I was planning to do a recap of every game but I realized that you
can basically get a recap on any major baseball website and I was just
burdening myself with unnecessary writing. I’ll just stick to the
analysis that I don’t see being done.
That said, posts may be cranked out at a slower rate for the time
being because I finally upgraded from Microsoft Office 2000 to 2007 and
now I can use Pitch F/X data in Excel. So, I’ll be trying to learn how
to correctly use and analyze that, and I’ll try to implement it into my
analysis when possible.
To anyone who does have expertise with Pitch F/X, I will be needing
any pointers I can get, so please drop some hints for me if you can (my
contact information is listed at the bottom of this page). I’m really interested in learning how to create graphs like the ones Mike Fast has in this article about Johnny Cueto’s first start. I’ve also read his tutorial on building a database
for Pitch F/X data, and while my mind went numb almost immediately, it
does sound like a cool idea, but I know very little about Perl and
MySQL, so that’s another call to any experts out there willing to lend
a few pointers.
But enough about me and my shortcomings (that’s your cue to offer a hug).
Kyle Lohse
Remember how I was whining about the Phillies preventing themselves from signing Kyle Lohse? Yeah, well, this happened:
April 1 vs. Colorado Rockies: 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K
April 6 vs. Washington Nationals: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Total: 12 IP, 0 R, 7 H, 4 BB (0.917 WHIP), 5 K
Yeah… and the St. Louis Cardinals signed him for one year at $4.25
million. Granted, he did face a Rockies lineup that has been struggling
all season and a Nationals offense that isn’t expected to be much
better than last year’s MLB-worst, but he’s pitched 12 innings without
surrendering a single run. That’s impressive.
I will give credit where credit is due, however, and that’s to Adam
Eaton. On April 5 in Cincinnati, Eaton held a decent Reds offense to
three runs in 7 and two-thirds innings. He had nearly a 2-to-1
strikes-to-balls ratio, but he still managed to walk four. It’s an
encouraging start from a pitcher almost everyone, myself included, gave
up on a long time ago. If the Phillies can just get league-average
production from Eaton, it’s a huge burden lifted off of the bullpen.
Pat Burrell
If the Phillies’ front office is thinking about letting Burrell walk
when the season is over, they’re crazy. He’s started the season hitting
3 HR and driving in 9 runs in the first seven games, posting an OPS of
1.476.
On Monday night’s Baseball Tonight, Karl Ravech said,
half-seriously, that people should be thinking about Burrell
potentially completing the Philadelphia-themed MVP trifecta, since most
people are predicting that if anyone is going to win it as a Phillie
this year, it will be Chase Utley.
Since the Baseball Writers Association of America doesn’t really
know how to factor in a player’s true defensive contributions, it is
actually a realistic thought to imagine Burrell being named the
National League MVP. Burrell is not at all fleet of foot, and as a
result, his defense is burdensome. If the BBWAA knew of any of the
metrics that display this fact in all its glory, there’s not a chance
in hell that Burrell wins the award outside of a 60 HR, 150 RBI season.
It will be a shame if Burrell is forced to sign elsewhere after the
season because he has indicated that he relishes playing in
Philadelphia, so he’d probably be willing to take a hometown discount.
If the Phillies do decide to lock him up for a few more years, they
know what they’ll be getting, as Burrell is as consistent as they come.
From 2005 to ‘07, his slugging percentage ranged from .502 to .504 and
his OBP ranged from .388 to .400; home runs from 29 to 32; doubles from
24 to 27, and all of this consistency comes while losing at-bats in ‘06
and ‘07 from Charlie Manuel taking him out after the sixth or seventh
inning in a lot of games.
For me, though, the most satisfying statistic of his from 2007 is his 114 walks in just 598 plate appearances.
Jayson Werth vs. Geoff Jenkins
So far, Charlie Manuel has used the right field platoon as intended:
Werth against left-handed starters, Jenkins against right-handers.
