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A CALL FOR RESEARCH

Study Shows Those Who Buy 3 Or More Pairs Of Sneakers Annually Are Natural Leaders

It’s been said you can tell a lot about a person by her shoes. And now, as CBS 2’s Vince Gerasole reports, shoes may also say something about who takes the lead in a crisis and who follows in another’s footsteps.

New research suggests those buying three pairs of sneakers a year are more likely to be walking in the shoes of a serious leader.

We must know how many pairs of shoes Derek Jeter and Aaron Rowand buy per year!

It is only when we get a hold of these figures that we can take Sabermetric research seriously. Seriously, think of SPARP — Shoes Purchased Above Replacement Player and its partner, LQ — Leadership Quotient. What is being divided, I don’t know, but until then, you calculator nerds continue holding down the couch springs in your mothers’ basements.

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RYAN HOWARD'S DAYS IN PHILLY: NUMBERED?

ESPN's Jayson Stark describes the Ryan Howard situation in Philly:

For one thing, the two sides haven't spent 10 seconds talking about a deal since the arbitration hearing. For another, Howard and agent Casey Close continue to position him as an unprecedented player, who therefore deserves an unprecedented contract.

It shouldn't be surprising that Howard is going to ask for so much money. He's been a premier offensive threat in all of baseball since he won the NL MVP in 2005. However, if Stark's description of Howard's desires -- "an unprecented contract" -- are true, then it really is time to start thinking about moving him. Not this year, and not next year, but perhaps at the trading deadline in 2010.

The Phillies have control of Howard until after the 2011 season, so they can choose to continue to go year-to-year with him and pay him according to precedents. Even if the Phillies are forced to pay him something like $18 million in 2010, this would still be reasonable as opposed to locking up the slugger -- who will be 30 at the start of the 2010 season -- long-term for "unprecedented" big bucks.

Howard isn't truly an unprecedented player. He's a power-hitting first baseman with below-average defense, a weight issue that will always have a chance of recurring with a build like Howard's, and inconsistent mechanics (compared to 2005 and '06, he didn't use left field nearly as much in '07, for instance).

He does have great upside, but he's not some legendary player. He'll hit 45+ HR and drive in 125+ easily, put up a 1.000-ish OPS year in and year out, and draw about 70 unintentional walks every season. Players that productive are not a dime a dozen, but also not productive enough to warrant an "unprecedented contract."

The Phillies should let some other team burden themselves with such a contract. Sell Howard while he's still valued high. Keep him through his prime years (late 20's) and dispatch of him and his burdensome salary demands immediately afterward. Without a stroke of genius and/or luck, they will not replace his production but they can make some creative moves (like moving Chase Utley to first base and calling up Adrian Cardenas to play second base).

Should the Phils trade Howard, they could ask for a king's ransom and likely get it. I'm talking comparable to, or even better than what the Twins got for Johan Santana. If the trade is done right, the Phillies can set up their Minor League system for years to come while still keeping a highly competitive MLB roster. However, the problem is that when it comes to trading star players, the Phillies always botch it:

• July 26, 2000: Curt Schilling is traded by the Philadelphia Phillies to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee, and Vicente Padilla.
• July 29, 2002: Scott Rolen is traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Doug Nickle and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith.
• July 30, 2006: Bobby Abreu is traded by the Philadelphia Phillies with Cory Lidle to the New York Yankees for Matt Smith, C.J. Henry, Carlos Monasterios, and Jesus Sanchez.

In the Schilling deal, the Phillies got 1.5 league-average seasons from Daal, a half-season of slightly above league-average pitching from Figueroa, and 2.5 below-average seasons from Lee. Padilla is the only player in the deal that both stayed with the Phillies long enough to make it worthwhile, and be productive as well.

With the Rolen trade, Smith pitched less than 95 innings in three and a half seasons for the Phillies' Minor League teams, and never made it to the Majors due to injuries. Timlin gave the Phils a half-season of league-average relief pitching. Polanco, as we all know, was a decent second and third baseman in his two and a half seasons in Philly.

