It’s been said you can tell a lot about a person by
her shoes. And now, as CBS 2’s Vince Gerasole reports, shoes may also
say something about who takes the lead in a crisis and who follows in
another’s footsteps.
New research suggests those buying three pairs of sneakers a
year are more likely to be walking in the shoes of a serious leader.
We must know how many pairs of shoes Derek Jeter and Aaron Rowand buy per year!
It is only when we get a hold of these figures that we can take
Sabermetric research seriously. Seriously, think of SPARP — Shoes
Purchased Above Replacement Player and its partner, LQ — Leadership
Quotient. What is being divided, I don’t know, but until then, you
calculator nerds continue holding down the couch springs in your mothers’ basements.
The Washington Nationals are now in Philadelphia following an
exciting Opening Day 3-2 win last night against the Atlanta Braves that
saw third baseman Ryan Zimmerman christen new Nationals Stadium with a
walk-off solo home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Odalis Perez
— who drew interest from a new teams including the Phillies — started
for the Nats and was stunningly effective: 5 innings, four hits, one
walk, and one run — a solo homer to Chipper Jones.
Lefty Matt Chico will start for the Nationals as Brett Myers takes
the hill for the Phillies in the Citizens Bank Park season opener. Keep
an eye on Nationals closer Chad Cordero. He was warming up to come in
for the ninth inning to try and nail down a 2-1 lead, but he never came
in, and was instead replaced by Jon Rauch, who blew the save. Cordero
has right shoulder tendinitis and it may prevent him from appearing in
any games against the Phillies.
Obviously, the Phillies’ 25-man roster is now set, and the only
surprises should be Tim Lahey and Wes Helms. Lahey was just acquired
and he has to stay on the 25-man roster or be offered back to the Cubs,
as it goes with Rule-5 acquisitions. Helms somehow made it onto the
roster despite being a player having no purpose, quite literally. Most
(or maybe just me) thought that he’d be dealt before the end of spring
training. There were rumors, including a trade to San Francisco for
lefty reliever Steve Kline, but that deal fell through and Kline was
simply dropped by the Giants. With Greg Dobbs and Eric Bruntlett on the
roster, Helms shouldn’t see a great deal of time — or any — at third
base. Nor should he see any time at first base with Ryan Howard there
and plenty of other players able to man the position at a higher level,
and it’s extremely unlikely they’d use him in a corner outfield spot
unless there are a rash of injuries.
I feel sorry for Helms despite all of the items I threw at my TV screen last year after many of his at-bats.
Some Publicity
Chris Illuminati of PhillyBurbs.com
and I corresponded on a piece they were doing called “The Must-Have
Book Guide” for the upcoming baseball season. I, of course, suggested
The Bill James Handbook. Check it out here if you’re interested.
Tim Malcom
of Phillies Nation organized a “Phloggers Roundtable” — a discussion of
the 2008 Phillies team by the bloggers that cover them. I was joined by
Tom Goyne of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff
as well. Unfortunately, there were a few who weren’t able to make it
but some did participate later on, including Enrico Campitelli of The 700 Level, Erik Grissom of Phillies Flow, and GM Carson of We Should be GM’s.
You didn’t hear it here, but… Pat Gillick is good at acquiring
damaged goods. Before last season, Gillick traded for Freddy Garcia and
sent failed project Gavin Floyd and prized left-hander and strikeout
artist Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox. Garcia’s tenure with the Phillies
was most unimpressive: 11 starts, 58 innings, 5.90 ERA, and a 1.6 WHIP.
His season was shut down on June 8 after a chronic shoulder problem
could be hidden no longer.
General manager Pat Gillick insisted Garcia wasn’t
“damaged goods” when the team acquired him. Even though some reports
said Garcia’s velocity was down toward the end of last season, the
Phillies didn’t make the trade contingent upon him passing a physical.
“We didn’t think a physical was necessary,” Gillick said. “Our
doctors spoke to their doctors and our training staff spoke to theirs
and we were satisfied his health was good. Our scouts saw him pitch in
September. They thought he was healthy.”