However, Werth only has five at-bats in the Phillies’ first seven
games. Granted, the Phillies have only faced one left-handed starter,
and that was on Opening Day (Matt Chico of the Nationals), but you
can’t just hold Werth for the lefty starter — you have to start him
against a right-hander every now and then as well.
Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and doesn’t appear to be getting any
better, unsurprisingly. He’s been above-average over his career (115
OPS+) but in ‘06 and ‘07, he was just league average (101 OPS+ in both
seasons). Definitely use Jenkins against right-handers only, but let
him sit out one every now and then in favor of Werth.
In 19 at-bats, Feliz has put up an uninspiring 22 OPS+ for the
Phillies. That is not a misprint; that is a real, live, correctly
calculated 22 OPS+. He has four hits — all of them singles — and one
walk. There’s just nothing to say here. I know it’s early in the
season, small sample sizes and all that good stuff, but… a 22 OPS+?
Come on.
What we didn’t see coming is that he’d be a bottom-feeder defensively. Baseball’s best-fielding third baseman has sunk to the 12th out of 16
qualified NL third-sackers in Revised Zone Rating. It won’t stay that
way forever, and I fully expect Feliz to climb his way back up, but it
just illustrates how little value Feliz has to the Phillies right now.
He’s worse than a black hole.
Myers suspects he may have tipping his pitches, a problem he licked early in his career — which doesn’t mean it can’t re-occur.
[…]
“There were a few pitches that I had to question whether I was
tipping or not,” said Myers, who added that he didn’t notice anything
after looking at the game video. “They had good approaches. I’m not
saying I was [tipping pitches]. I’m just saying they had good
approaches.”
From the dugout, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel saw a pitcher
whose fastball velocity appeared lower than normal. Myers normally
throws in the 92-95 mph range. On Sunday, he reached 92 once, and
mostly stayed in the 88-91-mph range.
Myers is way too important to the Phillies to have any extended
stretch of bad pitching. Let’s hope he figures it out when he starts
against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Three-Game Set at Shea
The Phillies begin a three-game series in Queens bright and early: a 1:10 EST start. Here are the pitching match-ups:
Tues. 4/8, 1:10 PM EST: Jamie Moyer vs. Oliver Perez
Wed. 4/9, 7:10 PM EST: Kyle Kendrick vs. Mike Pelfrey
Thurs. 4/10, 7:10 PM EST: Adam Eaton vs. John Maine
The first thing you should notice about the match-ups is that the Phillies get to miss Johan Santana, as expected.
Second, Adam Eaton starts a game at Shea Stadium, and that has boded well for him. His starts at Shea last season:
April 11: 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K
June 6: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
September 16: 4.2 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 1 K
That last start aside, he was great in Queens last season. Over his
career, Eaton has a 2.81 ERA in the Mets’ home ballpark and just over a
1.0 WHIP in 32 innings.
Yeah, you read that right: the Phillies’ bullpen shined
in a victory over the Reds! Starter Kyle Kendrick looked pedestrian,
but was able to get out of some jams and limit the Reds to four runs.
Afterward, the Phillies’ bullpen pitched four scoreless innings,
allowing only one hit, no walks, and striking out three.
The
game was originally slated for a 7:10 start, but was delayed more than
an hour and a half due to rain (those of us in the Philly area were
treated to some videos reliving the 1980 season). Nevertheless, the
Phillies’ offense was on, as Chase Utley hit two home runs and drove in
three runs, and Pat Burrell hit a first-inning two-run homer as well.
Kendrick allowed eight hits — three of which were doubles — and
walked two in five innings. He did start the sixth inning, but walked
lead-off hitter Edwin Encarnacion.
The second-most surprising element of the game, after the Phillies’
great bullpen performance, was that Pedro Feliz drew a walk! Even
better is that he started the at-bat taking two strikes.
Ryan Howard isn’t looking particularly good so far this season, but
there are 158 more games to play. He’s yet to get an extra base hit.
