Dave Rouleau of Baseball Digest Daily
contacted me earlier today and expressed interest in having me write
for their web site, and I happily accepted. He’d like me to focus on
transaction analysis on the entire MLB with a daily article, and has a
very loose leash on me, which is nice.
How that affects Crashburn Alley remains to be seen. If possible,
I’d like to continue posting regularly here as well for my
Phillies-specific and potpourri posts.
When their website is back up and running, make sure to bookmark their website and my section on there as well.
I was planning to do a recap of every game but I realized that you
can basically get a recap on any major baseball website and I was just
burdening myself with unnecessary writing. I’ll just stick to the
analysis that I don’t see being done.
That said, posts may be cranked out at a slower rate for the time
being because I finally upgraded from Microsoft Office 2000 to 2007 and
now I can use Pitch F/X data in Excel. So, I’ll be trying to learn how
to correctly use and analyze that, and I’ll try to implement it into my
analysis when possible.
To anyone who does have expertise with Pitch F/X, I will be needing
any pointers I can get, so please drop some hints for me if you can (my
contact information is listed at the bottom of this page). I’m really interested in learning how to create graphs like the ones Mike Fast has in this article about Johnny Cueto’s first start. I’ve also read his tutorial on building a database
for Pitch F/X data, and while my mind went numb almost immediately, it
does sound like a cool idea, but I know very little about Perl and
MySQL, so that’s another call to any experts out there willing to lend
a few pointers.
But enough about me and my shortcomings (that’s your cue to offer a hug).
Kyle Lohse
Remember how I was whining about the Phillies preventing themselves from signing Kyle Lohse? Yeah, well, this happened:
April 1 vs. Colorado Rockies: 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K
April 6 vs. Washington Nationals: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Total: 12 IP, 0 R, 7 H, 4 BB (0.917 WHIP), 5 K
Yeah… and the St. Louis Cardinals signed him for one year at $4.25
million. Granted, he did face a Rockies lineup that has been struggling
all season and a Nationals offense that isn’t expected to be much
better than last year’s MLB-worst, but he’s pitched 12 innings without
surrendering a single run. That’s impressive.
I will give credit where credit is due, however, and that’s to Adam
Eaton. On April 5 in Cincinnati, Eaton held a decent Reds offense to
three runs in 7 and two-thirds innings. He had nearly a 2-to-1
strikes-to-balls ratio, but he still managed to walk four. It’s an
encouraging start from a pitcher almost everyone, myself included, gave
up on a long time ago. If the Phillies can just get league-average
production from Eaton, it’s a huge burden lifted off of the bullpen.
Pat Burrell
If the Phillies’ front office is thinking about letting Burrell walk
when the season is over, they’re crazy. He’s started the season hitting
3 HR and driving in 9 runs in the first seven games, posting an OPS of
1.476.
On Monday night’s Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravech said,
half-seriously, that people should be thinking about Burrell
potentially completing the Philadelphia-themed MVP trifecta, since most
people are predicting that if anyone is going to win it as a Phillie
this year, it will be Chase Utley.
Since the Baseball Writers Association of America doesn’t really
know how to factor in a player’s true defensive contributions, it is
actually a realistic thought to imagine Burrell being named the
National League MVP. Burrell is not at all fleet of foot, and as a
result, his defense is burdensome. If the BBWAA knew of any of the
metrics that display this fact in all its glory, there’s not a chance
in hell that Burrell wins the award outside of a 60 HR, 150 RBI season.
It will be a shame if Burrell is forced to sign elsewhere after the
season because he has indicated that he relishes playing in
Philadelphia, so he’d probably be willing to take a hometown discount.
If the Phillies do decide to lock him up for a few more years, they
know what they’ll be getting, as Burrell is as consistent as they come.
From 2005 to ‘07, his slugging percentage ranged from .502 to .504 and
his OBP ranged from .388 to .400; home runs from 29 to 32; doubles from
24 to 27, and all of this consistency comes while losing at-bats in ‘06
and ‘07 from Charlie Manuel taking him out after the sixth or seventh
inning in a lot of games.