Breathe easy — the Phillies did, in fact, require Lidge to pass a
physical before completing the trade with the Houston Astros and new GM
Ed Wade.
The flame-throwing right-hander threw one pitch on Saturday and
ended up re-injuring his right knee. Lidge had surgery on the knee in
October and the Phillies required him to have surgery once again, a
partial medial menisectomy. It was successful:
“The other side of the knee is fine,” Phillies
trainer Scott Sheridan told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark on Monday. Sheridan
called Lidge’s injury and the subsequent successful surgery “the
best-case scenario” for the Phillies.
[…]
“Right now, if we had to do this during the season, then
obviously you’re missing a big chunk of the season,” Lidge said. “I
definitely need a few bullpen sessions, but I feel like my arm is ahead
of schedule so after a week I should be able to throw again.”
Tom Gordon will take over as closer in the meantime, and Brett Myers will not be returning to the bullpen.
The Lidge injury has to make you wonder about Gillick, though. He’s
acquired a few who have had some kind of injury risk come to fruition.
Adam Eaton and Tom Gordon are a couple that come to mind besides Garcia
and Lidge.
Lohse said he would still welcome a return to
Philadelphia, but the Phillies didn’t like his salary demands after
they were shunned in what was believed to have been an offer in the
three-year, $20-million range. Of course, that could change if Brad
Lidge’s right knee is serious, and Brett Myers shifts back to the
bullpen.
I never thought I’d say this about any league-average starting
pitcher, but the Phillies need Kyle Lohse. He would bump the
injury-prone and highly unimpressive Adam Eaton from the rotation and
give the Phillies league-average production from the #5 spot, an
offering most teams would love to have (which makes Lohse’s continued
unemployment all the more perplexing).
The Phillies are correct in being offended at Lohse’s high demands,
but three years, $20 million is also insulting to Lohse based on the
current market.
It would be insulting to me, as a Phillies fan, if I was to find out
that Gillick or Amaro have stopped talking to Lohse after he rejected
that three-year offer. The Phillies need a reliable starting rotation
like a diabetic needs insulin [insert laugh track].
Scott Rolen would have waived his no-trade clause to return to Philadelphia had the chance presented itself this winter.
I will let the numbers speak for themselves.
Scott Rolen avg. WARP with Cardinals (2003-07): 7.86 (excludes ‘02 when he was traded from the Phillies and includes his injury-plagued ‘05 season).
Pedro Feliz avg. WARP with Giants since getting regular playing time: 4.10.
Of course, their contracts have to be taken into account as well (information per Cot’s Contracts).
Rolen: $11 million in each of ‘08, ‘09, and ‘10 with an extra $4 million bonus due in ‘10; full no-trade clause.
Feliz: $3 million in ‘08, $5 million in ‘09, and a $5 million club option in ‘10 with a $500,000 buyout.
If the Phillies had acquired Rolen instead of Feliz, they’d be
paying an extra $8 million this season and $6 million in ‘09 for about
three and a half extra wins. And the Phillies would have had to have
sent something of value to the Jays.
The problem with Rolen, of course, is his injury propensity. After
getting 400+ AB in every season from 1997-2004, he failed to cross that
plateau in 2005 (196 AB) and ‘07 (392 AB). Feliz has no nagging injury
problems.
As for the poor relationship between the Phillies’ front office and Rolen:
“We felt if he came in and played well, all that
other stuff would be water under the bridge,” [Phillies Assistant GM
Mike] Arbuckle said. “But if we guessed wrong on the shoulder, we
didn’t think we’d be in a position to absorb another injury that would
limit our flexibility to fill other needs.”
Rolen definitely would’ve been a better acquisition, but given his
salary, it may have hindered the ability for the Phillies to sign
anyone else, like Kyle Lohse. Of course, if the Phillies fail to pick
up another pitcher, it will all be moot…
There’s a lot of Rowand to quote from that article, so I won’t do it
here, but to paraphrase, he’s offended that Pat Gillick considered him
an injury risk and that the Phillies didn’t see him as part of their
“core.”