Aside from that, it was a relatively easy victory for the Phils, and
it went almost according to plan. Manager Charlie Manuel would have
preferred if Kendrick could have notched six innings instead of five,
but Ryan Madson made up for it with two scoreless innings of relief.
Both Tom Gordon and Chad Durbin were unavailable. Gordon has pitched in
two out of the Phillies’ three prior games; Durbin had pitched in all
three.
Tomorrow afternoon, Adam Eaton faces Aaron Harang for a 1:10 meeting.
The rest have joined pitchers and catchers for some spring training
fun in the sun, and you know what that means: it’s time for Mike
Schmidt to open his mouth again!
If these guys cut their strikeouts down to 75 or 80,
they put the ball in play 85 or 90 more times a year. That’s at least
15 more home runs and at least 35 more RBIs. If only they had choked up
with two strikes, spread their stances out. What they are doing now is
not great, it is mediocrity.
Let’s just say that Schmidt has changed his stance on Burrell. On
Comcast SportsNet, he thinks Burrell will be the next Phillies MVP. And
given that this is Burrell’s last season before free agency, we can
safely assume he’s talking about 2008. What sparked the change of heart
for Schmidt?
Could it have been the 10 less strikeouts in 10 more at-bats? The
increase of one home run and two RBI? 16 more walks and two more
doubles?
His 2006 season was pretty similar to his ‘07 season. It’s very odd
that Schmidt had such a dramatic change in opinion… unless… Schmidt has
been using Sabermetrics! Nah, probably not, especially given this:
That’s not a typo. Mike Schmidt, the best third baseman in baseball
history, is excited about Pedro Feliz, who is about as mediocre as
mediocre gets. It’s almost too ironic, even for blogs.
He’s an impressive young man. Tremendously
impressive hands, good arm, good batting stroke. I think he’s going to
be a big key for the club this year.
[…]
I know since I left [after the 1989 season], [third base] has
been a little bit of a sore point in Philadelphia. David Bell was
pretty good for a while, and of course, Scott Rolen was really good for
a while. But the last several years, third base has been one of those
platoon positions that a lot of really good teams don’t platoon at.
Just watching [Feliz] on TV, he caught my eye. I can see a good,
solid fundamental hitter. I don’t know what his best year has been. I
just know him as a mid-20s home run, 80-RBI guy. I don’t know if he’s
ever gotten to 30 home runs or 100 RBIs, but he has that potential,
without a doubt.
It’s always amazing when you realize that some of the greatest
players have such a hazy idea of what made them great. Schmidt, of
course, is correct in noticing his exceptional fielding skills (it’s
almost universally agreed upon that Feliz is the best-fielding third
baseman in baseball) and in saying that he has 30 HR, 100 RBI potential
(his career highs are 22 HR and 98 RBI). Given that he’s going from a
very pitcher-friendly ballpark to a very hitter-friendly ballpark, it
wouldn’t be outrageous to expect such a season from him.
However, none of the projection systems listed on FanGraphs has him having a great season in those offensive categories:
Bill James: 18 HR, 57 RBI
CHONE: 20 HR, 64 RBI
Marcel: 17 HR, 62 RBI
Schmidt errs in describing Feliz as having a “good batting stroke” and being “a good, solid fundamental hitter.”
There are just so many metrics that show Feliz as being just completely awful offensively…
Year: Feliz OBP/SLG — League Average OBP/SLG
2004: .305/.485 — .343/.439
2005: .295/.422 — .340/.430
2006: .281/.428 — .343/.442
2007: .290/.418 — .342/.436
2004-07 Batting and Fielding Runs Above Average (BRAA and FRAA)
2004: 2 BRAA; 0 FRAA
2005: -10 BRAA; -1 FRAA
2006: -16 BRAA; 9 FRAA
2007: -14 BRAA; 14 FRAA
Total: -38 BRAA; 22 FRAA
As for what you’d use to define a “good, solid fundamental hitter,” let’s use Old Traditional: batting average and strikeouts.
