me. But Norv Turner, in my opinion should be coach of the year for getting the Chargers a shot at the big show after having to start the season from scratch and with a completely new coaching staff to boot.

Parity in the NFL, I don't think there is such a beast, at least in the 2007-08 NFL there's not.