For me, though, the most satisfying statistic of his from 2007 is his 114 walks in just 598 plate appearances.
Jayson Werth vs. Geoff Jenkins
So far, Charlie Manuel has used the right field platoon as intended:
Werth against left-handed starters, Jenkins against right-handers.
However, Werth only has five at-bats in the Phillies’ first seven
games. Granted, the Phillies have only faced one left-handed starter,
and that was on Opening Day (Matt Chico of the Nationals), but you
can’t just hold Werth for the lefty starter — you have to start him
against a right-hander every now and then as well.
Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and doesn’t appear to be getting any
better, unsurprisingly. He’s been above-average over his career (115
OPS+) but in ‘06 and ‘07, he was just league average (101 OPS+ in both
seasons). Definitely use Jenkins against right-handers only, but let
him sit out one every now and then in favor of Werth.
In 19 at-bats, Feliz has put up an uninspiring 22 OPS+ for the
Phillies. That is not a misprint; that is a real, live, correctly
calculated 22 OPS+. He has four hits — all of them singles — and one
walk. There’s just nothing to say here. I know it’s early in the
season, small sample sizes and all that good stuff, but… a 22 OPS+?
Come on.
What we didn’t see coming is that he’d be a bottom-feeder defensively. Baseball’s best-fielding third baseman has sunk to the 12th out of 16
qualified NL third-sackers in Revised Zone Rating. It won’t stay that
way forever, and I fully expect Feliz to climb his way back up, but it
just illustrates how little value Feliz has to the Phillies right now.
He’s worse than a black hole.
Myers suspects he may have tipping his pitches, a problem he licked early in his career — which doesn’t mean it can’t re-occur.
[…]
“There were a few pitches that I had to question whether I was
tipping or not,” said Myers, who added that he didn’t notice anything
after looking at the game video. “They had good approaches. I’m not
saying I was [tipping pitches]. I’m just saying they had good
approaches.”
From the dugout, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel saw a pitcher
whose fastball velocity appeared lower than normal. Myers normally
throws in the 92-95 mph range. On Sunday, he reached 92 once, and
mostly stayed in the 88-91-mph range.
Myers is way too important to the Phillies to have any extended
stretch of bad pitching. Let’s hope he figures it out when he starts
against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Three-Game Set at Shea
The Phillies begin a three-game series in Queens bright and early: a 1:10 EST start. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Tues. 4/8, 1:10 PM EST: Jamie Moyer vs. Oliver Perez
Wed. 4/9, 7:10 PM EST: Kyle Kendrick vs. Mike Pelfrey
Thurs. 4/10, 7:10 PM EST: Adam Eaton vs. John Maine
The first thing you should notice about the match-ups is that the Phillies get to miss Johan Santana, as expected.
Second, Adam Eaton starts a game at Shea Stadium, and that has boded well for him. His starts at Shea last season:
April 11: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K
June 6: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
September 16: 4.2 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K
That last start aside, he was great in Queens last season. Over his
career, Eaton has a 2.81 ERA in the Mets’ home ballpark and just over a
1.0 WHIP in 32 innings.
Yeah, you read that right: the Phillies’ bullpen shined
in a victory over the Reds! Starter Kyle Kendrick looked pedestrian,
but was able to get out of some jams and limit the Reds to four runs.
Afterward, the Phillies’ bullpen pitched four scoreless innings,
allowing only one hit, no walks, and striking out three.
The
game was originally slated for a 7:10 start, but was delayed more than
an hour and a half due to rain (those of us in the Philly area were
treated to some videos reliving the 1980 season). Nevertheless, the
Phillies’ offense was on, as Chase Utley hit two home runs and drove in
three runs, and Pat Burrell hit a first-inning two-run homer as well.
Kendrick allowed eight hits — three of which were doubles — and
walked two in five innings. He did start the sixth inning, but walked
lead-off hitter Edwin Encarnacion.
