I was planning to do a recap of every game but I realized that you
can basically get a recap on any major baseball website and I was just
burdening myself with unnecessary writing. I’ll just stick to the
analysis that I don’t see being done.
That said, posts may be cranked out at a slower rate for the time
being because I finally upgraded from Microsoft Office 2000 to 2007 and
now I can use Pitch F/X data in Excel. So, I’ll be trying to learn how
to correctly use and analyze that, and I’ll try to implement it into my
analysis when possible.
To anyone who does have expertise with Pitch F/X, I will be needing
any pointers I can get, so please drop some hints for me if you can (my
contact information is listed at the bottom of this page). I’m really interested in learning how to create graphs like the ones Mike Fast has in this article about Johnny Cueto’s first start. I’ve also read his tutorial on building a database
for Pitch F/X data, and while my mind went numb almost immediately, it
does sound like a cool idea, but I know very little about Perl and
MySQL, so that’s another call to any experts out there willing to lend
a few pointers.
But enough about me and my shortcomings (that’s your cue to offer a hug).
Kyle Lohse
Remember how I was whining about the Phillies preventing themselves from signing Kyle Lohse? Yeah, well, this happened:
April 1 vs. Colorado Rockies: 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K
April 6 vs. Washington Nationals: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Total: 12 IP, 0 R, 7 H, 4 BB (0.917 WHIP), 5 K
Yeah… and the St. Louis Cardinals signed him for one year at $4.25
million. Granted, he did face a Rockies lineup that has been struggling
all season and a Nationals offense that isn’t expected to be much
better than last year’s MLB-worst, but he’s pitched 12 innings without
surrendering a single run. That’s impressive.
I will give credit where credit is due, however, and that’s to Adam
Eaton. On April 5 in Cincinnati, Eaton held a decent Reds offense to
three runs in 7 and two-thirds innings. He had nearly a 2-to-1
strikes-to-balls ratio, but he still managed to walk four. It’s an
encouraging start from a pitcher almost everyone, myself included, gave
up on a long time ago. If the Phillies can just get league-average
production from Eaton, it’s a huge burden lifted off of the bullpen.
Pat Burrell
If the Phillies’ front office is thinking about letting Burrell walk
when the season is over, they’re crazy. He’s started the season hitting
3 HR and driving in 9 runs in the first seven games, posting an OPS of
1.476.
On Monday night’s Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravech said,
half-seriously, that people should be thinking about Burrell
potentially completing the Philadelphia-themed MVP trifecta, since most
people are predicting that if anyone is going to win it as a Phillie
this year, it will be Chase Utley.
Since the Baseball Writers Association of America doesn’t really
know how to factor in a player’s true defensive contributions, it is
actually a realistic thought to imagine Burrell being named the
National League MVP. Burrell is not at all fleet of foot, and as a
result, his defense is burdensome. If the BBWAA knew of any of the
metrics that display this fact in all its glory, there’s not a chance
in hell that Burrell wins the award outside of a 60 HR, 150 RBI season.
It will be a shame if Burrell is forced to sign elsewhere after the
season because he has indicated that he relishes playing in
Philadelphia, so he’d probably be willing to take a hometown discount.
If the Phillies do decide to lock him up for a few more years, they
know what they’ll be getting, as Burrell is as consistent as they come.
From 2005 to ‘07, his slugging percentage ranged from .502 to .504 and
his OBP ranged from .388 to .400; home runs from 29 to 32; doubles from
24 to 27, and all of this consistency comes while losing at-bats in ‘06
and ‘07 from Charlie Manuel taking him out after the sixth or seventh
inning in a lot of games.
For me, though, the most satisfying statistic of his from 2007 is his 114 walks in just 598 plate appearances.
Jayson Werth vs. Geoff Jenkins
So far, Charlie Manuel has used the right field platoon as intended:
Werth against left-handed starters, Jenkins against right-handers.
However, Werth only has five at-bats in the Phillies’ first seven
games. Granted, the Phillies have only faced one left-handed starter,
and that was on Opening Day (Matt Chico of the Nationals), but you
can’t just hold Werth for the lefty starter — you have to start him
against a right-hander every now and then as well.
Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and doesn’t appear to be getting any
better, unsurprisingly. He’s been above-average over his career (115
OPS+) but in ‘06 and ‘07, he was just league average (101 OPS+ in both
seasons). Definitely use Jenkins against right-handers only, but let
him sit out one every now and then in favor of Werth.