The Abreu deal is clearly the biggest bust of all, but it was more of a salary dump than anything. None of the players acquired are likely to ever help the Phillies at the Major League level. Matt Smith had reconstructive surgery on his left elbow last season and it's unlikely he'll be able to help the Phillies out again. He did perform very well for the Phils in '06 after he was traded, but he pitched a grand total of four Major League innings in '07. Henry is a huge bust of a prospect. He's never been above the A level, but his OPS has gone from .714 in '05 to .692 in '06 all the way to .560 last season. Monasterios, a pitcher, and Sanchez, a catcher, aren't regarded very highly and neither are likely to make the Majors.

With Pat Gillick retiring from his position as GM of the Phillies at the end of the season, it becomes crucial that a capable mind is hired. The likely choice will be Ruben Amaro, Jr., who has been a typical yes-man who tows the party line. He's currently the Assistant GM to Gillick, handling Q & A with the media about acquisitions, injuries, and the like. There's no doubt that the Phillies' ownership highly prefers Amaro over everyone else.

Mike Arbuckle is the Phillies' Assistant General Manager, Scouting and Player Development, and is #2 on the totem pole behind Amaro for the soon-to-be vacant GM job. Like Amaro, he's never been one to dance to a different drumbeat and he's been loyal to the organization. Frankly, since he has so much experience evaluating players, he'd be more reliable than Amaro to make a trade of Ryan Howard.

Looking outside the box for a moment, Brian Cashman's contract is up after the '08 season. When Ed Wade was fired after the '05 season, Cashman was one of the candidates the Phillies had on their list before they decided to go with Gillick, and he is no stranger to a big trade -- remember Alfonso Soriano being sent to the Texas Rangers for Alex Rodriguez?

While the Phillies' upper management may be coming to the realization that Howard's days in Philly are numbered, they can still thoroughly research Gillick's potential successors and successfully set themselves up for a franchise-defining trade in 2010.

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YOU DID ASK FOR IT, KEN

I’m usually reluctant to criticize anything Ken Rosenthal writes because it’s usually well-researched and well-defended, unlike a lot of what’s published in newspapers and magazines to be read by millions countrywide. Mr. Rosenthal, however, has written an article defending his selection of the Braves as 2008’s World Series selection waving the red flag at the bull that is the Sabermetric community (not to imply that said community thinks in lockstep).

He starts off his article waving a raw steak just outside the cage where it can’t be reached:

Bloggers, it’s your lucky day.

Not that you ever need prompting to rip apart the latest ill-informed splattering from the mainstream media, but here’s an invitation on a gold-engraved, all-but-autographed platter:

I feel like I really want to punch him*, but he’s begging for it so much that I don’t want to give him the satisfaction.

* I’m actually a pacifist and likely don’t have that great of a punch.

Embarrassing as it is to admit, my annual column predicting which team will win the World Series often defies sabermetric orthodoxy, not to mention conventional logic. Sort of like baseball itself.

The way Rosenthal writes this, it’s like he’s proud of writing stuff that defies logic. “I know conventional logic says that if you throw something up in the air, gravity will bring it back down, but I think that’s balderdash.”

Statistical analysis is an invaluable tool; that discussion is over. But we’ve gotten to the point where everyone from the casual fantasy player to the shrewdest GM wants to know the end of the story before Chapter One is written.

Mercifully, that’s not how the game works.

Well, Ken, I don’t think anyone with a working knowledge of Sabermetrics is using them like a crystal ball. Humans, sadly, have this limitation where they can’t see into the future and put all their money into Bear Stearns.

I often liken traditional statistics and Sabermetrics to different prescriptions of your eye-enhancement of choice (well, are you a glasses person or a contacts person?). Traditional statistics like batting average, RBI, runs scored, won-lost records, saves, etc. all provide a portion of the picture, but not a clear one. To make an analogy to the analogy, traditional statistics are a television circa 1985 with the bunny-eared antenna. Sabermetrics provide a clearer picture, like an HDTV circa 2008. It’s not perfect by any means, but it’s the best we have right now and incredibly useful — they provide an amazingly lifelike picture.

It seems almost as if Kenny is discrediting Sabermetrics for not predicting the future correctly 100% of the time. That’s impossible, for obvious reasons. But they come close relative to the other options we have (guessing, rolling dice). After the 2007 regular season ended, I made an Excel file comparing the results with PECOTA’s pre-season projections and I found that the number of games between PECOTA and reality was…

• 0 games: 2 teams, 6.7% (both Chicago teams, oddly enough)
• 1-5 games: 17 teams, 56.7% (ARI, ATL, BAL, BOS, CIN, DET, KC, LAD, MIL, NYM, NYY, PHI, SD, STL, TEX, TOR, WAS)
• 6-10 games: 8 teams, 26.7% (CLE, COL, FLA, HOU, LAA, OAK, PIT, SF)
• 11+ games: 3 teams, 10% (MIN, SEA, TB)

You can download the spreadsheet here, if you’d like.

I don’t know how well PECOTA fared in previous years, but its performance in ‘07 is impressive: it foresaw the dreadful decline of the White Sox, and the return to Earth of the Tigers, for instance.

So, Ken’s point that you can’t predict the future is valid, but it’s not valid without crediting how much more accurate the predictions can be with the use of Sabermetrics.

The 2005 White Sox, ‘06 Cardinals and ‘07 Rockies were among the recent World Series clubs that defied the supposed experts, myself included. Some other team will do the same this season, reminding us again that baseball’s unpredictability is part of what makes the game so much fun.

The paradoxy of saying that baseball is unpredictable and then predicting that a team will defy predictions aside… saying that a team will defy predictions to discredit those predictions doesn’t mean much. It’s like using a fortune teller to place all your bets for a week of NFL games, and you get the first 14 games right, and rake in a ton of money. As you sit and watch the Monday Night game, your fortune teller errs and the 49ers somehow beat the Patriots. Despite the fact that the teller has selected 93% of the games correctly* you decide to dwell on the one mistake and throw the baby out with the bath water.

* Obviously, that scenario is entirely facetious. Do not use fortune tellers to help you in your NFL get rich quick scheme.

Bloggers, man your keyboards!

My Spidey Sense is tingling, and I sense derisiveness from Mr. Rosenthal.

My choice to win it all is the Braves.

That’s absolutely fine. I await to see how you back it up with facts.

As the accompanying sidebar suggests, I’ve been largely unsuccessful with my pre-season selections over the years.

An ad hominem on yourself? Unprecedented!

But then, who hasn’t?

PECOTA and other Sabermetric-aided predictions.

The proper time to write a predictions column is actually Aug. 1 or even Sept. 1, after teams adjust their rosters through trades.

There’s no “proper time” to make predictions. A prediction is saying, “Based on the information available, I think that [insert premonition].”

I think what Kenny was trying to get at is that your predictions can be more accurate if you wait a long time to see how things unfold. Thanks.

But such a late analysis would be a copout, and even then, there would be a decent chance of looking like an ####.

Amateur psychoanalysis here, but it seems like Rosenthal is preoccupied with “looking like an ####.”

In my NCAA bracket, I had Duke getting to the Elite Eight. I’m such an #### for thinking that. But other than that, all four of my Final Four teams were alive up until Wisconsin lost to Davidson a few minutes ago. If you’re making a lot of predictions, you’re going to end up getting some of them wrong, and you’re going to end up looking like an #### on some picks. Bob Knight picked Pittsburgh to win it all, and they lost in the second round. He looks like an #### but it doesn’t discredit him from ever coaching again or making more predictions.

Grow a pair, Ken, make some predictions and tell us your reasoning behind it. At least if you get it wrong, you can feel good about getting it wrong. Why do I feel like my guidance counselor?

Few imagined last Sept. 1 that the Rockies would make the playoffs and the Mets would not.

Because people lack access to a time portal.

Anyway, here are my general rules for a preseason forecast, knowing that Eliot Spitzer stands a greater chance of being president in 2012 than I do of nailing one of these suckers outright:

An Eliot Spitzer joke. Ken is topical!

And he’s sel####eprecating. Me likey.

Never pick the Red Sox.

Never pick the Yankees.

Why? Because they’re good teams? Because they have high payrolls? Why would you not pick these teams to succeed? I mean, if you are scared about looking like an ####, it seems like you’d want to go with the obvious picks.

Never pick a National League team unless under the influence of imagination-enhancing drugs.

Why? This isn’t the NBA — the National League isn’t the Eastern Conference and the American League isn’t the Western Conference. The best in the NL can compete with the best in the AL.

The Red Sox, winners of two of the last four World Series, probably are the best team on paper. But picking them is like picking the smartest kid in class to finish with the highest SAT.

It’s highly likely that your pick will end up correct, making you look like a genius instead of an ####?

Besides, the only way for a team to win back-to-back Series is to keep its pitching intact through three postseason rounds for two straight years. Hard to do.

It’s not the only way; it’s a way, albeit a highly good way. According to this logic, last year’s Red Sox could swap Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, et. al. with Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, etc. and not increase its chances of winning it all, since their pitching staff is noticeably different.

The Yankees, who have not won the Series since 2000, almost could qualify as a surprise team at this point — almost.

It’s just my own subjective observations, but it seems like a lot in the media are picking the Yankees to make the playoffs. Personally, I have them missing out because I think they are depending too heavily on unproven arms, but I would not be surprised if they won the AL East. They have an offense that will match the heavily-lauded Tigers.

They are a surprise team in that they’re not currently better than the Red Sox or either of the Indians and Tigers, leaving them second in the Wild Card chase at best.

But now that they’re trying to incorporate younger, less expensive players, the Yankees are like the rich kid in the neighborhood who tries to act cool by dressing down. Sorry, the rich kid is still a rich kid — and with dubious pitching, I might add.

These are two sentences that are ripe for amateur psychoanalysis, but I’ll restrain myself for now.

The analogy falls apart because the Yankees aren’t using young pitchers to fit in with the crowd; they’re doing so out of necessity. A better analogy would be the rich kid having all this stuff because his parents own Bear Stearns and then having to find clothing at Goodwill because of, well, you know.

Actually, the NL has produced three of the past seven World Series champions — the ‘01 Diamondbacks, the ‘03 Marlins and the ‘06 Cardinals.Frankly, I’m sensing another NL breakthrough […]

That’s it! Write it down! Ken’s feelin’ it, and he’s feelin’ an NL team winning it all! Dump your Bear Stearns stock and put it in KenRo Inc.

[…] and not simply because two of the best pitchers in the AL, Johan Santana and Dan Haren, were traded to NL clubs. None of the AL contenders looks as dominant as the ‘07 Red Sox; I can’t quantify it, but the disparity between the top teams in each league might not be as great in years past.

The ‘08 Red Sox don’t look as dominant? I guess if you think losing Curt Schilling for a half-season (potentially more) is damning. It’s a loss, no doubt, but he’s 41 and not anywhere near as dominant as he used to be. Call me crazy, but I think this year’s rotation of Beckett/Matsuzaka/Lester/Buchholz/Wakefield will be nearly as good as last year’s Beckett/Schilling/Matsuzaka/Wakefield/Tavarez-Lest
er.

Some (not I) would argue that this year’s Tigers look dominant with the addition of Miguel Cabrera. Some (not I) would also argue that this year’s Mariners look dominant with the acquisition of Erik Bedard.

The Indians haven’t changed much and C.C. Sabathia is in a contract year.

The Braves have constructed an AL-type offense.

They have a DH? They are refusing to bunt with their pitchers?

Their bullpen will get a boost if lefty Mike Gonzalez returns from elbow-ligament transplant surgery at mid-season.

That’s great, but what are they going to do in the meantime?

Their rotation features enough options to absorb ineffectiveness and/or injury […]

John Smoltz will start the season on the disabled list and is nearing age 41. Tom Glavine is 42 and his ‘07 season was about as bad as his ‘03 season (his first with the Mets). Mike Hampton hasn’t pitched in two years and is 35.

Really, the only sure thing is Tim Hudson.

I’m not saying the Braves will again trade for this year’s Mark Teixeira, but they should be able to get the piece or pieces they need.

How do you know what they’ll need? So far, you’ve said that they won’t really need any starting pitching (”enough options”) or bullpen arms (”boost from Mike Gonzalez”), and the Braves are set at catcher, first base, second base, third base, center field, and right field. So, barring catastrophic injuries, the Braves would be trading for a shortstop or left fielder. Otherwise, they’re not really trading for anyone of consequence.

Yet, the Braves aren’t the only legitimate NL threat.

Really? Who’da thunk it?

The Cubs could be a World Series team if they add Brian Roberts.

They won’t:

Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail told reporters in Ft. Lauderdale Wednesday that a Brian Roberts deal with the Cubs is off the table.

“We worked at it this long and we don’t have deal,” MacPhail said. “There’s other sides characterizing it as an impasse. You make the judgment.”

The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if their run prevention reasonably complements their run production.

Translation: The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if they score more runs than their opponents.

These observations are reaching John Madden levels.

The Diamondbacks’ young position players should improve offensively, and the Dodgers are just too talented to ignore.

“Guys, who are you all picking to win the NL West?”

“D-backs.”

“Rockies.”

“D-Backs.”

“D-Backs.”

“Rockies.”

“Agh! I can’t take it anymore! The Dodgers! The Dodgers!” (Falls on floor, crying) “They’re too talented!”

Also under consideration: The Mets, who must contend with age and injury concerns, and the defending champion Rockies, whose rotation is a bit of a wild card.

The Rockies’ rotation was a wild card last season and they went to the World Series.

Mostly healthy last season, the Sox already are without Curt Schilling and could start the season without Josh Beckett. Daisuke Matsuzaka’s ‘07 load — he averaged more pitches per start than any major-league pitcher — might be another warning sign.

Beckett is shooting for April 6. Unless you think the post-season hopes of the Red Sox will be made or broken by one game, this isn’t really a huge issue.

Will Hideki Okajima be as dominant a reliever this season?

He sure looked dominant last season.

Will Manny Delcarmen emerge as a legitimate late-inning weapon?

44 IP, 1.023 WHIP, 232 ERA+, 41 K, 17 BB in ‘07. Looks good to me. All of the projections besides CHONE have him finishing the season with a sub-4.00 ERA and all of them have him pitching 50+ innings.

It’s also difficult to imagine their top three relievers — Joe Borowski, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez — being as good again.

“Ken, we think Borowski, Betancourt, and Perez are going to be good in ‘08, but before we publish it, we wanted to check with you. Can you see them being good?”

Ken: (Closes his eyes, grits his teeth, and tries to imagine what ‘08 will look like for those three) I see… Abraham Nunez hitting 20 HR, and unicorns, and Adam Eaton winning the Cy Young. But I’m just not seeing those three being nearly as good as they were in ‘07. Sorry, guys.”

Borowski wasn’t good last season, by the way. It’s a great illustration of why the save statistic is so flawed. He had 45 saves last season, but he had a 5.07 ERA and a 1.431 WHIP in nearly 66 innings.

On the other hand, Rafael Betancourt has been dominant in each of the past five seasons. He had a 312 ERA+ last season.

Rafael Perez was almost as dominant as Betancourt last season, but he’s only had one full season in the Majors and it is reasonable to expect a decline from him.

A baseball season amounts to 162 episodes of 30 different reality shows.

Why is this comparison even necessary?

Those who think they can figure out the scripts in advance are kidding themselves.

I have a few friends who are very into Rock of Love 2. They have predicted with amazing accuracy which girl is going to get the boot. Why can they do this? They notice how they interact with Bret Michaels, they pay attention to body language and the intricacies of the conversations.*

Similarly, if you do your research, you can be accurate in your predictions.

* This will be the one and only time I will ever mention Rock of Love.

The stats reveal trend lines and tendencies, but in the end the game is played by human beings.

Played by human beings who create those trend lines and tendencies.

I like the Braves … I think.

Bloggers, fire away.

Hope you liked it, Kenny.

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CRASHBURN ALLEY 2008 MLB PREDICTIONS

In my ever-increasing genius, I have the great idea of not only making predictions, but recording them on a medium where others can check back later and ridicule me. If you haven’t seen them yet, I put my NCAA bracket up for public view here (note: I did make a couple changes to it a couple hours before the first game; I went 14-for-16 yesterday). Now I’m going to put up my 2008 MLB prognostications.

Let’s start with the awards.

Most Valuable Player

AL: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees

A-Rod’s an easy pick.

NL: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies

Utley completes the MVP trifecta in Philly.

Cy Young

AL: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

His ERA+ has gone down every season since ‘05, but he did pitch 225 innings with a 1.24 WHIP last season. That 120 ERA+ is bad by his standards, but great by others’. All of the projections expect some degree of improvement.

NL: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds

This is a sleeper pick of sorts, but he’s a legitimate contender for the Cy Young award. He’ll give you 230+ innings, walk very few, and strike out a lot (more than 8 K’s per 9 inning the last two seasons). Johan Santana is the sexy pick and you can’t go wrong with him, either.

Rookie of the Year

AL: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

Too obvious not to follow the pack on this one.

NL: Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins

While the Marlins are odds-on favorites to finish 5th in the division, Maybin will be a rare bright spot.

Manager of the Year

AL: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays

I wanted to go with Eric Wedge of the Cleveland Indians, but managers tend not to defend their titles here. Bobby Cox (’04 & ‘05) is the only manager to have done so since the award was created in 1983.

NL: Clint Hurdle, Colorado Rockies

The NL has a load of viable choices, but I think that leading the Rockies to their first division title in franchise history will seal the deal.

Comeback Player of the Year

AL: Kenny Rogers, Detroit Tigers

Kenny Rogers will successfully rebound from an injury-shortened ‘07 season to be one of the few Tigers pitchers who end up helping out (along with Justin Verlander, obviously).

NL: Mike Hampton, Atlanta Braves

As long as he doesn’t completely blow up, average production should earn him enough sympathy points (he hasn’t pitched since ‘05) to grab the award.

Home Run Leaders

AL: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees, 51

NL: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies, 54

Most Overrated

AL: Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners

The trade from Baltimore not only gave Bedard a new home, but lots of unnecessary praise as well. 2007 was really the only great season of Bedard’s career, even though he’d started 24+ games in each season since ‘04. His strikeout rate jumped from 7.9-ish from ‘04 to ‘06, to nearly 11 last season. I call aberration.

NL: Aaron Rowand, San Francisco Giants

Recipient of a five-year, $60 million deal from the Giants, Rowand goes into ‘08 with some high expectations. The fact is that he is only a slightly better-than-average player. His ‘04 and ‘07 season are similar in that they were both good (130 and 123 OPS+ respectively), but his ‘05 and ‘06 seasons are also similar in that they were both bad (93 and 86 OPS+ respectively). His defense is even overrated: he ranked 15th out of 17 qualified MLB CF in RZR last season).

Most Underrated

AL: Brian Bannister, Kansas City Royals

Granted, this is a tiny bit of a biased pick, since there was an article written by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports that revealed his appreciation for Sabermetrics. But in 165 innings last season, he allowed an average of only 1.2 baserunners per inning, and averaged less than two-and-a-half walks per 9 innings. Add to that his small allowance of home runs and you have a pitcher that a lot of people will be overlooking simply because he plays on a down-and-out team in Kansas City.

NL: Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies

Call it a homer pick, but I’ve been reading all off-season about his mental issues that have stemmed from that home run he gave up to Albert Pujols in Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS. To quote myself:

After that game against the Phillies on April 23 until the end of the season, Lidge pitched 60 and two-thirds innings, struck out 81, and put up a 2.82 ERA. He finished the season with a 131 ERA+ and a 1.254 WHIP, impressive statistics for a closer deemed mentally anguished.

He seems to have recovered fine from his second knee surgery of the off-season as well:

Lidge pitched in a minor league intrasquad game Thursday at Clearwater, Fla., retiring four of the five batters he faced with three strikeouts and a walk. The right-hander, who had arthroscopic knee surgery last month, looked sharp enough that he just might be available for the NL East champions on opening day.

“I felt great with everything from warming up to throwing in the game,” Lidge said. “There is nothing better than facing hitters and that was a lot of fun.”

Breakout Player

AL: Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles

With Bedard gone, Guthrie may be the de facto ace in the rotation. He’s game for it. Last season, in more than 175 innings, he put up a decent K-rate and a good walk rate, and allowed just over 1.2 baserunners per 9 innings.

NL: Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ethier has had a lot of hype, but hasn’t done anything spectacular in his 843 Major League at-bats. This is the year for him, and he’ll be a major player in bringing the Dodgers from a league-average offense to a top-five offense (that’s right, you heard it here first).

Surprise Team

AL: Tampa Bay Rays

Too easy.

NL: Atlanta Braves

A lot of people are picking the Reds in a very winnable division, but more people are overlooking the Atlanta Braves in favor of the Mets and Phillies.

Disappointing Team

AL: Toronto Blue Jays

I have the Cy Young coming from the Jays, but otherwise, they’re still going to disappoint. Mediocre offense and questionable pitching, as a lot of those who had success last year were young and you just can’t expect everyone to repeat. I expect a significant drop-off in pitching (you heard it here first, and now you know why I don’t get paid to make these predictions).

NL: Milwaukee Brewers

They will have an above-average offense, but that’s about it. Their starting rotation is scary bad, and their bullpen is relatively the same. Eric Gagne should be great for them so long as he stays healthy.

All right, let’s get to the Over/Unders.

Per Batter’s Box, here are the Vegas lines, followed by my predictions. A + next to my prediction means I’m taking the over, and a - means I’m taking the under.

Arizona 86.5
Atlanta 84.5
Baltimore 65.5
Boston 93.5
Chicago(NL) 87.5
Chicago(AL) 79.5
Cincinnati 79.5
Cleveland 88.5
Colorado 82.5
Detroit 93.5
Florida 68.5
Houston 72.5
Kansas City 71.5
Los Angeles(AL) 91.5
Los Angeles(NL) 87.5
Milwaukee 84.5
Minnesota 72.5
New York(NL) 93.5
New York(AL) 93.5
Oakland 73.5
Philadelphia 87.5
Pittsburgh 68.5
San Diego 84.5
San Francisco 71.5
Seattle 86.5
St Louis 78.5
Tampa Bay 73.5
Texas 74.5
Toronto 85.5
Washington 70.5

NL East

NYM: 94-68 +
PHI: 90-72 +
ATL: 84-78 -
WAS: 74-88 +
FLA: 71-91 +

NL Central

CHC: 87-75 -
MIL: 80-82 -
CIN: 75-87 -
HOU: 74-88 +
STL: 71-91 -
PIT: 66-96 -

NL West

COL: 91-71 +
ARI: 89-73 +
LAD: 87-75 -
SDP: 80-82 -
SFG: 68-94 -

——-

AL East

BOS: 92-70 -
NYY: 87-75 -
TOR: 80-82 -
TBR: 79-83 +
BAL: 67-95 +

AL Central

CLE: 94-68 +
DET: 92-70 -
MIN: 78-84 +
CHW: 75-87 -
KCR: 74-88 +

AL West

LAA: 90-72 -
SEA: 84-78 -
TEX: 81-81 +
OAK: 73-89 -

I’m almost 100% sure my win-loss totals add up to 2,430-2,430, but if you take the time to check it out, let me know if it doesn’t add up.

Now let’s move on to the playoffs.

American League

East: Boston Red Sox

Central: Cleveland Indians

West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Wild Card: Detroit Tigers

National League

East: New York Mets

Central: Chicago Cubs

West: Colorado Rockies

Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

Division Series

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Cleveland Indians: Cleveland advances in 4 games

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox: Boston advances in 3 games

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs: New York advances in 5 games

Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies: Colorado advances in 4 games

Championship Series

Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians: Cleveland advances in 6 games

Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets: Colorado advances in 5 games

World Series

Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Indians: Cleveland wins in 6 games

That’s it. Feel free to tell me why I’m wrong and post your own predictions.

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STADIUMS: WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL?

Call me a sourpuss, but I fail to see the importance of the hallowed grounds in baseball. When I was a kid, my uncle would tell me about how he’d been to Connie Mack Stadium, and that he’d been to Yankee Stadium, and that he’d been to Candlestick Park. I’d hear all of the lore of the players that took the field during his youth, and all of the memorable moments: the game-winning homers, the remarkable catches, the ninth-inning drama. But I was never impressed by it; the locale seemed to have little relation to the events that took place.

Going into the 2008 regular season, I’m being constantly reminded of this season being the last for the current Yankee Stadium, and that Wrigley Field could be renamed.

Knock ‘em down, I say. Knock all those old stadiums down.

We all have our personal reasons to be attached to a ballpark, but I will never understand why I should revere Connie Mack Stadium, or Yankee Stadium, or Fenway Park, or Wrigley Field, stadiums in which I’ve either never been or don’t have any emotional stock invested. Sure, I was sad when Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia was demolished in favor of Citizens Bank Park. I’ve been to many a game there and never had a bad time despite how unattractive, poorly maintained, and unsanitary it was. One of the best memories I have o####ame I attended at the Vet was Kevin Jordan’s pinch-hit grand slam against the Braves. But that’s all they are: personal memories, and they are certainly no reason to keep a pathetic excuse for a stadium alive. All things said, Veterans Stadium lived way longer than it should have.

I think Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park and Wrigley Field should all be demolished (assuming all of the logistics of doing so, and building new stadiums are in place).

Regarding Wrigley Field, I cite the Chicago Sun Times:

Wrigley is a baseball treasure that puts fans on top of the action. But its washrooms are the pits — and there aren’t enough of them. Concessions are mediocre. Concourses are so narrow you could play three innings in the time it sometimes takes to get out of the place.

And let’s not forget the infamous falling concrete of 2004. An overhaul — accomplished over several off-seasons, so the Cubs wouldn’t have to move out — would eliminate the need for the netting installed to catch falling debris after it happened three times in six weeks.

It’s unfair to lump the other stadiums in with Wrigley, since I doubt Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium have falling debris the way Wrigley does (or did, assuming they nullified that problem). But they’re all old, they’re all probably slightly behind technologically, and it’s just so more aesthetically pleasing just to watch a game at a newer stadium, even if it’s on TV. I’ve never ranked baseball stadiums by my personal favoritism, but I have no doubt that it’d be close to ordered chronologically.

To quickly delve into the pragmatic aspect of new stadiums, new parks for teams like the Red Sox and Cubs (the Yankees are moving into new digs after this season) would be excellent for their respective cities. New stadium construction would create more jobs in a recessing economy, generate more tourism, and generate more money for their franchises, which leads to the potential signing of big name free agents that can help bring a championship home, which leads to more fans in attendance, which leads to more concession and merchandise sales, which leads to more television advertisement and national television exposure, which all leads to more money for the city and for the franchise. It’s a big circle; Economics 101.

Fans don’t really think about that stuff when they wax poetic about old stadiums, though. Among other moments, fans think of Carlton Fisk’s home run in Game 6 of the 1975 World Series when they think of Fenway; they think of “The Sandberg Game” (June 23, 1984) when they think of Wrigley. They don’t think of C.C. Sabathia — who is the prime free agent pitcher after this season — with a Cubs logo sewn on his jersey in 2009, or a couple thousand people who are better able to feed their families because of the jobs created by the creation of a new ballpark.

Fans, for the most part, are hopelessly romantic (to use a tired cliche). Maybe there’s a genetic defect that I have that hasn’t been discovered yet, but I have never seen the need for sentimentalism. That fits in all areas of life: I think engagement and wedding rings are superfluous and inane traditions (probably part of why I don’t plan on getting married). I think the current fad with picture-taking is some kind of social scream of “I’m here; I’ve had an impact on other people — I’ve lived!” And I think that the romanticism of old baseball stadiums is, in the same vein, illogical, delusional, and in most cases, selfish.

I realize it’s borderline heresy to claim that I am an avid baseball fan and in the same breath denounce Fenway and Wrigley, and maybe that’s part of my defect as a human being. I just don’t see the big deal. I’d much rather spend three and a half hours and $60 at a game in a new, clean stadium with relatively state-of-the-art facilities than at a game at an old, ill-maintained stadium. Some of that is probably #### in with having been spoiled with Citizens Bank Park after many years of Veterans Stadium. The rest of it seems to be practical.

Maybe I’m just being a Negative Nancy in refusing to be immersed in the beauty of these old stadiums. Or maybe I’m just being realistic in realizing that Fenway Park’s seating is cramped and the green hue of the structure clashes unfavorably with the green of the outfield grass, the ivy on Wrigley Field’s brick outfield walls is unappealing (not to mention the bricks being dangerous), and the blue gradient of Yankee Stadium reeks of a Viagra misadventure. You tell me.