“I’ve been on the DL twice in my life, not just in my
professional career. That includes college, high school. And it was
both in ‘06. [Gillick] saw me play for 2 years and I was on the DL
twice. But, knock on wood, I’ve been lucky. I’d be lying to you if I
said that didn’t bother me.”
Rowand took a five-year, $60 million deal from a last place team.
Obviously, money is his #1 priority, especially since he’s already won
a World Series and he has a mainstream following. Giving $12 million a
year to a player who puts his own safety at risk (link — go to May 11) and his teammates’ as well,
is not smart. Add to that he’s a slightly better than average center
fielder both offensively and defensively, and it’s just not smart to
lock him up long-term, especially at an average of $12 million per
season.
One can’t fault Rowand, however, for chasing the bigger contract.
Just don’t feel sorry for him when the Giants hit 70 wins two weeks
away from the end of September, while the Phillies are in the thick of
a race for the NL East crown.
Rollins doesn’t have much to be angry about. He’s
the reigning National League MVP and seems to have a lot of fun with
this stuff. But according to a report by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, a few of
Rollins’ Philly teammates have been privately fuming about Beltran’s
comments and even suggested to Stark that “there will be a brawl this
year.”
Brawls, of course, are awesome because you get to watch around 75
grown men pretend they know how to fight. Most times, these brawls just
result in a little pushing and shoving with no punches thrown. However,
a couple one-on-one match-ups would be interesting:
Pat Burrell vs. Billy Wagner: Their verbal
sparring boiling over into a physical confrontation would almost be too
entertaining for cable TV. Burrell, of course, called Wagner a “rat”
after he left the Phillies for the Mets. In 2007, Burrell victimized
Billy Wagner twice:
June 7: Burrell ties the game up at 3 apiece with a solo home run to left-center.
August 30:
Burrell hits a solo home run to left field to bring the Phillies one
run behind the Mets at 10-9. The next inning, Jayson Werth singled and
stole both second and third base (Wagner is awful at holding runners).
He was promptly driven in by Tadahito Iguchi to tie the game at 10
apiece.
Brett Myers vs. Anna Benson: It’s unlikely these
two would come to blows, even though Anna is a woman and Brett loves
hitting women. Should there be a bench-clearing brawl, it is highly
likely Mrs. Benson has sequestered a young lad in the pits of Citizens Bank Park for, I don’t know, a talk?
Shane Victorino vs. Jose Reyes: This duel would
not be settled via fisticuffs; rather, the two would engage in a
footrace to settle the question, “Who is the fastest player in Major
League Baseball?”
The rest have joined pitchers and catchers for some spring training
fun in the sun, and you know what that means: it’s time for Mike
Schmidt to open his mouth again!
If these guys cut their strikeouts down to 75 or 80,
they put the ball in play 85 or 90 more times a year. That’s at least
15 more home runs and at least 35 more RBIs. If only they had choked up
with two strikes, spread their stances out. What they are doing now is
not great, it is mediocrity.
Let’s just say that Schmidt has changed his stance on Burrell. On
Comcast SportsNet, he thinks Burrell will be the next Phillies MVP. And
given that this is Burrell’s last season before free agency, we can
safely assume he’s talking about 2008. What sparked the change of heart
for Schmidt?
Could it have been the 10 less strikeouts in 10 more at-bats? The
increase of one home run and two RBI? 16 more walks and two more
doubles?
His 2006 season was pretty similar to his ‘07 season. It’s very odd
that Schmidt had such a dramatic change in opinion… unless… Schmidt has
been using Sabermetrics! Nah, probably not, especially given this:
That’s not a typo. Mike Schmidt, the best third baseman in baseball
history, is excited about Pedro Feliz, who is about as mediocre as
mediocre gets. It’s almost too ironic, even for blogs.
He’s an impressive young man. Tremendously
impressive hands, good arm, good batting stroke. I think he’s going to
be a big key for the club this year.
[…]
I know since I left [after the 1989 season], [third base] has
been a little bit of a sore point in Philadelphia. David Bell was
pretty good for a while, and of course, Scott Rolen was really good for
a while. But the last several years, third base has been one of those
platoon positions that a lot of really good teams don’t platoon at.