The second-most surprising element of the game, after the Phillies’
great bullpen performance, was that Pedro Feliz drew a walk! Even
better is that he started the at-bat taking two strikes.
Ryan Howard isn’t looking particularly good so far this season, but
there are 158 more games to play. He’s yet to get an extra base hit.
Aside from that, it was a relatively easy victory for the Phils, and
it went almost according to plan. Manager Charlie Manuel would have
preferred if Kendrick could have notched six innings instead of five,
but Ryan Madson made up for it with two scoreless innings of relief.
Both Tom Gordon and Chad Durbin were unavailable. Gordon has pitched in
two out of the Phillies’ three prior games; Durbin had pitched in all
three.
Tomorrow afternoon, Adam Eaton faces Aaron Harang for a 1:10 meeting.
For one thing, the two sides haven't spent 10 seconds
talking about a deal since the arbitration hearing. For another, Howard
and agent Casey Close continue to position him as an unprecedented
player, who therefore deserves an unprecedented contract.
It shouldn't be surprising that Howard is going to ask for so much
money. He's been a premier offensive threat in all of baseball since he
won the NL MVP in 2005. However, if Stark's description of Howard's
desires -- "an unprecented contract" -- are true, then it really is
time to start thinking about moving him. Not this year, and not next
year, but perhaps at the trading deadline in 2010.
The Phillies have control of Howard until after the 2011 season, so
they can choose to continue to go year-to-year with him and pay him
according to precedents. Even if the Phillies are forced to pay him
something like $18 million in 2010, this would still be reasonable as
opposed to locking up the slugger -- who will be 30 at the start of the
2010 season -- long-term for "unprecedented" big bucks.
Howard isn't truly an unprecedented player. He's a power-hitting
first baseman with below-average defense, a weight issue that will
always have a chance of recurring with a build like Howard's, and
inconsistent mechanics (compared to 2005 and '06, he didn't use left
field nearly as much in '07, for instance).
He does have great upside, but he's not some legendary player. He'll
hit 45+ HR and drive in 125+ easily, put up a 1.000-ish OPS year in and
year out, and draw about 70 unintentional walks every season. Players
that productive are not a dime a dozen, but also not productive enough
to warrant an "unprecedented contract."
The Phillies should let some other team burden themselves with such
a contract. Sell Howard while he's still valued high. Keep him through
his prime years (late 20's) and dispatch of him and his burdensome
salary demands immediately afterward. Without a stroke of genius and/or
luck, they will not replace his production but they can make some
creative moves (like moving Chase Utley to first base and calling up Adrian Cardenas to play second base).
Should the Phils trade Howard, they could ask for a king's ransom
and likely get it. I'm talking comparable to, or even better than what the Twins got for Johan Santana.
If the trade is done right, the Phillies can set up their Minor League
system for years to come while still keeping a highly competitive MLB
roster. However, the problem is that when it comes to trading star
players, the Phillies always botch it:
July 26, 2000: Curt Schilling is traded by the Philadelphia
Phillies to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa,
Travis Lee, and Vicente Padilla.
July 29, 2002: Scott Rolen is traded by the Philadelphia
Phillies with Doug Nickle and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for
Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith.
July 30, 2006: Bobby Abreu is traded by the Philadelphia
Phillies with Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J.
Henry, Carlos Monasterios, and Jesus Sanchez.
In the Schilling deal, the Phillies got 1.5 league-average seasons
from Daal, a half-season of slightly above league-average pitching from
Figueroa, and 2.5 below-average seasons from Lee. Padilla is the only
player in the deal that both stayed with the Phillies long enough to
make it worthwhile, and be productive as well.
With the Rolen trade, Smith pitched less than 95 innings in three
and a half seasons for the Phillies' Minor League teams, and never made
it to the Majors due to injuries. Timlin gave the Phils a half-season
of league-average relief pitching. Polanco, as we all know, was a
decent second and third baseman in his two and a half seasons in Philly.
