Coming into the season, the Detroit Tigers were widely praised for "winning the offseason." After all, they had just traded for perennial all-star Miguel Cabrera and former Cy Young runner up, Dontrelle Willis. These moves excited a Tigers fan base who had lost the World Series two years prior.

The Tigers thought they had acquired a young, Hall of Fame talent in Cabrera, whose closest 4 year comp has continued to be Hank Aaron. What team wouldn’t want Cabrera? However, Larry Beinfest managed to play Dave Dombrowski like a fiddle. Cabrera was the best name in the deal, and he has had an average year thus far, though he is still far below his career norms.

The second biggest name in the deal, Dontrelle Willis, added size to the deal just based on reputation alone. Looking at Willis’ numbers, it’s clear that he is one of the most overrated and overvalued talents in baseball. Save his 2005 season, Willis has been relatively mediocre in the big leagues. There has been a three year trend with Willis that is exceptionally alarming. Each year his strikeouts decrease, walks increase and hits allowed increases. These numbers, his peripherals, all are trending downwards.

When statistically evaluating a pitcher, it is important not to fall victim to the rate statistics. A pitcher’s earned run average, ERA, fluctuates from year to year based on many confounding variables—defense, park factor, schedule, scoring, et al. However, his hit, walks and strikeouts per 9 innings pitched tend to remain steadfast and offer a true indicator of success. When a player is in his prime, these numbers often improve and offer a pattern of prediction for value.

Marlins fans clamored when their team traded away their two biggest names, leaving only Hanley Ramirez. However, it is clear that Larry Beinfest knows what he is doing and Dave Dombrowski was still enamored with the big name. Though Andrew Miller hasn’t pitched particularly well in 2008, he is still offering the same production Willis would have at a tenth of the cost.

Below will show the extreme disparity in Willis’ numbers and trend. It’s a shame to see the career unfolding before our eyes of a young, by all accounts nice man.