Just watching [Feliz] on TV, he caught my eye. I can see a good,
solid fundamental hitter. I don’t know what his best year has been. I
just know him as a mid-20s home run, 80-RBI guy. I don’t know if he’s
ever gotten to 30 home runs or 100 RBIs, but he has that potential,
without a doubt.
It’s always amazing when you realize that some of the greatest
players have such a hazy idea of what made them great. Schmidt, of
course, is correct in noticing his exceptional fielding skills (it’s
almost universally agreed upon that Feliz is the best-fielding third
baseman in baseball) and in saying that he has 30 HR, 100 RBI potential
(his career highs are 22 HR and 98 RBI). Given that he’s going from a
very pitcher-friendly ballpark to a very hitter-friendly ballpark, it
wouldn’t be outrageous to expect such a season from him.
However, none of the projection systems listed on FanGraphs has him having a great season in those offensive categories:
Bill James: 18 HR, 57 RBI
CHONE: 20 HR, 64 RBI
Marcel: 17 HR, 62 RBI
Schmidt errs in describing Feliz as having a “good batting stroke” and being “a good, solid fundamental hitter.”
There are just so many metrics that show Feliz as being just completely awful offensively…
Year: Feliz OBP/SLG — League Average OBP/SLG
2004: .305/.485 — .343/.439
2005: .295/.422 — .340/.430
2006: .281/.428 — .343/.442
2007: .290/.418 — .342/.436
2004-07 Batting and Fielding Runs Above Average (BRAA and FRAA)
2004: 2 BRAA; 0 FRAA
2005: -10 BRAA; -1 FRAA
2006: -16 BRAA; 9 FRAA
2007: -14 BRAA; 14 FRAA
Total: -38 BRAA; 22 FRAA
As for what you’d use to define a “good, solid fundamental hitter,” let’s use Old Traditional: batting average and strikeouts.
Since he started playing regularly (2004), Feliz has had 2,232
at-bats. In those at-bats, he’s logged 569 hits (.255 AVG) and 369
strikeouts (16.5% of AB’s are K’s). I wouldn’t exactly call Feliz a
“good, solid fundamental hitter.”
And just for kicks, Schmidt said that David Bell “was pretty good
for a while.” If, by “for a while,” he means “in 2004,” then he’s
correct. Bell’s OPS+ during his tenure in Philly…
2003: 57 OPS+ in 297 AB
2004: 107 OPS+ in 533 AB
2005: 72 OPS+ in 557 AB
2006: 87 OPS+ in 324 AB before being traded to Milwaukee.
Schmitdty, you brought a lot of smiles to our hearts when you were
leading the Phillies to six playoff appearances (1976-78, ‘80-81, ‘83),
two World Series (’80 and ‘83), and one championship (’80),
simultaneously bronzing your own name in baseball history as the
greatest third baseman of all time… but stay away from wayward sports
journalists. Wouldn’t want anyone to get the wrong idea, like “Feliz is
actually a good offensive player.”
As the final seconds ticked off of the fourth quarter clock and the
New York Giants earned victory in Super Bowl XLII, those of us who are
more inclined towards baseball breathed a sigh of relief and marked
another X on the calendar: A week and a half until P’s and C’s report;
three weeks until exhibition games begin; seven weeks until the regular
season begins.
The Phillies, for the most part, look like an improved team. Brad
Lidge was acquired from the Houston Astros; Shane Victorino moved to
center field following the departure of Aaron Rowand; Geoff Jenkins was
signed to platoon with Jayson Werth in right field; Pedro Feliz was
given red pinstripes as a hopeful answer to the team’s third base woes.
Meanwhile, the Phillies watched the Marlins pawn off their two
franchise players, the Nationals sign and trade for no one important,
the Braves lose Andruw Jones to free agency and trade Edgar Renteria to
Detroit and replace them with weaker players. Oh, and the Mets traded
for the best pitcher in baseball. The Johan Santana deal aside,
everyone in the division either got weaker or stayed essentially in the
same place.
Jimmy Rollins, almost a year after declaring the Phillies “the team
to beat” in the NL East (and being proven correct on the last day of
the regular season), claimed his team would win 100 games in 2008.