Since he started playing regularly (2004), Feliz has had 2,232
at-bats. In those at-bats, he’s logged 569 hits (.255 AVG) and 369
strikeouts (16.5% of AB’s are K’s). I wouldn’t exactly call Feliz a
“good, solid fundamental hitter.”
And just for kicks, Schmidt said that David Bell “was pretty good
for a while.” If, by “for a while,” he means “in 2004,” then he’s
correct. Bell’s OPS+ during his tenure in Philly…
2003: 57 OPS+ in 297 AB
2004: 107 OPS+ in 533 AB
2005: 72 OPS+ in 557 AB
2006: 87 OPS+ in 324 AB before being traded to Milwaukee.
Schmitdty, you brought a lot of smiles to our hearts when you were
leading the Phillies to six playoff appearances (1976-78, ‘80-81, ‘83),
two World Series (’80 and ‘83), and one championship (’80),
simultaneously bronzing your own name in baseball history as the
greatest third baseman of all time… but stay away from wayward sports
journalists. Wouldn’t want anyone to get the wrong idea, like “Feliz is
actually a good offensive player.”
After the Phillies’ workout on Saturday, Ruben
Amaro Jr. summoned Kendrick into manager Charlie Manuel’s office at
Bright House Networks Field. With a straight face, the assistant
general manager told his gullible pitcher that he’d been dealt to the
Yomiuri Giants of the Japanese Central League for a player named
“Kobayashi Iwamura.”
Presented with a letter printed on Phillies stationery with
official-sounding language, Kendrick was convinced of the “deal,” and
given an itinerary of things he must do so the swap could be completed,
supplied by traveling secretary Frank Coppenbarger.
Manuel assisted with the rouse by offering advice, since he made
a career in the Far East. Kendrick’s agent, Joe Urbon, who also
represents Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda, gets credit by confirming the
deal when he received the stunned phone call from his client.
The media (who were clued in) played a part as well, asking
Kendrick questions about being traded halfway around the world. The
shell-shocked 23-year-old stammered through most of his answers, not
knowing what to say.”
“Do they have good food in Japan?” Kendrick asked reporters, as
the first words out of his mouth. “I don’t know what to think right
now. I guess it’s going to be a whole new chapter, huh?”
Eventually, as a crowd gathered to watch the proceedings, the joke’s originator, Brett Myers, chimed in, “You’ve been punk’d.”
Breathing a huge sigh of relief, Kendrick said, “I’ve never been
so happy. Seriously. Wow. I was not going on that flight in the
morning.”
The Phillies’ front office has stated that they are done making
major deals until spring training starts, though that doesn’t exclude a
signing of someone like Kyle Lohse or Kris Benson. The only thing left
to complete then is signing Ryan Howard to some kind of a deal, as
Howard is arbitration-eligible for the first time in his brief career.
The Phillies and their Ruthian first baseman exchanged figures
recently and were $3 million away from each other: the Phils offered
him $7 million; Howard wanted $10 million. Should this be settled by an
arbitrator, there’s little doubt the Phillies would win, as $10 million
for a first-time arbitration-eligible player is unprecedented (as a
comparison, Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million in his first year of
arbitration eligibility).
Before last season, however, Howard and the Phillies were at odds.
The author of the Phillies’ franchise single-season home run record
wanted a long-term deal. Instead, the Phillies gave him a one-year deal
worth $900,000. Howard was disappointed, though it tied the record,
held along with Albert Pujols, for the highest base salary for a
non-arbitration-eligible player. When the deal was completed, Howard
said:
It’s a little frustrating and a little disappointing
that we didn’t get it done, but that’s the business aspect. Now you use
it as a starting point. It’s over. Now you go out and play.
Should the Phillies give him a long-term deal now? They have control
of him until after the 2011 season and can go year-to-year with him in
arbitration until then. Let’s look at some possibilities.
The Phillies sign Howard to a large long-term deal worth $90 million over the next six seasons.