The Abreu deal is clearly the biggest bust of all, but it was more
of a salary dump than anything. None of the players acquired are likely
to ever help the Phillies at the Major League level. Matt Smith had
reconstructive surgery on his left elbow last season and it's unlikely
he'll be able to help the Phillies out again. He did perform very well
for the Phils in '06 after he was traded, but he pitched a grand total
of four Major League innings in '07. Henry is a huge bust of a
prospect. He's never been above the A level, but his OPS has gone from
.714 in '05 to .692 in '06 all the way to .560 last season.
Monasterios, a pitcher, and Sanchez, a catcher, aren't regarded very
highly and neither are likely to make the Majors.
With Pat Gillick retiring from his position as GM of the Phillies at
the end of the season, it becomes crucial that a capable mind is hired.
The likely choice will be Ruben Amaro, Jr., who has been a typical
yes-man who tows the party line. He's currently the Assistant GM to
Gillick, handling Q & A with the media about acquisitions,
injuries, and the like. There's no doubt that the Phillies' ownership
highly prefers Amaro over everyone else.
Mike Arbuckle is the Phillies' Assistant General Manager, Scouting and Player Development,
and is #2 on the totem pole behind Amaro for the soon-to-be vacant GM
job. Like Amaro, he's never been one to dance to a different drumbeat
and he's been loyal to the organization. Frankly, since he has so much
experience evaluating players, he'd be more reliable than Amaro to make
a trade of Ryan Howard.
Looking outside the box for a moment, Brian Cashman's contract is up after the '08 season.
When Ed Wade was fired after the '05 season, Cashman was one of the
candidates the Phillies had on their list before they decided to go
with Gillick, and he is no stranger to a big trade -- remember Alfonso
Soriano being sent to the Texas Rangers for Alex Rodriguez?
While the Phillies' upper management may be coming to the
realization that Howard's days in Philly are numbered, they can still
thoroughly research Gillick's potential successors and successfully set
themselves up for a franchise-defining trade in 2010.
Before the bottom of the sixth inning in the third game of the
season, the Phillies were pathetically averaging as many errors as
runs: 7 in two and a half games.
The
Phillies’ strengths last season — offense and defense — seemed to be
their 2008 Achilles’ Heel. Nothing was going right and all of the
bounces favored their opponents. Suddenly, in the bottom of the sixth
inning, batted balls that were being caught previously were finding
holes and dropping in front of fielders. They scored six runs in an
impressive rally that consisted of no extra-base hits; rather, eight
singles, a hit batter, and a wild pitch. Nine straight Phillies batters
reached base before Chase Utley hit into a 3-2-3 double play to end the
inning. A recap of the carnage:
C. Utley singled to right
R. Howard singled to right, C. Utley to second
P. Burrell singled to left, C. Utley scored, R. Howard to third
G. Jenkins singled to right, R. Howard scored, P. Burrell to second
P. Burrell to third, G. Jenkins to second on wild pitch
P. Feliz singled to center, G. Jenkins and P. Burrell scored
C. Coste singled to right, P. Feliz to second
G. Dobbs singled to left, P. Feliz scored, C. Coste to second
J. Rollins hit by pitch, C. Coste to third, G. Dobbs to second
S. Victorino singled to right center, C. Coste scored, G. Dobbs to third, J. Rollins to second
Heading into the top of the seventh with their first lead since the
bottom of the fourth inning on Monday’s Opening Day game, the Phillies
asked their bullpen to be efficient. Ryan Madson responded, quickly
retiring all three Washington Nationals hitters he faced.
They had a chance to pad their newfound lead when Ryan Howard
singled and Pat Burrell doubled to lead off the bottom of the seventh,
but the offense went back into hiding as Geoff Jenkins struck out, and
Pedro Feliz and Chris Coste grounded out. Unfortunately, the Phillies
had to ask their bullpen to hold onto a one-run lead, and as expected,
they couldn’t do that.