As I counted last August, the Phillies’ bullpen was responsible for at blowing at least 19 games
between April and the end of August. Remember, this is a bullpen that
featured — not just had; featured — Antonio Alfonseca, Clay Condrey,
and Jose Mesa, among others, mostly due to the injuries to Closer #1
Tom Gordon, Closer #2 Brett Myers, and Ryan Madson.
Now, the Phillies feature a bona fide closer in Brad Lidge, a
now-serviceable set-up man in Tom Gordon, and a surprisingly deep
bullpen, now that Ryan Madson will once again be healthy, and the team
kept J.C. Romero, who was stunningly effective since he arrived in
Philadelphia in early June last season. The bullpen, barring injury,
doesn’t figure to be a problem for the Phillies in 2008.
As always, the Phillies feature one of baseball’s best offenses.
Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, and the pitchers aside, the Phillies
feature 20-25 HR potential at every position, and Ryan Howard, Pat
Burrell, and Chase Utley are three of baseball’s best at getting on
base. Obviously, scoring runs won’t be a problem for the Phillies,
either, but given that Pedro Feliz and his sub-.300 OBP will be playing
every day, expect a very slight regression in runs scored from ‘07.
However, preventing them appears to be a problem for the starting rotation once you get past Cole Hamels and Brett Myers.
Jamie Moyer is 45, put up a 5.01 ERA, and averaged his highest base
runners per inning rate since 2000. Age is less of a problem for a
pitcher of Moyer’s ilk, since he relies not on speed, but purely on
location and intellect. Either way, Moyer cannot be relied on anything
more than league-average production.
Kyle Kendrick put up an impressing rookie campaign for the Phillies
in which he revealed himself as a perfect fit for Citizens Bank Park
and the Phillies. In 2007, more than 47% of Kendrick’s batted balls
were of the ground ball variety, and in CBP, where the gusting winds
push would-be fly ball outs halfway up the stands in left field,
throwing ground balls creates a huge advantage for their Phillies and
their now-great infield defense. Given Kendrick’s age and lack of MLB
experience though, we can’t reliably predict a repeat.
Adam Eaton. Not much needs to be said about him other than that the
sooner the Phillies get rid of him and his awful pitching, the better.
Eaton might be the worst pitcher the Phillies have allowed to pitch 150
innings or more since Brandon Duckworth in 2002. The non-progressives
in the Phillies’ front office likely don’t realize this and will try to
justify paying him $24.5 million over three years by letting him take
the mound once every five games.
Depending on how Kendrick pans out, and how quick the Phillies are
to pull Eaton from the starting rotation, expect about average
production from the Phillies’ rotation. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers
will obviously be well above league-average but it won’t be enough to
offset the lackluster performances from the others. If the Phillies can
sign Kyle Lohse and bump Eaton from the rotation before the season even
starts, that would be such a boon.
Defensively, the Phillies are easily above-average. Pedro Feliz is
baseball’s best glove at third base, Chase Utley is a top-two defensive
second baseman, Victorino is a gazelle with a cannon in center field,
and Carlos Ruiz is one of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
Pat Burrell and Geoff Jenkins lack range but both have strong arms,
Jayson Werth has decent speed and a strong arm, and Jimmy Rollins
provides average to slightly above-average shortstop defense. The only
defensive curse on the Phillies is Ryan Howard at first base.
Overall, I expect the Phillies to have the National League’s best
offense and Major League Baseball’s third-best, behind the Yankees and
Tigers. Pitching-wise, overall, I expect a middle-of-the-pack
performance, perhaps 9th out of the 16 National League teams. The
starting rotation will rank about 10th or 11th and the bullpen will
rank about 4th or 5th.
My prediction (with the roster as it is presently)
Phillies 2008 RPG: 5.42 (878 runs).
Phillies 2008 RAPG: 4.61 (747 runs).
Phillies 2008 record: 91-71, second in NL East behind the 93-69 Mets.
Bonus: Cole Hamels finishes a very close #2 to Johan Santana in Cy Young voting.
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