In 19 at-bats, Feliz has put up an uninspiring 22 OPS+ for the
Phillies. That is not a misprint; that is a real, live, correctly
calculated 22 OPS+. He has four hits — all of them singles — and one
walk. There’s just nothing to say here. I know it’s early in the
season, small sample sizes and all that good stuff, but… a 22 OPS+?
Come on.
What we didn’t see coming is that he’d be a bottom-feeder defensively. Baseball’s best-fielding third baseman has sunk to the 12th out of 16
qualified NL third-sackers in Revised Zone Rating. It won’t stay that
way forever, and I fully expect Feliz to climb his way back up, but it
just illustrates how little value Feliz has to the Phillies right now.
He’s worse than a black hole.
Myers suspects he may have tipping his pitches, a problem he licked early in his career — which doesn’t mean it can’t re-occur.
[…]
“There were a few pitches that I had to question whether I was
tipping or not,” said Myers, who added that he didn’t notice anything
after looking at the game video. “They had good approaches. I’m not
saying I was [tipping pitches]. I’m just saying they had good
approaches.”
From the dugout, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel saw a pitcher
whose fastball velocity appeared lower than normal. Myers normally
throws in the 92-95 mph range. On Sunday, he reached 92 once, and
mostly stayed in the 88-91-mph range.
Myers is way too important to the Phillies to have any extended
stretch of bad pitching. Let’s hope he figures it out when he starts
against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Three-Game Set at Shea
The Phillies begin a three-game series in Queens bright and early: a 1:10 EST start. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Tues. 4/8, 1:10 PM EST: Jamie Moyer vs. Oliver Perez
Wed. 4/9, 7:10 PM EST: Kyle Kendrick vs. Mike Pelfrey
Thurs. 4/10, 7:10 PM EST: Adam Eaton vs. John Maine
The first thing you should notice about the match-ups is that the Phillies get to miss Johan Santana, as expected.
Second, Adam Eaton starts a game at Shea Stadium, and that has boded well for him. His starts at Shea last season:
April 11: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K
June 6: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
September 16: 4.2 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K
That last start aside, he was great in Queens last season. Over his
career, Eaton has a 2.81 ERA in the Mets’ home ballpark and just over a
1.0 WHIP in 32 innings.
The rest have joined pitchers and catchers for some spring training
fun in the sun, and you know what that means: it’s time for Mike
Schmidt to open his mouth again!
If these guys cut their strikeouts down to 75 or 80,
they put the ball in play 85 or 90 more times a year. That’s at least
15 more home runs and at least 35 more RBIs. If only they had choked up
with two strikes, spread their stances out. What they are doing now is
not great, it is mediocrity.
Let’s just say that Schmidt has changed his stance on Burrell. On
Comcast SportsNet, he thinks Burrell will be the next Phillies MVP. And
given that this is Burrell’s last season before free agency, we can
safely assume he’s talking about 2008. What sparked the change of heart
for Schmidt?
Could it have been the 10 less strikeouts in 10 more at-bats? The
increase of one home run and two RBI? 16 more walks and two more
doubles?
His 2006 season was pretty similar to his ‘07 season. It’s very odd
that Schmidt had such a dramatic change in opinion… unless… Schmidt has
been using Sabermetrics! Nah, probably not, especially given this:
That’s not a typo. Mike Schmidt, the best third baseman in baseball
history, is excited about Pedro Feliz, who is about as mediocre as
mediocre gets. It’s almost too ironic, even for blogs.
He’s an impressive young man. Tremendously
impressive hands, good arm, good batting stroke. I think he’s going to
be a big key for the club this year.
[…]
I know since I left [after the 1989 season], [third base] has
been a little bit of a sore point in Philadelphia. David Bell was
pretty good for a while, and of course, Scott Rolen was really good for
a while. But the last several years, third base has been one of those
platoon positions that a lot of really good teams don’t platoon at.
Just watching [Feliz] on TV, he caught my eye. I can see a good,
solid fundamental hitter. I don’t know what his best year has been. I
just know him as a mid-20s home run, 80-RBI guy. I don’t know if he’s
ever gotten to 30 home runs or 100 RBIs, but he has that potential,
without a doubt.
It’s always amazing when you realize that some of the greatest
players have such a hazy idea of what made them great. Schmidt, of
course, is correct in noticing his exceptional fielding skills (it’s
almost universally agreed upon that Feliz is the best-fielding third
baseman in baseball) and in saying that he has 30 HR, 100 RBI potential
(his career highs are 22 HR and 98 RBI). Given that he’s going from a
very pitcher-friendly ballpark to a very hitter-friendly ballpark, it
wouldn’t be outrageous to expect such a season from him.
However, none of the projection systems listed on FanGraphs has him having a great season in those offensive categories:
Bill James: 18 HR, 57 RBI
CHONE: 20 HR, 64 RBI
Marcel: 17 HR, 62 RBI
Schmidt errs in describing Feliz as having a “good batting stroke” and being “a good, solid fundamental hitter.”
There are just so many metrics that show Feliz as being just completely awful offensively…
Year: Feliz OBP/SLG — League Average OBP/SLG
2004: .305/.485 — .343/.439
2005: .295/.422 — .340/.430
2006: .281/.428 — .343/.442
2007: .290/.418 — .342/.436
2004-07 Batting and Fielding Runs Above Average (BRAA and FRAA)
2004: 2 BRAA; 0 FRAA
2005: -10 BRAA; -1 FRAA
2006: -16 BRAA; 9 FRAA
2007: -14 BRAA; 14 FRAA
Total: -38 BRAA; 22 FRAA
As for what you’d use to define a “good, solid fundamental hitter,” let’s use Old Traditional: batting average and strikeouts.
Since he started playing regularly (2004), Feliz has had 2,232
at-bats. In those at-bats, he’s logged 569 hits (.255 AVG) and 369
strikeouts (16.5% of AB’s are K’s). I wouldn’t exactly call Feliz a
“good, solid fundamental hitter.”
And just for kicks, Schmidt said that David Bell “was pretty good
for a while.” If, by “for a while,” he means “in 2004,” then he’s
correct. Bell’s OPS+ during his tenure in Philly…
2003: 57 OPS+ in 297 AB
2004: 107 OPS+ in 533 AB
2005: 72 OPS+ in 557 AB
2006: 87 OPS+ in 324 AB before being traded to Milwaukee.
Schmitdty, you brought a lot of smiles to our hearts when you were
leading the Phillies to six playoff appearances (1976-78, ‘80-81, ‘83),
two World Series (’80 and ‘83), and one championship (’80),
simultaneously bronzing your own name in baseball history as the
greatest third baseman of all time… but stay away from wayward sports
journalists. Wouldn’t want anyone to get the wrong idea, like “Feliz is
actually a good offensive player.”
Reasons why you would ever consider signing free agent third baseman Pedro Feliz:
You are a bottom-feeding organization like the Tampa Bay Rays or Kansas City Royals.
You have never looked at baseball statistics before.
You like your hitters reaching base in less than 30% of their plate appearances.
You are a vengeful GM and the fans have wronged you.
Feliz blackmailed you.
Yet, the Phillies, who have three third basemen (Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Eric Bruntlett) are close to signing Feliz to a two-year, $8.5 million deal:
An agreement is believed to be pending a physical, which
could happen sometime this week, though the Phillies would only confirm
that the sides are in discussions. The deal is reportedly for $8.5
million over two years with a team option for 2010 that could approach
$15 million, according to an Associated Press report.
Feliz has played seven full seasons of Major League Baseball, and in
none of them has he ever been close to the league average on-base
percentage (usually between .330 and .345). In fact, he’s only been
above .300 once in 2004 (.305).
Offensively, Feliz is a black hole. He ranked 31st on the San Francisco Giants in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) at -2.7.
So, we’ve established that Feliz is unattractive offensively and
attractive defensively. Depending on how much money the Phillies threw
at him, this signing could be one of those where you just shrug your
shoulders. Who knows, maybe Feliz will improve on his offense. After
all, he did play in the very pitcher-friendly A####mp;T Park, and
players, under the tutelage of manager/offensive guru Charlie Manuel
and hitting coach Milt Thompson, usually end up being more prone to
taking walks and set career highs in OBP. For instance:
Aaron Rowand: Career-high 32 walks before ’07’s total of 47 walk; career-high .361 OBP before ’07’s .374.
Rod Barajas: Career-high .306 OBP before ’07’s
.352. He was, however, helped by hitting mostly eighth in the line-up,
in front of the pitcher.
Jayson Werth: Career-high .338 OBP before ’07’s .404.
David Bell: Career-high .331 OBP before ’04’s .363.
Jason Michaels: .364 and .399 ‘04-05 OBP’s with the Phillies; .326 and .324 ‘06-07 OBP’s with the Indians.
Don’t forget that the Phillies have also had four of the best
on-base players in the game in Chase Utley (.410 OBP in ‘07), Ryan
Howard (.392), Pat Burrell (.400), and Bobby Abreu (.408 career OBP).
Feliz will likely fill in as the #7 hitter, ahead of the catcher
(Carlos Ruiz or Chris Coste) and the pitcher, so the impact of his lack
of offense will be dulled a bit. Either way, it’s a questionable
signing at best and rather unnecessary.
Tropical Storm Barry made its way up the East Coast, bringing a steady light rain to Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park on Shane Victorino Hula Figurine day. The temperature was hovering just under 90 degrees and it was evident by the way the balls were flying over the outfield fences. Yesterday's game featured 6 homeruns: two from the Giants, four from the Phillies, including, deservedly, Shane Victorino's opposite field walk-off homerun that broke an 8-8 tie in the bottom of the ninth inning.
Victorino said after the game that it was only the second opposite-field homerun he had ever hit at any level. And to his credit, it didn't just barely go over the fence -- it went a good three or four rows back between the W.B. Mason and Bud Light advertisements on the left field wall. Don't tell that to Kevin Correia -- off of whom Victorino hit his homerun -- though, he thinks that Shane's shot was a gift from Citizens Bank Park. When asked if the homerun would have left any other ballpark, Correia snapped, "You name me one other one."
According to HitTrackerOnline.com, Victorino's game-winner was neither "Lucky" or "Just Enough" (see bottom for definitions).
Even more interesting is that if the information on HitTrackerOnline.com is sorted by HR hit by the Giants against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, one finds that, of the 6 homeruns the Giants have hit in the first three games of the series, four of them are "Just Enough" (Lewis, Feliz, Winn, Durham) and two of those four are "Lucky" (Durham, Lewis). Lewis' homerun accounted for four runs (a grand slam, obviously), Feliz and Durham accounted for three, and Winn's "Just Enough" homerun led off the first inning yesterday. The Giants "gift" homeruns accounted for 11 of the 23 runs they have scored in the series thus far. Kevin Correia has no room to whine about a wall-scraping homerun.
This is not to say that the Phillies' stadium is a pitcher's ballpark -- it's not, as evidenced by its 11th-highest 1.029 Park Factor in runs (over 1.000 favors hitters). The ballpark does feature some homerun deterrents, as well. For instance, the fence on top of the left-field wall make it necessary for a ball to be hit at least 10'6" high to reach the seats. Otherwise, it will bounce back in play. And, believe it or not, this fence has come into play on several occaisions. On May 17, the Phillies attempted to mount yet another comeback against the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen. With one out in the bottom of the ninth inning and his team trailing 3-2, Pat Burrell scorched closer Francisco Cordero's pitch down the left field line, but it hit the fence above the wall and bounced back into play, and Burrell only had a double to show for it. He was stranded and the Phillies lost.
The angled wall in left-centerfield (labeled by the Lukoil sign) tends to take homeruns away and turns them into triples (in rare cases, an inside-the-park-homerun), as a result of the odd caroms. The depth of "The Angle" goes from 409' to 381' to 385' and its height ranges from 19' to 12'8 going from right to left. Center field to right field is fairly standard: 401' to straightaway center, 398' just to the right (the bullpen entrance), 369' in the right-field power alley, and 330' down the right-field line.
With all that being said, Citizens Bank Park seems rather reasonable, doesn't it? While 401' to center is relatively shallow, no one complains about Dodger Stadium's 395' centerfield fence. Or what about Fenway Park's 302'-deep, 3-5'-high right-field fence? Or Minute Maid Park's 315'-deep, 19'-high left-field fence?
Instead of blaming the ballpark for his failure, Kevin Correia should just give credit where credit is due: Shane Victorino put a great swing on his pitch. If the 5'9", 180-pound can hit it 350 feet into the seats, perhaps the pitch wasn't all that great, no?
Note: HitTrackerOnline has three categories for homeruns: Just Enough, No Doubt, and Plenty.
Just Enough: "...the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence."
No Doubt: "...the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence."
Visit my new website -- Crashburn Alley!>
Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