Ryan Madson returned to the mound to start the eighth inning and
promptly walked lead-off hitter Ronnie Belliard on four pitches. He got
Felipe Lopez to lazily fly out to center fielder Shane Victorino, and
Jesus Flores almost did as well, but the ball fell in the proverbial
Bermuda’s Triangle between Jimmy Rollins, Burrell’s replacement in left
field Jayson Werth, and Victorino.
With Rob Mackowiak, a left-handed pinch-hitter, announced, Charlie
Manuel replaced Madson with J.C. Romero. Nationals’ manager Manny Acta
countered by pinch-hitting Paul Lo Duca for Mackowiak. Romero appeared
wild, not having thrown a true strike for the first five pitches, but
Lo Duca helped him out by swinging 3-1 at what would have been ball
four. Following suit as the previous two hitters, Lo Duca also lazily
flied out to center, and the Phillies looked like they’d actually
escape with the lead. Not so.
Cristian Guzman sharply hit a grounder just out of the reach of
third baseman Pedro Feliz. Jimmy Rollins slid to try and keep the ball
near the infield to prevent the tying run from scoring, but the ball
instead deflected off of his glove towards foul territory, and that did
allow Belliard to touch home plate. Lastings Milledge followed with
another infield single to load the bases for the dreaded Ryan
Zimmerman, already with two game-winning HR to his name. Luckily, the
Phillies continued his oh-fer day, as he grounded out to Jimmy Rollins
to end the inning at 7 runs apiece.
The Phillies loaded the bases with two outs in the bottom of the
eighth but couldn’t push in the go-ahead run. Manuel elected to use
Opening Day victim Tom Gordon to hold the game in a tie in the top of
the ninth inning, and boy, does Gordon make it interesting. He started
off well, striking out Austin Kearns, but Nick Johnson, after a great
at-bat in which he started 0-2 and worked it to 3-2, reached base via a
line drive that was just barely out of the reach of Utley’s glove. The
next three at-bats went walk, fly out, walk, so the bases were loaded
with two outs. Pinch-hitter Willie Harris came out to bat for reliever
Luis Ayala, and everyone in the stadium held their breath as Ryan
Howard cleanly fielded a grounder and flipped it to Gordon to end the
inning, the game still tied at 7-all. Gordon had a scoreless inning!
His ERA went down more than 100 points, from 135.00 to 33.75!
To mimic Seinfeld, yada yada yada, Phillies waste a Jenkins lead-off double in the bottom of the ninth, yada yada yada, game goes to extra innings, yada yada yada,
Jimmy Rollins starts off the bottom of the tenth with a lead-off
infield single. Victorino sacrifice bunts Rollins to second and
Rollins, noticing that only shortstop Cristian Guzman would be able to
cover third, raced him to the bag and did so safely, giving the
Phillies a runner on third base with one out, and Chase Utley and Ryan
Howard due up. Acta, for the second time in the game, ordered both of
them to be walked, putting the pressure on Jayson Werth. Reliever Jesus
Colome couldn’t find the plate and walked in the winning run on four
pitches, giving the Phillies their first win of the season.
Kyle Kendrick will face Josh Fogg tomorrow night when the Phillies visit the Cincinnati Reds for a 7:10 start.
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
The
game was originally slated for a 7:10 start, but was delayed more than
an hour and a half due to rain (those of us in the Philly area were
treated to some videos reliving the 1980 season). Nevertheless, the
Phillies’ offense was on, as Chase Utley hit two home runs and drove in
three runs, and Pat Burrell hit a first-inning two-run homer as well.
The
Phillies’ strengths last season — offense and defense — seemed to be
their 2008 Achilles’ Heel. Nothing was going right and all of the
bounces favored their opponents. Suddenly, in the bottom of the sixth
inning, batted balls that were being caught previously were finding
holes and dropping in front of fielders. They scored six runs in an
impressive rally that consisted of no extra-base hits; rather, eight
singles, a hit batter, and a wild pitch. Nine straight Phillies batters
reached base before Chase Utley hit into a 3-2-3 double play to end the
inning. A recap of the carnage:
