So this post is dedicated to the realistic MVP candidates. Which may include some names you haven't thought of.
Earlier i made a post campaigning Radke for the MVP, obviously he will not get it, because the voters are all about sexy numbers, not intangible impact.
The AL MVP discussion is irrelevant without mentioning Ortiz. So I will get the obligatory... Ortiz is so damn clutch argument out of the way now. His late-game heroics have been well-publicized... and I mean WELL publicized. (ESPN should move their studios to fenway for easier access to Ortiz highlights).
His bat is incredible. But with the Sox slipping in the standings, his MVP that seemed to be a lock a week or so ago, is looking less secure.
A DH has an incredible hurdle in their path to the MVP. They are automatically lowered in the standings due to the fact they do not play defense. It's a fair criticism, because if their numbers are close to a position players, the defensive play could tip the scales away from the DH.
For a DH to win the award his numbers would have to be well above the rest, and Ortiz's are not far enough ahead at this point for him to deserve the award (although if I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Big Papi because of the support he has gathered from the media monster located in boston... I mean bristol.
If not Ortiz, who else?
Well there are several other candidates. Manny Ramirez is having a great season, and is quietly keeping pace with Ortiz, with much less fan-fare. Manny is a headcase, and a liability in the field, but it's his presence that forces opposing managers to pick their poi sen in late innings. (Walk ortiz to face manny?)
But neither Boston candidate deserves the award. One thing that must be considered is a player's impact on the team. The Red Sox have two MVP candidates, which means they could survive without one of those players IMO. They may not be a contender, but they would still be a winning team.
Of course a Yankee has to be mentioned in this conversation. The obvious candidate seems to be Jeter. In a year where everything went wrong for the Yankees in terms of injuries, Jeter was a rock and kept the Yankees close to the Bo-sox. But Jeter is also hurt by the team around him. MVP means most valuable, and Jeter's value to the Yankees is huge, but because he is surrounded by superstars, nobody can say that the Yankees would suck without him.
A couple more candidates at DH include Jim Thome and Travis Hafner, but their absence in the field, coupled with numbers that do not separate themselves from the rest of the candidates, make them unappealing candidates for the award. (also, in Hafner's case, the success of the Indians is also a factor)
So with all of these players undeserving... who the hell deserves it?
Joe Mauer has received some publicity for the MVP race. While his numbers are very nice, and surprising for a catcher with his defensive ability, his impact on the Twins is not greater than one of his teammates.
Justin Morneau. Morneau plays firstbase for the Twins, and has had the quietest spectacular season this year. His numbers are right behind Ortiz in terms of HR, RBI and is ahead in Average. He is the Twins first 30+ HR hitter since 1987. He leads the league in 2 out RBI (yes, ahead of Mr. Clutch Ortiz). And his glove has put him on baseball tonight's webgems several times this year.
SO I present to you, the AL's most deserving MVP candidate half of you never even considered before. Justin Morneau
Baseball is a beautiful thing. It's a timeless game that shows you don't need to be an athelete to be successful (Ex. Dennis Reyes). The sport is one of the few that can be accurately broken down statistically, which widens it's appeal to even the nerdiest among us :). But the game also contains many intangibles that don't show up in a stat-book, giving appeal to the purists.
But there are some things fundamentally wrong with the sport I have grown to love. Most of those problems come down to economics.
In every sport their is a gap between the large markets, and the small markets. Football is the best example of how that can be overcome. But in baseball the gap between the have's and Devil Rays has become nearly insurrmountable.
Many Yankee apologists claim that the Yankees luxury tax dollars are doing plenty shorten the gap. Which is partially true. The revenue sharing, which the Yankees are the greatest donor, has kept many franchises afloat in the past few years, including the bumbling Royals.
But the Luxury tax is not enough. The Yankees, Red Sox and other large market clubs will trade those millions for championships every day of the week becuase of the dollars they bring in.
My suggestion to fix this problem is nothing new. Baseball needs a salary cap.
The biggest reason baseball needs a salary cap is not the cummulative number that the Yankees and Red Sox reach in player contracts. Those numbers are well publicized, and beaten to death by people like me.
The reason the Yankees and Red Sox are bad for baseball are individual player contracts. I'll use Johnny Damon as the example.
Johnny Damon was plucked from the Red Sox by the Yankees. With that, came claims of evil empire from the Bo-sox faithfull who fail to realize they sold their souls when they bought a world series in 2004.
Damon's contract is greatly overvalued in terms of production, but the Yankees don't care... what's overpaying 5-10 million when you have a 200+ million dollar payroll? What Damon's contract did was effectively set the bar for contracts to come. Centerfielders like Hunter and Mathewe's Jr. will look at Damon's millions and demand comprable contracts.
Baseball contracts have little to do with what a player's production is worth, it has everything to do with what team is willing to overpay the most for said player's services. With the Yankees and Bo-sox continually setting the bar at this level for contracts, small market teams like the Twins face tough decisions. Can they afford to keep a veteran who has been the face of the franchise for years AND lock-up their emerging young talent? Or will they be forced to pick and choose which players they can afford to lose to keep their finances out of the red?
Should teams be forced to deficit spend to keep pace with the Brenner's? Of course not! Yet most Yankee and Red Sox apologists point to the rich owners and say "invest more in your team, and you can be just like us!" Well I don't think anyone in their right mind would want to be like them.
I propose a soft salary cap. The Maximum salary would be somewhere between 85-100 million dollars. But there would be ways for teams to keep their own talent together.
Free Agency would work like this:
Re-Signing/Arbitration period. Arbitration rules would remain in effect, no changes to that portion of the offseason. Teams have an unlimited payroll to re-sign their own players, They can exceed the cap to re-sign their own players granted that 65% of that roster has spent 3 or more years either on the team's roster, or in that team's minor league system.
This would encourage teams to build baseball teams the way it was intended. Through great minor league scouting, and building a franchise from the ground up.
Unrestricted Free Agency Period: at this point, any un-signed player would become a free agent, their former teams lose the right to re-sign them and exceed the cap at this point.
Teams over the cap can sign players to minor league contracts not to exceed 500K to fill out their roster.
This is a system very similar to the NBA style system, which I think would work much better than the Laisse-faire type of system currently used
It wasn't long ago, the AL Central was regarded as baseball's weakest division. This year, the Tigers are baseball's best team, and the top two teams in the Wild Card race are the White Sox and the Twins.
The Al Central will send two teams to the ALCS. And this blog will tell you exactly how that will work out.
Step one: The Twins will beat out the White Sox for the Wild Card. The Twins were beaten by the White sox only once out of the last 6 meetings. The lone White Sox win was a result of uncharictalistically poor defensive play, including a gift double that castillo lost in the lights, a ball through the legs of Punto, and a bad throw by Bartlett. The White Sox only mustered 2 earned runs in that game.
The Twins are winning games even without their pitching phenom Liriano. His return is set for mid-september, and with that comes a late playoff push. This race will likely come down to the final series of the season, which just happens to be between the White Sox and Twins. And with a healthy Liriano, the Twins will be sure to send out Santana-Radke-Liriano for that final series, and I'll take my chances with those match-ups.
Step Two: The Tigers will win the AL Central. They have stumbled a bit, but no team can play at that pace forever.
Step three: The Playoff matchups. If the season ends the way I expect it to, The Twins will face the Yankees in a short series. Meaning the Yankees will see Johan Twice, along with LIriano and Radke. In a 7 game series, the match-up may slide ot the Yankees favor, but in a short series I think the Twins would beat any team in the majors.
That would leave the Tigers vs Whomever comes out of the AL West. Whether it be the A's Angels or Rangers, the result will be the same. Baseball's best team will cruise to victory.
This could mean that two teams from the AL Central would play for the ALCS, a series that may not have the ratings of Yankees-Red Sox, but will be one of the best series of baseball we've seen in many years. This will likely go 7 games, and it will all rely on the health of each teams' respective rookie pitcher. Verlander's health, Vs Liriano's health will decide the series.
So take that Large Market baseball. The Twins and Tigers are here to stay, and everybody's favorite cursed franchise will begin it's whining once again.
Well, the trade deadline has come and gone... I effectively killed an hour of work checking cnnsi.com & listening to KFAN waiting on pins and needles for news.
I had some ideas for the Twins pre-deadline, but I knew they were long-shots, mostly "pie in the sky" type of deals... And as I stated in Cuzzifer's blog, I did not expect any twins related notes, beyond Lohse being shipped off.
Well that opinion proved to be true as my beloved Twins dumped Kyle Lohse on the Reds, obtaining a decent minor leaguer with a 7-0 record with a 2.5 ish ERA in Single A Durham.
In this deal I think the Twins come out smelling like roses, dumping a terrible clubhouse presence, with no future in the organization (and no production) for a minor leaguer with a chance to be something in the majors.
Maybe Lohse's demotion to Four A (the NL) will allow him to find some confidence he has sorely lacked in the AL... but I doubt he does anything but implode for the Reds. The Reds GM should have known better, he is a former Twins assistant GM and he knows what Kyle Lohse is, but like an alzheimer's patient he decides he would love to see what Kyle can do again.
But enough Twins talk here, this blog is intended to branch out into all of the deals. So without further adui, I bring to you Trade Deadline: Winners and Losers.
New York Yankees acquire OF Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle from Phillies for Four Minor Leaguers.
The Yankees once again have proven themselves to be the evil empire. Taking on outrageous contracts no other team in the league could take on. Abreu's contract is ridiculously high, and the Yankees have no problems paying it because of how desperate they are in the outfield (Sheffield, Matsui down with injuries).
The Bigger story on the Yankees side of this deal is starter Corey Lidle. He may not look like much... 4.5 ish ERA, but he gives the Yankees definite consistency at the bottom of their rotation, and allow the Yankees to go 5 deep with starters who will give the Yankees chances to win games.
Lidle's value at the deadline is a great illustration of how weak the pitching market was this year. Everybody wanted pitching, but nobody had it to give because of the relative mediocrity of the NL, and the AL West.
The Phillies do not come out very well in this deal... Smith is a good prospect, but SS CJ Henry has shown absolutely nothing so far in his career. Monasterios also looks like a decent pitcher, but none of these players will make up for the talent lost in this deal.
The only saving grace the Phillies have is the amount of money they will be saving by getting rid of Abreu. The Phillies now have flexibility to make some additions to their roster to improve a couple of positions.
The Winner: Yankees
The Loser: Phillies
Yankees Trade SP Shawn Chacon to Pirates for OF/IF Craig Wilson.
The Yankees made another solid move, getting rid of a 5th starter who will be supplanted by Corey LIdle, and picked up a versatile player in Craig Wilson. Craig Wilson is nothing to go crazy about, but will give the Yankees a solid first baseman. But his acquisition is not all golden. When Sheffield and Matsui comes back, there will be some serious problems about playing time, and in the end a good player is going to wind up on the bench.
What are the Pirates thinking here? Craig Wilson should be one of the players they try to keep around, and build a contender with. In exchange they get Shawn Chacon. Chacon's ERA is in the 7's. The pirates have thrown in the towel for the next 2 or 3 years based on the moves they have made.
Winner: Yankees
Loser: Pirates
Pirates Trade SP Oliver Perez and RP Roberto Hernandez for OF Xavier Nady
The Mets have picked up a couple of solid pitchers for Nady in this deal. Oliver Perez is having a terrible year, but has lots of potential, and has shown that potential in the past. Given time Oliver Perez may make the Mets fans forget about the deadline deal that sent away Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. But the key component of this deal for 2006 is Robert Hernandez. In 24 appearances for the Pirates, Herneandez has posted a sub 3 ERA and has earned a couple of saves. He will step in and be an excellent set-up man for the Mets.
Nady Takes some of the Sting away from the Craig Wilson Deal, and will give the Pirates a good young outfielder for several years. He has decent pop, but really won't turn many heads in the batters box. I think the Pirates will regret this deal as well because they are sending off a quality young arm in Oliver Perez, who I believe given time will get back to his previous form and live up to potential.
Winner: Mets
Loser: Pirates
Pirates trade SP Kip Wells to Rangers for Minor Leaguer Jesse Chavez.
The Pirates finally made a move that made some sense. Kip Wells is a struggling, aging pitcher, and acquired a relief prospect that has recently made the jump to AAA. Chavez is nothing spectacular as far as relief pitchers come, but in the future he could be a decent middle reliever for the Pirates.
The Rangers made a smart move and added pitching. Even the 1-5 6+ ERA Wells is an upgrade over the pathetic staff known as the Texas Rangers. He should step into the rotation, and if he improves slightly keep the Rangers offense close enough to score some runs and get a win. Kip is by no means a game changing player, but he gives the Rangers yet another boost to make a charge in the AL West.
Winner: Pirates (Bout time they came out better in a trade)
Loser: Rangers (Kip Wells is a good move, but likely wont' make much difference in the rotation.. this trade is close to even)
Rangers acquire OF Matt Stairs from Royals for Joselo Diaz.
Matt Stairs will provide the Rangers with a good bench player, improving their depth. The Rangers gave up two Outfielders to get Carlos Lee, leaving a gap for Stairs to fill.
Joselo Diaz is another Rangers pitcher who has recently made the jump to AAA. He is averaging over one strike out per inning, and has seen time as a starter and as a reliever giving the Royals a versatile Arm in their system.
Winner: Royals
Loser: Rangers
Royals Trade SP Affeldt and Bautista To Rockies for Shealy and Dohmann
The Royals made a smart move here building for the future. It's obvious the Royals aren't contenders in the AL Central, and won't be for a considerable amount of time and the Royals are using the deadline to load up on prospects in hopes of a few panning out. Shealy seems to be a legit prospect, with 15 HR in AAA so far this year he could see some time with the big league squad soon. Dohmann hasn't pitched much this season, but has posted a 2ish ERA at both AAA and AA. The Royals got a lot of value for a couple of players who really haven't performed well for them.
The Rockies have traded for a couple of Royals pitchers with 5+ ERA's. Nothing out of the ordinary considering the lack of talent on that royals roster, but the Rockies gave up a lot to get these two. I think the Rockies will be disappointed in the talent they have received and will likely end up regretting this deal.
Winner: Royals
Loser: Rockies
Padres receive IF Todd Walker and 350K from Cubs for Jose Ceda.
Walker is a versatile infielder who can play 3 infield positions (badly). He is more known for his offensive #'s which haven't been up to par this year, but he should provide the Padres with a player who could hit #2 for them.
Jose Ceda is a small price to give up for a veteran presence like Walker. Ceda has posted a 5+ ERA in the minors, but averages over a strikeout per inning. The Cubs are far from contenders at this point, even in the pathetic league we call the NL. They are doing the smart thing and looking to the future.
Winner: Padres
Loser: Cubs
Dodgers Acquire Julio Lugo from D-Rays for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza
This trade works out well for both squads. The Dodgers are receiving a quality SS to replace Izturis. This should improve the Dodgers lineup dramatically and they should make a strong push for the playoffs despite being 5 games out of the race.
Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza are legit prospects in the Mets organization. Pedroza has struggled in the advanced A league, but posted some solid #'s at the lower of the two A leagues. Guzman is a great prospect for the D-rays he should be the 3rd baseman of the future for them.
Both teams made out well in this deal. The Dodgers have gotten themselves closer to a playoff appearance, and the D-rays bright future has gotten even brighter. Both teams are Winners in this deal.
Dodgers acquire SP Greg Maddux from Cubs for IF Cesar Izturis
Greg Maddux doesn't have much left in the tank, but he should give the Dodgers some help at the bottom of their rotation, and provide them with some veteran leadership. Izturis is one of the more disappointing players in baseball, he was a player I thought would do big things in his career, but he hasn't panned out. Izturis should provide an a replacement for Walker, and will help out the Cubs build for the future. Another good deal for both teams.