The Phillies now have control of Howard until after his age 33
season in 2013, when he would undoubtedly be in decline. For those six
years, the Phillies wouldn’t have to worry about drafting a first
baseman and would have an almost-definite above-average offense, since
they also have Chase Utley locked up until after the ‘13 season.
Adrian Cardenas, one of the Phillies’ top prospects, then becomes
valuable to the Phillies in two ways: they can try him out as a
potential third baseman (or perhaps an outfielder), or they can
continue grooming him as a second baseman and use him as trade bait,
since he’s road-blocked by Utley at his natural position.
By the time Howard’s contract is nearing its end, his annual salary
will likely look like a bargain, given inflation. This benefits the
Phillies two-fold: the relative cheapness gives them probable cap space
to add players and it increases Howard’s trade value.
As for ‘08, the Phillies will have little cap room to make another
signing (i.e. Lohse) or an in-season move unless it involved shedding
salary (perhaps that of Pat Burrell?).
The Phillies sign Howard to a back-loaded four-year, $65 million deal.
With this contract, Howard averages over $16 million per season, so
he’s definitely being fairly compensated when you compare it to what
he’d make in arbitration. Backloading the contract allows the Phillies
flexibility in the immediate future, so they can still sign a player
like Kyle Lohse to round out the starting rotation while still ensuring
themselves that the mainstay in their offense is happy about his tenure
in Philadelphia and doesn’t demand to be traded.
When Howard is reaching the end of this four-year deal and is
destined for free agency, the Phillies may want to consider trading
Howard and moving Chase Utley over to first base. This is feasible only
if Adrian Cardenas makes significant progress in the Minor Leagues,
another impact second baseman is drafted and climbs the ranks quickly,
or the Phillies sign another good second baseman.
Howard’s deal will run out two years before Utley’s, so that means
that unlike the hypothetical six-year deal, the Phillies won’t be left
with having to deal with the simultaneous contracts of their two best
players. The Phillies can deal Howard without fearing that their
offense will collapse and won't have enough talent to contend.
The Phillies go year-to-year with Ryan Howard until after the 2011 season.
This is a dangerous way to go, as it will all but guarantee that
Howard will not be wearing a Phillies uniform in 2012. However, the
Phillies would end up getting a bargain and paying market value for a
top-tier first baseman, allowing them the financial flexibility to
round out the roster and give them the best chance to make a run at the
World Series. The Phillies are, if nothing else, a team built for the
immediate future.
Towards 2011, the Phillies could shop Howard around similar to how
the Twins are shopping Johan Santana. Teams would likely overpay for a
top-five offensive juggernaut (assuming Howard averages a 130 or so
OPS+) both in terms of players given up and the amount of Howard’s
remaining contract taken. Then the Phillies could move Utley to first
or shop for another first baseman in the off-season.
So, what should the Phillies do? The Good Phight analyzed how players most similar to Howard performed in their same-age seasons and concluded:
On balance, I think this data suggests that Howard
is a solid bet to deliver very good to excellent production over at
least the next 4-5 seasons.
“Very good” and “excellent” are ambiguous, perhaps intentionally so.
Either way, I’ll take “very good to excellent production” with a
backloaded four-year, $65-ish million deal for Howard. After ‘11,
either deal him or if he’s still productive as his career wanes in his
mid-30’s, maybe he’ll want to sign another lighter contract for the
Phillies.
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Crashburn Alley is a fusion of the phrase "crash and burn" with Ashburn Alley, which is beyond the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park. You can read more about Crashburn Alley here.>
I'm a diehard Phillies fan who is still reeling from the 1993 World Series and Joe Carter's three-run homerun in Game 6.
The
game was originally slated for a 7:10 start, but was delayed more than
an hour and a half due to rain (those of us in the Philly area were
treated to some videos reliving the 1980 season). Nevertheless, the
Phillies’ offense was on, as Chase Utley hit two home runs and drove in
three runs, and Pat Burrell hit a first-inning two-run homer as well.
